I'd like to think took too much notice. Probably didn't factor in their waxing my ass, honestly.

Special shoutout to Austria, aka Pete U -- GG, you plain outplayed me the whole way. I hope he wins this thing.

Autumn, 1905, Diplomacy

So Where to From Here:

England:

Damn that French fleet! It's really slowing things down for England! It's going to be a bitch tying up all those units against that rouge fleet. Plus France can take back Spain with some luck and perhaps negotiation. That's the place to be. So what to do? Ask France to kindly move to NAO? Offer something tangible? Wait it out (not very appealing!) I'd go the offer something tangible and get things moving maybe...

Russia:

Bummer. Ankara gone (unless there is some weird Austrian flip-flop, but probably not good form to be switching sides too rapidly when trust is important). Moscow gone. Things look kinda finished. There isn't much Russia can offer anyone right now, although they can still mess with Germany somewhat and I expect they will. Perhaps a rouge Russian fleet à la France? Germany might want to guard against that possibility!

Germany:

Kinda undefended there Germany: What's protecting Den? I don't think Germany can really afford to be this lax about defense with England. Sweden may just walk right on in and what will you do about it? They could really use the build. Paris isn't guaranteed. Neither Warsaw. Kiel need protection. It's hard being in the middle. You need friends, but it doesn't pay to be too trusting. Maybe a deal with France? Just to keep England honest? Maybe you can trust England...

France:

Just, in my opinion, take Spain if you can. Love the fleet in Norwegian keeping England busy! That must be sooo frustrating! How's Germany? You guys talking much?

Italy:

Thought you and Austria were tight man and that fleet would be going west. I guess it pays to be cautious and not turn you back. Besides, England is busy right now. You have time. Doing very well. Playing your cards tight to your chest and making the small gains while keeping up defense. It's a hard power the expand to start, but once it gets going... Would be great to see those Austrian armies moving away, but I'm sure you guys will work it out.

Austria:

You got the armies, but now to move them somewhere. It's hard with those Italian armies at your doorstep I'm sure, but you have to make a call. I guess you and Italy can chip away bits and pieces, but you don't really want the rest of the board moving into position to stalemate a good alliance. Getting over that stalemate line is going to be hard.

So, still quite even center count wise. Russia looking like they could be next out, and France may try and stretch for a draw.

No-one looking like crossing over the stalemate line (England would if they could take out that damn French fleet!)

Getting very interesting. Don't you just love this stage of the game. Desperate! Every position and center counts and trust plays a huge role!

Look forward to the next thrilling turn!

Now to read the dean's lecture and see what I've missed (this was a bit free-form of the top of my head looking at the map and not referring to the previous posts, so have probably missed really obvious moves and alliances!)

Question for students: How can Russia survive (moves and diplomacy)? Can they offer anything or threaten their way out of the inevitable?

Shouldn't Russia help Austria? With Austrian cooperation couldn't they keep Warsaw, Sevastopol, and take Ankara? In the north, what do you think about a move like this:
Baltic S North Sea to Denmark, Norwegian to North Sea to try to get the French fleet to North sea? Might it be worth it to try to slow Germany and England?

The northern moves would work, assuming that England is intending to self-bounce in den. Helping Austria is essentially what I suggest under my comments for Austria, but I'm not sure Austria will go for it -- the help Russia can offer probably isn't worth picking up Italy AND Germany as enemies, unless he knows that England is stabbing Germany, in which case Austria should worry about an English solo anyways.

And that's Russia out. I haven't got time to comment right now. Tomorrow at this time?

...although I will say this: It's highly likely now that the rough French fleet is to be disbanded which will mean English freedom. They will be keen to get some armies onto the continent but also I assume to crack the Med and get some Iberia. A fleet and an army? Plus a retreat to GoL! Probably kinda playing into English hands taking French centres as they will benefit the most in the long run in my opinion.

Fleets for Italy? That bounce in Ven looks like a deal to keep Austria in Trieste (to stop a fleet build?) Austria and Italy still a huge threat!

Germany would be happy Russia is gone (taking the Russian centres probably most beneficial to Germany than anyone else!) Austria and Germany working together for mutual benefit, but Italy must now decide to go after Italy or Germany, and Austria ain't got no fleets... Germany likely to get squeezed between Austria and England.

Austria, Italy and England all fighting it out while France will likely keep the 2 armies and try and play for a draw. I don't like Germany's chances right now but still time of course. I need more time to study the board...

Actually, I don't really like France's chances either now I look closer. Perhaps France and Germany need to have a little talk?

Interesting turn . . . commentary should be up tomorrow night.

