Congratulations to shield, TheWizard, and DeltaAjaxNiner for sweeping the podium at EDC 2019!

Forum
A place to discuss topics/games with other webDiplomacy players.
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A_Tin_Can (2249 D)
19 Aug 15 UTC
Live game this Friday?
see inside!
8 replies
Open
Hamilton Brian (717 D (B))
19 Aug 15 UTC
Sources of Tension
An exploration of those positionings that test an alliance. Feel free to add your thoughts, views, observations, etc. If you shit though, clean up after yourself.
5 replies
Open
Ogion (4378 D)
14 Aug 15 UTC
Welcome back party!
Friends,

I've been away for the last six months, and I thought I'd throw myself a little welcome back bash.
30 replies
Open
ckroberts (3548 D)
05 Aug 15 UTC
The Mountain Game 4 rules discussion/sign up thread
The Mountain Game 4 will commence soon.
56 replies
Open
Rodgersd09 (100 D)
17 Aug 15 UTC
"A good games" was cancelled - Do any players know why?
Damn - I was enjoying it as well!
3 replies
Open
Constitutional Rights for Embryonic Americans?
In the GOP debate last Thursday, unsurprisingly, abortion was a point of discussion amongst candidates. Obviously they were all pro-life to some extent or another, but Mike Huckabee went so far as to say that abortion was already illegal, because unborn children have the rights to equal protection under the law and due process. Right from conception, they have constitutional rights, he argues.

Regardless of your position on abortion, is this a valid argument?
91 replies
Open
Jamiet99uk (202 D)
12 Aug 15 UTC
(+3)
Mafia
I'm getting sick of muting Mafia threads. Can someone launch a separate site for them or something?
44 replies
Open
ssorenn (3155 D (G))
14 Aug 15 UTC
(+1)
Changes to site policy--
With this gunboat tourney going on, I think there should be a change to a site policy. ----see inside---
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I'll also add that more complex models are usually harder to fit, so simplicity is beneficial on all levels. KISS and all that.
thorfi (1023 D)
17 Aug 15 UTC
I suspect the statistician's definition of simple is perhaps different to the programmer definition. :-)

Currently the thing just sums up count of NMRs, count of turns taken, count of CDs (including deleted), count of games, and then there's a straightforward formula from there. :-)

That's *very* simple...

It would actually probably be reasonably possible to put count or time limits on those queries. It's things like adding decay as turns get older that are potentially hard, as far as DBs go. But let's just go with you doing some real statistical analysis, then we can work out some combination of reasonably understandable and reasonably implementable after we know what we're working with. :-)

I mean, if it turns out that the prediction using the last 100 turns and/or last 10 games is just as good as going back to infinity, then we could just use "RR100/10" for everyone.
MrcsAurelius (3051 D (B))
17 Aug 15 UTC
Didnt read the thread, but how about taking over CDs earns you an elimination of your own CD at some point?
steephie22 (182 D (S))
17 Aug 15 UTC
No.
MrcsAurelius (3051 D (B))
17 Aug 15 UTC
Steephie: eloquent in his brevity.

Anyway, getting rid of CDs by taking over CDs is a kind of community service.. Judges do it all the time.
A_Tin_Can (2249 D)
17 Aug 15 UTC
(+1)
Yes, it's community service, but it doesn't indicate you're any more reliable. This is why it's not part of RR.

Whatever alternative RR system we come up with, the best way to improve you RR will always be to demonstrate that you're reliable.
A_Tin_Can (2249 D)
17 Aug 15 UTC
*your
steephie22 (182 D (S))
17 Aug 15 UTC
(+2)
If asked for it, I think taking over CDs is indeed a great thing to do. If you just join games I'm personally less positive about it; CDs mess with balance, definitely, but that balance is typically not restored with a replacement. In fact, the balance just changes a second time, after everyone adapted to the new situation. Now they have to adapt again.
steephie22 (182 D (S))
17 Aug 15 UTC
I only play private games these days anyway though, so I don't personally mind, just thoughts.

In summary, taking over a CD doesn't cancel out a CD.
CSteinhardt (9040 D (B))
17 Aug 15 UTC
(+2)
In my view, it's actually worse than that, because many live games get cancelled with a CD, which means they don't end up in the records. So I strongly suspect the proper RRs for some people are considerably worse than it seems.

