Commentary and Analysis for DCL Group B Game 3

Amazing how much a year can do, huh? This time last year I was hyping up the Juggernaut as being able to decimate everything in an otherwise-divided board; now it looks as though the Barbarian (Franco-German alliance, named after the waves of Germanic invaders that brought down Rome, for those that didn’t know) might be the best-positioned alliance structure on the board. There might even be a Western Triple in play, considering that France cut off a hostile move to the Channel. Meanwhile, Germany’s bold excursion east has crippled Russia and brought the Juggernaut down a notch.

England, after taking the spring season off to party, had a productive autumn, getting a foothold in Scandinavia. Covering London wasn’t a bad play, per se, and he’s got to welcome the French fleet vacating the Channel. The lone build being an army in Edinburgh conveys a lack of concern for immediate attack (and thus a lack of need to emphasize naval defenses), hinting at a Western Triple; the only location it can go now is to Norway. England appears poised for a Scandinavian campaign and should have little trouble marching through the region.

France’s builds betrayed him: his alliance with Germany was clear from the outset. The location was a little surprising; one would have expected he would go after England, and perhaps the Channel fleet was intending to do just that. But when a new England came to power, one that was willing to have peace, France’s path was set. Having already claimed the Gulf of Lyon and Western Mediterranean, he promptly pressed his advantage over the shell shocked Italian. Correctly predicting that he would use Ionian to cover his vulnerable supply center in Tunisia, the Frenchman boldly pressed his fleet into the Tyrrhenian Sea and convoyed his army to Africa. France’s moves this year were truly flawless; I look forward to seeing what he does next with his superb position.

Germany’s turn was also remarkable. He wisely put his faith in France’s peaceful builds and stormed east, catching Russia off-guard and taking Warsaw and Sweden. The Russian sneaked into Silesia, but this is easily handled with the concentration of strength in the region. The main question now is what to do with England. England appears willing for the moment to work against Russia as well, but it strikes me as being more of a race to stake claims on Russia than a cooperative effort. Surely Germany will claim Moscow before England gets St. Petersburg, and what happens to the Englishman then? Clearly Germany trusts England for now, having vacated the Low Countries. The English question will be the main thing to watch in 1903-1905.

Italy’s year was disastrous, almost as bad as Austria’s. His demise, barring some sheer brilliance, is imminent. In short, he made the two classic mistakes an Italian can make in 1902: stabbing Austria unsuccessfully in the wake of a Juggernaut, and responding too slowly to a France clearly intent on moving against him. At the very least he ought to have moved Naples to Tyrrhenian in spring instead of Apulia; that move, and guessing wrong (not a bad guess, but a wrong one) with regards to Tunisia, really messed him up. Austria seems willing to let the Juggernaut devour what is left of him instead of Italy, as well. This tends to happen when one stabs... alas. Next year will be judgment year for the green machine. Will he recover from a bad 1902, make amends with the East and repel France? Or will he and Austria, stabbed together, die together as well?

Speaking of Austria... I say Italy’s year was almost as bad as his, but in truth, Austria could not really have done anything to save himself. The Juggernaut was stymied in the north, but still had considerable success in the south and appears poised to capture what is left of him by 1903. And when Italy stabbed and prepared to attack, well, we knew he was done. A valiant effort to keep the stabber from profiting was about all Austria could muster, and muster he did. He may yet be spared death for a little while yet, should timely Barbarian intervention save his soul.

Russia and Turkey had a far less successful year than last year. Turkey got out of the bottleneck in the Balkans and will probably be the most under-the-radar power for a while, slowly growing strong at the expense of dying Austria and collapsing Italy. Russia made some positional progress in northern Austria but quickly gave it up in an unsuccessful defense of Warsaw. The Russian’s collapse may come sooner than one might expect after such a strong 1901. England coming alive did not help matters. If the Turk stabs his vulnerable ally, Russia will fall in the next few years.

Everyone: 1902 analysis is coming up. Writing it now.

Commentary and Analysis of Game 1 Group B:

What a year for all! Unexpected alliance have prospered as well as disintegrated. The future prospect of a juggernaught has vanished, indicated by Turkey’s move to the Black Sea in Spring 1902. However it might be trouble for Turkey as he is trying to handle two foes at once: Russia and Austria. Will they converge upon Turkey and try disregard their differences? Or will Austria continue to battle Russia with Germany? The prospects of a Russia/Austria are slim, as Austria has supported Germany into Warsaw.

