Oooooooooooh yeeeeaaaaah

Alright well I have work in 8 hours so I'm out. Should be on around lunch tomorrow to plan with my reptile buddies

<slither slither slither...>

I disagree. We haven't had scum (except for PE in the failed Mafia 3.0) actually make a false claim yet, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this was the time it came up. It protected you from a day 1 lynch, and IF it's fake, you're talking with your lizard buddies about how to take advantage of it as we speak. As someone who looked at the "history" of our past games, I would hardly put this past you.

The only way we'll ever be able to confirm your claim as true or false is if/when the other human roles are revealed, or in the unlikely event we get a couple of lizards before that happens. So, EVENTUALLY you will have to either give us all more info, you we're going to have to shoot you to prove it.

Absolutely asking you to clarify the reveal now would be reptilian, but that's not what I'm doing here.

Krellin has put us in an interesting position. Obviously we don't want him revealing more than he has to, but we also can't treat him as cleared, and he likely has to be saved tonight (I'm gonna be extremely pissed at you if you're the doctor).

Warden - if that isn't what you are doing, then DROP THE SUBJECT.

ghug, as I said a few posts ago, you best option as the town at this point is to ignore the statement I made, and assume I am just like anyone else. I am an absolutely unknown quantity, just as every other townie. IN reality, my ploy changes nothing other than your perceptions -- but this entire game is about manipulating perceptions, not matter what you role of lack thereof in the game.

So - you lynch me if you think I'm scum. You don't lynch me if you don't think I'm scum.

I played to card to save my ass because you people were - as I predicted early in the day - on a death march to lynch someone, ANYONE...and you all succeeded.

So tell me all your blood thirsty clowns -- what brilliant bit of information did ANY of you gather from killing Squiggs, other than to verify my claim that your psychic powers suck? No information was gained at all by his death. Thus, I have no moral qualms about having to lie about something to save my ass.

It failed, but it didn't have to. If we let all of the killing be done by scum, we'll never catch them. Squigs' lynch doesn't provide info yet, but once we do catch someone, the votes will tell us quite a bit. If he had been guilty, we would have a ton of information right now. As is, we should probably keep an eye on people like me, vocally in favor of the lynch, and Chaqa, vocally opposed. Every piece of information helps.

Would you advocate a no-lynch tomorrow? If not, what has changed?

In and of itself, the failed lynch doesn't give us any information, but it's a base from which to build once we DO get a confirmed reptile kill. Who was willing to let him die without defending him, who pressed him hard, who played up cases for his guilt or innocence? All of these things, when combined with a lizard flip will help us catch the other lizards.

Crap. :(

I'm sorry squigs. I would have changed my vote if I'd been here. I was reading up sequentially, and you absolutely had me convinced before I got to the end. I probably should have unvoted.

On the krellin stuff -- Warden isn't being reptilian, and krellin isn't being reptilian.

I think town is now a severe underdog to win. I take a lot of responsibility. I came on squigs a lot harder than I should have. Sorry again squigs, and thank you for your dying analyses.

As many of us said earlier, krellin, the information we gained will only be apparent down the road. Had we gotten the lynch on either you or y2k, we'd have been able to confirm the survivor of the two of you as either town or scum, whatever the other turned up as, but we didn't get that. I think the potential of sniffing out a pair of scum so early in the game should be taken into consideration in day two, but my point is that that's the only way we would have gotten immediate info.

I agree with ghug about the claim. You saved yourself, wisely doing so whether your claim is accurate or not, but you aren't clear by any means. WD made a point to remind you that if you were ever to reveal entirely (at this point, unless we have counter claims, you probably won't ever need to) not to do it right now. Yeah, that's scummy, but it's not enough on him, not yet. That's all that needs to be said on the matter right now - you are alive, but not clear. I do agree with you though, krellin, in that saying anything beyond that is scummy, so let's keep an eye on WD.

