Well, first, there must be other nations on the board at the time, no? Or does Russia own austria and turkey already? If thatis the case, no such alliance comes about.

Russia has limited projection power in the west/north until the Balkans is resolved.
They have little chance to do ANYTHING in the north, if there is a English/German alliance vs them. They can hardly stop England alone, if Germany styas out of the fight there, but if England agrees to give Germany sweden, and they take STP and norway, what can Russia do? Nothing.

This gives Germany 6 or 7 SCs, but for your example we will say 6 (saying france has Holland0.

They need but 3 to hold the line vs France, Giving them 3 to fight russia, or maybe 2 (if they decide to garrison sweden or denmark, but they can be arranged where Engaldn puts a fleet in barents sea to offer support to STP)

So, now you have Russia forced to garrison Moscow, livonia and moscow just to stay EVEN vs Germany/England, and England/Germany have 6 units to throw against france.

If Russia is forced to do this, they are dead. They will get gobbled up by Turkey or Austria in the south.

for me, when I play Russia, If I can hold onto STP in the north, until 1904 9even if it means helping Germany vs England) I am happy.

If I can not resolve the issue in the south by then, then it is probably game over for me anyways.