Orathaic,
Yes, sorry I was unclear -- I do agree that _photons_ appear to disperse for reasons that are much more directly dynamical/geometrical. They're travelling super fast and there isn't enough matter to trap most of them, etc. As you say, one could view this in terms of state counting, but it's not clearly necessary at this level (though certainly if one wanted to be rigorous). I was just saying that in the heat case, it's more statistical.
OK, I agree, the black hole has mass M - m. The point is that by the end of all this, there is LESS mass than there used to be -- only m now. M - m is being converted into radiation, and the process will repeat itself, yielding a galaxy of mass m' < m and (m - m') in radiation, etc., so mass is getting dispersed this way, or so it seems to me.
As to your example of the U-shaped potential -- if the particles are not in the center initially, then they will NOT focus at the center -- they will oscillate; unless, of course (which is what really happens) they colide and convert kinetic energy (which came from the potential energy) into heat (and/or mutual interaction energy) -- i.e., they clump at the bottom but still have all the kinetic energy in some of their degrees of freedom. If they're massive objects like stars or planets, the degrees of freedom will probably be internal -- higher kinetic energy (temperature) of the constituent particles, so that there's a lot of disorganized low-amplitude oscillation around the center, instead of a a single high-amplitude oscillation.
This U-shaped potential / entropy problem comes up in a really interesting way in Landauer's principle, which says that erasing memory always increases entropy. If you model a bit of memory as a twin-well potential with (say) a ball that can roll back and forth, then there is no single force / potential that can be applied to deterministically set the ball back to (say) well/state 1, unless the ball is dispersing energy / increasing entropy at some point in the process. Or in brief, erasing requires an entropy increase of at least k log 2 on average. But I digress quite badly.