The other SoW 2 thread is alive!

http://phpdiplomacy.net/index.php?viewthread=417445#417445

wow djbent... amazing job. thank you so much... you have done a yeoman's job here and it is appreciated by all =P

I'm so glad so many people are getting great use out of the SoW set of games ;)

I can comment on SoW II since it has less players though I think I started off commenting on SoW I initially...

meanwhile - I will be taking a LONG trip starting in about 2 weeks and ending in mid-september... and I have a TON of planning to do for the trip as can be imagined... so my participation is going to fall off here... I will find a replacement player for myself though and let you all know in plenty of time when that happens....

comment on SoW II coming up.

[SoW II - official comment]

Turkey - a very lucky/good move on the part of Turkey who has managed to guarantee himself another year of survival at least here. but he is pretty much done this game =(

Russia - outguessed himself in the south and the EF make-up reflects failure in his diplomacy. he should have made solid friends with one of the two, and did not make the right offers. I presume the attempt was to buy off England. But any diplomatic failure in the west is more than made up for with his diplomatic success with Austria. he should be able to get at least one build this year and two if his enemies make bad moves or if he has some extraordinary diplomatic success. The AR alliance is a pretty strong one, and specially with Austria facing a new French threat, Russia will have the upper hand moving forward. but if EFG continues to stick together, then he will have slow going after his 10th dot. none-the-less, Russia is still the most dominant power in this game.

Austria - a very important strategic decision to side with Russia, but some less-then-perfect moves. bud to gal would have been far more effective than bud to vie. if Austria hopes to leave open his option for a solo, he MUST be building 2 fleets over the next two winters, and since he is unlikely to secure a build this season, he is falling behind that already. specially if France decides to prop up italy for the short-term. Austria will be able to get into the ionian which is powerful... but the fact that Russia has a fleet in Con will be a problem in 2-4 seasons... he must insist that russia move the fleet back into sev, and also to take Rum when Russia gets smy for a more equitable distribution of centers... the Rum/Bul-Sev/Con line can be held with only 4 units and is a very effective NAP line which also gives AH a good leg-up on Russia in the late-game... but right now, he is out of position to make such a thing work, and has to be more concerned with the unified EFG(I?).

Italy - very tenuous positon. unless R stabs A, or E/G stabs F, Italy is gone within 4 seasons. very likely to receive French support in the short-term. France might even forgo Tunis to move to TyS. and though this is going to be a HUGE problem for Italy next fall, he has no choice. without French help, in TyS, and Pie, he will be over-run in short order. He is lucky that russia is in NAO, so France can only afford to send one fleet south at this point. very weak strategic position - your only real tool is diplomacy and your goal is to create real discord between EF and AR. you have not allies at this point =(

France - very astute and forsighted decision to forgo an attack on England - but your position is not particularly strong as a result. you have no real growth options until next year, unless you decide to take Tunis - which is likely to help AH more than you. however, all three of E, I, and G will be indebted to you, so if you are able to cash in those chits wisely you may well find yourself in a dominant role soon.

Germany - I suspect much of the diplomatic energy came from France last turn, but you did well there. you may or may not lose a unit this year, and your fate is in the hands of Russian decision making. but at this point, you have a very weak position and are extremely dependent on goodwill from both F and E. your options are very limited and that is never a good thing. I would have liked to have seen a more active role for the unit in War last turn... holding is never a good idea... a move to Gal or even Lvn would have given you far greater leverage... since it was spring, you should have suspected Ukr would get covered...

England - wow. either a lucky break in that in France you have a player who can really see the board developing, OR you managed to be quite convincing diplomatically. either way - you now have a a 2nd life.. .use it wisely. you CAN grow this turn without stabbing an ally - figure out how. you have more than just breathing space- you actually have room to manouver - just make sure you dont get yourself cornered into a box again... make sure to be talking to Russia, he will be ready to concede many things to you at this point I would wager.

this is still a very dynamic game with Russia/France dominant in their ends of the map... and AE playing the role of junior partner. T is out for all intents and purposes, while GI both require some major shake-ups in the alliances to survive past 1905.

there is a lot of fight left in this game - make sure to be diploming with all the other players and finding opportunities to create options for yourself... specially the weaker powers.

