I read about it there already, but definitely interested in trying it out for a game. Italy is so unlikely to attack. It seems like a good idea to me.

The gambit looks very different whether or not you bounce in Burgundy. With an arranged bounce, it's a way to give you a say in Belgium without pissing off Germany by forcing your way into Burgundy.

Really not much of a gambit at all if you agree to that in FP. I guess that's an issue with the stats of openings in FP games.

I like that it guarantees a finger in the Belgian pie without leaving yourself open to anybody's attack (save for Italy, but he so rarely goes to Piedmont anyway). I suppose it does come with the risk of irritating Germany, though.

I can hardly imagine a situation in which Germany would want to arrange a bounce in Burgundy. To do so would, in most games, offer England an unopposed convoy to Belgium for build #2.

"To do so would, in most games, offer England an unopposed convoy to Belgium for build #2."

Not if Germany opens to Holland or if Russia is opening with two North.

Yes, those games would be exceptions rather than the norm. My experience is that over half the games I've played have seen Moscow go south and Kiel go someplace other than Holland.

Vaft's stats show that Germany moves to Holland about a 3rd of the time and Russia goes Nortrh a little less than that.

But that's really irrelevant to the point if this is a press game. If the bounce is arranged like I said, Germany knows that he may want to move to Holland to bounce England (or might know that France is moving to Picardy and will be able to do so). In fact, of the major German openings, moving to Burgundy gives the best success according to his stats.

A bounce in Burgundy should never lead to England getting free Belgium. No French player should ever arranged a bounce in Burgundy without also moving Paris to Picardy, imo. Whether Germany wants to commit the fleet to Holland instead of Belgium is his choice; as Germany I've found I actually prefer to put the fleet in Denmark. Germany can bounce Sweden to show allegiance to England just as much as a support to Belgium, France has to make the pick.