@Pj - re: how plans should be judged. sorry to use yet more poker analogies but I often see a player get all his money in pre-flop with AA and some guy calls with K9s. The K9 hits two pair and the AA goes out the tourny. He did everything right and got unlucky.

I think we got unlucky. Assuming Ghug shot at you the other two kill roles picked out separate targets and the Doc didn't save either of them. We've been unlucky. if either vig or cop had of survived we would be in much better position, either Cop would have a scan or vig would have a story to tell about how he didn't hit.

@PJ - 'no point RB krellin as he was about to die' care to explain how you know that?

@ Maniac - sorry is that meant to be a trick question? The mafia know who they're going to kill and who they're going to rb... What's the point in wasting a rb on the cop if your going to kill him before he gets his read out. Alternatively the Vig still gets his shot off even if the lizard eats him.

Perhaps if you hadn't been screwing around so much the doctor might have put a save in and the town could've focused on real scum hunting instead of arguing over your fake role claim.

As per the poker analogy. Yep - the guy with the pocket rockets did everything right and still lost. You did everything wrong with a losing hand

@PJ - how do you know reptiles killed Krellin?

GM NOTE: If the mutant was protected by the doctor it would register as a succesful "save".

Lol I know Ghug advised the doctor to do 'what the fuck he wants' but I don't think he meant - 'save the Mutant.'

Were you doc saved last night maniac? Or perhaps the night before?

I've no idea who killed Krellin - I'm making guesses (as we all are) but if your a lizard - in that situation I'd've thought its a pretty clear choice.

You have cop and Vig - you have a kill and a RB. Surely you go for the greater threat to kill and RB Vig knowing that if he had survived he had no extra info to share with the town whereas the cop could've cleared people.

My suspicions are - Mafia killed Krellin, RB Ghug and the mutant killed Ghug. Of course I may be wrong, no-one really knows but I think that's the likeliest scenario

@all - it appears main case against me is based on my suspect defence on Bo Sox. My major reasoning there was actually that I just didn't trust Krellin. (Sorry ghost of Krellin). His game was totally erratic, which makes more sense in hindsight but I felt it was identical to how he'd played as Mafia and he was essentially trying to game the system.

With that in mind I felt he was pushing a hard case on Bo sox which instinctively made me want to fight it and defend Bo Sox. No other real reason.

I hate to bring this up as it is outside influence affecting the game, but Vash's point kinda tells the Doc that he saved the Mutant doesn't it?

PJ - you are trying to dig yourself out of a very deep hole. Your wording suggests you knew reptiles killed Krellin and RB Ghug. It could be that Reptiles RB and killed Ghug and either Ghug or SK killed Krellin. Your posts stick of actual knowledge.

I can't say if doc tried to save me.
I can't say if he tried to save me and got RB and I can't say if someone tried to roleblock me (even though I don't have a power role).

If the consensus of my fellow players need me to divulge, i will, but forgive me if I don't respond to you.

Interestingly above Maniac - your right, you can't tell if he tried to save you and got RB, that's impossible for you to know, so why on earth would you even offer that as an option.

Honestly - I don't see you as lizard, I see you having made an incredibly misguided play from the start of the game which you've continued to harp on about to the detriment of the town. You may well be the mutant - who knows. Frankly, I'm bored of the round robin conversation now. I made it very clear that my thoughts were MY thoughts and that yes it was impossible for me to prove. Why on earth you think that the remaining lizard would spend this much time discussing night kills etc is beyond me.

@Maniac: Funny that you say that mafia do not slip on their first post when both uclabb and bosox made some of the biggest scumslips in the first few pages.

@pj: why would you say the mafia killed krellin and the mutant killed ghug? It could be the other way around.

Huge slip in this post: 'I think it very likely that Ghug was RB. There were enough accusations that he was the vig floating around and there was no point in rb'ing Krellin when he was about to die. But let's see if anyone else claims it as you suggest.'

You are discounting the possibility that the mutant shot krellin and the lizards shot ghug. This tells me you have inside info and are one of the two remaining kill roles. I really think Maniac is the other one so I will vote for either you unless convinced otherwise.

