Y2k case:
On p1 y2k says this:
'What Squigs is getting at is that true government officials/townies should explain all their thinking and avoid being cryptic with their contributions to the game. If someone is a true government official, they should be trying as hard as possible to explain all of their thinking as much as possible. It makes it even more helpful if when you've been lynched, we know you're good, and can read your posts knowing you are scum-free.'
He never does this himself, so I guess that eans he is not a true government official, by his own words.
p5: y2k posts about entertaining a no vote. buddies up to krellin.
p6: bosox posts reads. Does not post read on y2k.
p8: y2k reads:
bosox: null to town, he seems to be putting in a lot of effort in his reads this game. He's putting on a very nice act if he is in fact scum.
uclabb: null to town, same as bosox. Definitely putting the effort in.
He hedges on the reads for both, and manages to talk good about each. I really think that saying uclabb had been 'putting the effort in' at this point is quite a stretch of the truth as uclabb had only talked about WIFOM and about krellin's contradictions, which we all know happen often in any game and are not usually alignment indicative.
p9: y2k discredits Maniac after Maniac posted an accusation against bosox.
p9: uclabb posts his reads
bosox- Going the other direction, I do think that squigs was right in identifying the single scummiest non-krellin thing that has happened thus far, which was bosox's post that essentially said "P.S. Can everyone please coach me on how to seem town?" Hate that/would vote if the BW were between him and someone not squigs or krellin.
y2k- He seems scummy, but I think only in relation to krellin. I'm remembering y2k being one of the main champions of a first day lynch in M2 (maybe that's wrong, he can correct if so), so it is very strange to me that he is switching his tune this time. It's one of those cases where sticking one's neck out, even when wrong, probably leans town, though. Basically at this point it's hard to find even a 4th scummy person because nobody is posting anything.
uclabb says that y2k is scummy in the same post he places bosox in his scum list. What is most interesting here is that he actually says that it is a case when doing something scummy leans town, which makes zero sense. Clearly this is uclabb distancing himself from his mafia buddies.
p11: fluff conversation about lurking between bosox and y2k
p14: y2k gives strength to the Squigs bandwagon by saying
'I'm somewhat convinced, ##VOTE Squiggs. Defensiveness is the biggest red flag for me there. I'll certainly feel much better about semck if squiggs did flip mafia.'
p15: y2k says he is willing to vote for someone he does not think is lizard
'I still don't think krellin is mafia, but I'm willing to switch off squiggs to krellin if that avoids a tie. ##VOTE krellin'
Moves back to Squigs after krellin claims.
p15: Squigs builds a solid last minute case against y2k. You might want to check it out if you thin mine may be tainted.
p15: uclabb votes y2k. At this point there was much less than a half hour left and Squigs had 6 votes on him. Y2k only had Squigs voting for him. I think this vote was one of the main reasons why y2k has been overlooked, but coming from uclabb I think it is clear that it is a distancing strategy. There was little risk of a y2k bandwagon picking up enough steam. Chaqa and I were stuck on ILN and Maniac on Chaqa. uclabb did not want to be accuses for staying on krellin and knew that his vote was not needed on Squigs to secure a lynch.
p16: y2k's defense
'I'm town, but I accept the suspicion thrown on me. I haven't been too vocal for Day 1.'
If he had been town and fearing a late bandwagon on him he would had been worried and would had tried to address Squigs case on him. Yet he was not... why? because he knew that his mafia buddy would change his vote arguing that he wanted to avoid risking a tie or something if the vote got close.
p16: bosox switches in the last minute to y2k when it was clear that Squigs was dead to make it 5 - 4. This helped distance y2k from bo too and the timing ensured that there was zero chance of y2k dying. Clearly, bo understoood what uclabb did and replicated his strategy.
p18: uclabb night scum list goes krellin, y2k and bosox. Even after krellin claim. uclabb does this because he does not want to bump up either y2k or bosox to first and not enough had changed for him to move up from one of his lower ranks someone to first.
p19: bosox scum list replicates uclabb's. It goes Chaqa, krellin, uclabb, y2k and WD. bo was clearly doing everything uclabb did. That is why he lost it on day 2 and when down so fast. Without uclabb to follow he started making several mistakes.
p19: I challenged y2k to respond why if he knew he was doing the scummy things Squigs pointed out he failed to correct his behavior earlier. This is the answer I got:
'I'll respond to Guak and his question why I offered to correct my scummy behavior only when I started getting votes. The only scummy behavior I believe I am guilty of so far is lurking. Other claims of scummy behavior exhibited from me are stretches and misguided reads. But then again, aren't the vast majority of scum reads from town on day 1 usually against other townies? The numbers say it's likely. Factor in the mafia influencing other townies? This is exactly how i started considering a no-lynch Day 1. We were all grasping at straws. Now that we have a full day behind us, there are past actions to base our accusations on requiring explanations for behavior from individuals. I wouldn't have voted no-lynch yesterday if I didn't feel so pressured to vote by everyone. People want others to vote to give concrete information on their suspicions and I get that, but I'm having the same thought process as Krellin. It's reinforcing my belief that he's town as well because I understand his perspective, and I'm having trouble rationalizing his actions as mafia. So yes I do believe his claim.
