Old Forum - webDiplomacy

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scallopz_rule (100

)
23 Jun 09 UTC

So I'm listening to Charlie Parker,

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11730
Bird of Paradise came on.
Join.

1 reply

Open

WhiteSammy (132

)
23 Jun 09 UTC

Somewhat Old School Humor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lF4qii8S3gw

Victor Borge was a comedian and conductor(musical) who seldom used vulgar language and still managed to make people laugh

2 replies

Open

jodabomb24 (100

)
23 Jun 09 UTC

PLEASE UNPAUSE THIS GAME!!!

We need this game unpaused. Everyone has voted except this one person, and he hasn't been on in almost two weeks. We need help! The game is http://www.phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=10029

1 reply

Open

idealist (680

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

MODS. PLEASE DISBAND THIS GAME

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11713&msgCountry=Global
many thing went wrong...many misunderstandings. we all vote to restart some other time. moderators, please disband this game

4 replies

Open

Nietzsche (0

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Live Game!!!!!!!

Come on I'm bored as hell, anybody up for a live game? Post inside if interested and we can figure out the details.

40 replies

Open

Sayjo the Lion-Hearted (1096

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Unpause

Can any mods unpause this game for me please? The original France was banned for probably multiaccounting and since then half the remaining people insisted on a draw and wouldn't unpause and have not logged on in two weeks. I don't have points to spare sunk into a dead end game. I'd rather it be unpaused then let them go into CD. The new France is active at least, not that it'll help lol

http://www.phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11095

2 replies

Open

Babak (26982

)
18 Jun 09 UTC

My hiatus from PhP Dip and a few points about the crisis in Iran

Friends and Foes alike - those of you who are in my games will have noted that I have been hard to find these last few days. I have been busy organizing events here in DC and around the country with the "WHERE IS MY VOTE" grass-roots group. I will be back - but my return is heavily dependent on real-world events. Below is my take and how I think you can help...

Babak (26982 )
18 Jun 09 UTC

first some context:

I am an Iranian-American born in 1979 in Shiraz, Iran. I've been living in the US for 20 years now. I studied Political Science with a concentration on Middle Eastern studies and I've been active in Iranian American organizations and groups since I was in High School. My professional career has mainly been in the non-profit sector, most recently working in an advocacy organization (which I helped found) that has worked towards normalized relations between the US and Iran, opposing war during the last administration, and promoting direct, unconditional dialogue between these two nations(National Iranian American Council - www.niacouncil.org + for current events check the blog www.NiacInsight.com).

I have relatives and friends inside Iran, and obviously, as someone working in the field of US-Iran policy I am rather informed about what is going on both before the recent election and after. but i wanted to provide you the above info so you can make your own judgements.

currently, I'm one of the coordinators of the global "WHERE IS MY VOTE?" (website being updated: www.RayMaKojast.org) movement and over the past 5 days I've been helping organize the daily protests here in DC and have been one of the spokespeople for the group in DC.

What happened:

Iran has a complex, byzantine, and fractious political structure. It is not a simple black & white story and anyone who claims its easy to understand has no clue. in Iran's complex structure there are many power centers, with the Supreme Leader (Velayate Faqih) at its apex. Instead of going through a voluminous dissertation of the system, I'll just say that there are many factions, and MANY power centers.

Friday's election 'results' were what we are now calling a "White Coup" which is a coup d'etat covered with the veneer of an election. The coup orchestrators were elements within the Sepah (Revolutionary Guard), and they were conducting the coup against the economic, political, and yes, religious elite of the Islamic Republic. In essence, it was the 2nd generation of revolutionaries (those who came of age and into leadership during and after the Iran/Iraq war) vs the 1st generation of revolutionaries (those who walked with Imam Khomeini and were leaders of the revolution itself). During Ahmadinejad's 1st term, he put many of his faction into positions of power within the system, and in a sense, he 'militarized' the government to an unprecedented degree - where now upwards of 30% of the Majlis are former members of the Sepah, many of his government ministers, governors (which are appointed), and judiciary officials are also former Sepah commanders. Furthermore, the Revolutionary Guard as an institution is said to directly control some 30% of the Iranian economy through its various business holdings.

The 'old guard' united in this election behind Mousavi, a former prime minister from 1980 to 1988... this 'old guard' includes some of the most powerful and senior figures in the political and religious establishment from all ends of the political spectrum...

so - the real fight behind the scenes is not between left and right, reformist and conservative, or any such non-sense. its between the old establishment which created the 'Islamic Republic' and a new generation of leaders who are looking to create a system more akin to Pakistan, Egypt, or pre-Virtue Party Turkey where there is a dominant Military elite and a veneer of Democracy.

