S03: F ROM build from Italy seems to signal friendship to everyone BUT France. Seems like he's realizing his mistake? Two northern builds from Turkey spell trouble for Russia. F EDI seems to be England asking France for peace yet again; I would have built army to both cover LYP and because with 4 fleets and one army, it's hard as France to give up that much naval power.

A03: There's that move back to ION by Italy and the bounce by West Med. He couldn't hold TUN if Italy got both TYRR and ION. Oddly enough, a interesting support to RUHR by MUN, as MAR goes to PIE. I think Italy may be asking for friends too late. Austria still focused narrowly on Italy, and I don't blame him, and Turkey of course getting everything he needs and wants with a slow meander west and a strong attack North. England correctly saw the convoy coming, and made plenty of gains as well with NTH, NOR, SWE, and STP he's in a decent position if he an hold out till the build phase.

W03: The support to MOS from STP, the support from UKR to RUM by BUDA with SER cutting support. That's great to see guys, gj on working together, all three of you! I expect to see respectable names next to pink purple and orange when this game is done. Italy not appreciating that move to PIE, and certainly now that support to VEN, and moving towards France's mainland but between gaining BEL and TRI-VEN succeeding and I'm sure Turkey offering no quarter, I think Italy will be the first out of the game if Germany holds out. Fortunate for Germany, England seems very friendly, as the cheeky convoy was not appreciated at all and he tried to issue you a support hold in DEN. On the other hand, England could very easily take DEN/BER if he wants, so unless you find a way to reciprocate real fast it may not be worth much [although the fact tha you get a build helps, F KIE if you're worried about the English stab and want another front, A KIE if you wanna signal peace to E and attack F/I, I strongly urge the latter IMO]. I'm expecting a large F/E war coming, and it shall be glorious!

S04: Army build KIE and F build LYP, good job guys! Army build in TRI was pretty much required. Disband in TYRO signals that Italy is just gonna suicide France I believe. France build F BRE and on one hand it's antagonistic with three fleets on the EC now, but on the other hand maybe any other build is too weak? Esepcially without knowing that Italy would go for the revenge kill A Par may not have crossed his mind.

A04: FINALLY A SIGNAL FROM DEN! GJ man. Not that you had too many choices :P But very good moves by Germany all around; it's clear his poor decision was because of Italy's greed not because of his own faults. Compare to Turkey, who is being driven back by coordinated efforts and its clear his good position was not because of his move but other's poor moves. Italy not fully committing to the revenge kill with TUN-WESTMED, and that's just sad bro. You know you lost, you know who you want to take it out on, and you only move half your untis versus france and move the other half vaguely towrads your own centers you already lost? I don't get it. Good play by Austria defending BUD, helping out versus Turkey, also attacking Italy's home centers. Very nice play there. France trying to defend against the Gascony Terrorist and attack England and attack Germany all at the same time and it is not going to end well my friend. England gearing up for the big naval battle.

W04: Look at E and F slug it out! WOO! Italy gets his revenge MAR and should have lost NAP but Turkey really wants it as well. Turkey, this was your chance to make friends with Austria, cause lord knows you'll never make friends with Russia. Turkey gets his fleet back into GRE, but because it can't attack SER, it's only MEH levels of useful. Was that a Russian NMR? An otherwise stagnant board. We're not at the mid game yet folks!

S05: A fleet build in BER? uh? Germany pls. Germany stahp. Germany what are you doing? England is currently winning the war on FRA due to you and/or Italy helping him out, and has nothing to worry from the Russian. Even if France was useful to you and you guys totes coordinated, I think England could still hold you two off! This is not the time to be stabbing him....

A05: GEEZ ENGLAND SAW THAT MOVE TO BALTIC COMING WHAT WHO COULD HAVE GUESSED?!?!??!? In other news it's truly a Russian NMR which is bullshit and is going to allow for Turkey to get on his feet again, and Turkey using it to his advantage by support holding Rumania so he can get all the CD dots for himself.

W05: Austria gets a bunch of builds which is nice He's been having great play both strategically and diplomatically; then gave Turkey some of his own bullshit medicine with the supports to RUM. France is falling apart and has to decide on the suicide into england or try to take back SPA/MAR. Italy of course going to be down to MAR/SPA/TUN and is just hoping for a survive or a draw as he holds some of the most important centers for stalemate lines. Sad to see the Russian NMR. I'm guessing Whaskell?