Autumn, 1905, Builds

Predictions:

England: Fleet Lon & Army Lvp? England needs to get armies over the pond and now is the time. England will be hoping that Norwegian fleet goes poof!

Italy: Fleets in Rom & Nap? Italy needs to keep England out of the Med and that fleet in GoL is going to be a problem now. I guess an army in Ven is also an option, but may break the delicate equilibrium with the Austrian alliance.

Austria: Army in Budapest obviously. Look out Germany!

Germany: An army in Munich would be handy, but a fleet in Kiel would be smart too. I dunno… I’m going with the fleet. 1 just doesn’t cut it right now. Needs to protect Munich at all costs and has the armies to do it. May be a sacrifice though

France: Smartest would be to keep MAO and Spain I think and talk things over with Germany and Italy. Really handy to be in Por and Spain and sit things out for awhile…

Plenty of diplomacy available during the builds, especially for France, Germany & Italy.

Getting exciting!

What, no predictions on my state's builds?

the only thing Turks are building now are low quality manufactured goods in Italian and Austrian sweatshops lolol

I'm going to try to predict the builds as well. I haven't looked at texas's predictions yet!

France: remove nwg and mao. There really aren't any good choices here: nwg is a nice unit to have, but with two English builds coming, it's not going to be of much use. Likewise, mao is an important space, but in this case, it doesn't border mar. No matter what France keeps, however, he loses spa next year if England and Italy cooperate, and bre probably won't last long after that.

England: build fleets lvp and lon. Armies are needed to get across the stalemate line on land, but they're only useful if the fleets are in place to convoy them. In England's position, I would build two fleets this year, and then build armies whenever possible from here on out while using the fleets to control important convoy spaces. However, it may be necessary to build one more fleet in order to hold mao, and more will be needed if England decides to pursue a Mediterranean strategy.

Germany: build fleet kie. That English fleet in Denmark is bad news, and Germany needs the ability to support a move to Baltic, defend Kiel, and help defend Holland. There's a threat of Austrian armies coming for Munich, but it would be easier to get Italian help against Austria than to get any sort of help against England.

Italy: Build fleet Nap, army Venice. These builds provide the most flexibility. If Italy decides he wants fleets in the west, he can move adr-ion, nap-tys, and have ven hold the fort. However, he also has the option of letting adr continue to play defense while moving the new army towards Munich or into France. Finally, having the army there could be the beginning of an attack on Austria, although at this point, it is more likely just to be a deterrent against an Austrian stab.

Austria: Build a Vie. Once again, a build here gives more flexibility than one in Budapest, as it can head towards Germany or towards Italy with equal power. Austria already has a slight surplus of armies in the Balkans anyways.

Apparently, we disagree on most of our predictions . . .

Sorry, I didn't study the map so well where Austria is concerned. I agree with the dean. Army in Vie. Otherwise I stand by my predictions. Everyone's decided except Austria and France so far...

Sorry President Eden also. I predict you Bob build a sandcastle on the banks of the Black Sea...

As far as the disagreements go:

France: We both agree Norwegian should go and Brest is undefendable, so really it's a question of Mar or Por. Personally I prefer Por, but may be trickier to pull off... We'll see I'm sure.

England: I guess they already have 1 army they need to ship out, but they will have a spare Norway fleet and Germany will be busy. I guess it can wait a year, but it's the hard ask for England and the sooner armies are convoyed over the better. Having said that, fleets can still make significant gains so 2 fleets isn't an outrageous idea. It's the English curse isn't it!

I think they are the main disagreements. All the options are good and the diplomacy will play a part I'm sure...

France could always hold a grudge ;P

If Germany is smart they'll ally with France. Taking French centres now will just help others. I stand by protecting Munich and playing Italy and Austria against each other. Now's the time to put the pressure on that little alliance!

Spring, 1906, Diplomacy

Those damn French!

So, the builds are in, and predictions weren't too bad. The Dean was right about England building 2 fleets, but besides that, the only big discrepancy was France. Seems the French are out on a suicide mission against England! Ouch for England! No wonder they need the fleets!

So:

England: Not so great, German fleet, 2 French fleets. What a pain! I guess chase them out until France is dead. That's going to tie up a few units. Must have really pissed them off! It's very possible to keep them contained, but annoying and will mean progress is slow just when you need to be moving forward.

Italy: French disbands means you have to fight with England for Spain. The good news is England is kept busy, so the rush to keep them out of the Med isn't as urgent as it first seemed. I'm guessing the alliance with Austria will hold firm for at least another year while units are shuffled to the front.

Austria: Keep pushing north I guess. No point stabbing Italy right now is there? Germany is a little overextended and weak and you need those centres. Munich in your sights? It is a prize!

