@ Bo Sox - if you want to link me into the observer's thread - that'd be great, I'll post there as well

JOKE - before anyone thinks I'm serious

##Vote Guak

let's play Where's Warden. where you at buddy?? guak's insistence that he is the last govt official only confirms in my mind warden=mutant and guak=lizard, if guak was the mutant he would have just come out with it. Honestly if I were lizard (or mutant) I would have claimed mutant right when the day started when I was determining what happened the night before and how town wins, realizing the lizard needs to be lynched for the remaining three to have a chance at winning. I applaud guak's valiant attempt at trying to prove he is govt though. the creative writing flows from you like a buffalo.

I'm going with Warden as mutant, but Y2K my friend, your not off the hook yet... I'm torn between you and Guak for today's vote and it could just as easily be you.

##vote Y2K

That's fair, you can't know for sure which of me or guak is lizard. Guak took the approach of going back and rereading everything in an attempt to spin the history to show himself to be town. I wanted you to ask me direct questions so I could prove the truth to you that I am in fact the govt official. I gave you the straightforward case for why I'm town, which wasn't all that detailed, and I could go into more detail about how I could have my theory for what happened last night while still be town, but I would need your explicit approval. We would be in a better place to face off with the mutant tonight if I didn't have to explain my thoughts about last night further. The town's fate is in your hands, pj.

Don't bloody remind me.

I've also been back and re-read the whole thread. Frankly a couple of things stood out to me. One of the big things is actually what Guak uses to paint you as mafia, he said that Uclabb and Bo Sox voted for you on D1 to distance from other people only when there was no chance you could get lynched. I disagree, it ended up being 4 on you to 5 on Squigs. It is possible it was a risk, but it was a big risk to take on the first day, anyone couldve switched over to you on last minute.

What was interesting about Guak was he was the "safe vote" on ILN that day.

I don't envy you, I'd be ripping my hair out in your position :/. If you take a step back, all I can hope is that you realize that me being lizard is a bit more farfetch'd than guak being lizard, and for good reason.

Ok - you've given me a slight defence for yourself. Give me some case on Guak, doesn't have to be an extended piece of creative writing.

2-3 that to you suggest scum slip

ok i'll try to find some points at lunch in an hour

I think it would behoove Warden to come out as mutant now and help ID the lizard, he has just as much an incentive to make sure the lizard gets lynched right now. I'd be fine I guess if we lynched guak and Warden got modkilled for not voting and town wins right there, but ending the game on a modkill is weak.

##vote Guak

@pj: With both uclabb and bosox on y2k I do not think it was such a big risk. First, either of them could had switched back (though I doubt it as it would draw attention to them). Second, almost all of the remaining votes were people offline at the moment, like myself, you and others. Third, even if y2k was lynched that would had automatically cleared both uclabb and bosox so it would had been a great lizard play for both of them. Fourth, bosox waited until almost the last minute to switch to make it 5-4. on hindsight, it was not a risky play at all. The fact that y2k was so cool throughout makes it clear that he is not town. Also, look at how y2k again just waves off a huge case against him that points out very specific scum slips (wanting the vig to reveal, hedging reads throughout, no original accusations made in the whole game, general laziness) as just 'creative writing' without actually addressing any of them. This is exactly what he has done throughout the whole game. First with Squig's case, then with Maniac's and now with mine. I need not remind you that this was krellin's strategy on M2, and this game is very similar to that one as we clearly have a mutant following damian's strategy and a mafia following krellin's.

@WD: How about chipping in with your opinion. It seems to me that as mutant you also benefit from finding out the last lizard.
@pj: Also worth noting, y2k has already denied being the mutant. Keep that in mind when he fakeclaims mutant when he is about to die. As it stands from your math perspective, WD and myself have a 50%-50% chance of being the mutant, unless one of us claims.
@everyone: when someone claims, be sure to post all the nightkills and reasons for each.

not a chance in hell I'll be fakeclaiming mutant, I'll be realclaiming govt until the end. I'm putting together my read of guak right now, and am definitely finding scummy behavior without needing to try that hard, but for now I'll answer one question: why did I advocate for vig to reveal when bo_sox was on the chopping block? My reasoning at the time was that bo_sox was claiming a kill role, and in my mind, that meant vig or SK. I didn't even consider he was lizard until he flipped it. I guess claiming being a kill role made it in my mind that he was SK and wanted people to think he was vig, but the vig coming out could assuage us that we weren't about to lynch the vig. On top of that, the vig revealing at the time with both doc and cop alive would have very likely prevented the vig's death, as it's likely PJ would have visited ghug and the town would have already won this. It made great sense to me at the time that if the vig revealed right there, he could be saved that night and the town would be way better off than the result we got. I still stand by my reasoning that ghug could have lived longer if he claimed then.

