Reactions to Vashta’s comments:

(1) KAKARROTO

You say “All the arguments about not saving Kaka are still true.” I guess you’ll have to repeat them, because I don’t understand them if they are still true.

I did not know Kaka’s alignment. If you check my posts on the day we lynched Kaka, you’ll see that I was somewhat reluctant to lynch him, but I was still convinced that he could be ghost based on his reaction to Ezio’s item claims. I said all this in the thread.

I really didn’t have much unique knowledge about Kaka at all other than his item, so I’m not sure what you would have expected me to say. He stopped posting in the QT completely by N3. And he did not say all that much when he posted there before then – he said basically the same stuff that he said in the game itself. I really did not have anything to add about him that I didn’t say in thread, and I certainly did not trust him enough to “save him,” even if that were possible.

So, what is the argument about Kaka? Should I have just magically known his alignment because he made several posts in the Walkie Talkie QT? If that is your argument, I don’t understand how anyone could agree with it.

(2) MY REACTION TEST

You don’t seem to understand my plan. I’ll try to do a better job of explaining it. I did not plan to tell an “obviously incriminating story.” I knew that the only person with access to the Walkie QT other than me was the ghost. So I tried to tell a story that only the ghost would know for a fact to be false, so that the ghost might react differently than everyone else. As a bonus, the ghost would not have known that I in fact had access to the QT, so he might reveal some detail about the true QT that only he would know.

For example, the ghost would see a story that he uniquely knew was false, and he would know real details about the QT to disprove it, (i.e., nobody mentioned DemonOverlord, nobody used the name “Harold Shawn,” there was no ghost imposter), but he would not be able to say any of those details. I imagined that the ghost would either dismiss my story outright but be unable to articulate why, or else he would be afraid to engage with my story at all.

That is the kind of reaction test that I think is effective: say something that people have to react to, and do it in a way that isolates some knowledge that your target has, which others don’t have.

Of course no reaction test is perfect. This can all be faked. But in forcing people to react to stuff in the moment, you have more opportunities to judge authenticity and sincerity. I’ve explained why I judged Vashta’s reaction, and rdrivera’s reaction, for example, to be authentic and sincere.

BREADCRUMB

I also had some concern that people would see me come forward with the truth about the QT, and would think that I was lying scum for changing my story. So I dropped a breadcrumb in my reaction test to make clear that at the time I told that story, I intended it to be a reaction test.

I said in my reaction test post that I used the name Harold Shawn in the QT. That was not true. Harold Shawn is a character who appears in one episode of the FX series Justified.

http://justified.wikia.com/wiki/Harold_Shawn

Harold Shawn does only one thing of note: he lies and pretends to be someone he is not. Specifically, he pretends to be Waldo Truth in order to keep a family's disability checks coming.

I dropped this breadcrumb so that I could make absolutely clear that my intent in telling my initial QT story was to lie and evaluate reactions.

Any other questions?

And is anyone willing to go back to look at my other posts to see whether they fit with the theory you have about my alignment? Surely somebody who is playing cares to do that. 5 hours, 20 minutes to go.

OFFICIAL Vote Count 7.5
Balki Bartokomous (4) VashtaNeurotic, Oztra, zorclex, rdrivera2005
Oztra (3) Balki Bartokomous, damian, snowy801

End votes: 1/4 VashtaNeurotic

5 hours remain
Balki is scheduled to be lynched

4 hours to go.

I don't mind being mislynched. But it would be disappointing to be mislynched by people who just don't care.

Gah...the idea that you can't read someone when you have access to their private thoughts is ludicrous. If they're being consistent it's more likely they're town. Like Balki, even if you weren't sure if Kaka was ghost, you certainly had reasons it was LIKELY they weren't....

Access to their private thoughts? What do you mean by that? I did not have access to Kaka's private thoughts. I had access to what he wrote in a private QT with a stranger.

I'd be happy to paraphrase every message from Kaka in the QT to give you a sense of just how little I had available from him.

But I'm really not sure why you think that access to the QT with Kaka would make me think that he likely was not ghost. That does not make sense to me. In any event, you might review the day we lynched Kaka. I was quite reluctant to vote for him, but I was persuaded by Bo's case about Kaka's reaction to the Ezio item gambit.

In my next post, I will paraphrase everything that Kaka wrote in the QT in order to give you some idea of what I had to work with in terms of reading him that others did not have.

"But I'm really not sure why you think that access to the QT with Kaka would make me think that he likely was not ghost. "

It's almost as if I've been in one of those QTs before and know how useful it is....And my issue is you weren't reluctant enough. Did you propose an alternative? No. Did you even allude to your walkie? No. And do that, you could be lying, I expect you are, but whatever.

