@krellin - the only time we are certain is when we have own or lost and everything is revealed. It's a guessing game, we try to make them educated guesses, but all our analysis are guesses. I'll keep guessing and articulating them because I think it helps the good old US of A. You can keep ridiculing them and trying to close down the guessing game for your own aims. I wasn't in your previous games so I'll let others who were comment on whether your style has changed. It's interesting to see you have moved back towards your forum style when challenged.

* won not own.

My own early reads -

Squigs: Guak pointed out that he showed early interest in who holds power roles, which is interesting opening tactic for a townie to take. Even if it was just an innocent slip, the more I think about it the more I'm beginning to wonder if he's focusing on the night kill as well as today's. Still, he's been quick to contribute, and for me that's an early plus. Worth watching though.

Krellin: I haven't seen krellin play this game before, but based on his "eccentric" personality in our regular conversations, I can't say I'm terribly surprised or suspicious of his early play. I think he's tried to create some good discussion, and while I disagree with him specifically regarding WIFOM and day one lynchings, I don't think that's enough to craft a serious opinion on him either way. As with Squigs, readiness to contribute early on is a plus and he gets a pass from me on that alone. Slight town.

Chaqa: I made a point about not overreaching at the joke you made, and I maintain that it was just a joke and that there's nothing to read there, but the two posts you made a couple of hours ago, specifically this line - "I don't want my posting to affect their behavior quite yet" - have me shaking my head. If you're trying to build a theory against someone and get a bandwagon going, you need to spark a reaction. You need to talk to them so that they talk back to you. You're not going to convince anyone by saying that you'll get around to it later, as I learned quickly last game. You're just lurking right now, trying to make what you say seem important when it clearly has no value to the town, and that's an early scum tell from me.

ILN: Only a few posts so far, so not much to go off of, but I think he needs to clarify his comments against WD. That'll tell us an awful lot.

Uclabb: I have to admit that I learned a lot from seeing him play in the last game and I think he's an excellent player. On top of that, he was the first player to really push a discussion back on page one, and we're still talking about WIFOM now. I think we need as many discussion creators as possible and uclabb already proved he is one. Early town read from me.

Guak: I agree with him about the potential for information based on voting on day one, and he's right about this - in M3, the discussion leading up to the vote on day one proved extremely critical in the late stages. I also think he's been happy to call people out and try to bait a reaction, which is a human trait. Town read early on.

PJ: He hasn't given us a lot to go off of so far, and while he's contributed to an early discussion topic, the only thing he's done that tells me anything is his vote against krellin. It seems like a quick, jerky reaction to me to an early disagreement in our discussion. I'm not really sure what to make of this, so I'll go null right now, but I think he needs to expand on this vote against krellin before we go too much further along.

Semck: Again, he's only made a couple of posts, but in his opening he stated the obvious when he said that there's one fewer townie in this game than last, and I really appreciate him doing so because I hadn't actually noticed that myself. Maybe that's my stupidity shining through, but we've got to keep this in mind throughout. Otherwise, he offered his input in the discussion topics and took a shot at a reaction in his first post, which registers as moderately town to me.

WD: I think we got off on the wrong foot when discussing Chaqa, but most of that situation was a little out-of-whack so I'm going to let it go. Haven't seen a whole lot more since then, so null read right now.

Maniac: Oh boy. First of all, you made a good analogy with the poker remarks, but you're wearing it thin now. Once is enough. Secondly, really, grades? No… just… no. Thirdly, tag voting? What? Talk about trying to find ways to deflect attention from your own vote. Unless I'm completely missing the point you're trying to make with that, that is a horrible suggestion. Tack onto that that weird claim about me lying about reading the OP (why would I lie about reading the OP anyway, that wouldn't affect anything), you're basically making a fool of yourself by attacking people for things that, true or not, don't really say much about them. With all that you've got yourself a very unproductive day one. Even when considering your play last game where we often played superbly stupid together, you're even more erratic now. I'm thinking early scum.

Still waiting on YJ, ghug, y2k to post a bit more.

P.S. - If you didn't see last game, I played like shit, and while I think I started to pick up on some things, these reads make me seriously uncomfortable still. I want to end up being productive and giving the game my best shot this time, so if you think there's something I could look at or say differently that would make better sense, please please please tell me.

I'll be gone for awhile tonight, so I look forward to catching up later on.