Time to finish my guak analysis. ETA <1 hour hopefully.

Ok, so guak:

Pages 6/7: bo_sox/uclabb/guak squabble a whole bunch along with krellin about what defines scummy behavior. guak even goes out on a limb to say bo_sox seems scummy and he will "take note for future reference". Which he absolutely never does. Guak even uses this arguing as a cover for why he suspected them as scum. Terrible move.
Page 10: uclabb makes a very odd comment here: "@guak- y2k has been one of the most active and helpful posters so far? I don't think so." I can't find anywhere where guak says that. Guak is actually pretty lurky for the latter part of Day 1. He does well to let bo_sox and uclabb lead the charge against squiggs and eventually me. This comment rocked me for a while, completely unclear what he was referencing, and I regret not bringing it up and challenging uclabb on what he meant.
Page 22/23: We skip ahead with guak directly contributing nothing much at all until the beginning of Day 2 when uclabb the first reptile turns up dead. bo_sox very quickly comes out with a clear of guak. And what is guak's response? He lists bo_sox as slight scum with no further read. Talk about a hedged read! What happened to revisiting bo_sox and evaluating him? When people seem confident I'm town with what seems like little reason, I get super suspicious. Guak all but ignores bo_sox here though.
Page 27: guak is pretty damn quiet until bo_sox gets onto the chopping block, then he speaks up trying to defend him and get analysis elsewhere. Guak still has yet to revisit any analysis he promised on bo_sox, but comes to defend him from the onslaught of suspicion.
Page 30: Finally, once it's really looking like bo_sox will be lynched, guak admits he may be scum without any real detail.
Page 34: ghug starts to voice his distrust of guak due to being the top town read of bo_sox and uclabb.
Page 35: ILN comes out screaming at guak for being scum.
Page 36: ghug further elaborates on why guak is scum right before night ends and he turns up dead. But now....

Page 37, the defense! Here's the clutch part. Time to analyze guak's defense of ghug's accusations a bit more carefully:
1. bo_sox claiming guak is strong town is just "buddying up". So where was the huge suspicion of him beforehand? As town, I mistrust people that hard-read me town more than those that hard-read me scum, especially towards the beginning. Your reaction to bo_sox buddying up with you at the time when he did buddy up to you is deafeningly silent.
2. Fact manipulation by ghug. You say you were middle of the pack on post count. You were. But in terms of actual scum accusations and partaking in the Day 1 and Day 2 votes? Almost nonexistent. Chaqa and Maniac and a couple others had you null for a while, with others like me bought your posts and read you as town. Your scum reads only started once bo_sox flipped, and for good reason. No more fellow mafia to subtlely keep you in the town column, and a failed attempt at late-bussing bo_sox with a weakly offered thought that he may be scum.

Conclusion: guak was the quiet mafia sitting back Day 1, had to start speaking up Day 2 when uclabb was murdered, but couldn't save bo_sox and now his creative writing is the only protection he has left.

Day 4 Vote Update 1

guak(2): pj, y2k
Warden (1): guak
No vote (1): Warden

Currently GUAK is set to be lynched!
4 hours 37 minutes remain

Well, fml. Everyone seems certain that I'm mutant now, but I'll have the next night and day to deal with that. At this point I'm pretty sure that guak is the real mutant trying to get a fakeclaim from the lizard that he can disprove due to the kill record/reasons for the kills, and y2k then has to be the last lizard. (I've been really busy the last couple days with family stuff that's finally gotten resolved, so you can be assured that I'll highly active for the last couple of phases.)

I was feeling a bit on-the-fence regarding which of y2k and guak was mutant, because I didn't think the lizards would really use a strategy with that much busing in it. I suppose, given the fact that semck and krellin were already gone for the day, ghug wasn't moving, I was on the fence about switching votes, but had very little read on y2k, and that two scum could've left the y2k vote if needed makes supposing his innocence based on that last-minute pressure a considerable leap of faith. y2k seems to know who was RB'd last night: guak, but neither has claimed, and I was also not RB'd. Naturally, the mutant wouldn't claim a RB if it occurred, as it does nothing to help him seem more innocent.

