^

Zzzzzzzzzzz

Seriously guys what’s up with this game. I know I haven’t been in here that much either but damn. I can’t say everything. And when I do does it even matter? It would be nice if others asked questions prodded and did more than just throw up a vote and bounce *cough* vash *cough*

Vash:

Can you give an actual opinion some time please?

Probably not.

He’d probably vote for himself if he were the top wagon.

Why's he your top scumread?

I don't know what questions to ask. I have a solid townread on Byon for his overall play and also Prado, but this is mostly based on my scumread of Snowy and Ghug. I think they were actively pushing the lynch of towns and let me to be the last because I am an easy lynch after that stupid D2 and also because I already claimed VT so I am not the Hunter. Obviously, it's clear to me because I know I am town so it's
hard to convince others.
I also asked Snowy many times to to build a case on me and he never did.

ghug:

Why would my top be anyone else. Vash’s behavior has been the most up front in how egregious it is. His death won’t link him to any other scum, but nothing he did would anyway.

Here’s the way I see things: as has been stated before, if we mislynch this phase we will lose (unless, by some miracle, we mislynch the Hunter and the Hunter’s target happens to be scum – in which case we slightly postpone our loss). That means that we have to be confident in our lynch. I disagree with CB, suggesting that we have to be 100% certain, because there is no such thing as 100% certainty in this game (unless you’re the cop and you’ve successfully scanned someone as guilty – but, even then, you have to convince everyone else that you’re the cop).

That being the case, we have no room to policy lynch someone for lurking – we have to go for someone against whom we can build a credible argument. Much as I dislike the way he has gone about this game, I cannot, in all good conscience, vote for Vashta, because I know nothing about him. I do not believe that his absence is in and of itself evidence of scum (even if people say that silence benefits scum the most). Admittedly, it is also not evidence of his being town. In short, we have no evidence either way on Vashta, and so to lynch him now poses too great a risk. If we wanted to do that, we should have done it ages ago when we had less to lose.

On top of that, bear in mind not just what happens if we are wrong but what happens if we are right! If we vote for Vashta and he is town, we lose. But if he is scum – fandabidosy – he will give us no real information on the last two scum. On the other hand, if we vote for someone like ghug and are wrong the outcome is the same (we lose). But if we are right then we have far more to go on because he has actually been present and interacted with other people.

The point is that, regardless of who we vote for, if we are wrong we lose. Which means we want our case to be credible, to increase the chances of being right, and we want our vote to be as useful as it can be if it is correct. I maintain that I believe I have made a credible case against ghug (even if he disagrees with it) and would encourage all of you who haven’t already done so to strongly consider joining me. If you disagree with my case, then make a credible case for someone else. That includes making a credible case against Vash if you can! I would happily jump on a more credible candidate, if someone convinces me that there is one. Just don’t vote for Vash simply because he hasn’t been here…

“That being the case, we have no room to policy lynch someone for lurking”

No one’s doing that.

As CB stated, it comes down to looking at what has happened when he IS here, and I want you to tell me in good faith that the way Vash has interacted with this game rings precisely 0 bells of suspicion for you.

“But if he is scum – fandabidosy – he will give us no real information on the last two scum.”

Already pointed that out. It ain’t gonna come. There’s no point in whining about it.

Kench, who's scum with me?

^^^^
A moment of sincerity?

^^^^
Doesn’t understand the logical necessity of using hypotheticals to reason with someone?

Prado, I'm probably gonna head back to Rivera in about an hour.

:(

@TrPrado, in all honesty, Vashta's interaction with this game rings precisely zero bells of suspicion with me. In fact, it rings precisely zero bells with me at all. He has given us nothing to go on, just coming on once each phase and voting along with the top wagon. I honestly don't think that is indicative - just annoying.

As for the no information point, I'm not whining about it. I'm reiterating the point that you've already made, but coming to a different conclusion: namely that a mislynch is a loss, regardless of the person lynched - but at this stage, a correct lynch could provide valuable information, just not if it's Vashta (as you yourself have pointed out). I'm saying we should vote for someone that we can make a credible case against, based one what they've said and how they've voted. I don't believe that has been done with Vashta (I think he has made that nigh on impossible by not being around) and as such I am not voting for him. If your case is based on how he is acting compared to how he usually acts, then I cannot comment because I have never played before.i would much rather try and take the facts (scant as they are) of the game in front of me, ignoring all meta.