What happened over the last month (not really covered by your media) was that Iran had one of its most robust and engaged political campaigns in its history with unprecedented levels of debate, activism, and participation - not unlike the 2008 elections here in the US. The election itself drew some 85% voter participation and the level of people's enthusiasm surprised everyone, particularly the Sepah and Ahmadinejad's camp which did not expect a robust opposition.

The election results announced by the Interior ministry were nothing short of complete fabrications. The level of audacity it took for them to announce such patently ridiculous results was just stunning. I wont go into the details, but suffice to say that inside Iran and out, there is ZERO legitimacy given to the 'official' vote tally.

In essence, what Ahmadinejad and his 'team' tried to do (with the backing of the Supreme Leader Khamenei) was conduct a coup under the guise of an election - with very clear and clever plans to follow it all up by arresting and getting rid of many of the most powerful figures of the revolution including the likes of Rafsanjani, Nateq Nouri, Khatami, and others... what they did not expect is that the people of Iran would not take this sitting down.

The people rose up in protest, the results of which you can see or follow in media all over the world... at this point, the future is VERY uncertain, because neither 'team' seems willing to back down. on one side, Ahmadinejad's team has the Sepah backing it up (with guns), and on the other you have Mousavi/Rafsanjani/Khatami/Karoubi's team with the people (legitimacy) backing it up. either side that loses will Lose for good - so they are in the midst of an all-in bet with literally their lives on the line.

The people in Iran are not protesting to overthrow the system nor are they calling for a revolution like there were in 1979. in fact, what they are fighting for is to PRESERVE the Islamic Republic system... they are trying to preserve the 'Republic' part of the system.

In essence, what the people want, is a say in how their government functions... and they feel that within the rubric of the Islamic Republic, they have the tools they need to eventually change/reform the system into what they really would like to see... but what they are seeing is the possibility that even that small window of opportunity to 'reform' the system is being taken away from them.

sooo... now what? what are they asking for?

well, they, and us here in the west who stand in solidarity with them are asking for the following:

1. A new, transparent, and internally monitored election.

2. The release of all prisoners/detainees from the last week, including political leaders of the various opposition factions.

3. The opening of means of communication, including television, phone, and internet access.

4. A thorough and inclusive investigative commission to look into the fraud of Election day which would include representatives from various government organs, religious ulema, and all four campaigns.

NOTE: These are not radical or revolutionary demands. The people in Iran are NOT looking for a revolution - they are accepting the Islamic Republic and 85% of them went to vote within that structure... but they will not stand for the 'Republic' element of that system to be taken away from them without a fight.

i'm sure 99% of you stopped reading a long time ago - but to the few that stuck around... what can you do?

1st - Demand from your governments and media outlets NOT to legitimize the 'official' results. currently, only Russia and to a lesser extent China have recognized Ahmadinejad's "victory" and the US and Europe have refrained from doing so - this is Key - write your members of congress, your leaders, your media outlets and tell them that you stand with the freedom seeking protesters in the streets of Iran and you want YOUR government NOT to recognize the fraudulent results of Friday.

2nd: Ask your Governments and Media outlets to NOT take sides... The Iranian people do not need Western governments to support or oppose their choice in candidates... so tell your governments (specially those damn Republicans in the US) to butt out! of the internal political discourse in Iran. another words - no need to meddle or declare their solidarity with any of the opposition candidates as that would backfire and help Ahmadinejad.

3rd: As INDIVIDUALS - as other human beings - all Iranians would love for YOU to declare YOUR solidarity with them... as Human beings fighting for their democratic rights and for democratic principles of peaceful assembly, peaceful dissent, and a fair election. How? wear Green this coming Saturday. change your FB profile pic. go to a protest or rally in your city.

I've written far more than I initially intended... but here is the conclusion:

Stand in solidarity with the PEOPLE of Iran. Oppose the recognition or legitimization of the fraudulent election results from Friday. Ask your leaders and Media to follow Obama's lead in NOT picking sides, but standing for universal democratic principles.

hope to get back to my games very soon - but if this situation last a while, you'll know why I'm not around here much.

Chrispminis (916 )
18 Jun 09 UTC

Hear hear Babak. Thank you very much for shedding some light on a convoluted situation. It seems you've been geared up for this moment, and I hope you're up to the work ahead.

