EoG Germany, "A painful lesson"
Game paramters:
Classic, full-press, WTA, 1.5 day phases, Anonymous, PW protected, 8 point buy in
Line-up, result in A'12
F: Tasnica (winner)
T: MrcsAurelius
I: dubmdell
R: LakersFan
G: redhouse1938 (organising player, I always try to find this out myself :) )
E: Tru Ninja
A: Diplomat33
Result: 1912 VICTORY for France
Pre-game
This was one of these games where several of the events that would later become determining for the future of the game was foreshadowed in a post by Austria:
(To: Global, from Austria) - Spring, 1901: !@#$! Austria again! You're kidding me, right. 6 times out of 11!?! REALLY!
Because earlier that same day D33 had publically asked why he was getting Austria all the time it was pretty clear he was Austria. I was a little unsettled. Austria and Germany can make a great central block with a lot of liberty on how far to go in their cooperation. The game was anonymous and D33 had effectively exposed himself, which lead to irritation of the other players and destabilized the center as a consequence.
But D33 gets bashed enough on this forum, just let me say that I believe it's best to reveal as little of one's personal identity as possible in an anonymous game (although I admit it matters less and less as the game progresses and the players find out who's who.)
Also, I'd made a mistake myself by allowing (and even inviting) players I'd earlier been in games and even in a strong alliance with. I didn't meta-game (I believe the game was investigated and my name was cleared) and if I did, it was because I was hoping rather /not/ to pursue on a previous alliance.
Spring 1901, Ganging up on the big guy
As I got Germany, and Tasnica - whom I'd allied with in another game - was France, we were forced to have some kind of interaction from the beginning. Given the strength of his opening message and the fact that Austria was destabilizing the board, I decided to ally with France. I immediately knew France was played by my former ally, as his style is precise, while also being very zen.
I believe I tried to make an ally of Turkey by helping him organize a coalition against Russia, also to take any English heat off myself.
I agreed with England to split the benefits of war. I believe it must have been my strategy to provoke a war with Russia by my anti-Russian diploming and northern opening rather than to spark a war myself.
Effectively, I was trying to form a triple alliance.
Autumn 1901, England, Y U No Move Army?
The relationship between me and England deteriorated, because I thought his attack on Russia was insufficiently committed and he was putting too much strain on his relationship with France and me by leaving his army on the British mainland and building a fleet in London.
He had a perfect opportunity to advance on Russia and didn't. He must have had his reasons not to do so, but I guess I saw it as a pretext to go to war with him.
No problem, I had six units by S02 :).
1902, a French-German Alliance
In this stage, I establish a closer cooperation with France that is founded on my irritation with England's rather limited war on Russia and the availability of a new French fleet in Brest.
The boarder in this period is secured by a series of bounces in Burgundy and one in Bel. Both of us proved reliable in our agreements and I guess this is the reason why we DMZ much of both our home territories later.
Now, I'd worked with German-French alliances before and made a comment on them in an earlier thread (I'll look it up) and I find them /extremely/ powerful. I was not too unhappy about the way the situation was developing.
Meanwhile in the south east (1901/1902)...
I'd noticed what could only be interpreted as an extremely nasty stab (this is a good thing too: when stabbing, you have to be extremely nasty about it, mild stabs generally don't work) against Austria by Turkey in A01, with Austria supporting Turkey into Greece bidding for Serbia while Turkey instead left Greece alone and moved to Ser as well.
The stab was followed by a Turkish attack on Bud, whereas Turkey had just helped Italy into Bud. Turkey also occupied Rum, which is usually Russian.
I concluded that a very manipulative and aggressive player was playing Turkey (both being good things in diplomacy, let there be no doubt about that) and I tried to organize the board against him now instead of against Russia, who seemed more interested in building long-term relationships. Again with the reasoning “as long as the others are ganging up on somebody else, that should somehow contribute to my safety”.
By A02, a Juggernaut under Turkish leadership, with Rum returning to Russia, had emerged from the complicated battlefields in the south east.
1903, Italy joins the alliance
As Austria is collapsing under the weight of the Juggernaut, I obtain help from Italy to take Vie. At first the army was sent to Austria to stabilize the country, hoping to turn Austria into a loyal and controllable ally, but once the army arrives the situation has deteriorated and I judge it best to simply take Vie. I feel no remorse stabbing Austria, as he didn't respect the anonimity in the beginning of the game. I believe this marks the beginning of a French-Italian-German alliance.
