CHANCES TO QUALIFY TO THE FINAL:

1 The Balkans (old SE Europe) 55.0%
2 California I (old San Diego) 54.9%
3 Iberia 48.1%
4 Texas 46.7%
5 Capital Region USA 45.4%
6 South America 42.1%
7 Southeast USA 38.1%
8 Ontario 37.7%
9 Britain 1 37.4%
10 Albion 34.8%
11 Toronto 33.6%
12 Pacific Northwest USA 28.4%
13 Northeast USA 27.7%
14 Australia 27.1%
15 California II (LA/SF) 25.8%
16 Mid-Atlantic USA 23.3%
17 Western Canada 21.1%
18 Western Europe 20.8%
19 Oklahoma 20.4%
20 Galicia (Spain) 15.9%
21 Asia-Pacific 15.6%

CHANCES OF WINNING THE CUP:

1 The Balkans (old SE Europe) 11.6%
2 California I (old San Diego) 11.3%
3 Iberia 8.8%
4 Texas 8.2%
5 Capital Region USA 7.9%
6 South America 6.8%
7 Southeast USA 5.6%
8 Ontario 5.4%
9 Britain 1 5.3%
10 Albion 4.5%
11 Toronto 4.2%
12 Pacific Northwest USA 3.1%
13 Northeast USA 2.9%
14 Australia 2.8%
15 California II (LA/SF) 2.5%
16 Mid-Atlantic USA 2.1%
17 Western Canada 1.7%
17 Western Europe 1.7%
19 Oklahoma 1.6%
20 Galicia (Spain) 0.9%
20 Asia-Pacific 0.9%

Are the finals chances just fraction of total group gr multiplied by 7/3? It seems like well balanced groups might keep a bit more of that percentage than others due to the higher likeliness of three teams doing well.

less than 1% for asia-pasific?
i guess we are the underdog of this tournament

Anyone want to put money on it ;)

Tempted by a reverse forecast on Britain 1 and Albion, but I always feel guilty taking other people's money :p

"Are the finals chances just fraction of total group gr multiplied by 7/3? "
yes. Don't know how else to do it. I'm a lawyer not a mathematician :P
also, chances of winning take into account the chances of each and every team getting into the finals. If I remember correctly the average gr of the final round will be somethng like 238.7. that along with the original chances of getting into the final are used to calculate the win chances.

I think group A is the hardest one, but probably it´s just because I am on it....

i am not a mathematician but i really like statistics,the gr is not taking into acount the learning curve of the relative new players (they may be good players at the board in real life but started playing here recently) a curve that is much more significant in new players than expert players,or some other things to be consider such as conectivity problems in the past wich may significantly afect the %,not pasworded and low pot games exposing the player to multi/meta damages,etc.

it could be nice to bet diplomacy points

Let's prove them that underdogs are strong dogs as you just pointed them out, Taos! :D

Putting 5 DipPoints on myself. I hear confidence is key.

meh - dunno if I should participate.

Does the WC have a Golden Boot award?

What might be interesting is to break it down game by game. Also, if you look at past ratings, I've had a pretty dry spell but was doing very well at one point, so I'm hoping that things will turn around in the Cup. I suspect they will, but you never know.

Oklahoma with 1.6% chance? I can believe it... But qualifying? Oh we're gonna make i alright... you can count your lucky stars we will!

I would imagine that it would be more accurate to compare something like GR squared since multiple games are played each round.

I suspect that the countries one draws, rather than the players' GR, will have more of an effect on the outcomes. Last World Cup I drew Italy twice in a row, in gunboat, for example, and thar warn't nuthin' I could do to wriggle my little self off of the hook.

I'm wondering if there shouldn't be some rule allowing a player who draws the same country twice to force a cancel?

I can't break down the stats by game cause then it's too complicated. I would have to examine all draw possibilities and how all games interact to give a total chance of advancing or winning.

i like that golden boot idea. we totally will have one now

The Golden Clyde!

I like the golden boot idea with the caveat that, when someone from Toronto wins it, we call it something better. Like a Conn Smythe award.

The real World Cup has a fair play award too, which seems like something hilarious to give in Diplomacy.

i'd porbably give that to the team that had the most pathetic showing

A fair play (ish) award could work... After every game the seven nations could each vote for their favourite player, and whichever team wins the most votes gets awarded the Pyrite Halo. In terms of fairness, as in all games, perception is everything.

Whether it's worth the effort or not is another matter :p.