Build phase is over, btw.

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This is for Fall 01.

England taking Nor with a F instead of an A is a bit reassuring to Russia. The question is, does England continue his pursuit and try to take St. Pete, or does he France head on? Gaining an SC was vital for England, but not doing it with an A could put a stop on some of the plans that he had. Securing Lon was important, but getting a F in Liv will most likely stop France untill England can get more Fs over to help. England is faced with a rather easy choice. France seems to want war, but Russia looks to be impassive for the time being.

France moving to the Irish Sea was pretty bold. It was a bit early for a move like that, as it let England know that France is after him, and gave him the time to respond. Germany taking Bur makes things a little more difficult, as France may now have two enemies, but the move is easier to counter with two builds.

Germany made a statement by taking Bur, but he may be in over his head. Contending with France will be rather interesting, as they both got two builds this turn. Bouncing Russia in Swe also may have made Russia rather annoyed, but it tells England that Germany is on his side.

Italy: Convoying the A from Apu-Tun is an interesting move. It sets Italy up to be able to go after either Turkey or France in one turn. Relations with Austria have been improved, and Italy is still vertually nutral.

Austria remains impassive toward Turkey for now, and looks to be rubbing the wrong way with Russia. Trying to take Rum may have make things ugly between the two of them. Italy's further nutrality to Austria has given Austria one less thing to worry about.

Turkey, it seems, doesn't want to aid Russia. Or, at least, for now. Taking the BlkSea gives Turkey enormous levrage to swing the battle one way or the other in the upper Balkans. It's also worriesome to Russia, as an A in Arm could be his ultimate demise.
Austria not bouncing Turkey in Gre allows him to have a much stronger over all position than normal, and Turkey getting two builds will be a helpful boost.

Russia got royally screwed in the fall. Bouncing with Germany in Swe, AND with Austria in Rum, makes it so that Russia doesn't get any builds this turn. Turkey taking the BlkSea could be very good, or it could be very bad. St. Pete-Fin leaves St. Pete open, but with France's moving on England, Russia probably won't have to worry about it.

ok, now for the builds.

England: A preemptive build in Liv hinders France for now.

France: Not building a F in Bre is probably not the best thing. However, with Germany's invasion, France needs to be able to defend his SCs and be able to take Por next turn, so there's not really much he can do.

Germany's building two As does two things: First, it helps Germany be able to take on France, and second, it says to England that Germany's not interested in attacking him right now.

Italy: Building a F in Nap further helps Austria trust him, and it goes along with being able to attack France or Turkey with the flip of a coin.

Austria: No real surprise with an A in Bud, as Austria has made it clear that he wants Rum. The A in Bud will let him take it, if Russia and Turkey don't work together.

Turkey building two Fs in Con and Smy, instead of an A in Ank, tells Russia that Turkey doesn't want to attack him at this point, and it also indicates that Turkey is going after either Italy or Austria's flank.

Russia: Poor Russia, no builds for you.

Commentary end of 01:

Btw, I plan on commenting twice a year- following the spring moves and the builds.

Austria: Has survived 01 and is in solid shape. A key alliance with Italy appears to be materializing as indicated by the mutual supports in Trieste and Venice. One of Austria’s most difficult decisions was what to do with A(Gal). In choosing to support himself to Rumania, Austria may have hoped to pick up a second build and certainly knew that Russia would be denied a southern build. Russia move to support a fleet to Rumania (which would be unable to support further conquests in the interior) may have been a final attempt to send Austria a subtle message of peaceful intent. Clearly Austria’s move to Rumania will chill relations with Russia, but Austria can take comfort in its growing friendship with Italy. Of course, in choosing to bounce Russia, Austria allowed to the Turk to pick up a build in Greece and has allowed the sultan out of his cage. Time will tell whether or not Austria denied the wrong player a build. As we move into the next year, Austria is secure in its current centers. However, there are some questions as to his offensive potential. All 3 armies will probably be needed to secure Rumania,. However, with the Turk’s move to Greece, both Serbia and Budapest may be tied up fighting off further Turkish advances.

Italy: Italy’s build of a southern fleet and continued support to Trieste confirms Italy’s friendly intentions towards Austria. Italy’s ability to remain indecisive in the south has been dashed by the Turks threatening construction of two southern fleets. Italy will need both fleets to maintain control of the crucial Ionian Sea zone. His ability to harry the Turks eastern shores is limited with Turkey’s two builds. So, like Austria, Italy is secure in his 4 centers, but questions emerge as to what his offensive capability is. To be sure, there are some options open, but that will depend on solid cooperation with the Austrian.