Refocusing to each individual country, we should start with England. He has changed his mind on what to do expand upon, and ultimately has suffered from it. His army on the main land that was at Belgium was now taken over by Germany, forcing him to retreat to Ruhr. England has taken Norway in 1902 (a rare occurrence) and is left with 4 supply-centers with a dim look ahead.

France has also flipped the coin many times, moving into the EC and moving out. He is moving onto Italy it seems with only one army, a possible bad move. He has one build though. He has to build in Brest because it is his only open home SC. It will be interesting to see what he does in 1903.

Germany is currently the dominant force in this game with 8 SC’s. He is depending on Austria now, and these two countries could quickly devour Russia. His move into Burgundy must have been a great surprise to France, but it was in the end harmless. That is for France; England lost Belgium.

Italy took Tunis this year. A late-starting Lepanto? A holding Italy in the fall, being advanced on by France (and Austria?). His prospects do not look that good though if the two countries decide to attack.

Austria has been able to survive the Turkish attack, a good sign for his future. He is keeping Turkey in his corner while also eating up Russia with Germany. A question for him is whether to attack Italy with France.

Russia is in a bad position, future is a quick defeat, unless he can persuade either Austria or Germany to get off his back. I applaud whomever it is who took the spot, coming in at a rough turn. Hopefully he can make something out of this game.

Turkey, being concealed in his corner, is likely to be advanced upon by Austria after Russia. His defensive line looks good so far, but will it be for long? He really needs an SC to build at Smyrna to try to take over the Ionian Sea. Otherwise it might be a shorter game than he wants.

This unfortunately is less lengthy than I want it to be, as I am in a rush

Group C, game 1:
Spring: England: What to say? He went north like most England players.
France: A supported move to Burgandy warns of an attack on Germany. However, it would have made more sense to move Marseilles instead of Paris to better attack Germany.
Germany: A power-hungry opening, going clearly for three SCs.
Italy: Obviously attacking Austria due to moves to Tyrolia and Venice.
Austria: Clearly trusted the untrustworthy Italy and left Venice and Trieste as possible moves for Italy.
Russia: Obviously wants the Balkans. Appears to have a NAP with Germany and to have betrayed Austria.
Turkey: Clearly doesn't trust Russia. Looks to be a good thing to.

Fall: England: Has appeared to have decided to betray France but did so poorly. It ought to have been done with German support or right from the start but as is failed.
France: Didn't see England coming but England probably didn't either. If it weren't for this betrayal he'd have peace all around and would be able to betray at his leisure.
Germany: Didn't trust the Italian unit in Tyrolia or could have supported England or France into Belgium. Seems odd to bounce Russia in Sweden with his wide open border.
Italy: Has caught Austria totally off guard by moving to Vienna. Austria had supported Trieste! Now, with Austria's lack of builds, central Europe is his oyster. Also, with England's betrayal of France, he likely won't be betrayed for a while.
Austria: If I were to predict the loser right now, he would be my choice. Attacks by Italy and Russia as well as no coordination with Turkey leave him with no allies and no builds. Unless someone CDs, he'll be the first to go.
Russia: In the midst of the chaos of the area, he took Rumania but Germany's bounce in Sweden may leave him in a pretty poor position with Turkish, Austrian and German ill-wishers.
Turkey: He needs an ally. He and Russia are both bouncing in the Black Sea and he and Austria just bounced in Greece. He might be able to get Italy to support him directly but it's only a slim chance.

Why only game 1?

Group A, game 1:
Spring1902
England: Tried to compensate for his self-bounce by double-teaming Norway but Russia bounced him this time. He now has more problems with France and Germany working together and France moving to the channel.
France: He and Germany seem to have overcome their differences and the moves this season indicate a sea-lion but for Germany's betrayal of Russia. Things are looking up.
Germany: He clearly believes that helping the enemy is not tantamount to being the enemy as he helps England against Russia and helps France take Belgium.
Italy: He and Austria have agreed to fight but Austria's position is better. However, Russia may yet come to the rescue by taking Budapest.
Austria: Now attacking Italy with a strong position but leaving himself open to Russia.
Russia: Do we have a juggernaut forming? He has let Turkey take Bulgaria and has simultaneously attacked England and Austria. However, Germany's betrayal may stymie this juggernaut.
Turkey: After a poor start, a potential juggernaut may give him new life. He should get at least one build this year and if the juggernaut is genuine could get many more in the future.