Anyway, what I want as a user out of such a system is to be able to ensure that my games don't get ruined. From that point of view, as much as taking over a CD is a nice community service, it doesn't actually un-ruin games; it rather helps some games to finish that are already wrecked.

It's also important to understand that Diplomacy is a long-term commitment to a game, and so I'm not really interested in people's last 100 turns as much as their long-term behavior. For example, one of the other forum threads mentions that I recently started 50 gunboat games (thanks again, Valis!) By the end of 1901, I'd have cleared everything on my record except this current series. So, if I'm the sort of person who disappears for a week every month or so, you wouldn't know that from my RR, and yet I'd be very likely to NMR in your new full press game with 3 day deadlines. I'm also the sort of person who feels the need to apologize for my one resign in my profile, a live game that never actually got started, so that probably explains how I feel on the subject.

I can think of one solution which would be easy to program from the current code: at the moment, I can see the details of my RR on my own profile, including which games were involved, but nobody else can. Making that information public would allow a user to argue that they've been better recently, and then people inviting them to games could make up their own minds about whether they agree. Since that information already has code to pull out of the database, it would just be a question of changing one of the flags in the PHP front end.

One other alternative, which is a few lines of code but would also carry good information, would be "Date of late NMR". Again, the idea would be that the RR reflects your entire history, but users have the ability to argue that it should be discounted because of recent good behavior and everybody can make their own decisions, which is kinda how RR is currently being used anyway.
Hellenic Riot (1619 D (G))
17 Aug 15 UTC
@CSteinhardt

NMRs or CDs in cancelled games still count toward your RR.
thorfi (1023 D)
17 Aug 15 UTC
@CSteinhardt The thing is - we actually don't know, yet, without some real statistical analysis (which @bas has kindly volunteered to do yay!), whether we require "all time data" to make good predictions about reliability, or whether "last 100 turns" (or some other number, or a time factor instead/as well as last N turns/games) pretty much yields the same data. And yeah, in either case also whether we need to weight for turn length, or weight vs age of data, or some other things.

We can argue about it theoretically all we like, but I want to see what an actual statistician thinks is a good predictive model based on the data. :-)

Also, making RR data public may be slightly trickier than you think - it includes all games, including ongoing anonymous ones. Public profile data needs to avoid listing anonymous games.
ag7433 (1987 D (S))
18 Aug 15 UTC
(+1)
I had 4 CD's in Christmas break of 2009 during a stretch I had no choice - yet instead of the one instance (like it was), it's multiplied by four. And they do not fade over time. Still in 2015 it's stating how unreliable I am.

At least the players that expect to have zero issues in their life can play together without worry.
CSteinhardt (9040 D (B))
18 Aug 15 UTC
@thorfi: Good point on the second one. So, then I think my proposed solution is to keep RR, but also to add a second piece of information: date of last NMR/CD. This won't cause problems with breaking anonymous games, but it would allow somebody to make the case that they had a lot of NMRs in the past, but haven't done that in the last two years, etc.
thorfi (1023 D)
18 Aug 15 UTC
Hrm, yeah. We would need to round the date off, maybe "n days ago" (rounded up, with a floor of "within the last 2 days"), would be sufficient to ensure that datum can't be used to de-anonymise.
thorfi (1023 D)
18 Aug 15 UTC
Or just "n weeks ago" rounded up, would probably be sufficient. I mean, nobody's going to viably argue "Hey, I NMRed a whole 6 days ago, let me in!" vs "I NMRed yesterday, let me in!" :-)


