Some added thoughts on the consequences of the above.

(1) The increased propensity of Germany to move east instead of west early naturally means that Sweden is more likely to be bounced in A01. The less obvious extension is that Austria and/or Turkey are more likely to seek to deny Russia Rumania in A01 or otherwise harass or attack Russia throughout 1901, knowing that the Russian will already be weak. The increased pressure on Rumania sends Russia into a downward spiral - being less likely to get Rumania, Russia needs Sweden even more than before, and is less likely to forgo Sweden for Baltic Sea. But the less likely it is that Russia will go to Baltic Sea, the more likely it is that Germany will bounce Sweden in the first place. And the more likely it is that Germany will bounce Sweden, the more likely it is that Austria/Turkey will set their sights on Rumania, and the more likely Russia will try for Sweden, making Germany more likely to bounce.

(2) The net result of these changes is a loss for England. Bouncing Sweden is rightfully normally seen as a boon for England, arguably more than it is for Germany, in full press. In gunboat, it's still a boon, as Scandinavia is still fairly safe in the beginning years; but recalling that the higher chance of a bounce in Sweden ultimately originates from an increased propensity for at least Franco-German peace if not alliance, it's hard to say that England comes out on top, especially as France often has the advantage against England in the early game, 1-on-1.

(3) Italy gets shafted even harder than in the classic game. Russia's impotence already makes Italy's life much harder than it is in full press, which is to say, much harder than very hard. Adding to that that the primary cause of Russian impotence is Germany making peace with France to attack Russia, Italy really looks bad. This should empower Austria and Turkey, but often only benefits Turkey.

(4) This still doesn't quite explain to me why Austria does relatively poorly and Turkey dominates. I suspect Austrian gunboat strategy needs serious revision, because on paper I'm still not seeing exactly how Austria shouldn't be steamrolling through the Balkans by 1903.

Is it possible that Germany is more likely to go north against England?

Also, regarding Austria, maybe it is because once Russia and England are dead and if Germany and France are still working together, Austria becomes Germany's next target. Maybe Vaft's or Tru Ninja's stats could bear this out (games where Austria has died and Germany has done well).

I'd say that Germany is probably more likely to go north into Scandinavia, certainly, and eventually against England. Germany ends up with Sweden a lot more often in gunboats than full press, and the crucial thing is that it isn't required to ally with England to pull it off. (It isn't in full press, either, but in gunboat, Russia can't turn to England and go "Hey, that Kraut bastard is being greedy and not giving me my fair share. Want it?" and then bam, England is diving into Baltic and Denmark and you're dead.) So that gives Germany a much bigger foothold in Scandinavia than it already had, and once Moscow and Warsaw fall (usually only a few years after Sweden), Germany can field 3-4 fleets and attack into St. Petersburg without leaving the rest of itself vulnerable to someone else. That's a major headache for England at least if not an existential threat.

And yeah, that would certainly be one nasty fate Austria could reach. This usually happens when Italy joins Russia in the loser's circle, and you have an Austro-Turkish alliance meeting a Franco-German one - Austria gets cut out and FGT 3-way draw. (The FGT 3-way, for reference, is the most common 3-way draw in both full press and gunboat.) But it seems to me as though Austria shouldn't be at that point. I feel like Austria actually should be *winning* the war with Turkey for the Balkans, perhaps with Italy's help, and that the 2v2 that we should be seeing more is FG v AI, not FG v AT. (In those circumstances it would probably be Italy getting the shaft, maybe even Germany, certainly not Austria [or France].) At a minimum Austria shouldn't be dying so often!

I don't play many gunboat games, so I'm not sure.

It seems that England and France are more likely to start fighting in gunboats compared to full press, so that leaves England out of the picture. But then surely Germany could turn westwards and try to take advantage of England-France's struggle. This way Germany can take a dominant position in the west, while simply bouncing/taking Sweden will do Russia a lot of hurt (as you showed earlier), and stall and attempted Russian invasion into Germany.

Is Italy more likely to stab Austria in a gunboat? Or maybe Turkey benefits from Russia weakness (lack of competition in the Black Sea) than Austria does. How often does Russia move to Galicia in a gunboat?

I agree re: England/France fighting. In a gunboat it pretty much becomes entirely to France's advantage to take England on, since Germany is more likely to leave France alone and Italy is even less likely to bother France without real help. England has three SCs that are surprisingly easy to get (well, surprising when you consider England's reputation as an invincible defensive power and the reality that... well... it isn't), and controlling England before Germany wraps up in the east gives France the chance to seize the North Sea and with it decisive momentum into Germany and Scandinavia.