You should be able to find a qualified sitter, and we look forward to your return.

sherekhan (100 )
18 Jun 09 UTC

Babak - do you have any actual proof that the election was actually forged?

I mean isn't it absolutely plausible that Ahmedinijad DID win this election fairly?

Honestly, saying "65% is too high a margin of winning, so it must have been rigged" isn't very convincing... (although the protests in Tehran do speak for that, in some regard... then again these are only being held in Tehran, and not other parts of the country, say for example the rural and urban areas, where Ahmedinijad is said to be very liked, and highly supported)

Ndr-Isr (592 )
18 Jun 09 UTC

babak that was very inlightning, and I learned some new things about Iranian politics that I didn't know before, thank you for that.

I'm at a strange position here,becuase eventually my country and your country will probably remain in conflict either way, but If there's one thing I do hope, Is that Iranian freedom of speech is restored and we'll see a lively Iranian community online at all times.
Good Luck

Babak (26982 )
18 Jun 09 UTC

@ chris - thx. My plans for asitter from FB are seeming to fall through, so any takers here?

@sherekhan - there will never be any 'proof' in the sense of 'without reasonable doubt' bc the state control over all mechanisms of the election is so complete. But there is incontravertable circumstantial evidence piled so high it'd blot out the sky. The canard of him being 'popular' in rural areas is also a well crafted buffoonary to fool the ill-informed. His economic policies have destroyed not only employment levels and the value of the rial (currency), but also irans own manufacturing and agriculture base... even a best case scenario would give him say 51 or 52% victory in the SECOND round, not in the first. I wrote a long piece elsewhere on this that I can copy paste here later - but for now how's this? I know more about iran and its election than u by a LONG shot right? Go with that. If that's not enough - go with the fact that there are at best 2 or 3 iran experts who think 62% is even theoretically possible out of thousands the world over. If u even that is not enough, and u just simply can't trust other smart people and 'so called experts' - then at least u should agree that the perception now in iran and around the world is that Ahmadinejad has minimal legitimacy and his own people consider his 'win' a farce.

Also, who told u demonstrations are in tehran only? See - told you I knew more about the subject =P. Just yesterday there was a death in isfahan, tabriz has had massive protests and has been on fire for days (not only are the youtube vids available, my uncle lives there). Shiraz, my hometown, has had clashes since day 1, the university is a fort where the students are fighting off the basijis by night, and making forays into the city to be joined by other city folk by day for massive protests... again videos on you tube. Mashad, rashd, hamedan, ghazvin, and dozens of other cities have reported protests... all while state-controlled media covers none of it and foreign journalists are now basically under hotel-arrest until their visas run out. Also, did you know iran is 65% urban? Did you know that 60+% of the population is under 30 (we had a big baby BOOM generation in the 80s)?

Also, voter turnout in 2005 was 60%, and 85% this time. U think that extra 25% of the pop turned out in droves and with such excitement to vote for the status quo?

Soooo... I can promise you there will never be any conclusive evidence - ever. But there will also be no doubt, not a single iota, that the announced results were an absurdly comical set of results.

@Ndr-Isr. Whatever we may disagree on, it is clear there are things all of us can always agree on... respecting people's right to vote and their right not be beaten and killed by the government that is supposed to protect them are two such things. Also, if u want to truly enlighten yourself about the underlying dynamics of Iran-Israel-US relations, read 'Treterous Triangle' by Dr Trita Parsi (whom you've all seen on CNN and BBC countless times by now) .

One thing Ndr - our countries are not at conflict... the perception of the national interests of our countries, as seen through the eyes of our short-sighted conservative leaders, are at conflict. Both of us suffer from the same pain - our countries and their leaders are governed by ultra-reactionary ideologies that demand an 'enemy' to survive. A real rational assesment of geopolitics would show quickly that Iran and Israel are actually natural allies. A thing even yitzak Rabin said in 1987 during the rule of Imam Khomeini himself.

Ndr-Isr (592 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

I remember reading about the alliance between our countries. The main problem was that that alliance was with the sha, a known corrupted leader, and once falled the hatred spread to all of his common allies. I hope that the stupidity of our leaders will not put us in a road to conflict. Issues can be debated and agreed on,compromises will be achived by pressuring both sides.
War is a lose-lose situation.