S06: Army build by Turkey suggests he's going to continue exploiting the CD by convoying to SEV and moving SEV to UKR. Cold play dude. Fleet build by Austria suggests he's willing to take Turkey on. Wales disband by France suggests he's going to play for the survive rather than the revenge which is honorable. He may let ENG have EC to focus on Iberia and hope that the German/England spat keeps Pink occupied.

A06: Turkey did as expected. Move to ADR seems a move of trying to block TRI-ADR than any real reason for him to be in ADR himself, but Austria saw that coming. Can easily use ROM to block VEN. Not that Turkey can't get MOS 100%, which will give him a build and put a bit of pressure on England having a real enemy there in MOS. Germany gets WAR fro free if Turkey takes MOS, which doesn't seem like anything that hurts Turkey too bad, seeing as Germany has no reason to attack him and is actively defending against England as I type. France goes for spain which is the correct move; if he moves EC-MAO he can get two centers back, although he may not or be able to trust England not to pursue BRE/BEL during that time. England has played a great and honest game so far (I don't think leaving STP open to Russia is something he wouldn't do without the CD, him and Russia were very clear there IMO). Expect England to force himself back in NTH, it's too important.

W06: Aaaaaand there's the two free SC from the CD, one to Turkey, one to Germany. Germany may be proud of himself right now, but I think it's mostly pointless. Yes he went from three units to six units, but fourth of them can't move, and there's a huge Turkey/Austria at the bottom and while they are fighting each other, they're no signs of them getting smaller either. It's an Orkz vs Tyranids situation for the rest of the board for those of you who know your 40k lore. Italy trades spain for MAR and finally gives up sitting at Tunis which is oddly and humorously made even better due to the constant bouncing in ION by orange and yellow. France moves to MAO, changes his mind on BEL, but I'm not sure that was correct. A move to BUR then MAR, rather than PIC then back to BEL, would have given him more chance at taking back Iberia, and it's not like he can stop England if England wants to take BEL at this point, so wasting moves pretending you can doesn't make a lot of sense to me. An unfortunate amount of bounces for Austria is one thing to point out, while one was probable (ION), and two were purposeful (VEN), all the others were unplanned.

S07: There's the draws from everyone who's not Turkey. Not that, based on Turkey's moves so far, I expect him to draw any time soon without much more pressure than just Austria. England had Draw and Cancel up but now it's just Cancel. He may be one of those players worried about GR and/or Stats and doesn't want this premature and CD-caused draw to affect those, but if you're one of those people you really shouldn't be playing Public Live Gunboats, honestly. I'm running out of things to say about the game. Austria can move VIE to GAL and try to continue holding back Turkey, Germany can move armies to help protect WAR. France and Italy hate each other too much to make a difference in this game anymore as they slap their we noodles at each other over in Iberia.

A07: The move to IRS makes sense as it's clear that England cannot and will not defend it this year but it's going to be a dead end; if he gets even one build somewhere else he can build an army and force France out,a nd it seems clear he'll get a build with BEL and DEN and even if he loses SWE it won't matter. Like I predicted Turkey takes WAR and Austria takes GAL. Austria finally gets into ION which gives him a lot of power. Good read by Germany on RUHR, but in general I have to say it's lacking seeing as he should have known he can't hold WAR or DEN and now DEN has no retreat path and now England can come out on top. Turkey moves more units north which makes sense. Still Russia has RUM which is actually kinda funny.

W07: No draw vote for E/A/T. Although A and T are fighting still a lot, it seems to me they are signalling that they should just get rid of the lesser powers. England is going to get his two builds with a cheeky BER move on top of gaining DEN/BEL/HOL and losing NOR/STP. However he knows he can take back NOR and STP at any point. Something to note is that ENG has a crap ton of fleets. I've dont a 100% fleet England before when I wanted to signal I won't attack the people on the mainland, but a player I respect didn't think too highly of it and I can see why, from an outside perspective he really needs more armies. Turkey finally gains RUM in exchange for GRE. Wet noodles in Iberia once again. Although BRE is open, and West Med can support spain if need be. Going after MUN rather than GAS or PAR doesn't make sense to me, it only works if MUN goes to cover BER *AND* England doesn't actually go for it. Seems greedy

S08: A EDI but F LON. Not sure I agree with it, but I understand it. Army in VIE of course no surprise, although the army in CON is a bit for me. He'll need a third fleet in the south for naval surpremacy, and the BLA fleet doesn't count as it's protecting RUM/BULG and can't get to the south seas easily anyways. We'll see where that army goes.