@Maniac: you are incorrectly analyzing Vashta's intervention. I had called the GM on a previous post to ask what would happen if the doc saved the mutant and the mutant was targeted in the same turn because if pj was successfully visited by the doc I wanted to know if that cleared him as mutant or not. It is a moot point now because pj said he was nto doc visited. That leaves only two clear possibilities: either pj is mutant or ghug was roleblocked. Given that ghug announced that his top target was pj and that bosox's ghost said that the lizards thought the vig was either ghug or semck, then I am inclined to believe that eveb in the event that pj is not mutant (which I am inclined to believe is far more likely than lizard) then he has to be the last lizard. Else, why would mafia roleblock ghug?

I think pj is as close to a certain scum kill as we can possibly get today so ##VOTE pj.

I am willing to return to Maniac since I believe he is the most likely to be lizard and 2nd most likely to be mutant, but I think our odds are stronger with pj due to the significance of ghug's attempt to kill him.

@WD and @y2k: how about chipping in with your opinions? I am having a hard time trusting anything maniac and pj say and perhaps I am getting a severe case of tunnel vision here. I believe you are both non-lizard as far as I can tell so I want to see your reads.

guak you've convinced me you're town. I can definitely see pj and maniac being scum. So the good guys left are guak y2k warden and ILN?

@guak. I wasn't discounting it at all. Thought I'd already made this clear but...

Put yourselves in shoes of Mafia. You know who the cop and the Vig are
Vig has made his intentions clear on who he's going to shoot (me). Your not bothered as you know I'm a townie so this just makes your night kill ratio better. Why on earth would you even want to kill a Vig who's made it clear he's about to kill a townie?

Particualrly when you know cop is going to get another scan unless you RB or kill him, currently you appear to have no idea who the doctor is (going off the grounds that no-one else has claimed a RB) so your choices are pretty clear.

Yes - of course I may be wrong - I'm not psychic but this to me is the logical outcome.

Well, I think we're all forgetting a few possibilities: Maniac had claimed cop, and only krellin knew for sure that it was a fake. Krellin had previously claimed a power role, if the initial claim to stop his lynch was true, and Maniac's claim was true, then I think it's possible that whoever killed krellin thought he was doctor, not cop. I think this lends credence to the possibility that krellin was roleblocked, but unless we get a claim, and it doesn't look like we are, then it's clear that one of either krellin or ghug was RB'd.

Lizards would probably only RB ghug if he were aiming at them, while lizards might RB their kill target to a) ensure it got through against a doc self-save b) possibly claim RB for themselves c) block a kill action or d) to clear fewer townies.

@maniac: What I meant to say in the post that got cut off was, "Maniac, you're trying to say that your whole plan was to draw the fire of the scum off of the town power roles and onto yourself? You do realize that it's also going to draw the fire of the town too, right? Regardless, you look like scum now, and there's not much you can do about it at this point. (Additional side note, the mutant could afford to draw fire like this because it wouldn't kill him.)

Also, @maniac, if you're convinced that PJ is very likely to be mutant, why are you voting for guak? Sure, if he IS the lizard, then it makes sense to take out the lizard first, and deal with the already-caught mutant next, but if he's NOT the lizard, then we're put in an awful position because you didn't want to kill someone who stands out pretty clearly as scum. Unless you're one of those scum trying to get that position, your stance doesn't make much sense to me.

It's pretty clear to me that either PJ or Maniac is the mutant. I'm leaning more on PJ because of the potential of ghug shooting him, but Maniac's posts aren't convincing me that he's not the mutant either.

We don't know and can't know which of krellin or ghug was RB'd. I think ghug shooting PJ makes the most sense, unless he was lying about believing Maniac's claim, and intending to shoot him. (Possible I guess, though I think ghug would've been open about believing the claim, as he was about disbelieving it with bo_sox.)

Both of them make convincing Mutants to me, but PJ makes a more convincing lizard in the event that he's not a mutant. So unless something today changes that read, then PJ just makes the better choice as far as I'm concerned. (I've gtg for a couple hours again, but I think my stance is pretty clear.)

New info

No one attempted to roleblock me last night
No one attempted to roleblock me on N1 either.
I'm still not commenting on whether or not Doc visited me last night.
I was visited by the doc on N1 but I was not attacked (obv as we had 3 corpses).
I know my little charade was bought by the doc on N1
I know that Ghug (a good player) bought my roleclaim last night.
Others also appear to have bought my roleclaim judging by comments.

This raises the question WHY wasn't I roleblocked?