Ndr-Isr (592 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

Btw, it seems clear that many Iranians were hoping for an Obama style change,or at least like Gorbachov in Russia. I can relate to the injustice. The influence that the people have on the goverment will be over for good if the people dont make the goverement realize that the goverment serves the people, not the other way around. This can be done peacefully I hope

Centurian (3257 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

As far as "proof" is concerned, there are just things that don't really make sense. Like Tabriz, Mousavi's hometown, going to the incumbent. That would be like Obama losing Chicago.

Anyways, nice work Babak. I'd be willing to do the Facebook profile thing. Do you have some sort of green image with an appropriate "Iran deserves a choice too" slogan or something of the like that I could put up?

scagga (1810 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

With respect to the chap (I think it was sherekhan?) who raised the question regarding 'proof' of the accusations of election fraud, I think it is reasonable to question any accusation that is made. Let me share some observations that may help you come to your own conclusions:

- The election results were announced within 8 hours (some reports say 2 hours) of the polls closing. Note, it was a paper ballot election. Counting all the provinces within such a short space of time, in my recollection, has not happened before.

- The degree of support for the incumbent (Ahmedinejad) was reported to be almost homogenous throughout the country. This bespeaks even support through each stratum of Iranian society. It is consistent with previous reports from all sides that the incumbent had particular groups / areas where he had predominant control, and vice versa with respect to his opponents

(Disclaimer: These subsequent observations taken from various news reports, I cannot verify that they are the truth)

- Certain reports claim that 10 million ballots lacked National ID and thus were untraceable
- Certain reports claim that the counting of the ballots was stopped prematurely
- The opposition has claimed that their ballot supervisory staff were denied access, which prevented them from checking for fraud.

My opinion is that it is 'likely' that the vote was tampered with, but as the original post noted - there are many groups involved, and it is best not to oversimplify.

jbalcorn (429 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

There are way too many signals that the election was falsified to take it at face value - from how quicky the results were announced to how out of balance the results were with expectations. In this case, I have to hand it to the Bush team - when they stole the 2000 election, they did it just barely enough to create reasonable doubt in a majority of Americans. The Iranian coup was so ham-handed as to make it obvious.

@Babak - it sounds like you approve of Obama's current stance toward the election - calling for transparency, fairness and civil rights without taking a side. It seems to be the right approach - my understanding of Iranian society is that the young people are fairly pro-western, but can easily be turned against with any kind of heavy-handed approach from outside.

Obviously, we aren't looking at a pro-American v. Anti-American debate here - the 'Reformists' aren't going to change any foreign policy, with the possible exception of the worst of the bat-shit crazy stuff Ahmadinejad has been doing like the Holocaust denials. But am I correct that at least Mousavi stands for the democratic ideals of a government that represents the will of the people?

kestasjk (64 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

Interesting thread, I really wish our media did a better job of covering what has been happening in Iran

jman777 (407 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

thank you alot Babek. that was all extremely interesting. and I agree, American media is terrible. personally I think that the government controls it....but thats for a different thread.

Maniac (189 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

@Babak - Thanks for the explaination, it was little long but I learnt something, so thanks for that. Do I understand you correctly that one set of revolutionaries has been deposed in a white coup by another set of revolutionaries?

What I didn't understand before, and you haven't thrown much light on this, is what do the opposing groups stand for? What are their policies, attitude towards women, human rights, religious freedoms, foreign policy, etc, etc. Whilst I'm a firm believer in democracy I don't think 'supporting' either side in an election that didn't appear free and fair to begin with is the way forward.

jbalcorn (429 )
19 Jun 09 UTC

And how does the Basij fit into all of this? Is the vandalism being done by the Basij having the desired effect? or are the people aware that the demonstrators are being blamed unfairly?

Babak (26982 )
20 Jun 09 UTC

@ Ndr - the alliance is beyond leaders (shah etc) its between the national interests of the two non-arab, non-sunni nations (along with Turkey). remember, during the 80s, Israel kept egging Reagen to recognize Iran... under Khomeini.

@ centurian - there is a "Where is [their] vote" profile pic which puts a 'their' sticker on the word 'my'... really gets the idea across... the link is on Andrew Sullivan's blog maybe someone can find it and post it here...

here it is: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/06/greening-your-facebook-profile.html

@ scagga - great. nothing to add.

@ jbalcorn - the 'BIG LIE' theory came into play today. Khamenei's response was basically "11 million votes - too big a difference for there to be irregularities"... this was a meticulously planned coup - we'll find out tomorrow if there will be blood in the streets...