Hi,
I'm interested in joining the School of War game as a student.

[SoW 4 - Official Commentary - Autumn 1902]

Well, a turn that goes to show that the commentators don't know as much as they think they do, and that looking at the board without knowing the diplomacy is only knowing half the story. Plus I wonder if the comments from ast turn had an impact. Anyway, sticking with the script we start with

Turkey - NMR. Presuming Darth comes back to join us, then the only impact is the build location is fixed. (As an aside, is it worth having someone lined up to pick up the CD if Darth doesn't log in?). But what now - Italy & Russia seem to be allied, so attacking one invites inavasion by the other. Turkey can turtle up and hope to split them, but is that really going to happen?

Russia - The moves in the north are good, and suggest at least an understanding with Germany - exiting Warsaw gives options for the build. In the south, the deal with Italy is now evident, and the follow on sensible. You have your build, and a precarious position has improved. Key decision is where to build (and what). F Sev or A War (I don't see any benefit to A Sev)

Italy - has Turkey not moving messed up your plans? I don't think so. The shuffle now becomes a bit clearer - I think I know where that army is going next. The French move back to MAO is good for you, and allows you to concentrate on the east, and there is no clear alliance against you. However, that German army coming down to visit must be a cause of concern, unless it was agreed. With no new units coming into play, the enxt year will see whether or not Italy can remain strong or your great start was the top of the game for you.

Germany - What a turn - two centres and a supportive juniior ally, seemingly improved relations to your east, and a strategically important unit over the stalemate line. Plus total flexibility in your builds. I'm not even going to guess what your plan is, but the units and lcoations will be interesting to see.

France - Another oops. Go back 1 year, and all you have achieved is to help Germany into Belgium (assuming England retreats to the Channel). This is a classic example of not sticking to a plan (with the fleet) and a basic error - A Por had to stay put to get you another unit. F Bre would have made your position much stonger. And once you moved to W Med, you had to go to Tun or Tyrr - if you were planning the stab on England all along, then MAO should have held - you could have been off Liverpool by now.

England - is is the commentators curse? You looked good in Spring, now you are very vulnerable to FGR - St P is no longer a gimme, and you have a decision to make - retreat to Eng, or disband and rebuild? France's error in leaving Portugal at least gives a chance, but you've gone from 1st to 4th in my book.

Austria - retreat or disband? Well, your retreat option is Galacia, which could give you options diplomatically - you border 4 SCs, and the heartlands of Russia and Germany are reachable in a year. People are going to want to know where that army is heading. You're not goign to win, but you still have a say.

Overall - Germany 1, Italy 2, Russia 3, England 4, Turkey 5 (assuming he wakes up), France 6, Austria 7

Yes this game is turning into a disaster for me. It is one happless event after another. Very frustrating. Really VERY frustrating.
I am enjoying reading the commentary. It will interesting to fill you all in when the game is finished with the view from "behind the scenes".

Btw I have got to stop putting my orders in when I grab a spare five minutes at work. My two major disaster in this game have happened when I have done that. I am usually very busy and my work requires a lot of concentration so when I switch focus to diplomacy my mind is not really on the job. I am usually well aware that an SC must be held for the Autumn.

[SOW IV gameID=11284]
it's a good lesson for others spyman, whether it's distraction, a muddled mind from drink or something else, or some other factor, not being able to take some time to clear your head to properly enter orders. these seemingly minor errors in an order can completely ruin your game - and if they happen in relation to an ally (or even repeated as was the catastrophe in one of my games) they really mess you up.

[SoW IV gameID=11284]

I agree - the other classic is to self bounce by entering two move sorders, instead of ordering a supported move - I have done that, and been lucky enough to benefit from someone doing that in the face of my units. Making sure you have entered the correct orders is key, and is one of the most common mistakes truly new players make - I've seen so many threads here and on FB where someone says their moves didn't resolve properly, and a check shows they entered the wrong moves.