Guak's case of me as mutant SEEMS strong, but it's full of holes. Guak, why did you try to portray me as someone who wanted to keep the (fakeclaiming) mutant alive? That's the most easily refuted point I've ever seen you make. I'm the one who raised suspicion on the people who did want to keep bo_sox alive (PJ and Maniac) based on that premise, but I never moved my vote off of bo_sox during the mutant-claiming process because I thought it would be a huge boon to get rid of the mutant then. And combined with you "@everyone: when someone claims, be sure to post all the nightkills and reasons for each." It tells me that you're just waiting to disprove a fake claim with your own, true claim of the kills, which means you HAVE to be the mutant, and then by process of elimination as well as both your own case and his other suspicious actions, y2k HAS to be the the lizard. ##VOTE y2k

@y2k: such a poor case that it is extremely easy to counter.

1st point. You say I never push bo's scummy behavior, but I actually place him in my slight scum reads on night 1 and have him as my number two scum read on Day 2. So, where exactly am I not following through on my suspicion? I also elaborate when I place him on my scum list on day 2 that he had made other scummy things and point them out. Also, you are purposefully ignoring the fact that pointing out this particular piece of behavior is what eventually led to the death of bosox. A mafia buddy would not had placed his pal in the spotlight like that so early on the game.

2nd point: that comment was directed at an earlier post where Isaid all of uclabb's top scum reads were active and I did not agree with lynching them on Day 1. uclabb's scum reads then where krellin Squigs and bosox. You were also on thel ist, but I was referring to the other three when I made my post. Uclabb just tried to defer attention by focusing on y2k. Given all the bussing that has been going on in this game, this post was clearly part of the bussing strategy. Also, regarding the 'lurkiness' I already stated my personal reason for being MIA and I think it is pretty solid. I can send you the pictures of my US embassy appointment if you really need further proof.

3rd point: you say I give little reason for placing bosox as scum? The reason is precisely what you are saying I chose to ignore. I also explain in my post of why I am not a lizard that I did not elaborate further because the main reason I read bosox as scum was that he strongly town read me. The fact that I mentioned this BEFORE you made your case only strengthens the fact that my claim is true and not just a lame defense against your point. You are basically saying that I am a scum for doing what you are saying town should do.

Point 4: Again, I have already explained this point. I did not defend bo. I said he was one of my top candidates for a lynch, but that I wanted to discuss others too as there was still one more lizard to be found. At this point discussion was completely stagnant and no one was analyzing anyone else. I am certain that town always wants to generate new information, so this is actually a very townie thing to do. Also, you have obviously failed to consider that if I were to be the mutant then I would not need to elaborate further on my case because I could just kill my scum read at night if I wanted to, or that if I am a townie with time concerns I would not had had the time to build a solid case on bosox. I stated my reason for my lack of activity during Day 1 and Day 2, and have been very active since. You, on the other hand promised more townie behavior after Day 1 and never brought it on. You have failed to generate content and the only cases you have built have basically been rehashes of other people's cases. You have clearly not cared enough about trying to find out who the last scum is, while I have.

Point 5:
You say I do not go into detail as to why bo is scum, but I had mentioned several times before that a) ghug's and WD's case was really tight. b) that the fact that bo was not defending himself or trying to build accusations of others was the scummiest behavior up until then and c) that I had previously read him as scum for reasons already stated.

Point 6: already addressed this. Being the top town read is actually something in my favor and not against me.

Point 7: So what? ILN did not support his accusations with anything. If I reacted incorrectly then show the post where my reaction was scummy.

Point 8: My defense against ghug

1) Who says that a lizard needs to buddy up to someone who was suspecting him beforehand? You are saying that as town you mistrust those who give you a hard town read, which is exactly what I did and explained in my post about why I am not a lizard. Yet you use this as evidence that I am scum? So basically you are saying that what you would do if you were town means that I am scum when I do it... Blatant manipulation of the facts.
2) You are not addressing the points I mention as ghug fact manipulation. You are taking a different direction here by saying that I had not made any cases or accusations. This is also a lie as I had made many accusations regarding scummmy behavior and had already pointed out bo's first scum slip, an early Squigs slip, built a case against ILN and repeatedly challenged uclabb on several posts. For the small amount of posts you cannot possibly argue that I was not attempting to find scum. Specially when you had the same amount of posts and had yet to make a single accusation or post a single slip.

