Yeah, but I am 3 Turkeys.

Yes, what I'm saying is that because you've only played 6 games 'Turkey coming up a lot' isn't all that remarkable. If you'd played 50 games with 25 as Turkey that would be cause for concern.

Okay, I'll let you know in a few weeks.

Jolly good!

This comes up every fortnight or so!
It is random, and indeed with the number of players you would expect to get these results. The next release will have wieghting to reduce the chance of this occuring. I say reduce because there will still be a chance you'll get it - the system will never become deterministic

i dont know why your complaining i love being turkey...so safe early on.

It's not about being Turkey. It's about being Turkey 1/2 of the time. I like variety.

It's random.

If you had gotten any other country three times, you'd be saying the same thing. If you do the math, it isn't surprising at all.

In the games I've started from the start, I've been Turkey three times, France twice, and Italy once.

The chances for specifically Turkey turning up three times are 3.7% Given that there are seven different countries, that makes the probability of getting one three times in six is over 25%

Yeah, I see where you got that 25%, but I don't think I agree with that. There is something wrong with that math. I can't put my finger on it, but there is no way that there is only a 75% chance that you won't get the same result 1/2 the time.

There are clearly 7^6 different possible outcomes.

We then need to count all of those which have the same nation appearing three times.

7^4x6x5x4/(3x2) is the number of triples to be found, but some of those are double counted.

1.All situations with 4 of the same country are counted 4C3=4 times
2.All situations with 5 of the same country are counted 5C3=10 times
3.All situations with 6 of the same country are counted 6C3=20 times
4.All situations with 3 of two different countries are counted 2 times

Because of 1. we need to take off 3x(7^3x6x5x4x3/(4x3x2))

But this also takes off:
2. All situations with 5 of the same country 3x 5C4=15 times
3. All situations with 6 of the same country 3x 6C4=45 times

So now due to the "2."s we have to add on 6 times the number of situations with 5 of the same country, so we add on 6x(7^2x6x5x4x3x2/(5x4x3x2))

But this also adds on:
3. All situations with six appearing 6 x 6C5=36 times

So because of the "3."s we need to take off 10 times the number of cases where all countries are the same, or 7x10.

Because of 4. we need to take off all the situations where two different countries appear 3 times, or (7x6/2)x6x5x4/(3x2)

Putting all this together we get:
7^4x6x5x4/(3x2)-3x(7^3x6x5x4x3/(4x3x2))+6x(7^2x6x5x4x3x2/(5x4x3x2))-7x10-(7x6/2)x6x5x4/(3x2)

Which I make to be 33859

So the probability is 33859/7^6 =28.8%

Note: The reason that this is more than 7x3.7 is because the 3.7 was for exactly 3 times.

Now, what was wrong with my maths?

Well, I don't even have the ability to argue with that, Ghost. I have no choice but to accept that what you say is true. :)

Ghost is indeed right, Ukla. The point is that 6 games is a _very_ small sample. The probability of getting the same country half the time is only small if you play many games. Think about tossing a (fair) coin 10 times. You expect to see 5 heads, but it's not that unlikely you'd get 7 heads. It is extremely unlikely, though, that you would get 700 heads from tossing a coin 1000 times.

Also, as figle says, since there are many players on this site, slightly improbable events should happen to some of them. After all, the probability you get the same country 3 times in your first _3_ games (you only got Turkey 3 times in 6 games) is 1/7 * 1/7 = 1/49. (In the second and third game, you have to get the same country you got the first time.) But with 14000 players on the site, a 1 in 49 chance should happen to about 285 people here!

Well, if weird odds are gonna pan out, they'll pan out for me.