As for day one lurkers that slipped by at least thus far, I think ILN needs to begin to come out of his shell or else he'd be taking a chance at having to look on as an observer. He tried to make some cases but they weren't particularly good, and I think putting more effort into quoting people that make scummy remarks will help there. Chaqa, as I already mentioned, needs to drop the attitude, but he knows what he has to do, so we'll see. WD needs to come out swinging, as well as PJ, and doing anything otherwise, especially for two guys that have already played the mafia role, will come off as incredibly scummy. I think everyone else has been okay in terms of lurking.

Otherwise, let's hope we all make it through the night and get some fresh reads posted at first daylight.

ghug, no the killing Squiggs was mostly a mad rush that means almost nothing.

And no ghug, I wouldn't advocate a no-lynch on Day2, and never before did I say so.

For someone that like to say "Reads Please" you sure as hell have poor reading skills.

krellin, you already said that your prior antipathy toward a day one lynch was an elaborate ruse. Are you really resuming it again?

Causing chaos and confusion is one of the hallmarks of scum. I think I'm ready, with several others, to take a long hard look at a krellynch tomorrow.

krellin, can you answer the second part of my question then? If, as you claim, we gained no information from the death of Squigs, and, as you claim, a day one lynch is useless, what makes a day two lynch any less useless? Don't we still have a complete lack of information?

For someone who likes to accuse others of things, you sure do make a habit of being guilty of those very same things.

semck. I stand by my assertion that a day one lynch is **stupid**.

I also recognize that the blood thirsty clowns of Webdipistan will not recognize this truth, and therefore I advocated a Lurker lynch.

I *ALSO* advocated you all go through the ruse of trying to pick someone to lynch to get people to react, and then UNVOTE at the end of the day before the inevitable townie lynch took place. This would have given you your reads, and saves us from highly probably townie lynching.

I have explained this multiple times. If you ask me again, I will AGAIN tell you the same thing.

You can continue to feign ignorance of what I have said in order to run another Day 2 lynch band-wagon, or you can accept that I was CORRECT in my analysis and move on.

"I *ALSO* advocated you all go through the ruse of trying to pick someone to lynch to get people to react, and then UNVOTE at the end of the day before the inevitable townie lynch took place. This would have given you your reads, and saves us from highly probably townie lynching."

Wow, I'm sure that would have worked really well. Mafia are dumb as posts, so they would never realize that the town was going to carry out the "Let's all unvote" plan that had just been hatched under their noses.

Gonna answer me, krellin?

You're posting the same thing over and over and over again, krellin. Do you think you can beat it into our heads the thirty-second time?

Wow, that was a lot to catch up to. I am sorry I missed the deadline as I fear my vote could had been useful lynching someone other than Squigs.

@Squigs: I think you got hanged for the exact same reasons I got you hanged in M3. I thought you played a better townie this time around, and thus did not want to lynch you, but those who did not play M3 had not made the mistake I made and could not know it is just your playing style. Piece of advice: you really should stop caring what others think of you the next time you are town.

Now that the talking with the dead thing is over, on to some questions:

@semck: There is a post right before you went missing before the deadline that I did not quite understand because you urged people to move their votes to Chaqa, but you did not vote Chaqa and stayed on Squigs. What's up with that? If you had bought into Squigs's defense and thought Chaqa was a better scum lynch, why not back it up with a vote? Thanks for the answer in advance.

@krellin: First of all, stop buddying up to Chaqa. Your back and forth hissing reminds me of M2 and your little chats with pj. Now regarding serious matters: Why did you act so erratically if you have a town power role?

@ghug: Please explain your push on Squigs. I think Squigs defense was actually quite good and he pointed out that it seemed like you were analyzing everything he did as scummy no matter what. I do not believe his reaction to your initial accusation was terribly scummy, as I too thought you were high or something after reading it. And I also believe the town power role comment was blown terribly out of proportion even if I was the first to point it out. Overall, Squigs was one of the most active players in the game and the case against him was rather weak. There were far better targets for a lynch (Chaqa, y2k and ILN come to mind) who had similarly weak cases against them and were far less significant losses in case of mislynch, yet you kept pushing for the Squigs lynch even after Squigs posted a great defense. So, I want to know: Why Squigs?