Germany: Brest is tantalizingly close, but is it defendable? The new fleet is welcome, but Munich needs defence. Luckily England is too busy to be too stabby hopefully. I guess taking Brest would be a huge favour to England but it's an army away from the front. Maybe best to let England deal with the French right now.

France: Out with a bang. Not hanging around for a draw? England must have really pissed you off! At least Spain may be safe with an English-Italian bounce this turn anyway.

Right now the Italian-Austrian alliance looks firmly in control and would have loved those French disbands. Expect Moscow to fall under the Austrian boot soon enough! I can't see how Germany can hold it.

Possibly time for Germany and England to look at the stalemate line and have some nice talks over tea and bratwurst.

Autumn, 1906, Diplomacy

What to say?

Italy & Austria continue to push forward (Italy a little hampered in Tyrrhenian due to a nice counter by England). Germany moving in the right direction, although maybe a little cautious on the front, giving Austria some room to move units up and get into position to take Moscow (maybe a move to Ukraine in hindsight would have been good, but it's easy to say that after the moves!)

England chasing the French fleets. Slowly but surely. Norwegian about to be kicked out to Barents or more likely NAO.

Germany and England being friends (what other choice?)

Not really a lot to say... Dean peterwiggin? Your thoughts?

I also expect England to offer France support into Spain. Whether or not France takes this offer up is another matter entirely.

Italy and Austria keeping plenty of units on their boarders in case they need to change direction.

Will this end in a 4 way draw? We're going to be hitting some walls soon in some areas possibly.

Neither England nor Germany look in a solo position right now so will no doubt coordinate. Not much room to get stabby for Italy or Austria either.

I'm guessing once France is eliminated, this will go 4 ways unless something radical happens.

This was an interesting turn for the west, but not so much for the east. Austria and Italy are very obviously allied now, and look to stay that way for a while. There's no effective way for one of them to stab the other, even if the desire was there. That said, Venice isn't the most useful place for an Italian fleet, and AI have a lot of units tied up behind the lines. They're in position to make slow but steady gains in both Russia and Iberia, but if they figure out a way to free up more units, they could probably break the stalemate line.

The west is a little more complicated. It seems pretty clear that France hates England. It's less clear, however, whether England and Italy are working together (my guess is they're talking, but haven't quite worked things out yet, primarily because Italy wants England on the other side of mao and England is worried about AI). It looks like Germany has reached cease-fires with both France and England. It would be quite a feat if Germany could organize a triple at this stage to counter AI. Germany certainly doesn't want to fight either of them, with Austria sending armies his way.

Looking ahead, here are some things to watch.
1. Will AI stay together?
2. Will the West band together against AI, or will EF continue to fight?
3. For the fall, does England support France into spa? Do EG make a supported attack on mar?
4. Is anybody going to try to win outright? England could have a shot if he can get into tun or mos, but that would require either a cooperative or dead France and probably some chaos between AI.

Right now, I see this game ending as an AEI or an AEIG.

bump

Two quick predictions:
1. Italy disbands the fleet in gre and rebuilds it.
2. England disbands nor next turn.

Or England disbands Barents?

Autumn, 1906, Builds

Business end.

...I think Italy may have messed up their Ankara order, or there would be 2 Italian fleets being build this turn. Luckily France is finished and England and Germany can get on with defence.

I'd expect Italy to make up for that this turn.

A lot will depend on what France disbands. I'm guessing from past moves, MAO.

Fleet for Italy in Nap. If they wanted an army they would have moved out of Ven. 2 more armies for Austria (9 armies!) Army for Germany.

Not really much to report. Questions anyone?

(What's the status of the undergrad game? I see it's still running, but without commentary... Shame :()

I just don't think many people who aren't in the game are following any more. And we're not allowed to ask questions. I would remind the players, however, that EOG statements are in order for this game?

EOG statements would be wonderful.

Question (although I doubt I'll get an answer. Don't be afraid to speak up, you at the back with your hand down your pants!)?

(Hopefully not influencing strategy too much here. Sorry if I am, but it is a SoW game!)

In light of the extremely strong and well organised Austro-Italian alliance (with the exception of that last Ankara bungle) and the guaranteed Brest centre, should England concede St. P. to a German army (which will be much more effective there against the opposition than a fleet)?

I haven't thought about it much, but I would say that in general, yes. Germany does not have enough units to deal with his front effectively. Having said that, England has a bunch of what are going to be worthless fleets up top once MAO is sealed (assuming Italy is successful at that) and St. Petes would be a good useful place for one of them.

So in general, I would say that yes, Germany needs more units, even potentially at the expense of England, but not necessarily in St. Petersburg if there is a more convenient place to trade... perhaps just Sweden?