- Obama's handling has been great. nothing short of masterful. ALL of iranian society, irrelevant of even their support for Ahmadinejad wants more open-ness with the west. but they want that openness to include mutual respect. part of the iranian psyche is a desire to show 'we can do it ourselves'. part of it is 'we dont really trust your governments'... and part of it is that there are some conservatives who are in the middle RIGHT NOW... and deciding between AN and Mousavi... if they sense this has the whiff of a '53 coup or more importantly, US backing of Saddam - then they will bolt to spite the US in essence... but if they genuinely feel that this IS an internal Iranian opposition, they are likely to even join Mousavi/Rafsanjani or to at least stay out of the fight.

this fight is now at the highest levels of the islamic republic... these are all the power elites of society taking sides...

on the diff between AN and Mousavi - you are dead on. it is somewhat a stylistic difference... but what it REALLY is - is deciding whether the "Republic" in Islamic Republic has value and meaning anymore? The people want at least a method by which to reform and have their will included in the debate... and that last thread is being taken away. there is also the difference between the interests of the Military in a state vs the interests of the state itself. not always overlaping... one is always more paranoid than the other.

@ Kestas - Western Media sucks on so many accounts - this is the least of our worries lol. but you all want some good sources:

www.huffingtonpost.com (Main thread)
www.niacinsight.com (Key info)
andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com

@ jman777 - in fact the power of the western states resides in the fact that the real power is outside of government and runs government through a proxy called money. but that distance at least gives the people a chance to have a bigger say...

@Manic - yes. we have the two forces within the power elite of Iran vying for power... and after today its clear they are not only playing for keeps but they have gone all-in. Khamenei just put his Supreme Leadership on the line yesterday...

on the differences between the 'parties' - look, just like some dont see a 'real' difference between Dems and Reps in the US - there isnt really a difference between the two sides in Iran either... but the differences that exist are huge... a matter of how much of the people's will and WHICH people's will will be listend to? the hard core religious right? or more of the urban educated progressive left? for the lives of people inside Iran... life in 1998 and 2008 (Khatami vs Ahmadinejad) was like night and day... does that mean you or I could even LIVE in 1998 Iran... hell no. but that does not mean there was no difference for the people living under those two differing eras. make sense?

on foreign policy - the differences are mostly stylistic in the sense that the security needs of Iran will remain the same - and the dangers that Iran's security establishment will face will be the same. but the differences will be in HOW Iran deals with them... lean towards a more multi-lateral approach or more of an isolationist approach. Also - be very clear about something... Russia is 100% behind Ahmadinejad... and if he stays, this is a HUGE win for Russia and almost a response to what happened in Ukraine...

so in the end - the difference will be night and day - yet the more things change... the more things stay the same. so you figure it out ;)

@jbalcorn - people live in their own realities. there are conservatives here in the US who TRULY BELIEVE that Obama is a socialist muslim terroirst. its not just stuff they say - they really really really believe that crap. Basijis come from that group of people. They are fanatical, red-neck, ignorant, uninformed, misguided thugs... with guns... and with authority to use their guns on other people who are "evil".

THAT is why we are all afraid of a bloodbath...

buys... please pray!!! even those of you who, like me, are non-believers.

sean (3490 )
20 Jun 09 UTC

thanks Babak, ive been following this story from huffingtonpost but do you have a better site to suggest? i couldnt load your raymak site you suggested.
Al jazeera has been somewhat downplaying this issue i feel too, aljazeera has couched it in terms of disgruntled middle class university students protesting the election results.
some quick questions, why is Khamenei putting all his eggs in Ahmadinejad basket? Khamenei is like Rasfanjani, an old school revolutionary iman. i was under the impression than rasfangani was instrumental in making khamenei the supreme leader after the ayatollah died.

saturday is gearing up to be the make or break day it seems. interesting to see this

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/06/13/iran-demonstrations-viole_n_215189.html

china downplaying the news. i just hope that it wont turn out like Tianamin Square but rather like when the wall fell in eastern europe

scagga (1810 )
20 Jun 09 UTC

@ Sean

I'm not one to 'tell' anyone what to think, but when judging news reports I would 'suggest' that it is very important to be careful when using the word 'downplaying', as there is little in the way of an objective 'standard' in any of the media I have so far come across.

bismark2 (308 )
20 Jun 09 UTC

Sweet cupcakes, I though this was a GAME forum.