@everyone who voted to kill Squigs: It is worth noting that Squigs built two late cases after posting his defense which is an incredibly townie thing to do and no one moved their votes off him. That makes me suspect mostly everyone who was online at the deadline. You have all climbed a few spots in my suspect list.

@y2k: I don't know how you always manage to end up between my suspects, but I would rather not make the same mistake I did last time around. So, I ask. If you know your behavior is scummy and that you have done nothing so far to help the town, why did you wait until you almost died before offering to correct said behavior?

@ILN: I understand you are new, and that card apparently gave you a pardon for Day 1, but I think you have not just failed but actually have not even addressed the concerns that have been raised about you. I have asked you many questions in previous posts and made detailed accusations as well as asked for more activity and you have chosen to ignore all of my posts. If you are town that is terrible, terrible play. That makes you my top scum read still. Please, explain yourself and answer previous questions such as: your *human* instincts remark, your initial unexplained vote on WD, your understanding of what krellin was doing that you chose not to explain and then simply unvoting without a satisfactory explanation given.

@Chaqa: I supported your erratic town behavior in M2 as I had you down as inexperienced town. But now you are already experienced. If you are in fact town you should know better than to act the way you did on Day 1. I understand a certain level of randomness is to be expected from you, much like impulsive actions are to be expected from me at some point of the game, but I think you have not even attempted to help like you did in the other games. Please pick it up and start doing some case building like you did last time that helped find Gtl.

Guak's Updated Ranking of Reads:

SCUM (from most to least)

ILN
semck (pending response to question asked above)
ghug (pending explanations)
Chaqa
y2k

Slight Scum (Cannot quite put my finger around why they are suspicious to me, but they stand out a little)
Bosox
uclabb

NULL
pj
Maniac

Slight Town
krellin: I believe him for now. Everything may change by morning.
WD: he will probably be lynched on Day 2 no matter what he does since it is apparently his destiny in every mafia game he plays, but I am leaning town here. Reminds me more of M2 WD than M3 WD.

100% Vanilla:
good ol' guak
meme the cap
The late Squigs

Alright guak, you pose some fair questions.

"He pointed out that it seemed like you were analyzing everything he did as scummy no matter what."
I disputed this claim at the time (page 14), and I stand by all of the evidence I gave against him. Obviously I came to the wrong conclusion, but Squigs was behaving quite lizardlike, and clearly I wasn't the only one who thought so.

"he pointed out that it seemed like you were analyzing everything he did as scummy no matter what."
I made actual points before the little Ulysses rant. He chose to focus only on the part where I did something silly while ignoring the actual substance. That's what I found suspicious.

"And I also believe the town power role comment was blown terribly out of proportion even if I was the first to point it out."
I never claimed it was the most important piece of evidence, it was just something to be considered in conjunction with the rest of the evidence against him.

"Overall, Squigs was one of the most active players in the game"
He just wasn't. That was a big part of my case. He said a lot in the early going, but as uclabb made pretty clear in the early pages, he wasn't actually furthering discussion at all. Then he got very quiet until just before the end of the phase, only stopping in to defend himself and post some reads that he admitted were very hedged.

"the case against him was rather weak. There were far better targets for a lynch (Chaqa, y2k and ILN come to mind) who had similarly weak cases against them and were far less significant losses in case of mislynch."
I hate the "far less significant losses" thing. I voted for my top scumread, and that was Squigs. I invited people to provide a better case, because I wasn't sure about Squigs myself, but nobody did. I still don't get the y2k case, I think ILN is a townie, albeit a poor one, and while I do suspect Chaqa and think he is now an excellent target for future killings, I suspected Squigs more at the time.

"you kept pushing for the Squigs lynch even after Squigs posted a great defense. So, I want to know: Why Squigs?"
I didn't find his defense particularly strong. I don't really know what else to say here. He was my top scumread, and it's unfortunate that I was wrong, but I don't think my logic getting there was inconsistent.

"It is worth noting that Squigs built two late cases after posting his defense which is an incredibly townie thing to do and no one moved their votes off him."
Mafia are going to do anything they can to prevent themselves from being lynched late game. The vote was close up until the end, and a large part of that was one of those late cases he made. While helpful, I don't see how those actions could be seen as town indicative without the benefit of hindsight.