Turkey: The biggest winner during the first year in the south is Turkey. Securing a second build for Turkey is a milestone as it indicates that the Turk is out of his cage. Once out, it can be difficult to force him back in. The Turk should feel threatened by the emerging A-I alliance, but can take comfort in having two fleets to protect his western shores. Russia’s ability to strike at his back door is virtually non-existent, and quite frankly the Russian will most likely be forced to turn to the Turk for support. Turkey has several options open to him going into the next year. Does he make an attempt for Serbia or Rumania, or should he solidify an alliance through offering support in Rumania. His Black Sea fleet and A(Bul) certainly have the ability to cast the deciding vote. The lines are increasingly being set in the south; in the end, tactics will be the deciding factor as to which nation emerges triumphant.

Russia: Opening with a zero build year is never a good sign for Russia. Still, much potential remains for this sleeping giant. With his own strong north move, the German’s bouncing him in Sweden and Austria’s grab for Rumania, Russia is a nation in need of a friend. Of his four neighbors, Turkey is the most likely source of support for the faltering Russian. While Turkey chose not to support the Russian to Rumania, the Russian can take comfort in the Turk's builds and hope that the emerging A-I alliance forces the Turk into his camp. Russia continues to have difficult choices in the south next year as the Austrian presence in Galicia remains a threat to both Warsaw and Rumania.

In the north, it appears that E-G may grow closer as they both enter into conflict with France. This could bode poorly for the Russian’s northern endeavors. His move to Finland may help him secure Sweden, but will it be at the cost of St. Pete’s? With four units spread evenly between two fronts, Russia may be forced to choose one front to focus on in the years to come.

Germany: Germany made another bold play in the west this season. His offer of support to Burgundy from Paris which would allow France to march into Belgium without contest freed up one northern French unit to move either against Germany or England. In choosing to invade France with A(Mun) Germany was faced with two questions: if France moves against me, why wait? And if France moves against, England, why wait (since France would then be at war with two countries)? In either case, a move against France had the potential of benefiting the Reich. By building two army units, Germany may be sending a friendly signal to England who also now appears to be in conflict with France. With France’s two army builds, the German is unlikely to pick up a French home center. However, the coveted Belgium build is now very much in danger of falling to the wehrmact. In the north, Germany chose to forgo friendship with Russia, and bounced him in Sweden. With this year’s builds in, it is uncertain whether the German will be able to play anything more than a spoiling action against the Russian in Scandinavia.

England: The English secured their key second build in Norway. Supporting his North Sea fleet into Norway was a bit of a gamble, but it ensured a new build since offering support from the North Sea could have been cut by either the French fleet in the EC or the German fleet in Denmark. England was a nation under pressure in the spring as Russia moved strong north and France appeared to be courted by the German chancellor. The fall has greatly altered the English’s state of affairs. The German’s invasion of France and all army builds coupled with Russia’s move to Finland takes a lot of pressure off of England. Danger remains with the French fleet in the Irish Sea. England’s fleet build may be the most versatile choice, but requires extra guess work to protect his centers should he choose to go on the offensive in the north with his fleets in Norway and the Norwegian Sea.

France: The French empereur while gaining a material advantage in the first year will need to regroup in order to secure his gains. Diplomatically, the German may have outmaneuvered him in the fall and in this gunboat setting it will be a challenge for France to engineer another diplomatic revolution. Portugal remains open, but will he have the luxury of capturing it this year?The time for bold moves is now as the French move to expel the German from his borders and if at all possible retain Belgium. The F(Irish Sea) is a wild card. Should it be used to out maneuver the English and potentially pick up a center or should it be pulled back so as to defend/regain control of Belgium? Thankfully for France, Italy will probably be forced on containing the emerging Turkish flotilla.

Look forward to further developments in 02.

oops, should read England picked up its key 01 build.

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Actually, that shouldn't have been a bump. I have a question. I read in the other thread that there may be a place for players to send their thoughts about the game so that they could be filtered and disseminated, or at least held until the game was over with. Are we doing this? I can't remember who volunteered to take on this responsibility.

I think that was an idea that was thrown out, and Barn3tt volunteered, but I believe that it could lead to messages being surreptitiously passed on. Save your thoughts somewhere for your end of game statement.

Any final comments before the impending phase change?

Commentary S02:

Already we can see some big developments this year.