That said, applaudible level of analysis; if only our actual pundits would examine such events as you do. I clearly do not know nearly as much as I should or would like about the situation; my amero-centric viewpoint puts me at a disadvantage. It strikes me, though, that the Iranian people have a great deal of strength and desire for political power (not necessarily democracy proper), as demonstrated by their orgiginal revolution and their strong show of solidarity for Mousavi; it also seems that the president has forgotten the lessons of his own revolution: do not step beyond the people's will. We'll see, but I have confidance in Iran's ability to set itself on a course of its people's choosing.

Hamilton (137 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

I'm glad to read an Iranian perspective instead of the stupid Religious v. Reformist rhetoric in the Western media. I had followed the election beforehand and anticipated a slight victory by Ahmadinejad (in the first round, because I anticipated that the supporters of the two minor candidates would have supported Mousavi in the second), and Mousavi campaigned did not seem like something "reformist" at least not in the way the media presented it to be. Mousavi called for the return of the principles of the Islamic Revolution. How could this be, in the Western sense, reformist?

There seems to be a lot of misinformation going around, probably purposefully. I read the supposed "real results" with Karroubi beating Ahmadinejad(who only had 6 million votes total) and felt that these results are also complete fabrications.

Anyway, I sympathize with your plight and hope that whatever happens bring Iran into less contact with the US.

Sayjo the Lion-Hearted (1096 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

This thread is why I love all of you ^_^. My lifestyle outside of Internet discourse rarely leads to people who have as high a level of awareness.

flashman (2274 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

I must say thanks to Babak too, but would like to point out that from a week or so before the election, we have had an unprecedented amount of coverage here in HK. Iran is not usually given much of a place - the Chinese-interest bias in the media is strong, this time round though we have had a lot, really a lot - and the videos coming out have been most revealing.

Remember, this is China and the leaders don't like anyone seeing or hearing anything that could encourage protest. Think of Beijing and Tibet etc...

The result has been that I have been able to keep a reasonable tag on events.

Maniac (189 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

What would you do if.....

Liverpool and Man Utd (two English Premiereship teams), decided between themselves that they will decide the 2010 title by playing just one game, and it was between Man Utd and Liverpool. In the game, Liverpool are denied 5 clear cut penalities and Man Utd win by 1-0. As it is being played at Old Trafford (Man Utd home ground) some suspect that either the ref has been influenced by the fans or maybe Man Utd have brined the ref. Liverpool football club are outraged and call on their fans to riot in protest, they should really have won, and argueably play better football than anyone else in the premiereship. Liverpool then call on the other teams who didn't get to play in the premiereship 'decider' to back their cause. They even call upon teams from other nations to declare the result null and void, and insist on a rematch between the two teams.

Should Real Madrid, and Aston Villa, and Barcelona, support Liverpool's claims for a rematch?

I'm a simply guy and can only understand complex issues if they are explained to me using footballing metaphors.

figlesquidge (2131 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

How about if Chelsea and Barcelona are playing in the semi-finals of the champions league. Chelsea have been playing ugly football and those in power don't want to see them in the final, making another ManU-Chelsea draw. So, when they have numerous viable penalty shouts the referee ignores them and because of this they go out and the team who the governing body wanted to win go through.

Now, I'm an Arsenal fan, so don't actually believe that the governing body forced the result, but that footballing analogy is much better...

gjdip (1065 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

Of course, there should be a rematch. Man Utd are gits!

figlesquidge (2131 )
21 Jun 09 UTC

Hmm, rereading your analogy fits rather better - I think I must have misread it the first time (or just phased out at the thought of united and liverpool). Perhaps more suitable if at half time there are a group of men with guns standing at the referee's changing room who 'remind' him that, whilst the game has been very close, ManU *are* going to win... aren't they!

Babak (26982 )
22 Jun 09 UTC

thx for the comments guys - back for a few comments....

first an update: we are past a critical juncture, now its going to take 1 to 2 weeks for the smoke to clear and we see what the ground looks like. on the one hand, Khamenei's forces (the supreme leader is now the clear leader of the "White Coup"), have put the basijis (the paramilitaries) in the front line and they are being given free reign to be brutal, but the official security forces are staying out of the front line (they dont want 'official' government forces killing people yet).