If I am misunderstanding your case against Vash, then please explain it once more, because it is not clear to me.

@ghug, I'm not sure about that. But I'd probably go for the two people who seem least keen on the idea of voting for you, namely Snowy and TrPrado.

##VOTE rd

@Kench,

RE: Vash, there's a meta argument here too. He often lurks hard, but town Vash cares about solving the game at least a little bit and usually comes out to play at least towards the end of the game. Scum Vash will lurk into oblivion and hope that there are enough people wary of "just lynching the lurker" like you are to let him off the hook.

RE: Me, I think you came into this phase thinking "I need a new perspective" and then "ghug at least deserves to be questioned", which somehow warped itself into "ghug is definitely scum". I still don't see anything in your case that suggests anything beyond the former, but instead of questioning, you've just decided. I think you're town, so I need to change your mind at some point, but I really have no idea how I'm going to do that when your case lacks substantive reasoning for why I'm actually scum and you're barely willing to engage with me.


I have another hour or so before I get to work, but then I think I'm gonna be on pretty sparingly the rest of the day.

Let me just say a few things while I have time

First off, I haven't had time to play this game properly. I haven't done a single reread, I barely skimmed the top of the posts and despite all that I've tried to chime in whenever I can

Second, I gave who I felt was scummy pretty periodically and despite the seichuto lynch I figure I'm at least on a better track than most of you. rdrivera seems to try to imply that you need some gradiose case to justify a vote but really when was the last time you saw an extensive case that wasn't full of shit? Last I saw was the one by bo on... someone who he thought was the ghost on M30 and that turned out to be anyway.

I would say that the reason I scum read him is because of that comment he made about disbelieving Tom's claim but really it's because I think he's scummy and frankly at this point finding scum is like shooting fish in a barrel.

All I've got is rivera > ghug > guak > vash > kench, and if you think I've been fooling around and not taking this game seriously, well, mea culpa. At least I'm not vash

So anyway I'll try to peek in as I go home and possibly in between but unlike some I'm not quite hardcore enough to literally pull over to participate in EoD so I don't know what to tell you. Best of luck I guess

so yeah

@Ghug, well I honestly don't think I'm going with "ghug is definitely scum". I think I'm going with "at the moment I can see a credible argument for ghug being scum". Clearly I'm not sure how this game works, because I thought I was meant to make suggestions and you were supposed to refute them. I've made my suggestions and there's no point asking "why did you actually vote for x", because you've given your reasoning each time. I am suggesting that it is also possible that you are scum and that your actions have primarily been about gaining plausible deniability.

I am voting for you, because you are the only one against whom I've been able to build what to me feels like a credible case. If someone else makes a more compelling argument, I would be happy to shift. I'm not sure what else you want me to say...

If questions are what you require then I guess... What is it about my argument from a couple of pages back that doesn't stack up for you?

And if not you, then who and why? You may have already explained this - but I'd ask you to explain it again for those of us who feel like they've missed it.

To me, your whole case appears to me to be:
1. Here's something ghug did.
2. Here's why it seems like he did it.
3. If he were scum, I guess he could have done it for this reason.
4. Repeat 1-3.

You could do that for literally anyone, and it doesn't capture any matter of likelihood. You've acknowledged I've had reasons for doing everything as town. Can you say the same about rd, who's clearly been around but hasn't even bothered with the pretense of searching for scum for days? Or Vash, who apparently doesn't feel a need to read the game but also doesn't feel a need to sub out? I can't really make such a claim about snowy, but I also see less towniness coming out of him than any of the rest of you. What *does* make you think someone is town? If it's a process of elimination thing, it at least makes some sense (though frankly I think I'm demonstrating more town motivation here than anyone), but you should make that explicit if it is what's going on, because trying to confirmation bias your way into a case based on actions is unnecessary misdirection.

If he were scum, I guess he could have done it for this *other* reason.

##VOTE RDRIVERA

We’ll catch He Who Has Done Precisely Nill tomorrow.

If I'm absent, remember the importance of switching to prevent scum meddling. Unless it's switching to me, obviously.

I think rd is going to tie it, and the only way to switch to prevent that means ghug dying, which likely means a loss.

Someone can switch from the other side too.

Right now, it kinda seems like we're toast though, you're right.