Fall 1902
England: Thanks to Germany he has finally taken Norway but it was close. The build will be crucial for defending against France but Russia won't let him rest on his laurels.
France: Very odd of him to be attacking both England and Italy. Even odder is his decision not to take Belgium giving him a buildless year and making Belgium the only remaining neutral supply center.
Germany: He seems to be helping England against Russia but not France. This is very bizarre. France may decide to come to Russia's aid against him after England's gone. However, this has yielded a short-term gain with his capture of Warsaw.
Italy: Russia's invasion of Austria saved his poor position but if a juggernaut is really forming then he will likely lose a lot soon. France's attack and Austria's remains will also cause problems.
Austria: Being attacked on three sides has quickly spelled the end of the Hapsburg dominions but there wasn't a whole lot he could have done.
Russia: The apparent juggernaut puts him in a very strong position despite Germany's occupation of Warsaw. However, he will have to play his cards right to overcome the threat and if he keeps taking everything, Turkey may become an enemy.
Turkey: Once he gets some SCs he will be formidable but for now he is a mediocre power.

@killer: I don't have a ton of time. This takes quite a while. I only did group A game one because it's very interesting. Otherwise I would only have done the one right now.

Here are the Group C games.
gameID=37654
gameID=37655
gameID=37656
gameID=37657

Group C, game 2:
Spring 1901
England: Either he didn't talk with France or France's move to the channel betrayed him. Either way, his army can save London and unless he's facing a sea lion he could still get a build.
France: Rather strange for him to move to both the channel and Burgandy. All that needs to happen to ensure his destruction is a stab from Italy.
Germany: He has done his typical move and is rushing for three SCs. However, with France's march into Burgandy it's unlikely.
Italy: Opening with a Lepanto. However, it's strange that he moved Venice to Apulia.
Austria: A strong defensive opening. However, he will most likely only get one build.
Russia: Two units north warns of a sea lion and requires an ally in the south. Who is it?
Turkey: A bounce with Russia and taking Bulgaria. Nothing abnormal.

Fall 1901
England: All the moves against him except Russia's warn of a Sea Lion. Also, with his forces divided, his position looks grim.
France: His sea lion moves indicate that the support to Burgandy was a feint.
Germany: He is part of the sea lion! Unless he is betrayed he will be in a very good position very soon.
Italy: Typical Lepanto opening.
Austria: He has a very good position with three allies and one enemy, Turkey. He got his one build and the next years should give him Greece and Bulgaria.
Russia: He is definitely part of a sea lion and his southern ally appears to be Austria.
Turkey: Things look grim for the Sultan although he may yet be able to salvage Bulgaria. Especially if he gets the as yet uncommitted Italy to aid him.

Commentary and Analysis for Game 2 of Group B:

A viscous Sea lion (France, Germany, and Russia against England) has taken place, But Russia is not likely to move out to the English homeland. This is taken over by France and Germany who seem to have a very trusting alliance. The two should defeat England with the span of 1904. Also it seems that the end is near for Austria too. The juggernaught is in play, and Italy has come around to try to snag an SC or two from Austria. From then on it is either the end for Italy or Turkey I believe. Russia may decide that the Wintergreen alliance may benefit him more, thus wiping out Turkey, or he may decide that he wants to continue to be loyal to Turkey and march on throughout the mainland. The alliance between Germany and France may be able to stop their potential torrid advance. They are going to plow their way through Austria soon, and Austria will have to learn to love his last years of survival.

I will now redirect the focus to each country’s moves. I will also predict how they will fare within the next couple of years.

England—a bad year, lost Norway, going to lose his the rest of his SC’s. acmac’s prediction: won’t last to 1905.

France—made the move to the English Channel and Irish Sea, closing in on England with Germany. There still is peace in the south with Italy which is apparently producing very beneficial results. acmac’s prediction: should continue to grow stronger and would be optimal to keep his alliance with Germany.

Germany—with help from France, he is likely to snag an SC from England. Surely will try to move east after the destruction of England. What will be the fate of that is hazy. But so far it has been blue skies with Russia. acmac’s prediction: should feed on England’s SC’s, maybe could rush in and help with the Austrian affairs.