[SOW2 - Official Commentary - Fall 1903. gameID=10963]

So, a more expanded version of my commentary.

England has either done a bang-up job of diplomacy or France has seen the writing on the wall and decided the need to slow Russia trumps additional SCs. I would expect to see a possible move to MAO, which blocks a potential Russian fleet threat on France and allows a surge further into the Med. The question is, of course, is what *Russia* will be saying during this - Jacob's diplomacy is usually pretty good, so we'll have to see if he can goad England into a stab. That would probably *not* be in England's long term interest, but sweet words and greed can sometimes blind someone to a reality they don't want to face. Helping Germany retain

Sweden will probably allow Germany to assist England into Norway next year.

and crap, I hit enter. More in a bit

[SOW2 - Official Commentary - Fall 1903. gameID=10963]

France's diplomacy was also pretty decent, using Germany and England to hold back Russia. This frees him to take a trip down south. Given the fact that Italy cannot hold ION, I'm unsure if France is going to move to TUN or TYRR - I would assume there would be some pressure from France to Austria to turn on Russia, with an agreement to cut up Italy - but what happens to Austria once Italy goes down is an interesting question.

Germany was unable to turn Austria around, which is probably going to cost him WAR. However, he's likely to retain Sweden - unless Russia chooses to surrender Norway. Burgundy will presumably support Kiel into MUN, so that front will end up stalemated for a bit - but Austria and Russia are likely to push Germany back, and I don't see the other powers being able to stop that.

Austria is in an interesting position - he has multiple options and few risks. He needs to support VEN, as those Italian armies aren't going to have anything else to do, and a move to Piedmont to bounce France might be wise. He can force ION, which will help in the future, but that will force him to concede Piedmont to France. The move to Vienna was a mistake - he should have moved to GAL or TRI. Vienna currently can offer no useful support to anyone.

Russia had to honor the threat of the Turkish move to ARM, so he's going to end up right back where he started in the fall. Moving the fleet to SMY would mean he couldn't offer support, so without another unit down south it's going to be a guessing game until Turkey screws up.

The move to Ukraine to shield those centers was wise, and he can still take WAR - as long as Austria plays ball. If at any time in the next few years Austria flips sides, Russia is toast.

Given the fact that he's going to be facing a net zero builds, I would expect Norway to move to Sweden with support. England gains a center, Germany loses one - but Germany is a greater threat right now. This leaves him the problem of how to cover STP, but Germany is going to have to disband *something* - which will either lessen the threat to Sweden or leave himself vulnerable in Munich.

Turkey made the best call he could, but without support he's just going to be playing a waiting game. The *best* option for him is to try to outthink Russia, but Russia can either take ANK or SMY with support, and Turkey can't stop that - and Russia is highly unlikely to risk the loss of an SC by moving to SMY *without* support. One place Turkey should *not* move is ARM - because if Russia has chosen to take SMY, Turkey is left with zero centers. His best bet is to continue playing tag and hope someone else weakens Russia.

I just want to say that after playing in this SoW game (#3), my other games with people who don't write so much is really boring and/or frustrating. I don't want to sound elitist or whatever, I'm just saying. It's better when they talk. Even lying all the time is better than never talking.

the blog is now completely up to date, minus this thread. i'll work on that, and finish adding some more tags, in a bit.

http://ghost-diplomacy.blogspot.com/

it's quite interesting to look back at what people predicted/observed and what actually took place, so i encourage people to check it out! hopefully it's easy to make sense of. if there is an advice about changes to make for it to be easier to follow, please do tell =)

also,what do people think about the suggestion from Pete U that we consider lining up a replacement for Darth (turkey in SOW IV) if he does indeed go CD?

[SOW IV gameID=11284]

@Djbent, Absolutely we should find a replacement. I sure their will be plenty of takers.

