Damn, that was a lot of catching up lol.

As some said earlier, there is too much fuss about chaqa, he sounds more like a bored townie than anything else. What we should be considering is wardens scummy vote...

I'm definitely entertaining the idea of not lynching anyone on Day 1. I supported it the last game I played (Mafia II) as a good guy with the general idea that the town should make the first move, and shouldn't let the mafia/sk spill blood first. The numbers just seemed to lead to that conclusion. Personally, that resulted in me convincing myself all game that other townies were scum based on the initial first reads I was looking too much into. The fact of the matter is that the majority of us are good, and it really is silly to get so convinced of someone's guilt until there is some kind of reasonably damning evidence. We really can't get that kind of evidence on Day 1.

@semck- I think your criticism is fair, but it's not a criticism of what I actually said- instead, it is a criticism of something close to what I said. What I said was this-

"I think we have been too eager to change our votes at the last minute/ create the fear that we will change votes at the last minute."

I stand by this. It felt to me like people were putting positive utility (probably myself included if we are being honest) to switching votes around at the last minute (I know on day 2 of mafia it made me feel powerful, so maybe that's the psychology around it). I'm certainly not saying that we shouldn't make pressure votes or change our votes (of course not!)- what I'm saying is that it is not inherently good to switch one's vote late in the game. Is that more clear?

Also, krelly is doing a fine job of making himself look suspicious... As someone else said earlier ( too lazy to check who), the reptiles are the most vulnerable at the beginning, as votes are random and so there is a higher chance of them getting eliminated than later in the game when they can weasel themselves out of a vote...

Not to mention his last sentence makes it pretty damn clear (at least to me), what krelly is trying to do here....

uclabb,

Yes, I agree it's not an inherent good. But I would encourage people still to be on and discussing very actively near the deadlines if possible. (Which, ironically, it probably won't be possible for me on Monday as I'll be in a meeting).

Vote Count Bitch checking in!

Vote Count Update The 1st

Chaqa (3): Chaqa, WardenDresden, Maniac

Not voting (11): ghug, y2kjbk, krellin, semck83, Squigs44, captainmeme, guak, bo_sox48, uclabb, pjmansfield99, ILN

31 hours and 15 minutes remain.

@Krellin - As someone else (too lazy to go back and look) pointed out, all this means is we GUARANTEE that the first person to die is a townie - as opposed to having a chance it won't be. There is absolutely no logical reason to not try and gain the info from a lynch/mislynch. We only have one tool at our disposal (plus the cop scan) to track mafia, why on earth would you not want to use it?

Whilst no townie wants to die, they should all be willing to die if it advances the town perspective.

For that and to get ball rolling ##vote Krellin.

" the mafia is usually going to kill someone who is a threat to them, so we need to think carefully about who they kill and not dismiss such thought as WIFOM without even thinking about what that means. "

/DISAGREE/ The mafia MAY kill someone they think is a threat, but in so doing, they may also tip their hand...i.e. if you are a threat because you are on to who the mafia is, they may NOT kill you, because then the others will suspect that he was correct. By not killing him, it minimizes him....that is a possible mafia play...that is how it worked in nighttime discussion when I was scum.

So....WIFOM....I can make any argument for anything unless 100% of the facts are in front of me.

@maniac...I get a d_, huh? fuck you. You guys come out of the shoot making instant accusations, and then purporting all things to be true that are not. I'm dismissing all your early posts are arrogant nonsense and mocking them as they rightfully deserve.

Clearly this is an English class, as the grading is obfviously subjective. And, if you get on your knees, clearly teacher gives you an A. (might wanna wipe your mouth there...)

" The fact of the matter is that the majority of us are good, and it really is silly to get so convinced of someone's guilt until there is some kind of reasonably damning evidence. We really can't get that kind of evidence on Day 1. "

Amen to Y2K. I voice of reason.

@ILN: "Not to mention his last sentence makes it pretty damn clear (at least to me), what krelly is trying to do here.... " Do tell, big boy, what am I trying to do here?

Mock the idiocy? check. Dismiss early accusations as they complete and utter bullshit that they are? check. Knock the few know-it-alls off their pedestals becaus this insistence that they know how everyone will act is arrogant assclownery? check.