Russia: Russia had a huge season this spring as the winds of fortune appear to be shifting. Austria’s realization that Serbia must be defended lead to the easy fall of Rumania to Russia’s southern fleet. That this was taken with Turkish support is a welcome sign to the ostracized bear. As important was Russia’s correct read on Austria’s Galician army’s movement to Warsaw. In the north, Russia benefited from a misread by the wehrmacht and slipped into Sweden. With the German fleet out of position, Russia has secured a northern center for the time being and may even be able to bring pressure on Norway. With two important builds coming at the end of this year, the Russian army will be on the march next spring.

Turkey: Turkey wisely secured an alliance and a build for his northern neighbor this year. The Aegean will fall to the Turkish navy this fall with support of the E. Med. The main question in the Turk’s mind must be Greece. Greater Russian support will be coming next year and additional support will be available once the Aegean falls, but will this be in time to save Greece?

Austria: Austria’s most significant move was to shift F(Tri) to Albania. Clearly the time has come to risk fully trusting Italy. The Albanian fleet may play a deciding role in Greece if Italy and Austria can coordinate. Picking up a center is important as Russia will be bringing additional forces into the fray next year.

Italy: Italy’s move to the Aegean has bought the A-I forces a little time to make a move in the south. However, that window will be closing soon. An open Trieste is always a temptation to an Italian player, but with the Turks fleets coming on strong, Italy will most likely resist temptation.

England: Pretty safe movements coming from England. The French fleet has withdrawn and the North Sea has been reoccupied. England must be disappointed with the recent developments in the north. Unfortunately, England’s anticipatory support move to Sweden from Denmark fell through. With the German’s move out of position, England will be unable to renew this offer until Denmark is reoccupied. On the bright side, this support is a further sign of the warming friendship between England and Germany. However, with the German’s move to the Baltic, England must once again think of defending Norway from the Russian. This will unfortunately tie down half of England’s armed forces. With an army stranded in London, England’s only means of going on the offensive is his F(Irish Sea).

Germany: Germany’s third season has been a setback as the fickle fortunes of war continue to shift. In the north, Germany anticipated a move to the strategic Baltic Sea zone. From there, the Russian fleet would threaten 3 German centers simultaneously. Unfortunately for the German, the Russian used this opportunity to sneak into Sweden. That Russia will most likely pick up two units this year must be a distressing development for the German high command as the prospect of a two front war begins to emerge. A final ramification of Germany’s misread in the north is that less help will be forthcoming from the English in the west. England’s fleet in the North Sea could have played a deciding role in Belgium.

In France, Germany failed to capitalize on his tactical advantage in the north. Three- fourths of his armies failed in their movement orders. While Germany may have successfully diplomatically isolated the French empereur, it remains to be seen whether he can tactically bring about his destruction. The German may have moved to Picardy in anticipation of French support from Belgium to Burgundy in order to cancel out the obvious German move of Burgundy to Belgium with support from Holland. If this is the case, then the German should have kept Burgundy stationary and let the French move him rather than moving out of the way of his own accord. Should he have misread the Frenchman’s movements a backup plan would be available if Munich had supported Kiel to Ruhr. As is, Belgium remains precariously in French hands and the German’s ability to take it this year remains uncertain.

France: The armies of France moved quickly to beat back the German invasion. The German has given the empereur a window of opportunity to hold onto Belgium before the French-German border is locked down in troop heavy trench warfare. Another build for France (Portugal) is key, but can France risk opening up the Mid-Atlantic? Should he pick up another unit, France would have the power to counteract a combined E-G attack as his 6 units would match up with England 2 southern units and Germany’s 4 armies. The rest of E-G’s forces will probably be tied up in the north as France too benefits from the emerging Russian empire.

@Barn3tt - a few questions from my end about gunboat play in general.

1. There is often a tradeoff between going for a build versus scattering your units/ leaving a flank open. What is a good rule of thumb to follow when making the decision of going for a build vs. leaving a flank open?

2. You said in your opening comments that there might be situations where you are getting attacked very aggressively and all you can do is wait until the aggressor gets attacked from a different quarter. I have seen some players just give up and CD in these situations, as they will have to start disbanding units soon anyway. What are the benefits of giving up vs. sticking in there and fighting it out even though you've got at most 2-4 years to survive?

Quick notes on the two key battles of this season (I'll get to your questions later today, Ava).