@pootercannon: absolutely, a game of dip without talking (gunboat) is far inferior. It is an interesting tactical learning expierence; and for a dip player it is useful to be used to looking at all the tactical moves.(it is also something to talk about) but talking changes what moves are likely; it makes a totally different game.

Yeah pooter, I haven't played a game with the "plebs" in about 6 months.

SOW 3

I'll give more indepth analysis tommorow as its late, but for now a few thoughts.

England, things went down exactly as I said they would. But see? You could have taken Sweden and Holland no problem and you would have had MAO, which would have meant ATLEAST a guaranteed Portugal. But thats what seperates you from the big times, ie Babak. Communication is important and learning information is important. But you need to consider its obvious bias. Good negotiators will take this account and point out the flaws but then dismiss them. This is why its so important to talk to EVERYONE everyturn, because it gives you the bigger picture.

Speaking of the bigger picture and talking to everyone: I really like the French cooperation with the dying Italy. Austria, if you don't give Italy something to chew on, he is going to help your enemies, simple as that.

This game is starting to look like a typical opposing alliance lame game, that sets up a four way. But things could still get interesting. Austria should be worried, as he is the easiest of the four to take care of. France is surely whispering in Turkey's ear. England might hit a roadblock with Germany Russia, and find that now that he has little to offer France, Babak is less friendly.

[SoW3 - Official Commentary - GameID=11113]

Shaping up for a four-way? No, not a chance.

France is already powering across the stalemate line area and just claimed Italy's good will. I really like how babak support england into Kiel - that's going to make the englishman less wary.

Of course, at this point France can't afford to stab England because the rest of the board should be clued in that if they don't unite to stop E/F then they are going to lose. However, France is going to be in a great position for a late-game stab for the win.

The next two years will be a race to the stalemate line. Unfortunately, Russia is not onboard with Austria and Turkey and Germany has no immediate support. All the action is on the back lines and Austria's forces have just been divided. I'm not optimistic at all that the east will be able to stop the west.

Also, I feel a little badly that maybe my comments induced Russia to attack Bud instead of Rum. That was a gutsy move as you saw that Turkey would assume you would move to Rum and you were banking on the fact that he would solicit help from Bud to get a bounce at Rum. Unfortunately, that didn't happen and you got messed over. :(

[SoW II]

Looks like everyone is doing a lot of wheeling and dealing in this game. There must be a lot of press. England is doing especially well to recover from a disastrous position and defend the homeland! Excellent diplomacy I suspect. Can't wait for the expert (and otherwise) commentary.

I've just blogged my comments for Autumn 02 (copied from above). Get me - down with the technology and all that...

thanks Pete U!

commentators - i know it's a hassle, but posting the game ID with your comments is really helpful, especially for new folks that stumble across this and want to easily find the game in question. if professors and teaching assistants can please do that, it would be much appreciated by the university.

glad to see the comments keep coming!

[SoW3 - Official Commentary - GameID=11113]

Jacob, I meant that it will be a 4 way clash with two alliances, rather than a really cool shit show. Not that it will end in a four way draw. Austria and England need to be on their guard as junior partners. Russia needs to cut a deal and quickly. Turkey needs to promise France he will stab Austria on the condition of England getting stabbed first. Turkey, staying with Austria will get you in a large draw, a fairly poor result really, but dumping him at the wrong time will get you a loss, which is worse.

Here's an interesting idea for later SoW games. As well as the expert commentators, you also get 1 or 2 newbie commentators, whose role is to vocalise the mistakes we make. That way the experts get an idea of the thought processes of the weaker players rather than just the moves.

[SOW2 - Official Commentary - Unit Place 1903. gameID=10963]

So, not a lot of suprises. Russia moved to take Sweden and Warsaw, France continued to support Germany and England, Turkey is still toast.

The only real surprise was that Austria did not support VEN from TYR. While he was able to bounce France, he should have been ready for the disruption of support from ION. Things do not look good for him.

France is now surrounded by 'allies', who are pushing back Russia and Austria at all points. The question is, when will he take some of their centers fr his own?

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