Ok, got some sleep and all caught up. I'm going to disagree with the seriousness with which my vote on Chaqa was taken, but I'm going to regard that as water under the bridge for now.

@krellin The town strongly benefits from lynching day 1 because the lynch and vote information is not isolated. Even if we get a (relatively) innocent government official, the associations built up when he eventually catch one of these blue-blooded suckers will make the sacrifice worth it. Also, the chance that we do catch a lizard in the first day is hardly negligible. It's unlikely, but not zero. If there's a decision not to lynch, then that makes the discussion of that day incredibly less useful, because no one is under threat. Lizards would then be able to display characteristics identical to humans.

Now, when we start getting the lizards under the gun, they will likely want to be associated with a killing vote, but do their best to undermine the case against their fellows. That is precisely the direction Mr. Angel Eyes took in defending his fellow Rough Riders not too long ago.

Back to my own behavior: I've been convinced that while my vote on Chaqa doesn't actually hurt the human race, neither does unvoting him when I have no more substantial suspicions of him than anyone else in this room. So, ##UNVOTE for the time being.

I'd also like to point out that the unpredictability of the town is a two-edged weapon that was used quite effectively at some points in the last mafia game such as when Maniac put up a late vote on PE day 2. These are valuable and viable tactics that can keep the lizards guessing.

@Maniac - I think you misunderstand -- I have no problem with speculating or guessing. But let's do it when it is approprirate. For example, someone speculating that Chaqa is a lizard because he made an opening joke and voted for himself is STUPID. HAving someone put up 3 or 4 posts and having someone suddenly declare them suspicious is in itself suspicious.

I'm not stupid - I grasp the concept that it is a guessing game. What I do not grasp is that how a few of you, after having already played this game a few times, can come out of the gates being so damned gung-ho that you can read people as suspicious before the conversation has really even begun. It's ridiculous.

When I was mafia, I watched **days** or such discussion fly by, with rabid townies insisting that they *knew* who was suspicious, and then they lynched innocent townie after innocent townie. It was hillarious...and it was quite eye opening.

So...feel free to keep slinging accusation and bullshti on Day1 and I will continue to discuss things I believe are relevante. But I will not be voting - that I will tell you now.

@Bo - for what it's worth, the first time I played this game, I was *rabidly* pro-lynch on Day1. Because it's fun to play craps and cross your fingers and hope you get some scum. And we killed a townie...and no, despite all these assertions to the contrary, little to no info was gained.

2nd game I was on the fence about lynching...and the same thing happened...Day 1 innocent killed, very little information was gained. And since I was mafia this game I watched days and days of discussion wherein the town had *no* clue. i.e. the Day1 and even Day 2 lycnhes were so meaningless, and it is so easy for the lizards to blend in these days that no real information was gathered.

You can disagree with me...but I only base my stance on observation of history.

@krellin - I understand your point about no day one lynch and that you are basing that decision on the evidence of the games you played. I played M3 and think that because one of the mafia were in the running to be lynched, that the mafia had to save him. This gave us info. Also the alternative is no speaking, no pressure, no mistakes from the reptiles and mutant.

Your decision to not vote, when it seems everyone else will, in itself gives info and therefore reinforces why day one lynchs are useful.

So I havent been able to get on for a while, and I might not get on for the rest of the day, but I was excited to get on and discuss more. But I feel like nothing exciting has happened since I was last on. People have mainly been discussing WIFOM and whether or not to lynch day 1, which is good to discuss and figure out, but there hasnt been any real scum hunting (although I realize that there is not a whole lot to go on). The push on Chaqa has cooled down, no one has flung any new accusations, and WD even unvoted. The only things of value that have been posted are reads. I have only skimmed the reads, but nothing really jumped out at me as special or intriguing. I am going to re-read and hope I find something interesting to talk about, because this is just disappointing.

Maniac...I understand. IF the mafia are in the running to be lynched, day one lynch is great. Chances are slim this happens, therefore the whole Day 1 lynch is a gamble. I think the odds suck, therefore...

As fro my day 1 no-vote decision giving you info -- the only information it gives you is that krellin is trying to be cautious. What is does NOT tell you is why krellin is being cautious.

Frankly, mafia *totally* wants a Day 1 lynch, since the odds are totally in their favor.

Squigs - there is no real scum hunting becaus eyou actually need to generate discussion in order to get a read on people so that you may start making decisions.