Italy—peace with France, trying to sort things out with the current dilemma of Austria and will try to keep Russia as an ally. He built a fleet at Naples which could mean the end of Russia fairly soon. After that, maybe he could go onto Turkey with Russia’s help. acmac’s prediction: should survive until 1905-1906, but future is questionable after that.

Austria—everyone please take pity on Austria. It seems that in all the DCL games the future is not bright for him. Being attacked in a swarm by Turkey, Russia, and Italy he is going to quickly dissolved. acmac’s prediction: lasting until 1905. Dead end here.

Russia—one of the dominant forces in this game, he is very strong at this point. His future is most likely going to be bright. He should continue to try to keep his alliance with Turkey, as this will only make him stronger. acmac’s prediction: growing strong, should benefit from the juggernaught. He should keep doing everything the same.

Turkey—likely to be in control of the Balkans by the end of 1904. He should keep the firm alliance with Russia, as they are just plowing away. Good job by those two players. acmac’s prediction: should be a fun game the rest of the way—unless there is a Wintergreen. Yikes.

Group C, game 3:
Spring 1901
England: He and France have agreed to disagree with their bounce in the channel.
France: Attacking England. Either he and Germany have an alliance against England or Russia broke the sea lion.
Germany: Opening in Sea Lion style against England.
Italy: Lepanto Opening
Austria: The Balkan gambit should get him two builds.
Russia: Strange that he should ignore the Black Sea. Maybe he and Austria are together.
Turkey: He got the Black Sea! How did that happen? Maybe he and Russia agreed to keep it DMZ but he betrayed the agreement. Things are looking good for the sultan.

Fall 1901
England: He has the Channel but France has MAO and a build in Brest. He should be able to defend well by supporting with North Sea and moving London to Wales to defend against Irish Sea.
France: Continues the sea lion moves. He is doing well.
Germany: Two builds as he continues to develop against England. Strange that he didn't move to North Sea to cut the convoy.
Italy: Lepanto continues with a stab of Austria.
Austria: Not good. His loss of Trieste and ignorance of Greece have weakened him. Strange that his move to Ionian didn't cut the convoy. Italy got lucky!
Russia: Amazing! Persuading Austria and Turkey to aid him as he attacks Turkey and Builds to take Norway!
Turkey: What looked good in the Spring has lost its luster now. He will lose the Black Sea and then his homeland to Russia.

"Strange that he didn't move to North Sea to cut the convoy."
"Strange that his move to Ionian didn't cut the convoy. Italy got lucky!"

It should be noted that you have to dislodge a Fleet to disrupt a convoy. Moving into it without dislodging does nothing (except cut support)

Group A, Game 3:
gameID=37004

Builds 02:

Not much to say this round. France, Turkey, and England made the best builds they could. Germany is clearly going after France, which is great for England. Italy is really leaving his options open with his builds.

Bump for great justice.

Group A, Game 3:
gameID=37004

Spring 03:

-England: Good moves for England. Getting into BAR was a good call; with Germany's help, he'll get into STP next turn. He does need to be careful with France. If France gets into NAO, he could cause a lot of ruckus before he's taken down.
-France: He could hold against England and Germany for a while, but not against Italy, too. Italy's move into TYRS is very, very bad fro France. France needs to get Italy to turn around (by trying to convince Italy to take out Turkey). France could try to spring a deal with France and Germany. If Italy and Turkey are given free reign of the South, EG wont be able to take them out without France's help.
-Germany: Very good turn for Germany. He'll get MOS this year and maybe SEV if he's daring. If he want's to keep England as a friend, he should probably help him into STP. He's also making good progress against France.
-Italy: If Italy is ever going to attack Turkey, he should do it now. By moving to TYRS instead of ION, I doubt he will, though. Italy better make sure that Turkey heads North and builds no more fleets.
-Austria: Hopefully, Austria is still working through his diplomatic channels. He should be doing everything he can (along with France) to get Italy and Turkey to turn on each other.
-Turkey: Turkey is set to expand in a big way very soon. If he can keep Italy on his side for a few more turns, he'll be very hard to take down.
-Russia: Russia has completely fallen apart, and rightfully so. He continued to attack Turkey when he was being hammered from the West and the North. He made a common Russian mistake of trying to expand in too many directions and being unable to hold the line. I don't see how he could possibly come back from this.