106 replies
orathaic (1009 D (B))
15 Aug 15 UTC
sex slavery in IS
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/sex-slavery-adopted-and-codified-by-islamic-state-1.2317309
11 replies
Open
2ndWhiteLine (3375 D (B))
12 Aug 15 UTC
(+4)
2015 Gunboat Tournament
See inside.
250 replies
Open
DeathLlama8 (524 D)
15 Aug 15 UTC
What do people use to adjudicate F2F games without a board?
Fairly self-explanatory, really. Backstabbr doesn't really work for me.
15 replies
Open
Eadan (454 D)
15 Aug 15 UTC
We need someone to step in as Egypt
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=164461#votebar
1 reply
Open
King Mischief (108 D)
15 Aug 15 UTC
world take over-4
come join world take over-4. I'm some what new to the game so, it could be easy $$$.
3 replies
Open
Stubie (1817 D)
14 Aug 15 UTC
Cutting Convoys
Is it possible to stop a supported convoy (where the fleet convoying is supported) with a supported attack of equal support, thus not dislodging the convoying fleet?
10 replies
Open
Lebosfc17 (20 D X)
14 Aug 15 UTC
To The Mods
Does anybody remember DC35?
17 replies
Open
Fluminator (496 D)
14 Aug 15 UTC
I need help with a research paper!
It's due tomorrow night and I have to do a 12-15 page paper on how the internet of things and the third industrial revolution will affect society and more importantly the work force and employment.

I'm up to around 10 pages and I have no idea what to write for the last 2.
And no, increasing the font size of each period isn't allowed.
41 replies
Open
4-8-15-16-23-42 (339 D)
14 Aug 15 UTC
Question- Help
See below.
16 replies
Open
general (100 D)
13 Aug 15 UTC
Quick live game
Join my quick live game: http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=165983.

Haven't played in years and want to get back into it :)
1 reply
Open
orathaic (1009 D (B))
13 Aug 15 UTC
Messed up, two 13 year olds tired as adults
m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7979942?cps=gravity_5540_1138476008340655834

So teenagers brains are different from adult brains; that is a reason why we don't let them drink or drive... The frontal lobe which controls will-power and executive function ( ie decision making ) continues developing until about 25.
32 replies
Open
orathaic (1009 D (B))
11 Aug 15 UTC
Risk taking
http://youtu.be/vBX-KulgJ1o
Great video, but the first thing i think of is relationships, (and given that i was recently dumped, this is no surprise) Naturally you could also apply this to diplomacy; but the probabilities get a little messed up, and in Dip not taking a bet means taking a different course, which may also be risky.
14 replies
Open
orathaic (1009 D (B))
10 Aug 15 UTC
Snowden Interview
Recent interview with German tv, apparently not shown in the US and not available on youtube?? m.liveleak.com/view?i=f93_1390833151

He makes some interesting points...
49 replies
Open
fulhamish (4134 D)
12 Aug 15 UTC
Climate change - another feedback loop
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/08/150805140254.htm

Time to recalibrate those models..........................again
30 replies
Open
Jamiet99uk (202 D)
13 Aug 15 UTC
(+4)
The death of the republic
http://diprepublic.net/?reqp=1&reqr=

Oh no. How sad.
9 replies
Open
Tru Ninja (1016 D (S))
05 Aug 15 UTC
ESPN Fantasy Football Signups
For those that will play only ESPN league, post interest here. List your preferred draft day (I prefer late preseason Saturday or Sunday around 1 p.m. Central Time

1. Tru Ninja (Sat Aug 29th or Sun Aug 30th)
81 replies
Open
Thucydides (869 D (B))
04 Aug 15 UTC
GRE scores
What's a good score? Share your score too, if you feel comfortable. I just took the test this morning
65 replies
Open
alulahello (0 D X)
12 Aug 15 UTC
(+2)
halloween costumes 2015
I know, 3 months early blahblah. But I'm bored and I want to talk about Halloween.
Some people are into crazy Costumes and go all out to make them. Brainstrom ideas for costumes and how to make/obtain them. What are you thinking of going as?
1 reply
Open
goldfinger0303 (3200 D)
11 Aug 15 UTC
Opposite Gender Friends leads to Lower Academic Performance
Interesting paper I'm reading right now. Not completely done with it, but its methodology seems sound.

http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/app.20140030
37 replies
Open
ssorenn (3155 D (G))
12 Aug 15 UTC
(+2)
this is interesting--watch the video
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2015/08/10/everyone-fails-to-ride-this-bike-you-would-too-this-is-what-it-tells-us-about-the-brain/
6 replies
Open
P13ANATOR (100 D)
12 Aug 15 UTC
Hi I am new, quick question
I am starting a game with some friends, can you play with less than 7 people? If so, is anything different compared to a full game? Thanks :-)
8 replies
Open
ND (879 D)
20 Jul 15 UTC
(+12)
MX: All Star Game
See inside for details
5191 replies
Open
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