@guak,

That's a wonderful question, and I agonized over that at the time. I made the wrong call. My thinking was basically that I was giving a really good shot at a tie if I moved my vote, and that would be awful. Squigs had just pulled ahead 4-3, and there was almost no interest in Chaqa at that point. While I had really cooled on Squigs as a suspect, I still considered him one to some degree, and moving off him would have left it osmething like 3-3-3-2 (or thereabouts), with little interest in my new target, Chaqa, and ample opportunities for the Mafia to tie it up.

I urged people to look at Chaqa because I was hoping that both krellin, ILN, and Squigs voters could move in that direction and thus get a safe majority. I came extremely close to moving my vote at the time -- not that you have any reason to believe that -- and I'm sick that I did not.

FWIW, I actually happen to agree with you about the people who were on at the end and didn't switch their votes. As I said earlier, I read up sequentially from where I left off, and I thought it was incredibly clear by the end that Squigs was town. I cried on the inside when I saw bo's post about my having been here.

It's frankly not a great answer, but it's the truth.

As for Squigs this time compared with last time -- last time he did tons of analyses and reads from the start, good ones. This time he mostly focused on unimportant stuff till right before he died, and that really freaked me out. Too much so, as it turned out.

My scum list (most to least)

Chaqa
ghug
ILN (slight)
krellin
uclabb

Neutral

Warden
y2k

Town (least to most)

PJM
bo_sox
Maniac
guak

Part of my scum reasoning: I'm getting very few, if any, scumreads, and that's weird. It's possible that everybody here is just amazing. It's also possible that I should look a lot harder at the people I know are among the best players on the site -- ghug and uclabb. uclabb seems kind of neutral, but the counting argument leads me to push him to *slight* scum. ghug actually doesn't seem so neutral. I pulled off the Chaqa power role argument with over an hour left to go. He didn't, and I just don't think there's any way he actually considers it a strong argument. In general I'm getting a slightly more scum vibe from him this time, and his behavior with the Squigs thing pushes him up the list for me. Admittedly, I probably look just as bad on that, but I happen to know I'm town.

And the other category that automatically becomes a lot more interesting are the crazy (krellin) and inactive (ILN) or both (Chaqa) players.

I could totally see y2k being scum too, idk. I'm getting pretty dang strong townreads on the townies I listed, so the good part is, I have a short list to focus on.

@semck (and everyone)- I think it's possible that this is more a personal pet peeve of mine than a scum tell, but I find the "I wanted to avoid a tie" argument extremely (EXTREMELY) lacking, especially when you were voting with over an hour left in the turn. How can you possibly justify this? I feel like you are more rational than that. Again, I want to stress everyone to not vote with any concern for a tie except maybe in the last 10 minutes or so. It's simply not in the mafia's interest to change their vote to force a tie, as that would expose 2 mafia, not just the one mafia they would ostensibly be trying to save (this is especially bad for the mafia with a SK and vig in the game), and they wouldn't even get a mislynch out of it. It just won't happen.

As far as the krellin claim, I really really hope you aren't a vanilla townie, krellin. The reason for this is that if you are, at some point down the road we are going to figure out that you aren't a power role, at which point we are going to essentially have to lynch you. This in itself would be not great but it would be ok (all it would do is move a mislynch back, which is bad as later lynches are more accurate, but it's not terrible), the main issue is that now there is more pressure on the power roles to reveal and less credibility for them when they do, not to mention the fact that if we start having townies fake claim then mafia have even more leeway to fake claim, as if they do and get proven to be lying, they could now claim they were just townies trying to avoid a mislynch, and that is unacceptable. So again, what is done is done, but please please please no one (else?) fake claim as town.

As far as reads go, I think ghug is most likely town. As I recall, no mafia member has ran point for a day 1 lynch in any of the previous games and, while ghug would probably be the person to do it if anyone (maybe me, too), I just don't think it is particularly likely, as being so vocal and aggressive day 1 is only inviting a lynch or at least a doc scan. I also go the opposite way with his hard headedness and loopy posts and things like that- they all read to me as townie.