1/. The answer could be the mafia saw straight through me but if they didn’t believe I was Cop would they have thought I was fakeclaiming and was really the SK? Maybe, if so I was a threat to them and a candidate for roleblocking anyway.

2/. It could be that mafia thought Ghug was targeting them and had to roleblock him instead and just hope I didn’t scan them. That makes sense, particularly if last reptile is PJ or Guak.

3/. It could be that last reptile didn’t feel threatened by me. I think WD or Y2 would have felt very threatened by me, which leads me to conclude that neither of them tried to are the remaining reptile. (one of them could still be mutant)

My scum list (from top scum to bottom scum)
PJ
Guak (based on Ghug’s reads more than anything else)
ILN (is he still here?)
Y2
WD

I still think it is far more important for us to find reptile than SK as reptile have the RB and SK only has the ability to kill. That said, right now, I’d settle for shooting a good candidate for SK.

Still voting Guak but will shift to PJ if WD and Y2 want to vote him off.

@wd - your point about reptile RB krellin and killing him makes sense. Krellin said from beyond grave something like stupid doctor. This implies doctor never tried to save him but also that he knew doctor didn't try and save Ghug and failed. He would only know that for sure if he (krellin) was roleblocked. This adds credence to the possibility that Ghug got his shot off at PJ, and wasn't roleblocked. Which means of course PJ must be the mutant.

So Maniac - me suggesting a theory is suspect but you saying 'which means of course PJ must be the mutant' is fine.

Maniac has got to go, I am 99.9% sure he is scum. I'm nowhere near as convinced for anyone else. Of the scum reads being provided for guak and pj, I'm not too sure. My gut says that guak is town and PJ is scum. I need to formulate my reasons why much better, it's mostly all hunch right now on you two.

@WD - I hadn't considered that govt would be so against me. I'm sure that Vig would've shot me if I hadn't done the full reveal last night. I wanted to save myself (for the town) but also wanted vig not to waste a bullet on a town player. You are quite right this role could also be played by the SK.

You make a point about Krellin being the only person who knew I was fakeclaiming. That's very true. Look at our interaction. Late yesterday Guak, you and Y2 had me as possible mafia and yet Krellin didn't attempt to get me shot. he knew that I was playing the bodyguard role - I've been looking for his quote where he says something like 'a good town player should roleclaim after another player has roleclaimed. I know that was before my big reveal, but after I 'slipped'. Remember Krellin has had far longer than you guys to consider my motives.

Let's get rid of Maniac then.

@Y2 - we are now 4 v 2. If we vote off a bad guy today and loose a good guy overnight that makes us 3 v1. Which means we are at lynch or lose. If you guys vote me off you're down to 2 v1 - last baddy picks one of you off at night and you're at 1v1 - Govt can't win.

I need to be here at the end for govt to win. You have to accept that now.

If you are 99.9% convinced that I'm guilty then vote maniac vote end now. Two guys will jump at joining you and Govt loses.

Post your votes now Y2, I'm not spending another week playing a game I can't win because people refuse to think.

@PJ - you propose theories - I follow the evidence and make deductions.

@Maniac: you keep using the opinions of dead players to support your cases. Yet, these are only opinions. Just because they were said by a town player does not make them true. Dead town players were just as in the dark as those of us who are still alive. They had no special information that we do not have. Just because krellin thinks that it is ok for a townie to fakeclaim it does not mean that you are town. My belief is that a townie should never fakeclaim unless it is a win-lose situation. I would hardly call Day 1 or Day 2 scenarios as win-lose situations. Your fakeclaim is awfully scummy from my point of view and particularly because you planned a fakeclaim since the beginning of the game. I can see scum planning a fakeclaim, but not vanilla like you claim to be.

@ILN: where are you. Do you want to get yourself modkilled? Come on, speak up and vote.

@pj: how do you explain that there were only two kills if you are neither the mutant nor the last lizard?

The way I see it there are only three options: First, you were docsaved, which you have already said you weren't. Second, you were targetted and did not die because you have NK. This would make you mutant scum. Third, you were targetted and ghug was roleblocked. Given that ghug explicitly stated that you were the primary target, then a rb on ghug would mean you are the last lizard.

Am I missing something? If so, please explain it. If you manage to raise considerable doubt I will move back to Maniac.

##call Gm - how many votes on me and how many end votes does it take to bring hammer down.