someone please enlighten this fool to the truth.

odds are 1/14 to get a country twice in a row, 1/7 to get it once in a one off- but if you get it once, the next game is UNRELATED!!!! Getting a country, doesn't affect the next game!!1

The odds go down significantly, I think he might be right. I haven't had England for a looong time though...

Yes it does. They are related (I'll try and explain it in a bit)

yes it does.

If you get a Russia in your first ever game, your chances of getting her in game two are 1/14 and the other odds are increased relative

"odds are 1/14 to get a country twice in a row"

@ rule britannia, you idiot
by your system the odds of getting a country twice in a row are 1/49, not /14

you times together the odds... not just randomly add the denominators.... you disgrace ;)

ok, 1/49- this is true!

but if i pick a flower out of an unlimited number once, then if i pick on the next week, the odds of picking the same breed are the same!!!!

so you still, against everyone else who has commented, and with no knowledge of this site's policy, claim I'm wrong about the odds changing?

The software that assigns countries is not random. It does look at what countries you have played, and takes into account what you have played most recently.

There are figures saved in the database about your current country bias. These are values between 0 and 1. Each time you enter a game the value for that country is decreased, and then they are all multiplied by a scalar. The system looks at which player has the least balanced country allocations and then semi-randomly allocates them, and then cycles on through doing the same for the others. This is possibly oversimplified, but I can't think how best to explain it.
But in a very short answer: Yes your past allocations will affect your future ones, but the more you play the less effect this will have.

Side point to any learned (pronounced lur-neh-d) ones: Do you think this should be removed for anonymous games?

I love how you try to personally shame me, but end up making a fool of yourself :)

imagine im a noob. I get Russia. After I've picked Russia, then it's 1/7 who I pick in the next game. If you look at 1000 games, then yes, the odds are they'll be equal, but not with 2 games!

I'd say no, but I don't play many anonymous games, and I'm far too lazy to check out someones past games, so perhaps my opinion is invalid:]

However, just because you have the possibility of figuring out who someone is in a given game, is that really a serious issue? In my mind no, as I think it goes against the spirit of anonymous games in the first place, but like I said, I don't play them often.

O.K fine, I didn't know the game did that- was my initial question. If it were random, I'd be right.

I don't know what you are calling him an idiot. Its a perfectly valid belief, particularily for a new player, and that was how it used to be for a long time.

Obviously it doesn't matter now because the chances are modified, but if you assume that nothing was modified, I think it actually makes sense. Rule Britainia admitted twice that the chances of picking the same country twice in a row is highly unlikely, 1/49 actually.

However, probability can be complex, and in a normal unmodified situation you would always have a 1/7 chance of picking a certain country no matter what the previous country was. They are unrelated, because there are two different probabilities involved. I think Dave missed this point by Rule in one of his statements.

Either way, you really shouldn't shout out insults during a rational discussion where anyone can be wrong. For all I know, what I just stated is false.

Not certain Cent, but I think they know each other, so its more along the lines of friendly banter than genuine contempt.
Just to add a bit to what i said, the system still isn't determinable - you can't guarentee who you get, although you could be very likely to become a certain nation.

He's a friend from outside, and I told him that this was the system and he thought he knew better so i bet him I was right and it became relatively competitive...
But I'm clearly joking so enough of the self righteous accusations thanks. :)
@ figlesquidge: thanks

And to be fair he made it pretty personal by mentioning my name in the title.

It's 1/7 you get the same country twice in a row, it's 1/49 you get a particular country twice in a row. But it's interesting, so the system makes it such that you are more likely to get countries you've played the least?

That is correct. This was introduced with the 0.9 release series due to such a high number of people complaining they kept getting the same nation.