I would take ALB at all costs.

Alb should be coloured red, as Austria went there in S01 - this was a continuation of a FTF game, and we took shortcuts setting it up on webdip, so Alb was incorrectly left uncoloured :)

where did you find this game?

Haven't worked it out but it looks like you can probably move in such a way that if you guess wrong, turkey gets an extra center not Germany. If that's the case I would play on

It is currently the Fall, correct?

That's correct, yes.

The chance of soloing is almost zero, since I see no way to take SEV. I don't like cutting people out of the draw for no reason, so I would probably draw and a hostile 2 way isn't of interest to me. If you wanted it, though, I don't think it would be that hard:

BOH-GAL
ARM-SEV
BUD sh RUM
CON-BS
AEG-BUL
TRI-SER

The guarantees RUM. It may lose BOH, but you don't need that for the stalemate. The only way to lose ARM is by taking BS, so that seems fine. Should force the 2way pretty quick.

Please feel free to spot the hole in my analysis.

Oh, that's not quite right. UKR can support SEV-RUM and GAL can break Bud's support. That would leave SEV open and Germany in RUM.

I suppose at that point you'd just go for the 3 way and hope you could still work with Turkey if Germany no longer wanted it.

Also, Bla C Sev-Ank is a killer.

If you go for the 2-way as Italy here, you have to be very confident. The difference between a 2-way and a 3-way is 1/2-1/3=1/6 of the points/GR/credit, a difference between a 3-way and a loss is 1/3. So you have to be at least 66% confident in the 2-way to make it worth your while.

I haven't though about it hard, but I'd be very tempted to go for the draw button here. You don't have a stalemate line as long as Bla is around.

Good point. Convoy is a real possibility.

Italy really had no reason to continue this game.

A different question: why didn't Germany remove his draw vote and solo?

Because Turkey can easily throw the game to Italy too.

This game looks like a perfect example of why two-way draws are so rare in winner-takes-all games. Turkey did a great job positioning himself exactly where it matters, around Sev and Bla.

I think a German solo is possible only if relations between Italy and Turkey have completely broken down. I don't think G can force it on their own.

(If Germany removed their draw vote, that is)

Well, that's what it really comes down to. Is Turkey really so pissed at Italy that he'd truly throw the game to Germany? Germany risked nothing by trying.

Yeah, I would take the 3WD, either as Germany or Italy. I don't see a way for Italy to keep Rum in a guaranteed way, Turkey and Germany can definitely force it.

And Germany can't just stab Turkey for the solo, can't get both Ankara and Rum.

Germany *could*, I think, have stabbed for the 2WD with:

Kie-Ber
Sil-War
Pru S Sil-War
Mos S Sev H
Gal-Ukr
Sev S Gal-Ukr

But question: Is this a public draw vote game as per WebDip? Because presumably if Germany pulls down their draw vote, Turkey will flip again and can defend against the above moves. And trying to sell Italy on "don't press draw yet, I'm going to stab Turkey" is... just going to get Italy to flip Turkey on you, presumably.

If it wasn't public draw vote, and I was playing Germany, I'd definitely be stabbing for the 2WD.

P.S.: And yes, I don't see a way for Germany to force a solo either, without Turkish cooperation.

For me it all depends on the actual diplomacy part of the game. As Germany, I might be able to get the solo, but as Italy, I feel good enough trying to convince Turkey Germany was bullshitting him, and wanting the 2 way all along. Say that you would rather solo, because Germany won't commit to the solo line.

even a single Turkey troop moving back in a little cover could be good. Still ITaly is in a tough position. I'd go for it though

@thorfi yes it was public draw votes.

Valis: Yeah, in that case I'd be putting in the above orders and just crossing my fingers that Italy didn't click draw. :-) Which as Italy I'd be clicking draw, so.

Oh, that said, it also depends on the scoring system, if any. For WebDip's scoring, I'd be trying for the 2WD over the 3WD. For a "non scored" game, I'd just take the draw.

@thorfi yes webDip scoring.

@thorfi: i wouldn't care about the 'scores' - webdip points, 100 , at the end of the day, aren't as important. A draw is just a draw, a solo is the aim of the game.

I almost think i'd prefer a ppsc draw, with wta solo... But for me i've no reason to prefer a 2-way draw over a 3-way.

Orathaic: I've been a gamer too long. MOAR POINTS R BETTER. Not that they mean anything, of course - it's not like 1 is actually exchangeable for anything. :-)

It's also clear that not everyone agrees with that when it comes to playing out endgame choices, and fair enough too.

Plus of course, reputation matters somewhat, if you want to get metagamey about it, sometimes there are good reasons to take a draw rather than go for a solo.

@thorfi stop killing the site pls, play to win the game

*runs away to click draw in every game he's playing*

Destroying the site means I win, right? Wait, this isn't nomic? Dangit.

*unclicks draw, promises to play as if every game is Lusthog...* Wait, I already do that, usually. Ah well. :-)

Most of the comments *waggles eyebrows at thorfi* and the game itself are excellent food for thought. I repeat, a sister site, a webdipwiki, with sections to which such could be transferred/added would be brilliant (cf my comments ref 'sticky' threads - also solved by this).