A08: Hmm, interesting. Austria gets RUM in exchange for Turkey getting GRE. A win for TUR here I believe, since it's a forced disband from GRE but a retreat to SEV for RUM which temporarily puts GRE a man up. Block in GAS by Italy is a smart move. England 100% gets LYP back, which is why it was a such a short sighted move. SWE and NTH can guarantee NOR and then STP, so I think Germany is just straight out of this game. Completely unnecessary stabs to someone who saved you, combined with short term ambitions for CD'd centers will do that. oh, he NMR'd. That would explain a lot too, although I wouldn't put out a NMR in frustration. Whaskell is that you? I expect EC to go for BRE, especially if he doesn't have to worry about RUHR moving HOL. Italy can't get ROM/NAP due to a planned self bounce in ROM, so he will probably cover TUN? Turkey isn't known for turning down dots in the game so far, and he can easily protect GRE with just AEG.

W08: Maybe England didn't realize Germany NMR'd? Because he still self-bounced in HOL. I mean that's honest play so whatever. With his tow builds he's drawn out draw votes from both A and T which is actually a bit impressive. Italy didn't see that SUPER OBVIOUS self bounce in ROM, but maybe he's hoping for support from ION? I dunno man, that's a stretch with everything else Turkey could do with ION...I guess the logic was that with a build from BRE he really needs a home center back, but it's too late for that now man. Best you can do is eliminate the France you hate and try to be an important part of the stalemate line, whether it"s to stop Turkey or Austria or England doesn't much matter.
Russian CD.
German CD.
French CD.
Such is the life for live gunboat players.

S09: THERE ARE THOSE ARMY BUILDS good on you England. Looks like England will try for all the way. It shouldn't happen though; He needs WAR, VIE, VEN, or TUN to make 18, and he's ridiculously far from all from all of them, especially his armies. Obviously MOS has to go for STP, but I don't think Turkey can spare any more units to send one to LIV (and WAR is out of the question with AUS owning GAL), so England can keep STP effectively Neutral with just NOR for a while, and eventually take it when he wants to. For now he'll be concentrating on convoying units, especially with the German CD he can get them into BEL no problem through NTH, and possibly also PIC if Italy doesn't want to risk leaving BRE, while LYP can come around the side and basically make certain all of France and Iberia turns Pink. If AUS and TUR don't either let one of each other win or work together soon it could be a very dark time for the rest of the board. On the other hand I'm still kinda rooting for England because I believe his play so far has been very good; if someone was told that F/G/R all CD'd, of course they'd think England is doing well, but the Russian CD and the German and French CD's happened after he had already cemented much of his lead against the respective country, so it's not nearly as illegit as one would think for him.

A09: And even more to his credit, he's playing as if Germany will come back any moment in much of his move, such as supporting the convoy to BEL even though the only person that could bounce him would be the CD Germany. Italy self-bouncing, and at first it seems he's trying to be honest as well and not just moving to GAS from SPA in case France isn't actually CD, but that doesn't make sense because if he was worried about France moving against him, France would move to GAS with MAR support and it would work anyway....so close but no cigar Italy on that. T and A still fighting ferociously, with TUR not even going for STP. Gives TUR RUM, but I'm still not particularly impressed, I think that TUR will also get TUN and at that point it'll be a TUR/ENG race with ENG still obviously winning, watch out for a possible solo throw by AUS if the situation gets too desperate for him.

W09: Yep, there's the Tunis buiild. And a honest effort to stymie Eng with the Prussia move and Livonia move, wait, why didn't ENG and TUR bounce in LIV? Ah, misordered the convoy by ENG. Doubtful too costly, but still costly because STP is a fleet and cannot pressure MOS, allowing him to just stand there. Of course, the bluff of not going to Prussia means that TUR is a bit exposed in WAR, but pressuring BER should be enough. Of course a support to MAO by ENG means that he'll get BRE, and the correct move to keep pushing his armies as deep as possible before the East can sort itself out.

S10: Another army build by ENG is of course correct, as well as the army to head north and the fleet to head south by Turkey. Funny enough Italy doesn't have to disband from losing TUN due to the situation of more SC than units due to no home supply centers. However it's still not obvious how ENG plans to solo (the trade off for the defensive power of corner powers). He won't actually get into or keep WAR, and is too far from TUN. It's not impossible, but it's looking much more likely as a three-way draw between E/A/T. Although T might get too greedy and let Austria throw the game still. If, for example, AUS wants to give ENG ROM or VIE or VEN, not much anyone can do about it.