The government forces have tried their best outside of mass-killings to stop it all. they have managed to reduce the number of protesters, but not quell the illigitamacy question... they are playing by the 'statist' rulebook - blame outsiders, get confessions from 'terrorists', complete control of the news, massive security forces in the city (reports of 300,000 FORMAL security forces from all over the country in Tehran now - they are putting down thousands of officers in each major square and closing off all road access, close to martial law)

on the people's side, there is good and bad news - Mousavi, who is the clear 'leader' of the opposition has put out strong unbending statements, even saying he's ready to be a martyr... but he is not being seen in public (not safe at all) and he is not able to speak to his supporters directly. lots of misinformation and 'fake' info being pumped into the ether by gvnt forces too... the people also seem unfazed - and we have the story of "Neda" which is one of those powerful stories that can unify the entire population (an unarmed girl killed, with video). The bad news is that the regime is arresting any and all 'leaders' and 'organizers' it can... and they may start to succeed in causing state terror to keep ppl at home... right now its unclear and its in the hands of the PEOPLE themselves if they can continue with this energy... and they need support and they need leaders.

so what IS clear? what is clear is that the Islamic Republic as a theocracy is OVER. dont get me wrong, AN and Khamenei may well stay in power for a long time still, states with monopoly on force can stay in power for a long time (China after Tianaman - Soviet Union just as powerful examples) but what is clear is that the legitamacy of the supreme leader and the system 'as was' is gone.... so we may have a far more repressive 'military dictatorship' with a veneer of republicanism.

What can be done: first - the entire world must REJECT the election results. that includes media, governments, and individual human beings around the world. second - the world must CONDEMN the human rights violations in Iran. we need to bear witness to the brutality and third - we need to make sure we are very public about our 'moral' support for the people of iran... that gives them energy and hope and at least a realization that they are NOT alone... even if they lose, they will feel they are on the right side of history... and that is SOOOOOOO important.

so - this is not over by a long shot - but we are about to see the river card in this All-In hand of poker... the government is ahead, but the opposition still has plenty of outs - including a draw to a straight flush (if the council of experts, with Rafsanjani as its head, impeaches the supreme leader - which is a possibility)

one last point - lots of quesionts (in RL) about what iranians think the US and Obama should do: 1st - understand that Obama is doing a GREAT job - PERFECT really. moral support without getting the US to become an issue. 2nd. the Congress should be ashamed... specially McCain and the Republicans... they are using the struggle and sacrifice of the people of Iran to score domestic political points and they should be ashamed... ASHAMED.

ok - to specific comments:

@ Sean - HuffPo is great - follow his links. also andrewsullivan and NIAC's blog are good starting points. NY TIme's Cohen, Laura Secor, and some other journalists are doing great analysis as well. try to find translations of things Ata Mohajerani, Akbar Ganji, and Mohsen Kadivar are writing if you can.

Rafsanjani is the 2nd most powerful man in Iran - he does not need a post to be that powerful, but he and Khamenei have been at odds for a LONG time... its like two business parnters who have had a slowish falling out over the years and now they are competitors as to who gets a controling share of the company. there are a TON of more minor actors with various stock shares in the company and over the next week or two, we'll find out which one of these two men has 51% of the shareholder vote (actually, Raf will need much more than 51% to win this fight, b/c Khamenei has the guns). this is a very powerful internal fight... with the people vs the basij as just the most public (and most important - but not decisive on its own) front in that fight.

as for China... China and Russia are squarely behind Khamenei.... they have a deal and Khamenei has promised them pleny of returns if they stick by him, so they will.

@ scagga - true but at the same time - there are realities on the ground in Iran that are not being analyzed (or overanalyzed) by various news outlets - and there are clear agendas out there... I dont think sean's perception of al-jazirra's coverage is all that far off. they know where their bread is buttered, and the arab street still REALLY likes Ahmadinejad...

@ bismark - thx

@ Hamilton - reform, by definition means "keeping what you have and improving it" not "change it all up". that would be revolution. so the 'reformists' including Mousavi would change things up, but not the fundemental underpinnings of the system they founded themselves...

also - remember, the iranian people are not adhering to your, my, or the US's viewpoints... Iran still has very valid national security interests that will be at odds with the West no matter who runs the country or what system is ...

gotta run now so I cant respond to the other points individually... but just to say that the iranian crisis is not a soccer match... and its WAY too complex for any simplifying metaphor...

in the US:

ask your congressmen and senators to stop using the situation in Iran as a political football to score partisan points.

tell them to support President Obama's response so far... he has been wise and measured, and repsonded perfectly...

and ask ALL governments in the world, media, and the UN not to recognize the election and NOT to legitimize Ahmadinejad no matter what - until there is a new election where the votes are actually counted.