My contrary discussion on various topic is creating dissent, and discussion.

INstead of dismissing the activity as not interesting, please chime in on these boring topics and let us start to get a read on you...

Are you FOR or AGAINST the day 1 lynch, and WHY?

In Mafia 1 I was a big proponent of the Day 1 no-lynch, and I died for it. I thought at the time that it would keep us from making a mistake. And while I still agree the chances of lynching a mafia are very small, I don't know if a no-lynch is the wise course.

I'm not opposed to the idea, but I'm not sure it makes sense.

Chaqa -- you died in part because I thought you were suspicious for not wanting a Day 1 no-lynch. I was wrong. In other words, you died because I *totally* misinterpretted your reasoning for not wanting to lynch on Day 1.

In other words - Day 1 "information" is *highly* suspect, wouldn't you say?

You were just being cautious, and I was just being blood thirsty... I'm the cautious guy, now, still stinging from poor other-game dead Chaqa...

Oh shit, hey peeps.

I just got reception back, and I still have to unpack and shower and eat and stuff before I can reread. This is just me saying hi for now.

Read, not reread.

krellin- You have already been rife with contradictions:

Contradiction 1: You start out in favor of accusing people and a day 1 lynch ,and now you are trying to shut it all down.

"lol But I must say, the instant flinging of wild ass accussations is as amusing as ever. Let's just string Chaqa up now and end the day. It's been a while since I killed that rat bastard....or should I say...**lizard**..."

This is probably a joke post, but it definitely leans pro-lynch/accusations. Whatever. But then:

"uclabb - they have to create new information posts? lol New information about what? Are you looking for a good pastry recipe? Perhaps on commentary on the odor of your breath? There is little to nothing to discuss right now. that being said...yes....this whole exchange is creating the information...and I'm just playing devil's advocate to get the ball rolling."

This is clearly in support of early accusations and first day lynching.

But now you say:

"So - after my experiences, I say NO VOTE on Day 1. We're just going to kill a townie and learn nothing in so doing, unless the mafia is three complete morons."

You also switch from being is support of the talking to calling us all "bloodthirsty clowns" and go on to say

"You guys come out of the shoot making instant accusations, and then purporting all things to be true that are not. I'm dismissing all your early posts are arrogant nonsense and mocking them as they rightfully deserve."

This is not consistent with you being mainly in favor of the accusations and just playing devil's advocate. This is an active attempt to shut down discussion.

Contradiction 2: You tried to dismiss using past games as evidence when others were using it, but now you are leaning heavily on past games to make your own arguments.

"i.e. let's discuss THIS game, and stop using references to things not everyone is aware of."

and now

"@Bo - for what it's worth, the first time I played this game, I was *rabidly* pro-lynch on Day1. Because it's fun to play craps and cross your fingers and hope you get some scum. And we killed a townie...and no, despite all these assertions to the contrary, little to no info was gained.

2nd game I was on the fence about lynching...and the same thing happened...Day 1 innocent killed, very little information was gained. And since I was mafia this game I watched days and days of discussion wherein the town had *no* clue. i.e. the Day1 and even Day 2 lycnhes were so meaningless, and it is so easy for the lizards to blend in these days that no real information was gathered."

among others.


There probably are other examples, but that was what I could put together quickly. Krellin is also pretty much objectively wrong about both day 1 lynches and WIFOM, and while being wrong isn't strictly a scum tell, it's not *not* a scum tell either (e.g. YJ was wrong quite a bit especially early in M3).

Oh, ##vote krellin at least for now.

Also, chaqa, I get the impulse to want to hold back an accusation to let it play out a little bit, but it's time to start getting it out there- we have less than 24 hours left now.

To be honest uclabb, even my theories aren't too strong. Not much to go on yet.

uclabb - you moron - I was *mocking* you when I said let's just string up Chaqa and end the day. I understand that sarcasm doesn't come well over the internet - but please.

As for my discussion of creating information -- please look at the TIME STAMP of when I posted that. It was within the first couple of hours of the came, where the resident psychics were already throwing around suspicions before anything of value had even been discussed.

For example, let's discuss day 1 vote or no vote. Let's dicsuss some process issues as to how we will keep track of inoformation, etc. Instead, a few of you -- like YOU - are jumping to fucking conclusions and voting for people based upon jack-shit nothing.