The key, in my experience, is that it seems that Germany usually wraps up Scandinavia/Russia about the same time that France wraps up England. If one of them beats the other one in that race, they end up being able to take and control the North Sea, push into the other's new expansions (England if Germany wins, Scandinavia if France wins), outflank the other one and win, usually soloing or getting close in the process. But it's almost uncanny how often France and Germany get there simultaneously and just decide to continue into Italy and Austria, respectively, instead of fighting each other.

As for the southeastern situation: I took a look at Vaft's stats here. For all gunboat openings ignoring CDs which have been played 10+ times, Russia moved to Galicia in over 85% of games. But seeing as it moves to Black Sea in over 87%, the story isn't clear through S01. What I suspect normally happens, though, is that Russia ends up either giving up the Black Sea in A01 or giving up Rumania, both the first step in a successful Turkish war against Russia. For whatever reason Austria can't capitalize, or helps Turkey along (which is frankly suicidal). Italy only plays what I would consider a hostile-to-Austria opening (basically Obrieni or Austrian Attack) 37% of the time, so it can't *always* be Italy's fault, though for a fair number of times it is. I'm not sure what happens the rest of the time, though...

If you want my thoughts on Austria in gunboats, there are many factors that keep Austria from exploding. But the major one is its central location, meaning that any expansion leaves you vulnerable. Austria actually does really well in the early game unless Italy attacks, which is not TOO common. Russia ALWAYS opens the same way. Always. It's the standard Ukraine opening with War-Gal and it's so easy to defend against. I've written a long review of the standard Russian opening in an EOG that I'll post when that game is over, so I won't repeat all of it here.

So unless Italy attacks, Austria has a safe, calm, strong position, especially since most Austrians do the gambit in gunboats. The problem is expansion.

Austria has four targets. Turkey, Germany, Russia and Italy. I'll consider Germany, Russia and Italy his potential allies - sure, there are freak gunboats where Austria and Turkey cooperate, but it's extremely rare.

Austria will want to take out Turkey quickly. But Austria can't build fleets, because it will make Italy freak out, and looking at it long-term, those fleets are useless for the AI alliance since they can't effectively navigate the Mediterranean without communication with Italy. So Austria must wait patiently for Italy to move into position, something that can take a full year of awkward bounces. During this time, Russia is easy to hold off. He's either busy with Germany or stuck with a solid Austrian defense. But when Turkey is finally invaded and Italy and Austria have shared their spoils, SO MUCH TIME has passed that the north is already settled. Usually, we see a strong FG alliance raping Russia, entering the Mediterranean, and Austria has nowhere to go. He can't attack Russia, it will benefit Germany too much. He can't attack Italy, it will benefit France too much, and Germany can hold down Germany proper with no effort at all.

So, you want to avoid that situation? Attack Germany early! But wait, if you haven't taken out Turkey, that means a Juggernaut can form and break through with all of your units committed to the northern front. And Italy can easily stab you if there is no Juggernaut and partner up with Turkey for quicker rewards.

Attack Russia? Sure, that's the easiest route. But you run the risk of expanding TOO much, Italy will feel left out stuck in a slow, hard war against Turkey, and may stab you.

Remember kids, Italy ALWAYS HAS AN ADVANTAGE OVER AUSTRIA. Why? Italy has fleets. Fleets can surround you, tying up all your units in defense, reducing all your mobility. Fleets are flexible and deadly.

So attack Italy! And if you look at the statistics I've produced for winning SCs:

http://draugnar.com/VaftStats/scwin/gunboats/index.html#Austria

Italy is almost always a part of the Austrian win. I'd say that an Austrian going for the win and not playing for a draw with competent players needs to stab Italy. Without the ability to push fleets out, Austria can never expand beyond 10 centres. But when? If you do it early, Turkey is still strong and can take advantage of the situation and smash you. If you do it late, Italy will already have grown and be even harder to deal with, and France can take advantage of the situation. I'd say that this is the key timing for Austria.

There are so many other scenarios. Since Austria is surrounded by four countries, there are so many different variations. I've only talked about the general, most common situations here, but what if RT go to war? What if Italy moves on France? What if GE team up? What if FE team up? What if Germany gives Russia Sweden? So much can happen, and everything reverberates through Austria. Just like the rectum is the focal point of the human body, Austria is the central knot of Europe. Austria is the anus of Diplomacy. That's why it's so fun to play with Austria, as we faggots know, so much can happen. But this was all about analysing the most common situations.