I confess I play the ratings game as well, so take/play for a draw if I don't think I can win. I can't see that that's wrong. But, @valis2501, it's rare for people to do otherwise so relax!#

I sticky thread for the ratings system and play times would also be a good home for my feelings about replacements. I've gone into some games simply because I can't stand to see someone get an easy win, but my rating suffers for it most times.

God, I hope you can unpick the sense out of that last para... It's already 29c at 9 am.

Don't worry Chumbles, I don't take anything you say seriously anyways ^.^

Hah, check my win % vs yours! Valis ;¬)

yeah...PPSC Ancient Med gunboats...https://tinyurl.com/mcw82f7

"play to win the game" says the guy who mutes neighbouring countries ;-)

Thanks ATC and Capt for a fascinating end game. I'd been wanting to explore whether a rational low-risk two way draw was possible, and this game offered a great way to test it out. Two ways often come about through one person carebearing (as witnessed in the recent ODC), but can it be done without carebearing? I guess we still don't know.

The public draw votes mattered a great deal. Had the vote not been public, I would have withdrawn a while ago. But since Italy had grabbed Iberia I wanted to make sure Capt was on my side and needed to keep it up. Had Italy not drawn this turn, I would have cancelled my vote right now.

It's funny how these last turns seemed to hinge on Gal. Both Italy and Germany felt that they needed Gal to be able to properly defend against anothers solo. Which one has the better claim to that?

yes, I was completely serious when I said thorfi is killing the site. I totally don't feel like we're gonna have to start adding retarded "/s" to shit.

I'm surprised nobody seems to think Italy can solo. G/T have a temporary advantage, but because Italy can indefinitely hold Bohemia there is no long term line that can be held. If Italy manages to get units into Rum, Bla, and Arm, Ukraine has to support hold Sevastopol, meaning that Rum, Bud, Vie S Boh-Gal takes Gal and the next phase Italy can use Gal to cut Ukr while entering Bla, Arm S Rum-Sev and Bud-Rum to secure the 18th.

If Turkey is forced to disband Bla this phase, I believe Italy has the solo. Even if not, it's a bit riskier but if Italy can hold off the German solo threat for a short time he will inevitably win.

GAL is more important for G/T to have. If Italy has Galicia, say, with the Vienna army which is replaced with Trieste, then it can be sacrificed to cut UKR which allows SEV to be taken and forever held and that gives 18.

If G/T own GAL, at best they can threaten RUM, but not effectively (there is only one set of moves that guarantees RUM for G/T, and it involves taking it with BLA, and it is a very silly moveset that doesn't allow for a German solo). In addition, even owning GAL does not allow the conquest of Bohemia, as MUN/SIL/GAL cannot overtake VIE/TYR/BOH.

The claim "I need this space to prevent an opposing solo" goes to G/T

damn, ninja'd by the ninja master

TM - If Italy had kept Gal in the Spring the solo would have been inevitable for the same reason as above - there is no line that can be held against him because he has indefinite control of Bohemia.

Great to hear we're thinking along the same lines, Valis :)

And a great hattip to Capt, who was able to get a threeway draw in this. His diplomacy was fantastic, and - as far as I could tell - he kept on having great relations with both Italy and Germany throughout. He got an optimal outcome with only minimal leverage - well done!

Also, @Chumbles - I think a wiki would be a great addition to the site. I'll lobby ATC to add one :)

You can meta-game or not. Though it is hard to game without any meta-, i play the game for itself, and the best way if measuring how each individual game turns out is the solo%. But if you always risk losing for a solo, you give up more solos to opponents, and when it is not possible to solo (in turkey's position here) a draw is preferable.

So even ignoring GR / 1 (Daggers/Dippers?) you inherently bias the play by how you think about the game.

I would never deliberately exclude Turkey from the draw, unless i felt the Turkish player didn't deserve a place. If i had been their neighbour all game and they had really worked hard to get me to eliminate them. Made annoying moves which hurts themselves as much as me, provided angry press which left me hating them. Yeah if there every action seemed to be aimed at ruining my game, without helping them win; i would take pleasure in removing them - perhaps even to the point of throwing the game.

Because, as much as this game is about solos, it is also supposed to be fun. And i would place the fun i'm having above GR / Daggers any day!

@Valis, loved the link. Shame you're one of those who somehow believes that winning a variant is either easy or substandard. Or is that because I won that Blind Dip game (ratingless) we were in? But I agree with you ref. Galicia; absolutely a key space - a bit like the central 4 squares in chess, it commands so much space/

I don't think Valis was implying soloing on any front is easy. Just that (a) variants, (b) gunboat and (c) PPSC are all substandard by comparison of full-press classic WTA.

My impression, for what its worth, is that variants aren't as heavily play-tested prior to their release, gunboat takes away an aspect that is critical to the original game (I can see the merit to gunboat because it does add a different dimension and showcases a player's tactical warfare skill) and PPCS has a dimension that makes having a defeat still taste like a victory.

Gunboat is ALL about learning to communicate without words. Which makes it a completely different game, full of subtlty not merely indicated by tactical skill, but also deep understanding of what moves make sense and what intention your enemies are trying to convey...