Analyses of the seven remaining non-me people:
y2kjbk - First thing I notice is that he’s against a day-one lynch, which is somewhat mafia indicative. That said, given the stance everyone has on day-one lynches, I don’t see any scum putting themselves out there like that, especially the SK, who benefits from a day-one lynch provided that lynch isn’t him. In his first reads on page 8, he said that uclabb was “same as bosox” and gave them both null-to-town reads based on their positive efforts. Again, something I don’t think mafia would do. Uclabb voted for him when there were almost no votes on him, and bo voted for him when a Squigs lynch was nearly certain. Uclabb did then encourage votes on y2k. Uclabb and bo both put him on their scum lists at night. Bo turned down his scumread to slight once uclabb was dead. Said he was willing to vote bo before the bandwagon really formed, but doesn’t vote for him until he’s the leading candidate. He does say that he’s not going to change his vote until doing a thorough analysis on him and krellin, which he did do. He then moved off after looking more at day two discussion. Came out quickly against bo once he claimed. I don’t see a reason for SK or mafia to do this. Started discussion on finding the SK earlier tonight. I think that this would be a smart thing for the SK to do to try to get some idea of what the town are looking for, but it’s also a reasonable thing for town to do. Unlikely Mafia. Unlikely SK.
Krellin - Uclabb was the main aggressor all of the first day, and bo continued to attack him before the pressure was on on day two. He was willing to do anything to save himself day 1, which could be SK or could just be krellin doing what he thinks is best for his team. Not mafia. Possible SK.
Maniac - I trust the claim, and looking back at the end of yesterday, I don’t think bo would draw attention to the person defending him if that person were a teammate. Not mafia. Not SK.
WardenDresden - I don’t find his early vote on Chaqa suspicious, but it’s a bit odd how willing he was to move off of it when the town came under fire. Uclabb doesn’t put him in his list of people to lynch early, and bo lists him as null, which is probably fair given his limited contributions at the time. Reads bo as scummy and votes for him on page 14, but gives no uclabb read at the time. Jumps on the Squigs bandwagon when bo doesn’t pick up momentum. Wants a clarified claim from krellin, something I see as scummy. That said, I see the logic around his actions here as consistent, so in the big picture it doesn’t really push him towards scum in my mind. Uclabb lists him just on the scummy side of the middle of his list of most likely to least likely scum during the night. Bo lists him as slight scum. He’s quick to analyze uclabb’s past, but bo isn’t mentioned at all in his analysism,which I find odd because I think uclabb flipping made bo look pretty scummy, and he was quick to agree with me later. Reading on, he’s quick to get back on bo’s case again. Jumps on the bo train when bo says he wants to lynch an innocent krellin. He’s big on this point, but not the first to point it out (t’was me), and it’s possible he elected to be proactive in busing his teammate following a bad slip. Was quickly against killing bo, which I again see as pretty town. Overall, nothing conclusive. Possible mafia. Possible SK.
Guak - Initial reads are highly hedged, but it’s also page 4, so they kind of have to be. Bo gives him a strong early town read early on, which is the same thing he did with uclabb. On page 7 he has a scuffle with bo about perceived intention to buddy up, it could just as easily be a townie pointing out something suspicious or scum coaching a mafia buddy. He directs a defense of bo at uclabb after uclabb calls out the same action as scummy. On page 10, bo makes a judgement call to lump guak with the non-lurkers rather than the lurkers based on the quality of his posts. On his reads list during the night, he has a category titled “Slight Scum (Cannot quite put my finger around why they are suspicious to me, but they stand out a little)” containing only bo and uclabb. Bo and uclabb both list him as their highest townread during the night. Everyone else seemed to be reading hum as null, so it strikes me as odd that they would both go out on a limb to townread him. When uclabb flips, bo clears guak based on uclabb’s read of him. Again reads bo as slight scum. He says this on page 27, “@everyone: still around 24 hours to go, how about giving bo a small break. I agree he is a very interesting choice for a hanging, but let's not get stuck all day on him. We should try to talk about others too. I still think ILN is being terribly scummy, and I still cannot bring myself to trust ghug after he chose to ignore Squigs defense and went after him so hard. In fact, the main reason the bo lynch is not convincing me is that it was originally led by ghug.” He’s trying to undermine the case against bo based on his scumread of me, which would be flawed enough if his scumread of me weren’t based entirely on my being wrong, which is a very town thing to be. He accused pj of saying he was willing to vote bo without reasoning in the same post. On page 30, “I will move my vote to bo if the Maniac wagon does not pick up strenght as he is a very close second.” This is a nice way to set up a bus when your teammate is under pressure without actually adding strength to the wagon. He also never showed back up to change his vote, seemingly returning right after the phase ended. The lurking combined with the defense of bo makes me quite suspicious, and I don’t think that uclabb and bo townreading him was as conclusive as I thought it was. Probabe mafia. Possible SK.
pjmansfield99 - Offers comments on uclabb on page 4 that I just can’t make sense of. Bo questions his vote on krellin in the first set of reads. Inconclusive reads on bo and uclabb. Uclabb lists him as a top townread. He is the first one to call attention to Maniac’s roleslip. Bo and uclabb both list him as solidly town overnight. Votes krellin in the morning, which is just, like, what? Lists bo as scummy. Says he’s willing to vote bo because he seems to be the favorite, this looks suspicious, but less so when you realize that bo is his second scumread and his first (krellin) is not gathering traction. ADvocates for keeping bo alive, citing M3. I see this as scummy because of the difference in game states (fewer players left, fewer scum left). If he were mafia, he would want to keep his teammate alive. If he were the SK, he would want to keep a fake SK alive to keep pressure off of himself. I don’t see his actions as particularly mafia-aligned, but the lurking and the defense of bo have me leaning scum of some kind. Possible mafia, Probable SK.
ILN - Bo reads ILN null early, presumably because he’s said almost nothing. Follows uclabb onto krellin. Uclabb justifies his strangeness as newness in his first reads. Uclabb makes a similar case on page 12. Bo says that ILN “needs to come out of his shell” shortly after night begins. uclabb reads him as town. Bo reads him as null. Watches survivor, clearly not human. Reads bo as scum. It’s his only read with substantial explanation (2 whole sentences, one of which has a comma splice). If I were mafia on a team with ILN, I’d probably tell him to scumread me and then wat for the town to decide to lynch him. Disappears and then comes back after the phase ends to take credit. Starts voting at night because he doesn’t understand how the game works. I honestly think he’s just a terrible player. I feel like it would be more obvious if he were mafia, although he could still be SK. Unlikely mafia. Possible SK.
With that, most to least likely mafia:
guak
pj
WD
ILN
y2k
krellin
Maniac
ghug
Most to least likely SK:
pj
krellin
WD
ILN
guak
y2k
Maniac
ghug
As I said before, I think the better Vig strategy right now is to try to hit the SK so that we can confirm him. Combine that with the fact that I have pj pretty high in the mafia list too and I hope that if the Vig is still online, he’ll consider shooting pj.
If this is my last post, goodbye, all. It’s been fun. Catch that damn lizard and the mutant too. May the force be with you, always.
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Oh noes...the AIDS Researchers...
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