Lol vaft, I do like the austria/anus comparison.

Ome small thing, invading Italy as Austria has the same problems as invading Germany, it leaves you completely open to RT, and worse because by the time you can build.fleets to take thr Med, Turkey will already have at the very least 2 or 3 fleets. But stats don't lie (well, not outright), how often do Russia and Turkey fight. Also, is it possible to know when those Italian centres were taken in the Austrian wins, did Austria stab Italy at the very start? And from who (maybe France or Turkey took them).

Also I guess it is considered, at least in full press, a bit stupid for Austria to attack Germay.

"Italy is almost always a part of the Austrian win."

This is a virtual certainty. It's also a virtual certainty that Austria will do better if Italy does not attack. The logical conclusion, then, is for Italy to ALWAYS attack Austria in gunboat to automatically eliminate a solo threat down the road. A five or six center Austria is very hard to dislodge and will almost certainly take a combined effort from two or more countries to eliminate. A six or seven center Austria, though, is similarly difficult for the Austrian player to expand, as he runs into formidable barriers in the Aegean, Galicia/Ukraine, and the Adriatic/Tyrolia. I've had several games where I've controlled all of the Balkans, only to be stifled when trying to take Tyrolia/Ukraine/Aegean to finish off another country. The lack of fleets is the real mitigating factor, which is the point which I think can really stress an I/A alliance, both in gunboat and full press.

I don't know what the stats say about this, but speaking from experience, I've done better as Italy when I attack Austria early and done better as Austria when Italy does not attack early. I think it speaks measures about Austria's shittiness that lowly Italy can exert so much control in the early game, especially when there is essentially only ONE set of opening moves that Italy can use to neutralize Austrian expansion. Russian/Turkish openings can be assumed and easily countered, but it's the move to Tyrolia/Venice that really fucks Austria. For Italy, then, its SO DAMN EASY TO NEUTRALIZE AUSTRIA. Austria, especially in gunboat, needs to take a leap of faith in the early game that Italy decides, for whatever stupid reason, to Lepanto and not move north. This is why I feel that the Italian northern opening should be automatic in gunboat for Italy.

For reference, this is almost always what I do as Austria in gunboat. I'm going to assume the nice circumstance where Italy doesn't attack.

S01: Southern Hedgehog
A01: Vienna -> Galicia, Trieste -> Albania, Serbia -> Bulgaria (!)

The key part is that most of the time, if Austria doesn't move to Albania in S01, Turkey will go for Greece in the fall. You punish him for it by isolating that army in Greece while getting to Albania in the fall. Build army Budapest.

S01: Budapest support Vienna to Galicia, Serbia support Albania to Greece

At this point, you are probably in Galicia. There's no guarantee, of course, and it's not rare for Russia to try to run a Juggernaut in S02, but considering that this requires Russia to use its (likely) one build on an army Warsaw to use against Austria, and requires a pliable Turkey, those don't combine often enough to make Austrian ownership of Galicia after S02 here improbable.

And unless Turkey is crafty and supports himself out of Greece to Bulgaria, you're in Greece and Turkey is down an army. Sometimes Turkey has F AES, A Bul; rarely does it have the above and F BLS; and it's not uncommon to see just A Bul, the result of bounces in Black Sea and Eastern Mediterranean. If you see that last one, Bulgaria's yours. Regardless, you've got a decent shot at Rumania.

So that's 2 builds in W02. Russia's not getting anywhere on you, Turkey's stuck forever, Italy is probably stuck at four and having trouble getting into Turkey. At this juncture you should squeeze out that crucial second fleet. Couple it with A Budapest so that Italy doesn't freak as much; if Italy hasn't attacked you yet and he's not crusading by now, he's probably switching to attack France. Seeing F Tri/A Vie will make him switch to attack you. A Bud has plausible use against Rumania, and doesn't look like a likely candidate to go to Trieste and attack Venice. A Vie has much less force projection east - and the subtlety behind the fact that it is physically located further west will affect Italian players, even though it's equidistant from Venice compared to Budapest. I know that sounds silly, but it really does. Build A Bud and Italy is much more likely to see F Tri as anti-Turkish; build A Vie and it suddenly looks like Vie -> Tri -> ADS is your game plan. So get your second fleet here, let Italy break off to fight France, and slide your fleets over to KO Turkey.