Tell me where I am wrong?

krellin- "So....WIFOM....I can make any argument for anything unless 100% of the facts are in front of me."

What a stupid thing to say, and I don't think you are that stupid. We are never going to be 100% sure about anything- we have to make educated judgments and one great source of evidence is the night kills as a priori it is very much in the interest of the mafia to kill those who are most threatening to them.

@Krellin - originally I had you marked as an F but your mum came over and changed my mind. Sound familiar?

My Mum is dead...

:(

uclabb.....DING DING DING. You seem to be catching on, my good boy. Anyone can make any argument in this game and you will NEVER know the truth until it is finally been revealed by a corpse. TWIFOM is a 100% valid issue/concern. When mr smarty-pants around here start telling you they KNOW how people will behave, and start coming up with long-winded deductions about why someone is guilty, accept it as the creative writing project it is, most of the time.

When I was mafia in game 2, I used to laugh my ass off watching the long-winded explanations of why some vanilla townie HAD to be guilty...


And...AGAIN...this notion that the mafia will and MUST always kill those they find threatening...it just doesn't hold water. It seems like that is what they should do...until you realize that by killing the person/people that are targetting them they eventually will reveal themselves....THEREFORE it is logical to conclude that the mafia will kill random people who are NOT threatening to them, in order to throw off the trial.

TWIFOM...

maniac....nawwww....my Mum's not dead...

I'm on my phone, so keeping it short, but I'll say this much. If we don't lynch today, we'll have nothing more to go on tomorrow. All we'll have is the result of the night, which isn't worth much at this stage. I say we need some information and seeing what happens on day one is the only way to get it. If we don't, we're already behind.

@Squigs: When you analyzed Chaqa you mentioned: 'There is no reason for a power role to do this, because it only draws attention to yourself and doesnt help the town in any way.' Just the fact that you showed interest in whether Chaqa is a power role or not is a possible scum tell. It obviously is nothing determining, but it is something I want to keep in mind.

@ILN: Care to elaborate on how it is clear to you what krellin is trying to do here? Also, why do you think Warden's vote is scummy?

@krellin: can you elaborate on how a town-led kill is worse than a no kill? I am inclined to think that more information helps the town. the discussions leading to the kill usually become crucial in determining who is a lizard later in the game when there are associations to be made after at least one reptile has flipped.

Quak: The game is survive longer than the lizard. killing a townie Day 1 takes you one step closer to losing. Not quite sure how this is hard to undrstand. Also, my experience is the information gained from Day1 kill is not going to be of any use. I guarantee -- MARK MY WORD -- that on Day 2 after you have lynched a townie, and then gotten 2 more kills from the lizards and the vig, you will all still be scratching your heads and wondering who the hell the lizards are....except for those of you arrogant and demented enough to think that you already know...and for you, there is little hope of using reason to make an argument. I just can't possibly imagine any mafia on day one sticking his neck out and making some guilty point so long as the town was already on the track to killing a vanilla...which, most likely we will. It's just math.

@uclabb: I think I understood it better from the poker post. What you are trying to say is that we should not be too adamant about thinking that the mafia will bluff because if we do then the mafia can afford not to bluff and double screw us because everyone will think it is a bluff. Still, what worries me is that if you are scum then you are trying to get the town to choose a direction so that you can know how to act during the night. I really hope you are not scum for our sake, but either way I think that you should not be pushing too much for consensus regarding the matter given that the best town weapon is unpredictability.

@krellin: I agree that it is more likely to kill a townie on day 1 than a mafia member given that the odds are against us, and I also agree that on Day 2 we will still be scratching our heads with almost nothing to go on. But after the first lizard flips there will be a lot of information to analyze. So, there will be a point in the game where the few of us that manage to survive will want to see voting patterns and accusations made during Day 1 that led to a mislynch.

Quite a lot to take in. I've some theories building, but nothing concrete yet.

@Chaqa: Care to share some of them?

I'll share them soon. I don't want my posting to affect their behavior quite yet.

My initial thoughts....