I remember from this period that I try to find a diplomatic solution for the war with England, but failed.
The failure to negotiate something productive with England, the cooperative attitude of France, Italy and myself to this Triple and a closely allied Juggernaut marked the constellation for the coming years, with the Triple gaining the upper hand by force of numbers and effective deal-making.
Roughly during this same period, I also start negotiations with Turkey about invading Russia. I insist that given Turkey's history of early stabs, it be him to assure I make some kind of profit first before returning the favor. He insists that I attack Italy if he helps me attack Russia.
Negotiations fail due to these two reasons, and due to the fact that I am sufficiently backed up by other powers. I simply decided to make the price for Turkey to buy my allegiance to be extremely high, so that I would be more than compensated when dissociating from Italy/France.
1904-1907, Progress
The Triple progresses, with the 1907 center division among us being France 10/ Germany 10/ Italy 6. Italy addressed this asymmetry and inquired as to my ambitions for the rest of the game, so I told him that I was probably going for the solo, finding it a feasible target and the three-way draw between the three of us being an option, but not one I was being very enthusiastic about.
Since the asymmetry in the alliance was so obvious, I judged it best to be honest about my intention to solo the game and that the alliance was for tactical rather than strategic purposes.
I told Italy that once I'd go for the solo, I would either stop talking to him or, more probably, send him a declaration of war, which I was honestly planning to do.
Italy appeared to want to pursue the alliance despite my noncommittal stance toward it, and I later learned that France also didn't offer Italy the prospect of a three-way draw.
During this period, England is being used to equilibrate the balance of SCs between France and myself. France, IMO, correctly pointed out that whereas he provides a lot of tactical support to the Triple, he is not directly gaining from it and England is the perfect area to settle the score (see the German attack on StP).
Although strategically and tactically France, Italy and me are cooperating very well during this period, I believe our diplomacies couldn't have been more different.
In 1904/1905, France explains his presence in Italy to Turkey as nothing more than a preambula to stab Italy mercilessly. Turkey is very displeased when he finds out this is not the case. I believe France is employing a similar line of communication to Russia on his presence in the North, although I'm not sure about this. Although France will stab me in 1908, I believe his stab comes much later than was agreed with Russia (and much earlier than I expected it).
I found France's diplomacy toward Turkey a little odd: he found himself in an effective alliance with me and Italy and lying about it appeared to be a waste of diplomatic credit. Also, during this period, I try to push France harder and harder to actually make the stab (or an attack) against Italy, because I find Italy to be a little too erratic; communications that should be sent three-ways arrive at my inbox much later than France's, he forgets a unit here and there when advancing a tactical plan, but also my intention to commit France south rather than north are the elements that prompted my attempts to provoke a war between France and Italy.
Meanwhile, Italy is preparing a plan that comes to complete fruition (to my surprise!) by the end of 1907. Turkey insisted to Italy that the time has come to dissociate himself from the Triple Alliance he finds himself in and to form a holdout or stalemate line with Turkey and Russia to protect him.
Italy has had some bad experiences with Turkey at this point (see my analysis of his 1902 play: I am not surprised) and decides to let Turkey set up his part of the stalemate line while mercilessly stabbing him.
With the relationships between Turkey and Italy already soured during the prior period, this was the event that made all future cooperation between them impossible, although at that moment I couldn't begin to imagine how deep the animosity was.
1908-1910, France prepares the solo, German decline
In the period leading to France's S08 stab (he invades the North Sea, which we had DMZed, and crushes Tyo whereas we'd agreed to land it on Vie), I'd opened my terrain wide up to him. I definitely should have seen his stab coming by his rather peculiar A07 build F Bre, although his decision not to build A Par was probably what comforted me. This, however, probably prompted me to move Swe-Den.
The opening of the Nth area by me, in combination with the soured Italian-Turkish relationship are, IMO, what determined the final outcome of this game. Although I believed I could convert the given situation in a multiple-nation draw with little effort, it appears impossible to convince Italy and Turkey to cooperate.
But it gets worse, not only will Italy and Turkey not cooperate, for some reason still unknown to me Italy decides to take the French side in our conflict and actually aids France in his efforts to send troops north.
