More specifically, I know if I could prevent France from building fleets in Brest, he would have to get them through the MAO to attack me, so I could also fall back there should my attack fail, or just take Portugal and Spain if I won.
Now, my attack did fail and I was forced to fall back, with France eventually retaking everything I took on the mainland (Brest, Holland, and Belgium), but in that time I was able to take all of Scandanavia (as Germany was WAY too counter Russia, and Russia just failed) and Kiel, along with possibly taking St. Petes next year. The last turn France and I traded Kiel for Belgium, but other than that we were even. I knew that because France managed to make it into the MAO that he could always flank me through the North Atalntic Ocean, so I needed to end the game before he could do that. Defeating France would have been my best outcome, but that seemed unreasonable, so a draw sounded good.