The interesting thing about Ron Paul is that between Republicans, Democrats, and Independents, Dr. Paul actually polls worst among Republicans. Democrats and independents in particular have a more favorable opinion of him, (I suspect largely due to his foreign policy views). He has a fanatically loyal and fairly sizable following who will move heaven and earth for him.In a two or three way race for president in a general election, I think he would have a real shot at it (if the elections weren't fixed, that is).
However, I don't think Dr. Paul is really interested in being president. Mrs. Paul almost died on the campaign trail in '08, and Dr. Paul is 76 now (although in fantastic health). He is primarily running an educational campaign. Which is great - he has obviously had a huge influence already, and the Republican establishment is absolutely terrified by the fact that Paulistas completely dominate the under 30 GOP demographic - but I don't think a President Ron Paul is really an option, particularly when running the special interest gauntlet in the elephant party. I will be attending the 2012 Libertarian National Convention on the off chance that I'm wrong, and will be twisting (or breaking) arms to get him the Libertarian nomination if he wants it, but unfortunately I don't think that's on the menu.
"Perot actually had a record of accomplishing things and wasn't a wingnut."
Puhleaze. I know you're not old enough to remember, but Perot was constantly accused of being a crazy crackpot wingnut, even more so than Ron Paul is today. The lamestream media ended him by constantly beating the "Ross Perot is crazy" drums, particularly after he temporarily withdrew from the '92 election (much as they ended Howard Dean in '04 after the entirely contrived 'Dean Scream' "scandal").
"The future of the Republican part is one of increasing libertarianism. The neocons and culture warriors are dying. People with a strong commitment to individual liberty are the future, and the with them Rand Paul has a successful future ahead (at least in Republican primaries)."
I largely agree (Ron Paul just won the California GOP straw poll with 48%), but am a little wary of Rand Paul. He ran a bit farther to the right in the '10 election than I would've liked. Such is the practice of practical politics, I suppose, but it kinda rubbed me the wrong way. Rand Paul may have 50% of Ron Paul's DNA, but unfortunately the fruit sometimes falls far from the tree as they say. I have been somewhat encouraged by some of his post-election statements, but he's not getting my stamp of approval until he proves his libertarian street cred to me (6 years' voting record should be enough to make a decision).