I hope with this EoG to obtain a settling answer to this question, it being the largest mystery in a game I've ever encountered.
Worse still: not only does Italy help the nation that dissolved the alliance, he appears to be setting no price on his cooperation.
Whereas in A07, the France/Italy SC balance is still 10/6, by A10 it has widened to 14/5. I desperately try to explain that whatever Italy is doing, it's not getting him anywhere and although I'd never wronged Italy in the slightest, he aids France in a deadly campaign against my country.
Because of my extreme surprise with the developments on the board and Italy's tarnished relationship with Turkey, both of which suggesting the presence of various layers of diplomacy under the most superficial ones, part of the discussions that would normally be private now flow over to the public forum, in a large part provoked by myself: from 1907 I consistently try to establish board-wide conscience of the following mechanics:
1) It is clear France stabbed me, destroying one of my units that was in a collaboration with him earlier and penetrating a sea that is obviously a DMZed area.
2) If France desired any draw, it would have been a two-way draw with me, as I am similar in size and such a draw is very feasible, particularly given the French advantage of neighboring the junior partner in the alliance, allowing him the edge in such a two way-draw attempt.
3) One can infer from 2 and 3 that France is going for the solo.
I never expected a stab from France. Although my strategic positioning was inviting such a stab, I was counting on my diplomatic positioning (not having sold the alliance with France and Italy as the preambula for some extraordinary stab, but simply for what it was: an alliance with France and Italy) being iron-clad defense against a French stab and since we were so aware of the differences in our diplomacies, I thought he was thinking the same way.
To my surprise, the mechanics outlayed above were best understood by Russia (or at least he acted on them immediately) whom I was at war with and I converted my war with Russia in a very strong and loyal alliance, which is probably what caused France to take five more years to solo. I am pretty sure this is much longer than he expected.
Turkey, although less flexible in his tactical disponibility and strongly disagreeing with my interpretation of affairs, was however – from the looks of it – equally seriously committed to stopping the solo.
1911-1912, Death
I become frustrated with Italy's refusal to work with me and Turkey, and our relationships appear to become more and more personal. A part of me tries to accept the fact that it's not working and tries to turn the atmosphere on the board to the positive by trying some very corny jokes, another part tries to rationalize the situation and diplomes to a solution. (My apology for disrespecting the word “diplomacy” as a non-count noun).
The frustration becomes deeper when Italy keeps talking to me as though I am his ally and/or partner in this game, while since 1908 I considered myself to be in a very bitter war with him, due to his selfless aid to France in my disadvantage.
All my attempts to persuade Italy to take the side of those stopping the solo fail, and even an attempt to get Italy to assume neutrality by submitting only support hold orders until it becomes clear what the intentions of all other players was ultimately fails.
Part of the explanation that I receive is that since 1907, the relationship between Turkey and Italy is so soured, that he doesn't believe to be able to participate in any draw, which is why – feeling confronted by a hopeless choice between a survive and a defeat – he chooses full cooperation with France in exchange for a survive. France cunningly nurtures his despair. IMO a four center Italy has ample space to restore relationships and find some kind of benefit on the board, or at least to be the pursuit of that worth the effort. Going for a survive in such a situation is way too fatalistic for my taste.
Now, before I assign full blame of what happened in this stage to Italy, it was clear that Turkey did do some very nasty diploming with Italy in the beginning and was partly responsible for the depth of their disagreement. Turkey appeared rather crude and insensitive in his communication. However, it was clear that Turkey continued to adopt a /much/ more rational stance to the entire situation than Italy was and although not entirely dismissing Italy's view of things, nor his solution to it (a terrain transfer from Turkey to “neutral powers”) in this particular conflict I was largely (90%?) on Turkish side and am confident that was the right side to take, even though my intel was naturally limited.
Aftermath
During this game, I believe I learnt a crucial lesson for my future survival as a diplomacy. First of all, irrationality (or "incalculability") can play a role. Even though I dismissed the chance of France stabbing me for strategic reasons, he probably had good reason to do it because after all I'm not aware of every single thing that's being said on the board. Also, I had to take into account that the souring of other relationships could frustrate my efforts to organize an Anti-Leader Alliance even if, for strategic reasons, it was absolutely necessary, a fact that is obviously reflected in the final result of this game. This is a lesson I will definitely incorporate into my future games.