Squibs - manages to say a lot without saying anything really useful. He says he is trying to stimulate discussion which is admirable and indicative of being human, but trying to build a bigger haystack is indicative of being non-human. Reptiles trade in making life difficult for humans, drowning us in detail is their modes operandi. On the other hand I like how his responses seem to be quite quick judging by the time stamp on his posts. I imagine mafia will always draft out a response, re-read it and edit it prior to posting, squibs seems spontaneous. On the third hand my instincts as a poker player tell me there is something no quite right with Squibs. Many poker players look for tells which may apply to a lot of people. I look for changes in what a player usually does. A player sitting up when he normally relaxes is a tell, someone who always sits up isn't. I think squibs has changed massively from the last game ( where he was town) I hardly noticed him early on. I'm noticing him now.

Squibs Summary

Spontaneous and seeks to stimulate discussion - human traits
Change of style and haymaking - reptile and mutant traits.

Krellin - quite a few posts that are quite short, sometimes just one liners. This reminds me of the holding breadth tell in poker. Bluffers are so desperate not to give anything away they literally hold their breadth. I also dislike his ridiculing of people trying to analyse first day statements. Trying to close down discussion is non-human indicative. Krellin also appears to be less abrasive than he is in real life. As noted above changes in a persons character seem to raise alarms with me. On plus side krellin is contributing to discussions even if I don't fully agree with his thoughts on no lynch on day one and his thoughts on WIFOM.

Krellin summary

Short posts, ridiculing analysis, change of character - non-human traits
Trying to add to debate - human trait.

Uclabb - part of me thinks uclabb two points about WIFOM and late switching of votes could have been much better dealt with in the general discussion thread when we weren't playing. Is he haymaking here? He could, of course, be creating discussion and hoping to find scum slips. Jury is out. I have no idea how to read his agreeing with me about my poker analogy. I have so little experience in people agreeing with anything I say. I have gut feeling squibs and uclabb can't be on the same team, I'm not giving it any credence yet, but will keep it in mind. Does anyone else detect a frost between them?

Uclabb summary

Haymaker - non-human trait
Discussion enabler - human trait

Bo - I really wasn't looking forward to playing with Bo as he was terrible for town last game. In fairness he came in late. He seems to be taking an active role which is encouraging. He has already lied he said "Or maybe I didn't read the OP because ain't nobody got time for dat." After he had already complimented Vash on his OP. Too early to add much weight to this. I think he is trying to get reactions by calling people out.

Bo summary

Lied early - non-human trait, actually lying is a big trait of the government of the USA so maybe he is human?
Trying to get reactions - human trait.

Chaqa - I've seen this "I've got a 'full house' play" so many times it's old hat. For those new to poker it goes like this. Board has a potential full house and flush. Player A bets, player B thinks. Player A says I have full house. Player B calls. Player A shows full house and is super smug for being able to make a fool out of player B.
On the other hand seems unconcerned about others voting for him.

Chaqa summary

I'm scum, I'm scum, turns out to be scum, you're all idiots, haha. - non - human trait.
Unconcerned at voting - human trait.

Too little info to comment much on others, IRN seems to talk in morse code, but that could be me. Guak appears govt official type and warden needs watching and I want to hear more from Y2, PJ and Ghug.

@Maniac ... the OP, where Vashta talked about the SK, is the first post of the thread. The part where he makes the joke on krellin is the tenth post of the thread, where he writes the narrative for the beginnings of the game. Whatever your claim is supposed to mean, it's complete, and I mean absolutely complete, bullshit.

Ask yourself - who isn't reading, you or me?

maniac - First off, <sigh....> Give me a break.
My "change of character"? First, you didn't see me in previous Mafia games, apparently, where I insisted this game is not the forums. Duhhhh. So, Second, This game is not the forums, duhhh...so yes, my character will change. If you are here to have forum debates and judge people based upon your perception of their behavior and how they are "supposed" to act, you have already lost the game.

As for ridiculing anaylsis. Abso-fucking-lutely I am ridiculing analysis, because I am reading your jack-ass analysis of me and all my "non-human" traits and I find you ridiculous...as I have found MOST of the analysis in the opening HOURS of the game, when people can not possibly have any real information from which to make a judgement.

I have no problem with analysis, but, for example, labeling Chaqa as suspicious for an opening joke makes people morons, period. So yes, I ridicule your analysis, because it suggests an unhealthy arrogance in your powers of perceptions.

FOR ME -- anyone that is stating anything with certainty at this point **IS** suspicious, because the only people that know for certain who the scum is **IS THE SCUM**