Has this thread died? As a participant in Group C I was looking forward to reading running commentary!

I was doing commentary for group C but with school didn't have time, especially as I was also doing most of group A as well. I was looking forwards to some more commentary on some group B games.

Argh, got a little behind


Group A, Game 3:
gameID=37004


Fall/Builds 03

-England: Got into StP as I expected. It's nice to see England and Germany finally working well together. A reasonable build; at this point, more fleets won't help against France and will just spook Germany.
-France: Still doing a good job holding it. He got Italy to turn around which is really big for him. Unfortunately, unless he gets some help fast, he isn't going to be able to hold out much longer. It may be worth trying to get Italy to help before he finishes Austria. It will be hard for Italy to take Germany on without France to slow him down.
-Germany: Big turn for Germany. He's gotten him self a nice piece of Russia and is making good progress in France. The question is: How much of Russia can he hold on to? And, will people begin to turn against him now that he's doing so well?
-Italy: Italy is also doing well for himself. It looks like he's decided to take on Turkey. With Germany's recent growth, it's not clear if this is the best option. I'm a fan of taking what I can of France while Turkey battles Germany in the North. But, it will be nice to not worry about Turkey running out of room to expand, so it's a bit of a toss-up. Italy needs to realize, though, that it will be hard to take on EG by himself. He's still leaving himself a lot of options with his builds, something he's been doing the entire game is a very good thing to do.
-Austria: Still hanging in there. If Italy decides now is the time to move against Germany, he may even last longer. What he should really be doing, though, is convincing Turkey to work with him to bring Italy down.
-Turkey: Unfortunately, it seems like he wasn't able to keep Italy as an ally. Italy isn't committed, though, so there is still hope they can turn this around. Turkey needs to be wiling to work with Austria and Germany to move against Italy though. Germany should be especially happy with this, as it keeps his centers in Russia Proper safe and reduces the risk of Italy helping/taking centers from France.

Man, check out those group C games!
I appreciate the work gman and all the other commentators have done so far, but perhaps there is someone out there with a little more time to spare who wouldn't mind lending a hand?

Game links:
gameID=37654
gameID=37655
gameID=37656
gameID=37657

[Insert a bump disguised as uninsightful commentary here]

Bumpitybump.

Commentary and Analysis for Group B Game 1:

There hasn’t been a breakout in this game, going up to 1906. There are only inferior countries, while the others who are dominating have a relatively low SC count. Turkey is squeezed and he probably regrets the move to the Black Sea that cost him the only ally of his—Russia. Austria remains powerful and will probably split Turkey up.

England—3 SC’s and French and German attacks will only make him weaker. He holds Norway and two of his home SC’s which are likely to be taken within 1907. acmac’s—defeated by the end of next year.

France—charging into England with full force, but the question with him is what he will do after England. Does he chase after Germany? Does he swing south into the Mediterranean and try to go after Italy? His units already up in England may favor a German enemy, but it is largely his decision. Italy is vulnerable to his attack, while Germany cannot be attacked by just him. acmac’s prediction—will reach 7-8 SC’s by next year, and what he will do with them is unknown.

Germany—moving into England, a shaky alliance with Russia and moving south towards Austria. One may question if he is trying to expand in too many directions. We will see his fate as the game goes on. acmac’s prediction—will swipe another 1 or 2 SC’s and will probably fight for a draw.

Italy—his attacks aren’t working out. At 4 SC’s, he appears to be a wide-open target for France. acmac’s prediction: defeat in 1909-1910? Or can he stick it out for a draw?

Austria—so far, so strong. T-1 in the SC count with 6, but being closed in on by Russia and Germany may change that. He is too far away to attack Italy and he has run out of room for expansion. acmac’s prediction—probably will fall by 1911-1912 from Russia’s and Germany’s attack. Kudos to him for sticking it out.

Russia—a CD replacement, looking awfully strong as he prepares to crush Turkey and Austria. It would probably be in his interests to try to have Germany come over as a true ally. acmac’s prediction: will probably draw when he is through with his attacks.

Turkey—4 SC’s in a corner country such as Turkey’s in 1907 is almost an assured defeat. Ah well, can’t win em’ all. acmac's prediction: dead by 1911ish.