Maniac (189 )
22 Jun 09 UTC

I wasn't using my football metaphor to deminish the seriousness of the situation. Whilst I have learnt al ot from your posts when I digest it you seem to be saying, it is complex (which I'm sure it is) and that we should not intevene and also not legitimise the election. I think that position is intellectually unsustainable. By not legitimising the result we are intevening on the side of the people who lost. I don't think you can have you cake and eat it.

On a little lighter note, when asked if football was a matter of life and death Jock Stein replied, "Of course not, it's more important than that!".

27 replies

baron von weber (549

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Support holding??

If 2 units sup hold each other does that make the support in valid? I.e I had Kiel sup holding Mun and Mun sup holding Kiel. Mun was attacked by a unit supported by another and the move was succesfull.

13 replies

Open

Knights Dawn (100

)
18 Jun 09 UTC

Worst pickup lines of all time?

Anybody got any ideas? I think this might be a fun forum to get some imagination brewing.

91 replies

Open

idealist (680

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

LIVE GAME...TONIGHT. see thread

dunecat, bishiofrome, razz, dibent, airborne, germ, jacob, crazyter
any of you guys free tonight?

everyone else please sign up. the above are ones i know who are active and are dying for a live game.!

19 replies

Open

Scotsh (278

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

Talking in Gunboat/No Press

Whats the policy about this.
Will mods/admins intervene if rules are broken for these variants or is it up to the players to deal with rule-breakers in those games?

17 replies

Open

Submariner (111

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

Multi account request

Is it possible to have multiple number of accounts?
I need them to set up multiple threads asking for multiple accounts because I understand that starting too many threads yourself is frowned upon.
Please Chrisp, please!

14 replies

Open

zoofie (351

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

join me game!

join "faster game" 12 hour phase time and yes i will destroy you

0 replies

Open

The General (554

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

Question about the point system and rankings

more inside

12 replies

Open

OmegaOm (100

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Can I make a support move from a new conquered province?

Can I make a support move from a new conquered province and still keep the province in Autum just before unit placement.

2 replies

Open

djbent (2572

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

if a country is CD

and they are eliminated, does it go on the players record as "eliminated" or "left"?

3 replies

Open

Herbert (145

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Resign ?

Can we resign ? Or at least like leave the game ?

8 replies

Open

Jamiet99uk (873

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Players needed

http://www.phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11702

Low buy-in, starts in next few hours. Come join!

3 replies

Open

jasoncollins (186

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Live games in general

There has to be some better way of setting up live games...

7 replies

Open

airborne (154

)
18 Jun 09 UTC

+25 signs that you have been playing too much Diplomacy

inside

151 replies

Open

airborne (154

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Low points?

I'm having my worst losing streak ever on phpdiplomacy.
Did you have a low point too?

12 replies

Open

laughomatic (100

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

1 hour game join now

Quick game 4 starts in less than an hour join for some fun

4 replies

Open

germ519 (210

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

1 hr live game post here if you'll join

Starts as soon as 7 people post here. 10-15 min move phases 2-5 min retreat/build phase.

31 replies

Open

Draugnar (0

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

A thread just for Matser_Diplofool...

No one except Master_Diplofool post here. Then he can argue with himself, keep this thread at the top (it's just one thread) and the intelligent people can actually have meaningful dialogues.

0 replies

Open

FloatingLakes (5034

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

Unpause World at War-9 please?

This game was paused due to a hacker, the only one needed to unpause has already finalized. Please unpause.

2 replies

Open

idealist (680

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

MODS NEED PAUSE

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11713

its an active game..and one of the guys is not here...we dont want anyone cheating. please pause

4 replies

Open

T3h p0wn3r (100

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

Question

When we run out of points to join games may we then create another account?

4 replies

Open

idealist (680

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

TWEAK...GET THE $#$$ OVER HERE

- dont blame me, requested by other 5 people =D

3 replies

Open

jodabomb24 (100

)
21 Jun 09 UTC

Ummmm...What's going on?

Has anyone ever had anything weird happen to them? Diplomacy-related or otherwise. This should make for some fun reading for all!

I'll go first. So we have this game, and we all voted for a draw. The GameMaster says, the vote will be acted on within five minutes. This was like 15 hours ago. What's going on?

6 replies

Open

idealist (680

)
22 Jun 09 UTC

ONE PERSON NEEDED FOR ACTIVE GAME!!

http://phpdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=11713

1 reply

Open

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