Hi Yellowjacket, thanks again.
I'm not sure why you're surprised I'm pursuing this line of thinking. The problem of induction is one of the primary outstanding problems in philosophy. It's not like I'm pulling it out of my butt.
"By that logic you're implying that we can't prove anything, because it all might just change at the last minute, and therefore science and observation are... fruitless?"
Precisely. I could not have described the situation of your worldview better.
"Yet the models we've constructed work, and we are able to make accurate real world predictions of future behavior based on these models."
We have been able to, yes. In the past. The question is, will they keep working. None of the laws we've discovered actually explains itself, or implies (without bare assumption) that it will continue to operate into the future.
"I am quite comfortable justifying this "assumption" as you call it, because observation dictates that the sun has risen every day,"
Yes, but why does that matter? Let me explain. Here is your reasoning:
Premise 1: The sun has always risen, every day.
Conclusion: Therefore, it will rise tomorrow.
There is a missing presmise 2 here:
Premise 2: Tomorrow will be like all the past days, at least as respects natural law.
Now, the question is, why do you accept premise 2? You might try the following (in fact, you basically have):
Premise 3: In the past, future days have been like past days.
But in order to get Premise 2 from Premise 3, you would need Premise 4:
Premise 4: Tomorrow will be like the past, at least as respects the future being like the past.
Where do you get premise 4?
Et cetera. It turns out there is nowhere you can go to ever actually justify premise 2 apart from just assuming it. All the things you try to adduce as evidence for it ("the sun has risen billions of times....", scientific law, etc.) in fact only even act as evidence for it if you make another unjustified assumption.
So now we're left to ask -- on your worldview, is this assumption somehow a priori likely? The answer: no. We have no reason to expect the universe to be lawful instead of lawless, given that (say you) there is no god, or we don't know anything about him.
"and the hard work of generations of very bright people have come up with some really damn good explanations for why this happens."
Well, first of all, it doesn't have anything to do with how smart the person is. What matters is the argument. The philosophers have been smart too, not just the scientists.
Second, scientists have never explained WHY scientific law holds at all. They couldn't possibly. They can explain things in terms of law only, and if they came up with a law that said "there has to be a law," based on observation, well... what's to keep that law from being broken?
No, scientists only explain some laws in terms of further laws. For example, first there were laws about how matter behaves, then laws about how atoms make up matter and behave, then laws about how subatomic particles behave, and then smaller particles still, etc. Always, they are just developing new laws. But why couldn't some electron just decided to charge straight for another electron and hold on for dear life, some day? A homochargical electron, if you will? This would (of course) violate all kinds of scientific laws, but you couldn't really give a metaphysical reason why it couldn't happen: you don't know why the electrons are following any laws in the first place.
And the point is, maybe the universe is actually random, and it's just appeared to follow laws for awhile. The vast majority of possible universes, in some sense, fall into this category. For example, say you toss a coin a hundred billion times. Somewhere along the way in there you might get a few thousand heads in a row. You might even get lucky and get the first billion all heads. That doesn't mean you're going to get heads from then on. It could be all random from thenceforth.
"Of course we would abjectly fail at modeling the behavior of the future if it is contrary to what the past and the paradigms we have in place dictate. However, as our data pool increases, and time passes, and bright minds get to work, we would be able to come up with a new model to explain this observable event."
As I already pointed out, this is false if the new paradigm (and the real paradigm) just happened to be completely lawless. This would have nothing to do with the brightness of the minds, and everything to do with the lack of any law to model. Going back to the coin toss situation -- it's a well studied problem, and it turns out it is almost guaranteed to be completely impossible to write down any formula or algorithm to describe the outcome of the hundred billion coin tosses. This is not a failure of intelligence -- THERE IS NO sequence of letters you could write down that would correctly predict the outcome of the coin tosses.
If the universe is that random, then there would just be no point. Of course, quite possibly we would no longer exist anymore, but I digress.
(The technical subject I refer to above is Kolmogorov complexity: since there are 2^100000000000 possible strings of heads and tails, but only, say, ~2^100000 of them can be described by 100,000 characters or less (assuming 32 characters, for convenience), there's only at best a 1 in 2^1000000 chance of being able to describe a random one so. This gets worse as you go up).
"I feel I've offered a pretty competent explanation for why it will."
I fear you haven't even grasped the problem yet, much less offered an explanation.
Again, let me repeat: the past CANNOT POSSIBLY serve as evidence for induction.
Here's why. Suppose Joe drives a red car and Frank a blue one. One day, you come downstairs and your mother says, "Somebody came by for you and I thought you were out -- sorry." "Who was it?" you say. "Oh, it was Frank or Joe" (she says). "I can't remember -- they look so much alike."
Now, you noticed a blue car in the driveway. This thereby serves as some evidence that it was Frank.
Now rerun the story, but suppose Frank and Joe both drive blue cars -- in fact, identical blue cars. The fact that you saw a blue car in the driveway no longer serves as any evidence for one over the other.
OK, what does this have to do with anything? Well, the universe has been regular up till now, right? Imagine all the possible universes that are regular up till now: one of them goes right on being regular, others start behaving in weird, wild, fantastic ways. Some are totally random and unpredictable altogether (most -- see above).
The point is, if you are just trying to figure out which one will happen from now on, it is of no help to point to the past: they are all the same in the past. All regular. All identical. All the same as ours.
So the question is -- on what basis do you believe that the right one is the one that keeps on going, being regular?
As for my last point, it's not a very complicated one. If one believes in the God of the Bible, it's not hard to explain how we know that the universe will keep being regular, since God made it and told us it will go on being regular.
Regards.