Anyway, the lurking was me just being averse to all the baseless accusations coming from everyone, including myself I felt. I'm certainly not certain about my scum read on semck, or anyone yet, I have to go back and read Day 1 closer and be prepared to cross-analyze that with the night results tonight in the event I live and need to actively find scum.'
y2k fails to address all other Squigs points and just waves them off as stretches and misreads. Only focuses on the lurking part. This is a very lizardy thing to do. He also keeps hedging his reads and buddies up to krellin. I think this is particularly significant because in M2 when krellin was mafia he buddied up to y2k. y2k was likely trying to take advantage of krellin's favorable opinion of him from M2.
p22: WD's analysis of uclabb death yields this result
'If I had to link anyone to uclabb based on the past 72 hours, I'd say it's one of PJ, Maniac, or ILN. If he started with a bus/distancing strategy, then I'd have to say krellin or y2k. '
I think it is clear that if uclabb attempted a bus strategy y2k is his buddy.
p22: bo posts reads post-uclabb death
'Y2K: While he was the hot topic in the last 30 minutes of day one, he's been almost completely absent since. He put forward a reasonable defense during the night but didn't post much else. I'm also worried because, after Squigs made the case near the end of day one, uclabb immediately switched his vote over to Y2K, more evidence that he was trying to disassociate himself with a town lynch. This isn't a clear connection but it's possible, and given Y2K's lurking so far, I'm leaning slight scum, but only slight..'
Sensing a pattern here. bo actually praises y2k for his lame defense during the night in which he failed to address all of the points Squigs brought up against him.
p22: y2k starts Maniac bandwagon because he listed uclabb as probably town. Pretty lame case.
p24: after ghug makes case on bosox y2k says
'Maniac remains my strongest scum read. I'll have to look over bosox more carefully tonight.'
bosox immediately says this to maniac
' "Mmmm I clear both Y2 and Krellin and they come right out and make me their #1 scum."
That's an odd line. You really think that reading someone town is going to make them like you and keep you around longer?'
Looks like y2k and bosox were trying hard to make Maniac a viable Day 2 target.
p25: y2k says this:
'To back up ILN's claim to be town, uclabb did have him listed along with me and Chaqa as his top scum reads. Sure you can go WIFOM on that and claim it's very possible that uclabb listed a fellow mafia member as a top scum read, but given how badly Day 1 went for town, that seems like an unnecessary move for uclabb to make now. I'm convinced ILN is town for the time being.'
He is indirectly clearing himself and bo without actually saying so while buddying up to ILN. Brilliant post indeed.
p25: pj you say to krellin that you think uclabb was bussing him on Day 1 because you think he was that good a player. You were right, he is that good. But he bussed y2k not krellin.
p27: maniac accuses y2k of top scum.
p28: y2k answers this
'@Maniac: very interesting theory, albeit misguided, on how uclabb could have taken the risk of looking like he wanted to have me lynched last minute, calculating it wouldn't work because I'm a fellow scum and not enough people were online for the deadline. '
y2k again simply waves off accusations against him and does not actually address the points against him.
p29: y2k votes bosox. He did this at a time when the wagon on bo had already formed and had no intention of going away. Given all the bussing that went on between uclabb and bo, I do not find this at all surprising. y2k knew bo's chances of surviving were slim and did not mind bussing him if needed.
p29: y2k says
'Me fighting to survive in the last 30 minutes of Day 1 is what didn't seem all that necessary. From my perspective we had a better shot of lynching mafia by lynching Squigs instead of me since I know I'm town, but without much more to say, I felt it unnecessary and was even unclear how to defend myself in that moment. With less than 10 people alive now, each townie is much more important to survive and fight in order to ensure a town victory, so I'll be fighting much more going forward than I did on Day 1.'
