It is 2, unless the power in question has only 1 unit, in which case it is 1. However, phases where you have no move (no retreats, or no changed to # of SC) don't count, so it can take longer than it otherwise might. At least that's what someone told me, and that's how it worked my CD-ridden game MMIX.
Note this subtlety: Russia played in an Autumn retreat phase, where they had 2 units (one of which had to retreat). But they also lost a SC, so they had to disband a unit in the next phase, and they were NMR (no orders received) that phase. So the program disbanded one of them (the one that was more important to keep, as it happens, but the program was just following the rules). Suddenly Russia was down to only 1 unit, and having just had 1 phase NMR, they went CD.