It will involve gunboats pre- the inclusion of gunboat as an option, sadly.

HAHA! Sweet sh*t I suck. Thanks for pointing that out, TGM ;)

0-37. At least most of those are ties ;)

can you include the draw percent, too (if you rerun it), so I don't look like a complete schmuck? ;)

i dislike that. 1-12. bull.

Ghost - thats exactly why I said since the change-over to the new version.

in essence I'm suggesting you include only the past 6 months or so... because if you go back 2 years, the level of play was not what it is today - so yes, solos' were easier to get.

More like 8 months since the change over last Nov/Dec, but I agree with Babak abotu starting with only games created since the changeover.

I am actually quite shocked to see these levels of solos... this is only WTA right?

and agreed w/ whomever said it - would love to see the draw % too - that would also be interesting =P

Ghost - I know in the past you said that the rate of solos in PPSC and WTA were pretty much the same... I have a hard to coming to grips with that - but with this list (even if it is for the entire life of the site) I guess that is feasible.

I would guess the reason why some of the percentages are so high is because of short phase games. I would bet that removing games with phase length under 24 hours we would see the result Babak predicts.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AseR-H0M2Ru3dHZfRmduYlBLeHdsZnl2Z3BpMjQyVEE&hl=en&output=html

I haven't played a lot of regular games here yet as a busy life at the moment doesn't give me a lot of time, but I have a decent win percentage, mostly on the back of gunboats. But I also have a larger defeat percentage ....

I do get the sense that gameplay here is very much influenced by both the ratings systems.

One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread is the idea that to win you have to able to risk defeat. If you play to ensure a draw first, and then "see what happens" the chance to go for the win may have already passed.

Personally, I know I am more likely to take a risk early in a game to get into a winning position even if makes an elimination more likely if it doesn't come off.

Okay, which games do you want to look-up win rates in?

Much closer to what I expected - a big zippo ;)

Thanks Ghost!

so the third list is full-press WTA games since the update with 24hr+ deadlines correct?

Seems close to what I expected... now we can go take a look at BoG's and Conquerer's solos to see if we cant deduce what made them more successful - maybe we can figure out how to get more solos ourselves ;)

Correct

Geeks and stats...I don't know :)

so to go back to the point of this thread...

are we any closer to understanding how we can solo more... so that hopefully we can all solo enough to go to 'the next level' and start including MM in our draws =P

It looks to me like playing WTA with turn lenghts long enough to minimise CDs and allow for lots of talking leads to a low(ish) win %age overall. So, don't play them ;)

I assume a lot of these are tournament games. Which makes it even harder to solo.

So the question is do we need a new ranking system? Because with only 2 wins (6%) on this spreadsheet, I really think I should not be ranked #14 on the GR, probably don't even deserve to be in the Top 100. maybe GR be a system for doing well on Draws Plus Wins, and then we need ranking another system for wins only?

I would fear that a ranking system that puts little stress on draws, or discounts them might lead to players purposely joining lower caliber games so they have a shot at soloing.

No, Crazyter. The most reliable column is the third one, and in that we can clearly see that your position is not really that bad; secondly, a draw isn't a bad result by any means; thirdly, games are meant to be zero-sum.

Babak, I assume you meant to say "stop" including me in your draws. ;-)

Crazyter, I can relate to how you feel, I am a bit embarrassed at my draw rate, makes me feel like I give up on a solo much too easily, though my solo rate is pretty decent, better than I would have tought.

Anyway, this thread got me thinking about my stats and boring play, so I looked back at my recent finished games. In my most recently finished 28 games (including PPSC) I have 5 wins, 22 draws and 1 elimination (damn you dave bishop!). Then, the 10 before that I had 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 eliminations (4 as Italy). I remember drawing Italy in 7 of 11 games (and I think 2 of the others were Austria) and getting a bit frustrated with being eliminated repeatedly, so I'm thinking that frustration resulted in more boring play ever since...

@ MM - dont know which comment =(

@ crazyter - nope. Draws are indeed good results deserving of accolades - its just that Solos are GREAT achievements ;) so I do think draws are good and we should not fall into the trap of defining only solos as 'good' results.

I wonder if the Dip Zine archives or Convention statistics or even judge or diplomaticcorps.com statistics can be compared to see what % of games end in solos in those other settings. This would almost be a masters thesis topic.

I kind of want to go back to Ghost's original post... about increasing your chances of a solo.

someoen (MM?) posted a theory that if you take a bigger risk in the mid-game, you have a bigger shot at the solo but have to be willing to take the bigger chance of also losing... but I have found that specially in situations where you have a unit past the stalemate line AND you are pretty darned big, you have even more of a shot at being stabbed or having an anti-you coalition formed...

i'm VERY curious what you all think would increase the likelyhood of getting that solo.