Greece: In the south, the key battle was for Greece. With a second Turkish fleet coming into play, this was the last sure opportunity for Greece to fall to the A-I forces. A-I should have expected the Tukish E. Med fleet to attempt to cut support offered from the Ionian and for Bulgaria to either offer support to Greece or cut support in Serbia. Austria chose to support F. Albania to Greece with Serbia. While this move would have resulted in the biggest gains for Austria (extra build, fleet ready for action in the south), it was also the move least likely to succeed. Supporting A(Serbia) to Greece with F(Albania) and moving A(Bud) to Serbia would be a gamble. The sure move, however, was to support Italy's Ionian fleet to Greece. Italy, as evident by his move, was cued to attempt this based on the previous seasons support move to Greece from Serbia. As is, Greece will now be much harder to take.

Belgium: It is not surprising that Belgium fell as it has been tenuously in France's grasp for the whole of this year. However, was it possible for France to have a 100% chance of retaining the center for yet another season. The answer is yes it was. Germany's two options of attack were: A(Pic) support A(Hol) to Bel or the more likely A(Hol) support A(Pic) to Bel. In either case, it would be expected that A(Mun) would cut support in Burgundy. France's answer to this dilema: A(Par) support A(Bel) to Pic, A(Gas)-Brest (to cut off a possible retreat) and A(Bur)-Bel. These moves would have countered either of Germany's options. I

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we are almost done with S03 and still need commentary for F02.

Commentary End of 02:

Southern Theater: With things locking down in the far south, the northern territories in this theater will become more important. Russia will be looking to fight his way into Galatia while Austria must be struggling to figure out how to prevent this. A-I will be watching Germany closely as his extra build could bring welcome relief from the growing Russian.

Northern Theater: Russia move to keep Germany out of Denmark was a good one as it may help keep pressure of Sweden for a little longer. This would be particularly true if Germany hadn't managed to pick up the extra build. A lot of room for creative moves in this front during 03.

Western Theater: With the loss of Belgium and Italy's move to Piedmont, France is a nation under siege at this point. However, with 5 centers and opponents who may have difficulty bringing overwhelming force to bear, it is possible for France to hunker down and hope for changes in other Theaters to save the day.

Ava, in regards to your two earlier questions-

I'll start with the second question first because, well, it is the easier one to answer.

. You said in your opening comments that there might be situations where you are getting attacked very aggressively and all you can do is wait until the aggressor gets attacked from a different quarter. I have seen some players just give up and CD in these situations, as they will have to start disbanding units soon anyway. What are the benefits of giving up vs. sticking in there and fighting it out even though you've got at most 2-4 years to survive?

My view on this is that if you want to get better, stick it out. Beating another player to a bloody pulp when he is outgunned and diplomatically isolated does not force you to develop any tactical abilities. Fighting it out when you're in a tough spot does. I've seen players give up on rather good positions at the first sign of trouble. There are a lot of ups and downs in this game and it takes weathering through the downs to see this.

Very interesting game and commentary so far. I'm looking forward to seeing how the rest of this plays out.

Commentary S03

Austria: It appears that there were a few misodrers this year. However, I'm not sure that they would have altered any of the outcomes. There’s nothing worse than a game changing misorder. So, Austria should be at least a little relieved. A-I still has some potential in Greece. Coordination in a gunboat game may prove problematic though. With Russia's move to Galacia, Austria is under greater pressure and could face losing a center. However, coordination may be a problem for R-T as well. Two things going for Austria though are Germany's move to Silesia which will mean A(Warsaw) will remain on the defensive and F(Rumania)'s inability to support inland.

Italy: The move to Piedmont may have been to reassure Austria. Picking up a French center may be helpful, but it could also hasten the arrival of a stronger neighbor to the west. Italy will have to weigh this decision carefully. Italy seems ready to keep on the attack with F(Ionian). This adds to A-I's offensive capability, but risks losing the Ionian which Italy may not be too concerned with as he has Tunis covered.

Turkey: Turkey’s Aegean fleet is a welcome addition to the Turkish line. Russia’s successful move to Galacia opens up some potential for the Turk, but it will take some difficult coordination to realize any advantage from it. In the southern theater of war, it appears long years of trench warfare awaits both alliance blocks.

Russia: In the southern theater, Russia made a key advance into Galacia. From here, he can put pressure on two of Austrian home centers. This is quite the reversal of fortunes from the first two years of this game. Unfortunately, A(War) will probably be tied down by Germany’s move to Silesia. Being able to bring a second army in to play would have made further movement into Austria much easier. In the north, Russia made a bold move in to Finland and St. Petersburg. While technically outnumbered in the north (counting F(North)), Russia has the distinct advantage of unity of command. The northern theater appears the most fluid and it will be interesting to see if Russia’s next move is defensive or offensive.