Going off of the timing comment, I'd say as a general rule that you should use your build from Bulgaria as an anti-Turkish fleet. If you've got Bulgaria and Russia hasn't gone full retard, then Turkey's at 3 units, bottled up in Anatolia, waiting for two coordinated Mediterranean fleets to annihilate its position. You've got one such fleet already, likely in Greece or Aegean Sea. Build the second and go to town.

As for the north - you probably want to get to Russia first, simply because it's such bait for Germany or even England in an E-F, and it's easier to hold from the north than Germany. Plus, once you get Sevastopol, you can backdoor into Armenia and finish off Turkey if its defense is particularly tenacious. The builds from Russia can go toward getting Germany. And once you're in Germany, you've got the win - Italy should not be able to challenge you and the builds from Berlin and Munich coupled with units moving west from finally having KOed Turkey are ready to push into the decisive centers.

Some variations:
*RT war. Great! Hit them both. If they're fighting, take advantage of the added entanglement.
*FI war. Great! You'll have a tougher time with Turkey if there's not also an RT war (though these seem to go hand-in-hand for some reason), but you can hold them off long enough to stalemate them out and get one or the other to switch sides - usually Turkey stabbing Russia, because Turkey's got to expand quick to have a chance to win, and Russia has a chance of expanding elsewhere with an ART stalemate in the south. If FI and RT fight, you have no excuse for not succeeding.
*GE team up. Bad news is, your shot at a win is really iffy. There will be an EG stab, but the question is whether you can capitalize enough to get Berlin, Munich, Warsaw AND Moscow. Get them all and you're golden, miss any and you've lost your solo. Good news is that you won't be facing a Juggernaut, and a GE team up probably means Turkey hits Russia, giving you that sweet RT war from before.
*EF alliance. Russia still gets ripped in the north, just not as quickly, but Russia might divert troops to Germany instead of you, so that's a plus. FI war happens, so that's questionably good or bad, see its section.
*Russia gets Sweden. If Russia gets Rumania then this is probably irrelevant because Russia usually puts a second 01 build in St. Petersburg. If it doesn't, you bitch at Germany and grit your teeth, but carry on as planned because a 5-center Russia in 02 still isn't a big deal.

And 2WL with the boom. I pretty much concur 100% for Italy. The question is how to contain Turkey in a gunboat when Russia is so impotent.

^which goes back to Benelux. See? That shit's important.

Here's my problem with the Obriani opening. As with all fully committal "to the death!" openings, you're acting on 0 information. I repeat, null, nada. Will anyone limit Russia? Will Austria do something stupid? I'm happy to produce statistics, but I'll never use them as my only basis for play. I approach gunboats like a poker player, I base my decisions on gathering information and combining it with statistical knowledge and experience.

The Obriani in a gunboat is extremely anti-Austrian. There's no way to convey "I'm going to Munich", Austria must assume aggression and retaliate. Turkey will cheer, Russia will still cry over drawing Russia, France will smile a big wolf grin. Why? You force Austria into a defensive mode, removing the main power of Austria - the great stabiliser. You must now quickly take as much of Austria as possible before Turkey can, because the Italian-Turkish alliance is almost as impossible as the Austro-Turkish one. Russia can be ignored in this equation, Russia is a mess in gunboats. And this is the central problem with the Obriani. If Turkey takes Greece because Austria is distracted, you're fucked. If Russia gets into Galicia because Austria is distracted, it's a great way to start a Juggernaut, or rather a Turkernaut, since Russia is a mess and only becomes the weak second partner.

If you open Obriani:

France will have nothing to worry about and will invade England even faster or come around to hit you.
Turkey will usually get more of Austria.
Germany usually won't do a single thing, but is weaker if Russia gets stronger, which is a possibility.
Austria will usually suicide into you unless he can secure an alliance with Russia or involvement from Germany.

You're setting the course for the east in one single move, without knowing anything about the players and intentions around you. To go back to my anus analogy, you're fucking Europe up the ass. And I don't mean that just figuratively or humourously.

If I want to invade Austria, I'll do it with a convoy into Albania or by taking Greece with my fleets. "Why? Austria is already strong?" Yes, he is. But strong Austria = weak Turkey. You have a much better shot at taking most of Austria if you wait. And you also have a ton of information about the other players. It's not just a blind shot hoping for luck.