Frankly - your vote for me right now - it tells me that you are either a mafia looking forward to rail-roading someone who is an easy target (because I express opinions that are contrary to the crowd...i.e. GOD FORBID you have a dissenting opinion!!). OR, you are just a fool, and the type of person that votes for others at the drop of a hat. Either way, you are now OUT of my Circle of Trust. I won't be so stupid/foolish as to vote for you -- but I assure you that you are not a reasonable person by any stretch of the imagination. If you think I'm mafia and have just outed myself within the first day of play, you are truly a moron.

Bloodthirsty clowns comment: You just voted for me based upon idiocy. You are a bloodthirsty clown. Enough said. You make my point for me.

As for me being wrong on Day 1 lyunches and WIFOM -- you say I'm wrong, but don't bless us with the REASON I am wrong.

Again....this is exactly the shady type of move a lizard would do...find someone who has said something that break from the "accepted" belief and get the lynch mob running.

I'm trying to have discussions - and NOT jump to lynch. I'm trying to get a read on people by SPARKING CONVERSATION.

You are seeking blood. You are seeking to railroad anyone who disagrees with you to their death.

You tell me who is more suspicious? Me? Trying to have conversation -- trying to spark debate? Or You....rush to kill.

I'll let the others judge who is more suspicious.

All right, krellin, you say you base your opposition to day-1 lynches on the two games you've played. I wasn't in those games, so I can't evaluate that. What I can say is that in the game *I* played, town won in large part due to day-one lynches. So you'll agree, I'm sure, that I'm only following your own heuristic when I come out strongly in favor of them.

Also, the point that it raises the odds of a first scum kill from 0 to 29% is pretty irrefutible IMHO.

As for information -- if at least two people are hard pressed, there's almost a 40% chance on of them was Mafia, and a 49% chance one of them was scum. Those aren't awful odds.

semck - Here, let me cut to the chase....there is going to be a day 1 lynching. Of that I have no doubt - it is inevitable, because it is human nature. I put my opinion out here on the value of it TO SPARK DISCUSSION...because that is what we are supposed to do.

An, as I have predicted, also by human nature, the local blood-thursty fools have painted me as "suspicious" for daring to spark conversation and make disagreements.

So...I hope you can take this all for what it is: **discussion**.

Less relevant, to me, is my opinion or yours on day 1 lynching. More interesting to me is the monkeys that jump and screem and fling their poo and insist I must be guilty for having a discussion. Which doesn't make them lizards. But is sure as hell does make them ridiculous and illogical people that I know not to trust.

Also - let me point out that by painting me as suspicious and voting to lynch me because I dared express an opinion....that is ALSO a method people use to STIFLE CONVERSATION.

@krellin- We will have more success discussing this if you quote me then respond to the part you quoted as then it's easier to understand what you are ranting about, but I'll try anyway. You basically ranted about contradiction 1 without saying anything, but I'll boil down the argument and then give you another shot at it. You said:

"that being said...yes....this whole exchange is creating the information...and I'm just playing devil's advocate to get the ball rolling."

This is clearly in support of early accusations and to say it is a joke post is fabrication. You now are against early accusations (even ones with real substance like mine of you).

"For example, let's discuss day 1 vote or no vote. Let's dicsuss some process issues as to how we will keep track of inoformation, etc. Instead, a few of you -- like YOU - are jumping to fucking conclusions and voting for people based upon jack-shit nothing."

Process discussions are useful, but our goal is to find mafia. That should be our focus. I already have (along with everyone in the past 4 games) discussed day 1 votes. We should do it obviously. If you want, I can point you to my posts this game about it, or pj's, or squig's, or... You haven't discussed how to gather information. I have discussed two process issues. In fact, you know that, as you have responded to the process issues THAT I BROUGHT UP. You end this quote by straw-manning like you have all game, claiming that people are jumping to conclusions. Not a single person in this game has jumped to any conclusion, myself included.

I think the rest of your posts are just rambling, but it I am missing an actual point, please point it to me. To answer your question, though, I'm pretty sure that you, who have been actively trying to shut down conversation, are more suspicious than I am.

Of course....krellin isn't so intimidated. :P

"This is clearly in support of early accusations and to say it is a joke post is fabrication. You now are against early accusations (even ones with real substance like mine of you)."

You have NO substance to make an early accusation!!!!!!!!!

And again, it isn't your disagreement that it is troubling to me, it is the fact that you are contradicting yourself.