France: France continues to defend his realm with élan. By proactively defending against the German’s advances, he has frustrated numerous move orders issued by the wehrmact. With the Ruhr unoccupied, it will be difficult for Germany to make inroads into France proper. England has moved to the EC which brings some additional pressure on France’s north. However, Italy’s decision to sit tight in Piedmont is good news that more than offsets England’s offensive move. Currently, E-G has 4 units bearing down on France. With 5 units of his own, France may be able to take the fight to them.

England: England’s move to the EC gives him the ability to take some offensive measures. Up until now, England has been forced to play a defensive game. Scandinavia has some potential for E-G, though it is unlikely that England will see a build here for some time. The move to Yorkshire would have provided defense against a move to the Irish Sea or North Atlantic by France. At some point, England will need to make a bold move in order to advance in the game.
Germany: Germany is tied with Russia for the most centers. However, with units active in all 3 theaters of war, it will be interesting to see if he can bring the decisive force to bear needed to advance in any of them. The most potential lies in the north, but this will take some key coordination with England to materialize anything.

Commentary End of 03:

Southern Theater- no gains or losses, not much to comment on yet.

Western Theater- no gains or losses, with France offering friendship to Italy with a support hold.

Northern Theater- As predicted, this where the action was. Russia decided to knock England out of Norway which allowed Germany to seize Sweden. It was unlikely he'd pick up a center this year. Perhaps he felt Norway would be easier to hold. In any event, the net result was that Germany gained a center and England lost one. Time will tell whether this was a wise decision. Germany, with an additional army in Berlin, looks to be going on the offensive in the east which will make him a more dangerous enemy for the Russian. A lot will depend on England. Being reduced to three centers is never a good sign and I will be curious to see how England responds.

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ah, sorry guys, i'm not really gonna be able to do the commentary for awhile. it looks like Barn3tt has it covered though.

Another phase change. jwalters, since you're online, would you like to give it a shot?

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Commentary S04:

Turkey- The sultan has chosen to sit tight. Russia’s multiple attacks on Budapest could have been opportunity for the Turk to make a move, but he has chosen to play it safe. With the Russia’s expulsion from Galacia, the opportunity for offensive action has been greatly diminished. E. Med’s support hold of the Ionian is an interesting overture to the Italian.

Austria- A-I seems to be well coordinated in their attacks on Greece which are pinning most of Turkey’s armies down. With the advance of the wehrmacht in the east, Austria seized the opportunity to retake Galacia. With Russia’s central forces under pressure, Austria’s A(Galacia) could play a decisive role this year.

Italy- Italy continues to stand firm with Austria. If there is a breakthrough in Russia, it may be some time before it benefits this central power. Italy’s decision to reciprocate France’s diplomatic overture appears to indicate a NAP between the two powers.

Russia- Russia’s decision to take Norway has come back to haunt him this year. That decision caused England to lose an ineffectual army and provided his Germanic foe with extra teeth. His move to Livonia may have been anticipation of a convoy to Livonia from Berlin- Livonia being a soft spot for Russia as it simultaneously threatens three home centers. As is, the Russian is likely to lose a center. His army has been expelled from Galacia. While he has retaken Sweden, Norway has been lost to the British. St. Petersburg is currently undefended and threatened between two units. Furthermore, Warsaw is facing two German units and further threatened by an Austrian army. His greatest hope is that the allied powers that have arrayed themselves against him fail to coordinate their efforts properly. Last year it was France who looked to Russia for hope in weakening their common foe; now, the Russian must be equally hoping that France makes good on his recent advances and forces the German to shift forces west.

England: Despite last year’s setbacks, England has chosen to stand firm with his German comrade. With Norway retaken and the Russian reeling, England’s decision seems to be paying off. The loss of his army has forced his fleet to take defensive measures. This should give French greater flexibility in pressing the attack.

Germany: Germany has fully embraced the two front war. In the east, he has put his reinforcements to good use- t hreatening multiple Russian targets simultaneously. However, with the loss of Sweden and Belgium it is possible that wehrmact may face budget cuts in the coming year. Should the French manage to retain Belgium, Germany’s offensive ability will be greatly hampered.

France: France’s successful advance is welcome news to the French empereur. With E-G’s eyes focused on the east, France has taken advantage of the eastern diversion. An extra unit will give France the muscle to press his gains in the west. He too must be looking to Russia as E-G gains there may be diverted to thwart his territorial ambitions in the west.

We might have an NMR. Could a mod pause this game?

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