A10: NOW THIS IS A GAME OF DIPLOMACY! AUS finally heads west to deal with the solo threat while Turkey correctly issues nothing but self-bounces and support holds. England sends a unit north to pressure MOS as correct. What's not necessarily correct or incorrect is his fleet play in MAO; moving to WEST MED seems to signal not so much a greater plan as much as a realization that he's nowhere near the critical 18th and a general rush to get close by to them. He'll get a build from MUN, and can use that to build an army in LON and then convoy with support to PIC and still ensure that he gets BRE, but it's over in terms of hoping to solo for ENG. Too many fleets too :/ . Not sure what TYRR-ION was for. Chances of the three-way E/T/A draw (or even earlier if England gets bored with eliminating I/F) is almost certain.
Oh hey, France is back. Not that it matters. And frankly if I was anyone on the board, I wouldn't draw until he's eliminated. Don't CD. Certainly don't CD and then try to get back in on the draw...

W10: I'm no longer trying to interpret Italy's play. He's probably Strauss? Inscrutable is a nice way of putting it, inexplicable is another. Because AUS owns BOH, and both A and T have plenty of armies, they can shore up the Right and Middle of the board no problem. It's if England can get enough Fleets/Armies to pressure both TUN and ROME because right now GOL/MAR/PIE/TUSC are completely undefended. This game's not dead yet. Turkey needs to send even more fleets that way, but Italy has a way to sabotage him with a move to Smyrna which at the very least will heavily delay Turkey. If I was Italy, I would totally do it. If I"m not in the draw, I'm doing everything I can do let someone solo. But then again, I've been told, by many people, with not the nicest of tone, that I throw to a solo way too easily....

S11: Another Army build. This one I actually think is incorrect. ENG should have build another fleet in LON and gone MAO-NAF, with west med support, letting him move EC-MAO; LON-EC. This way he threatens TUN and can support himself into MAO with either one anyway later. The mainland is not his problem for soloing, the Tunis dot is. If anything this means he's trying to build a stalemate line more than he's trying to solo, which isn't unrespectable. WILL ITALY MOVE SMYRNA?! WILL TURKEY USE PRECIOUS RESOURCES TO DEFEND AGAINST IT?! TUNE IN NEXT TIME IN 60 SECONDS TO FIND OUT!!!

A11: Man, I promised I wouldn't try to understand Italy. Deep breaths. Deep breaths. Nothing much to say here, AUS and TUR playing the stalemate line properly, England also setting up for a stalemate mostly. Any other commentary involves trying to figure out why Italy did things or what Italy would do, and I can't even. I just can't even.

W11: ENG gets BRE and MAR, but it's just clean up for the three-way at this point.

S12: Shoulda gone for Smyrna Italy :/ That's all I'm saying. Seems like correct builds from ENG, he is now certain of 17, and while he may try some WEM-TYRR shenanigans for the 18th, it's more likely we will see MAR s WESTMED-SPA, BRE-MAO deal instead, although ENG has to watch out for the two strength attack on MAR if AUS/TUR want to coordinate it. His insistence on owning PRU is a bit weird, it's like he is honestly trying to get to LIV/MOS/WAR?! But I don't think it'll work. Especially if BOH supports SIL, it can't. Turkey might want to fall back LIV-MOS, MOS-UKR/SEV; as there is a chance that ENG successfully disbands LIV h then ENG can get MOS for certain.

A12: Interestingly enough if A/T are unrelenting ENG might have too many fleets and not enough armies to take PAR without giving something up, but because France resigned (again) it'll still be a three way draw. MAO moves NAF to threaten a solo, or just goes straight to SPA with MAO support for the draw. And he did not play PRU/LIV correctly, if there was a way at all. With the forced disband in PRU it's game over in the northern front; possibly MAO-POR, IRS-MAO now that Italy has NMR'd and will CD.

Straight insult to the rest of the board to save a forced disband as the only player requiring orders in the retreat phase. not cool homie. You didn't work fast or efficiently enough, or spooked the board too much, to get the solo now build a bridge and get over it son.

There's a line of play of PIE s GOL-MAR, GOL-MAR, TYRO-MUN, BOH/SIL s TYRO-MUN, PRU-BER where ENG loses a center, but it's a lot of coordination and it's not clear he can't take it back of that committing both PRU and SIL to the attack doesn't compromise WAR (most probably not). The point is that ENG needs an Army in KIE to make a true stalemate line in the middle.