I still think krellin is pretty likely scum (probably something like 50%) but I *think* that we still have to respect his claim, although I haven't yet thought of a solution for exactly how we will eventually resolve it. Does anyone have ideas? I don't want to just attack him all day again, wasting a day, just to force him to be more clear about his claim. We also obviously don't even want him to be more clear about his claim if it is the truth. However, I also think that every single mafia member would (or at least should) make fake claims to avoid being lynched, so if we always allow vague claims like this in theory we actually would never lynch mafia on day 1. One option is for the cop to scan him, I guess, but it seems to me like if he is telling the truth (which is the time when we want to be careful about forcing him to claim more clearly), it's in some sense a wasted scan as the mafia are very likely to kill him early in the game.

Anyway, I really need to go to sleep as I start working again in 4 hours, but here is my list from most to least scum:

My scum list (most to least)

krellin
y2k
bo_sox
semck
Chaqa
Warden
ghug
ILN
PJM
Maniac
guak

Shit - two down on D1, little unfair to lose Captain as well but I still stand by the need for the D1 lynch regardless.

Firstly, I'm backing off Krellin. Hindsight's a wonderful thing - I thought I saw him breadcrumbing a power role earlier on but ignored it as I thought I was being stupid, post claim I'm going to leave him alone for now unless something more scummy comes along. Not a free ride until we have more evidence but for now he's moved back into town land for me.

Secondly I'm now getting a far more scummy vibe from Chaqa, he made a switch on to Y2K for no real reason that I could see and this whole "I told you so" attitude afterwards is very lizardesque. Like he tried to just distance himself enough from the situation but not enough to try and stop a townie being killed.

@ Chaqa - Can you explain your reasoning for moving to Y2K, other than I think your comment was "ahh fuck it?"

I'm definitely coming more to your way of seeing things now, ucla. My thinking was that there was developing a real problem in that there were low numbers of votes on a large number of candidates, and quite a few people who weren't going to be here at the end. Increasing this entropy threatened to create a situation where the mildest coordination among a small number of people could swing the vote, either in a bad way or (my main concern) to a tie.

You seem to think that the Mafia would only want a tie if there were a bandwagon against one of their members. I guess that may be true, but I was assuming they might want one in any case, as it would keep the town very in the dark for an additional day. I suppose the joy of killing a townie might be greater than that, though.

Morning people, I have a few minutes.

@pj: I voted y2k because it was the only possible lynch I had any confidence in. I was sure Squigs was innocent, and pretty sure Krellin was even before his role claim, so with 10 minutes to go y2k seemed the best option.

As for my behavior, don't read too much into it. Just spicing things up.

Sorry to lose Squigs - whilst I didn't vote for him I had thought some of what he said was non-human indicative, and if my comments led others to vote for him, I share the blame for his demise. RIP old friend.

I am 100% convinced that krellin is non-human. We had him in our sights and he fooled us with a late role claim.

There is no power role on earth that would have led krellin to play the rest of the game the way he did.

The odds of the govt now surviving having lost Squigs and Captmeme are not good. Krellin is trying to fool the doc to save him which leaves me and the Vig exposed. We should shoot krellin tomorrow without fail.

Aside form that we should @@vote who we want the Vig to shoot, he has to get a round of early as he has little chance of being doc saved. We should also &&vote who we want the cop to scan.

My votes are @@vote Y2
&&vote Chaqa

Can we have no more discussions on WIFOM, lurkers and day 1 lynchs. When all said and done this is a team game and we have allowed krellin and others to divide the team. We must work together.

For the avoidance of doubt, although it should be obvious, no one should try and counter claim - it's a trap krellin has set. Do not fall into it.

Why waste a scan on me when you believe krellin to be fake-claiming? Seems to me that you're trying to target two people you know to be innocent, you dirty Argonian.

I'd like to urge the Vigilante to take a shot. We don't have time for holding - shoot someone you find suspicious, even if it's me. We can't pussy foot around.

also:

@@Maniac
&&ghug