##Call GM, is it okay if I paraphrase posts from the QT? I'm not going to quote. But I am going to paraphrase each message from one player individually.

@Balki - My biggest problem is that the day I had time to make some readings and analisys was yesterday, and I lost a lot of time and energy digging your fake stuff (I even looked a part of that episode of Justified). And that was just a waste. Today is holiday here and I have visitors at home.

Balki has been obfuscating, lying and doing everything to make sure the pool of suspects is as large as possible all game until now, where he needs 2 or 3 lynches that are not him.

Oh and wasting our time

I will try to take another look later. Can someone tell me why Oztra and not Zorclex? A had a lot more of a bad feeling re-reading Bald then Oztra.

Are we actually letting Balki pull an HR, seriously at the very least this claim is suspect enough to warrant actual proof, right?

it's not like Balki could be ghost, haunted kaka, got access for the QT and is trying to figure out who else had the phone because of something revealed in the QT we are not privy to.

Or is trying to get himself out of the corner he painted himself into by saying "it's just a prank bro. Seriously, just a reaction test."

##Call GM, please see my question above.

@rdrivera, I'm genuinely sorry to inconvenience you, and sorry to cause you to do work that is not helpful. When you said you were doing that, I revealed my reaction test right away, so that you were not wasting time.

But all that has nothing to do with my alignment. I did my test very early in the day so that we would have time to discuss the results. If you just don't have time to play, that's too bad. Try your best to get it right with the time you have. And I'm here to answer questions if you have them.

##GM NOTE:
@Balki: Regarding a hypothetical qt. All rules outlined in the game start post and via subsequent GM notes must be observed. No links, sharing, copy/pasting, providing transcripts, timestamps, etc. Hypothetically paraphrasing a qt is okay so long as it does not violate the rules.

"Balki has been obfuscating, lying and doing everything to make sure the pool of suspects is as large as possible all game until now, where he needs 2 or 3 lynches that are not him."

Vashta, what have I done to make sure the pool of suspects is large? I don't understand this comment. I have done more scum hunting than anyone. Read my day 2. I was all over HR and Maniac before Ezio claimed his scan.

I have provided my thoughts at great length. I have made many attempts to question people, to create useful reactions, to scumhunt.

You generally just assert stuff, with no reasons, and insult people.

So, if you are actually town critiquing my play, I encourage you to use specific examples.

And I don't know what "pulling an HR" is. I tried a reaction test today at a time when I was in no danger of being lynched. If anything, that should indicate to you that I am town, trying to solve the puzzle.

pool of suspects for ghost. I recall you saying you had no idea who could possibly be ghost a couple days ago

Cool. Here is a paraphrase of Kaka's comments in the QT:

PARAPHRASE OF KAKARROTO'S WALKIE QT STATEMENTS AND WHY I DID NOT KNOW HIS ALIGNMENT

Night 1
1. Handle: Little Girl - Joke post about walkie-talkie and radio terms.
2. Handle: Little Girl - Second Joke post about walkie-talkie terms.
3. Handle: ghug – Says he is “Town,” says that the QT can be useful if we can learn to trust each other and we can exchange information. Makes joke about using the QT thread to share advice about our personal lives.
4. Handle: vecna - Responds to my concern that I really only see downside about sharing information here. Says that if I don’t share much info, he won’t share much info. Says that I should be glad, at least, that I did not get an item that could be harmful.
5. Handle: vecna – Urges me to share info sooner rather than later, as we only have the nights to talk.
6. Handle: Polly - Says he wants a cracker.
7. Handle: Jamiet99uk – says that he does not think Ikaneko is Oracle and that he thinks Balki’s gun claim is real, but he is not sure about Balki’s alignment.
8. Handle: Katniss – says he is going away for a bite to eat and that he won’t be around for a while.
9. Handle: Sherlock – talks about why he does not believe Ikaneko’s Oracle claim. Basically, he sees that Ikaneko was about to be lynched and thinks that Oracle was perfect thing for scum to claim because there was a good reason for Oracle not to be NKed. Thinks Ikaneko wants to survive a long time to manipulate the town.
10. Handle: Tyler – makes a fight club joke about the rules of walkie talkie QT.
11. Handle: krellin – makes longer post urging me to share more using some authentic Krellin language. Urges me to use the QT more now because this is the only time we can be sure that mafia or ghost have not tapped into the QT.
[NOTE: all the while, I have been mostly explaining why I am reluctant to post here and give mafia/ghost information, whether the other person on the walkie is mafia/ghost, or the mafia/ghost gain access to the thread later]
12. Handle: sad face – says that he thinks DemonOverlord is more likely to be scum than Maniac, but says that Ikaneko has to go first.
13. Handle: November – argues that Maniac is scum (he is essentially arguing with himself here).
14. Handle: December – says that he thinks it was a mistake to talk to me and that he’ll be gone for a bit.
15. Handle: Kakarroto – responds to my request that he identify himself. Says that he just put the requested !! in the thread to show that he is Kakarroto. Says that he thinks it is possible I am scum, but says it’s worth the risk to talk to me.
16. Handle: Kakarroto – responds to my claim that I am Watcher. Seems to believe me. Says that he will follow me plan. (NOTE: my plan was that I would provide a code in the main thread if I found something out with my “watches.” I was trying to spring a trap to find out if Kakarotto was scum. I would essentially identify myself as Watcher, and say that I was someone else entirely. And then I would see if scum killed the “Watcher” identified in the QT. This plan was abandoned when Ezio came forward as the Watcher.)