Conclusion: y2k´s case is so full of bs that he accuses me of being scum for doing what he would do if he were town and for acting the same way he did on Day 1, but in a more townie way. @y2k: you, my friend, are quite a terrible liar. that was quite a poor case. Also, mind explaining why you wanted the vigilante to reveal himself when bo claimed? Or why you have failed to scum hunt even after bo died? Or why you were so interested in weeding out the mutant instead of finding the last lizard?

Warden, if you are the mutant, your play here is handing victory to the lizard. You're seriously going to claim govt and doom the game for yourself and the govt?

Guak, I thought you were town all game until this day started. You did insanely well to hide from suspicion. Only because of the limited amount of people left do I know you're scum and can see the evidence in the past votes, but clearly we're just going to go back and forth with WIFOM case logic that doesn't actually prove anything. At this point, it's mainly on PJ. I'm very disappointed in Warden for throwing away his mutant chances at winning this.

"...but I'll have the next night and day to deal with that."

Warden, that's the most misguided thing you've said all game, even as the mutant.

@y2k: and what exactly has cleared WD as lizard in your book that makes me so guilty? If you are saying I am guilty simply based on numbers, then you should take a long look at WD. I for one thought at first that WD was the last lizard, but after rereading realized that the one with the most scum slips and signs was you. You came out the door since the night deaths occurred accusing me wrongly without even considering the fact that WD may be lizard.

No, it's hardly misguided since the fact of the matter is that when we kill the lizard today, even if PJ can outguess the kill in the night, he'll still have to make the correct decision between me and ghug. If I'm so irrevocably mutant though, why even insist on a claim, or as ghug insisted, explaining the kills and logic behind them. I know I can only make guesses for which kills were which, let alone create logic for them, and only the lizard has motivation to fake-claim the mutant at this point in time. I'm doing the only thing I can do as government official, trying to get the last lizard today so we at least have a CHANCE at victory.

The real mutant (guak) doesn't want to be the first to claim because then it lowers his chances of winning, because it makes PJ's night choice of save 50-50 rather than 1 in 3 while he still tries to figure out the mutant's identity. That's why he kept pushing on you, y2k, to make an "official" mutant claim. And also why I think you backed off on trying to seem like the mutant once you realized that was the angle he was going for. Having to claim today hurts the mutant's chance at victory, but it also guarantee's him a roughly 50-50 shot. But if he counterclaims a lizard fakeclaim of mutant, then that takes away the uncertainty of the lizard's possible survival and kingmaker/tie/loss situation the next day. Guak's pushed for a mutant claim from you, and now you're pushing for a claim from me, well, it's not going to work, because as a human, it doesn't actually help my side to lie about being the mutant.

@guak Now you're pushing y2k to try and find me lizardy when your own conclusion doesn't support that. I wondered, after reading your cases against me and y2k, why you yourself seemed so sure that I had to be mutant, and the only really strong point is that you claim to be innocent and that y2k is the lizard, and through PoE, I have to be the mutant. But your actual evidence is fact-manipulation and blatant untruths. Your behavior in the early stages of the game was mostly non-indicative, and you seemed rather inconspicuous to everyone but me. Despite my suspicion, I couldn't find anything to substantiate it at the time, and you seem to be in the same boat with me now. But when I didn't have evidence I didn't try to make things up or mislead others into voting for you because I only had a gut feeling of your guilt. You seem intent on damning me as mutant because we've finally gotten the last lizard in view and you want to get the best chances possible for your potential win overnight.

@WD: everything you are saying about me I can say right back about you. I do not think there is a point in continuing this argument until nightfall given that we are both aware that y2k is the las lizard. Also, you are misinterpreting my comment to y2k. I am saying that y2k's case for me being lizard is completely false because he says that I just HAVE to be the lizard because of the numbers in the game and that he read me as town before. What I am trying to say is that if y2k was truly not the lizard he would had suspected you too of being the lizard.

i already explained why i think guak is the lizard and not warden. the scum-reads on guak indicate alliance with scum, and warden is just mildly sketchy at times. From my perspective, knowing I'm govt and safely assuming PJ is the doctor, I know it's warden=mutant guak = lizard OR warden=lizard guak=mutant, and the former just seems way more likely.

but if i'm wrong, and you are the mutant guak, then you've gotta say so. same with warden, come forward as mutant, which I think you are. The mutant will lose along with the town otherwise. I don't need to humor you guys while you pretend to be govt anymore. Come out mutant, otherwise lizard wins. Simple as that.

Also, the Warden push on bo_sox, that's the big clincher for my conclusion of who has what role.