A townie would never find it unnecessary to defend himself before dying (see Squigs and Maniac). A lizard will (see bosox). Also, he says he was unclear on how to defend himself. A townie is never unclear on how to defend himself. I should rest my case right now, but I just know I will find even more evidence in the next pages.
p30: y2k moves to ILN trying to get a new wagon going.
p30: y2k moves back to bosox immediately after fake claim. I find this quite interesting. There were three people that knew for sure that bo was fakeclaiming. The last lizard, ghug the vig, and the mutant. This certainty that y2k had that it was a fakeclaim proves that he is mutant or the last lizard. ghug had the same certainty and that likely got him killed during the night. If y2k were mutant he would jump at the chance to keep a fake SK around for a while (like WD did). So, that makes him the last lizard. Given all the bussing that has been going on I think it is safe to say that y2k bussed him. bo's claim was a crappy one. He did not actually claim a role and claimed a kill that he had no way of knowing who had made. y2k would had recognized that bo's claim was likely to fail and grasped the opportunity to distance himself further from uc and bo. I think this was another great play. kudos to you y2k, clearly the lizard mvp.
p31: bo posts this beauty
'It's funny how the fake role claim is so believable to you, y2k, but when an actual kill role comes out and offers to help the town out in order to last a little bit longer, you jump him.
There's two mafia members voting for me, and now that they've got a chance to remove a power role without wasting their night kill, they're trying to take advantage. See through it.'
So, bo is surprised y2k is still bussing him and is calling him out for it.
p32: bo says
' "die mutant"
Thank you y2k. I can't beat that case.'
bo is clearly still mad at being bussed by his teammate. I do not see him addressing comments at others like he has to y2k.
p32: y2k asks the vigilante to reveal himself!!!! MAJOR SCUM
'Honestly, the vigilante could even reveal now to assuage us that bo_sox is not the vigilante, and we'd be fine. doctor visits vig, and let mafia waste a roleblock on the vig while the cop scans away.'
I cannot believe I missed this post earlier. HUGE alien alert.
p33: y2k raises suspicion against Maniac again after bo dies.
p34: y2k is the first to say it is time to hunt for the mutant. Funny that he does not mention that there is also a need to find the last lizard.
He pushes again in another post and says:
'Can we discuss what kind of past behavior would indicate a mutant mentality? I'm not sure what to look for when looking over the last 2 days.'
and further ahead
'Not the Mutant, he didn't know anyone. How does the SK act?'
Clearly at this point y2k is only interested in finding the mutant and has no interest in finding the last lizard.
p36: y2k is at Maniac's throat saying that vanilla town does not fakeclaim cop.
p37: y2k keeps pushing maniac.
p40: Maniac read of y2k sums up pretty well why y2k is the last lizard.
p41: y2k decides to shut up for the night. This goes against his very first post when he said that townies should always be clear with their opinions. Also, this lack of reads shows he is trying to stay clear off the mutant's radar. A very scummy thing to do. He does not even post his reads before night is over. This shows that y2k either knew he was not going to die, or knew that if he died he had already lost and there was no point in leaving behind his reads to be properly analyzed by those left. A townie would had left his reads in case others were interested in finding out what they were. Fact is, y2k never has been open about his opinions and has always played follow the leader. Only *original* read was on Maniac and many people had Maniac among the top suspects at the time he first raised suspicion against him.
In summary,
Lots of bussing from y2k bo and uclabb. There is definitely a pattern. y2k has not actively hunted for scum and had not made any original cases. Closest thing to an accusation was his case against Maniac but that was mostly OMGUS. y2k has shown extremely scummy behavior in his proposal that the vig reveal himself, trying to find the mutant before the last lizard and for never hesitating to believe bosox. A true townie shows doubt when faced with such a claim unless he has inside info like ghug had. y2k never bothered to defend himself and usually just waved accusations of him. Everyone thinks he is town because he was bussed by uclabb and bosox and he himself bussed bosox, but other than that his behavior has been incredibly scummy throughout. I really do not undertand how I missed so many signs before.
Furthermore, y2k knows who was roleblocked, which explains his behavior early today. If it was pj, then y2k *knows* the mutant targetted ILN too, which is why he started the morning accusing me of being lizard and has never even considered WD is the last lizard (ILN has been my top scum read for quite a while and it is clear that at this point in the game the mutant would had been hunting for lizards). The truth is that y2k thinks I am the mutant and needs me dead thinking that he automatically wins then. If WD was RBd then that explains nicely why there was only one death. I know I was not RBd, but I see both scenarios as supporting my reads of y2k as lizard and WD as mutant. If ILN was the one who was RBd then I guess pj and I are extremely lucky to be alive.
##VOTE y2k. Upon reread it is entirely clear to me that y2k is the last lizard. @WD: if you are the last lizard then congratulations, you have played a perfect game of mafia. If you are the mutant like I will state next, then I wish you the worst of luck during the night.