Night 2
1. I post a plan here to identify each other moving forward. Basically, the plan is that we both post some number of count posts (Count 1, Count 2, etc.) and then only the two of us know how many of the Count posts each one of us posted. Then, later, only the two of us will know how many of the posts each one of us posted (e.g., Kakarroto posted 7 of the Count posts). Then we could signal each other using the count (e.g., if Kaka posted 7 count posts, Watcher is Bo, if Kaka posted 6 count posts, Watcher is Vashta, etc.).
2. I got no response to anything all night.

Night 3
1. I post that I am still alive and ask if he is still alive.
2. Handle: Kakarroto – Says that he is glad to learn that I am still alive and asks who I watched each day.
3. I ask him to confirm his identity by telling me how many of the Count posts he made.
4. No response.

Night 4
1. I post that I am still alive, and ask if anyone is out there.
2. No response. [NOTE: he probably saw the watcher die on D4 morning, and this is when he figured that he had been talking to Ezio earlier, and that only the ghost was left. But in fact, I obviously was not the Watcher, I was using that to spring the trap I referred to earlier, but was never able to spring said trap because it became clear that Ezio was the Watcher]

That’s it.

I had a slight town read on Kakarroto based on these interactions. But I certainly could not rule him out as Ghost or Mafia. I found him to be a little too trusting, as if he had less to fear from being known in the QT. And I was surprised that he asked me to write about who I watched in the QT. To me, it was pretty clear that there was a high likelihood that the ghost would eventually get a hold of the QT, and so I didn’t think it would make sense for town to want to put the watch targets and results in the QT.

In the end, I was persuaded that Kakarroto was most likely ghost after seeing Bo’s case on Kakarroto’s reaction to the Ezio item reveals. I wrote about all that extensively in the main thread, and y’all can evaluate the sincerity of my thoughts on that by reading my posts on the day we lynched Kakarroto.

It is only now, where you need to have specific lynches or else we'd think you are ghost, that you come up with Oztra

Balki Bartokomous
Night-6 23:29
page 76 Snowy, literally everyone is a candidate. I don't have a firm grasp of who is the ghost, and I don't have a firm grasp of anyone who is definitely not ghost except for me. That shouldn't surprise you.

Maybe when you play mafia, it is really easy for you to tell who is what alignment, and this is the one game where it just turns out you were mostly wrong, but that hasn't been my experience.

Amazing how quick you've gone from that to now

Vashta: "pool of suspects for ghost. I recall you saying you had no idea who could possibly be ghost a couple days ago"

Sure. I have said that I don't know who ghost is. And I won't pretend like I do. This game is hard. But I have written extensively about who I think is more likely ghost, and who isn't. Read the results of reaction test. I get non-ghost reads on 4/6 people.

@Vashta, I have news for you -- I still don't have a firm grasp of who is ghost. But I am making educated guesses based on the information I have.

And I don't know what you mean about needing to have specific lynches.

Why don't you read the reasons behind my suspicions (I have written about them at length) and evaluate whether they seem like a sincere process or not? You seem to be accusing me of scumhunting.

By the way, I appreciate that at least Vashta is making arguments, asking questions, and participating...

Also, this is the point you've just made Vashta:

- Balki said he was unsure about who was ghost on N6;
- Now Balki seems more sure;
- He must be scum.

Here is another way to evaluate the same data if you get off Confirmation Bias Island:

- Balki said that he was unsure who was ghost on N6;
- Now Balki seems more sure;
- EUREKA -- this fits with Balki's explanation that he wanted to put together a reaction test in order to hunt for ghost. So I should read his reactions post, and see whether it looks like his process was sincere, or manufactured.

Oh the ika argument also still stands. By flavor it's clear he revealed the ghost. You fit his mo for reveal