W12: Yep there's the POR/MAO moves from ENG, the triple attack by A/T, which COULD HAVE WORKED if they understood how to attack MAR, they shouldn't be scared of giving up GOL IMO because MAR would be a forced disband so it's actually safer as ENG would have one fleet not two in the med, and Italy is no longer fucking up Turkey's fleets so he can come over and ensure things. There's a non-trivial chance that Italy taking SMY would have let ENG solo, which is pretty funny and a reminder to all you gunboat/diplomacy players that throwing the game when you know, or when someone threatens, to eliminate you in a WTA game is a viable strategy. Instead, he's going to be eliminated anyways, and watch A and T still get a third of the points, and piss everyone off by constantly NMR'ing for no reason.

S13: Another fleet? Innnnnnnn EDI? OK? If STP attacks MOS, he'll bounce with LIV and LIV won't be disbanded because BALT can only attack with one strength. And Turkey has his last army over in RUM rushing to the location too, so it has to be this turn or not at all, and it can't be done this turn. So I'm not sure what ENG is thinking there. Otherwise it's just the slow slog to watch Spain fall and then Paris as HOL moves to KIE and completes the middle stalemate line. Sorry it's not the most exciting to write up, but it's a deterministic game with stalemate lines! So....

A13: I doubt this was planned but GOL moving to WEM means that BUR can be used to take PAR risk-free and finally end this game. TUN s h WEM, ION-TYRR, GRE-ION, and TYRR-GOL ends the game.

W13: aaaaaaaaaaaand there we go. Three players left. England *could* try and hope that because it's gunboat A and T will not communicate well enough to keep him from the solo by some weird attack on GOL/TYRR/TUSC, but it almost certainly won't work and would be in tremendously poor form. I mean, at this point, he could force is way to GOL but then the other team could force their way to WEM, and the army in TRI and ROM are free to support PIE and block TUSC.

S14: Maybe England wants to try to disband LIV? He could do it if he has a fleet in GOB, an army in SWE, and convoys to LIV with support from STP, assuming If and only if Turkey attacks STP with LIV and supports from MOS and of course he is supporting STP with BAR. But Turkey has another army that (should0 be going to UKR/SEV to make sure even if that happened it doesn' tmatter anyway, and he could just support hold LIV with MOS/WAR and there's plenty of ways that won't work but I'm trying to figure out how ENG is going to try to do this. Am I missing something in the south? I don't think so. TRI-VEN, ROM to TUSC, and they have it all locked up I believe. Even if MAR goes to GOL and GAS goes to MAR, VEN supports PIE, rome moves to TUSC, TUN supports NAF and ION supports TYRR and it's 100% locked.

This is a friendly reminder that if you find yourself in a stalemated gunboat game, a truly stalemated game where deterministically, 100%, no forward progress can be made and the defenders are correctly support-holding every year for three years in a row, email the mods to force-draw the game. Also, if you're the leader in that position, it's extremely poor taste to keep playing hoping one of them misorders or has to go to work/sleep.

A14: From now on I think I'm done with commentating unless something big happens.

S16: aaaaaaaaaaaand England finally draws.

That ends the live commentary. I only wrote for as long as the phase ended, so I apologize if I skimmed over things I thought were *too* obvious.

So what do you do when your not having fun?

+1 bro nice. I always appreciate a good commentary.

I'm always having fun ssorenn ;)

@Yoyoyozo thanks! I'm hoping to in the next month or so also move to video and/or audio additions of these, in the honored tradition of https://www.youtube.com/user/Triumvir412

I took too long to draw, as I'm shamefully apt to do. I was playing on mobile and it was all I could do just to bust out all my moves in time, to the extent that I was seeing possible openings where there were none, really. I should without a doubt have drawn after Berlin was lost, and probably sooner.

Very well written, Valis. Spot-on analysis and thoroughly enjoyable.

Germany's fleet build in Berlin was as huge a WTF for me as it was for you. I'm pleased that both he and France were eliminated after the shenanigans they pulled.

Good reading material, Valis, something spontaneous like that I've missed. Nice write achievement as well as estimate of the situation. Further so.

Thanks Strauss. I took multiple digs at you unfortunately, but I didn't want to censor or especially retro-actively censor myself. You played well, especially at the end game.