How exactly do you calculate this rating? You must factor in win/loss/draw/survive ratios and also take into account games played, and with whom those games were played. I'm just curious how each factor plays into it.

I'll publish how it works when I have the time to write it all up.

No! I missed the cut. How embarassing. By a mere dozen or so though.

I notice Canute is on the list though... perhaps we can cut it down enough to get me into the the top 100? :P

@aoe3 - If I was 101 I would have only been bitching about posting the top 101 players ;-) I'm actually at 150 exactly

1078,KaaRoy,101,202.9591646,6,95,200.3423662,6
10873,TheWizard,102,202.376308,10,543,122.2177644,2
429,undef,103,198.9303808,32,71,219.0465029,31
6072,horatio,104,198.1683523,17,404,130.1243789,13
2909,S_MaRt,105,197.3461677,26,122,184.4686469,26
426,Elwood,106,196.9646279,15,112,191.3086672,15
66,Salmaneser,107,196.6092275,144,117,188.7397703,144
2189,saulberardo,108,195.6670087,18,161,168.4319397,15
5431,fidel,109,194.5517345,10,133,178.1583289,11
6286,azzaron,110,194.3953297,27,83,207.7480307,25
1207,Zxylon,111,193.4883381,56,139,176.8946877,56
3410,Darwyn,112,193.3506905,34,68,221.454764,32
5073,Bengoa,113,193.0760525,17,124,183.8626128,17
6265,Centurian,114,192.8738224,43,102,196.4224579,39
6559,Spartan 00256,115,192.7658738,25,202,157.878826,22
8334,wideyedwanderer,116,192.0411244,19,91,202.5659194,16
5605,Modesty_Johnson,117,191.8262361,11,116,189.7550931,11
5618,kiv,118,191.2177888,47,106,193.5053908,45
10598,wooooo,119,190.9888828,24,302,140.5111093,10
4205,Chiropractisopher,120,190.893606,28,115,190.1822156,28
3362,VIOLA,121,189.7642727,62,108,193.0304223,59
10604,ScottDa3,122,189.1769635,14,429,128.8210604,7
4946,abgemacht,123,188.935054,27,88,205.4783127,26
4290,Oxygen,124,188.2215287,16,120,185.1374273,16
4391,positron,125,188.0817009,23,125,182.5654156,22
5046,el_maestro,126,187.9570107,22,82,208.1856396,22
5349,Bugger,127,186.3225141,25,86,206.7515623,25
3660,Valathorn,128,185.9374782,40,132,178.958396,40
1141,drzli,129,185.8881365,8,156,171.2109884,8
1168,japandy42,130,185.7115196,7,130,179.9685913,7
1967,stoni90,131,185.1955971,122,169,166.4719257,122
1737,SlkySmoothOtter,132,184.7937915,34,148,173.8106609,34
3108,Sparky McGee,133,184.7112119,8,127,182.1231535,8
1216,AntoniusRex,134,184.2413247,13,118,186.721281,13
3236,DJGizmo,135,183.7224844,14,136,177.2414867,14
7046,Wotan,136,183.589591,9,145,175.3741549,7
8601,lazysummer8484,137,183.3758276,18,150,173.2064607,16
1358,hanker,138,183.033599,9,111,191.751918,9
1132,Arthas,139,182.7782034,47,143,176.2196556,47
6325,DaveMorano,140,182.001299,30,182,163.3344763,30
4692,Stagger,141,181.9803224,63,110,191.8232929,61
2769,joao,142,181.6788009,31,157,170.7882083,30
5425,estebandlc,143,181.2635124,11,140,176.8145725,11
4239,mansea,144,179.8561001,47,79,209.7287727,47
928,Huey79,145,179.8129742,87,141,176.6733508,87
1151,Spaak,146,179.5592845,19,128,180.9200349,19
3112,oziodip,147,179.143565,8,121,184.5994355,8
2663,bc2000,148,178.6277979,63,159,168.9643443,63
8938,damian,149,178.209556,10,165,167.5740452,8
7427,philcore,150,178.0634602,17,304,140.3714669,14

Hey, congratulations to the new number one :)

9247 xcurlyxfries 896 113.50943895997 17 842 112.930960827558 7

lame, I dropped 200

nice!!! Thanks Ghost!!

so question - I presume I'm down in the 200s (267) b/c I've only finished 5 games (one CD takeover) but my win percentage is quite high (80%) soooooo... how do you balance # of games vs win% and the like? how does the formula lean?

maybe you could add 'words-per-forum-post' as a variable - I think I'd rank much higher with that included :-p

I am wondering... most improved position?

I would have digits per forum post if anything. Then I'd win.

With just 5 games you will be underrated, yes.

Does this factor (D) points in? I have a lot more points (both with or without those tied up in games) than people much higher than me... but I'm also just now getting into more experienced games.

No, it is a separate algorithm.

Gotcha. I just need to enter 800 games and win them all this month to try and take #1...

fuck yeah, I am on place 39

however could that happen ?

Most improved was Carman910 who went from 5253 in Jan to 944 in Feb.

Babak - you are 217 with a rating of 160.14

check out the sight that Ghostmaker posted, it has everyone on it

I guess if a newbie wins against a bunch of pros, it gives you quite a nice boost upwards on that list

Nice job TGM! Until the algorithm is published is impossible to comment on it from a math-side, the effort is certainly laudable!

As for Edi and a few other players, I was also thinking on this: when we discussed in the dev forum about the ELO system none of us two really spent many words about drawings...

The fact is that ELO comes originally from chess, where a draw is equal to "failure to beat the opponent / failure of the opponent at beating you". This means that in chess, a draw can be considered as a sign of equal strength between the two players.

In Diplomacy, though, draws are normally the outcome of a strategical option: Edi (and like him many others including me) have accepted at times to draw even if they were in the position to gain a solo victory.

I have the impression from your comments and from the ranking that the algorithm you are using does not account for that, but until I can see it I cannot come up with a suggestion to improve it.

As stated above, however: great effort and very interesting results! :)

Keep on going with that and if you need any help coding or setting up a server to update the ranking "live" via an XML service... just make a sign! :)

as for elo - draws and solos should both be considered "wins". eliminations and survivals should both be considered "losses".

A solo victory should give you the full points you are entitled to under the formula. A draw should give you full points divided by the number of people in the draw.

The payout systems are equivalent to PPSC and WTA, so it is just the "pot" and the relative "bets" of each player that are changed, in reality.

http://phpdiplomacy.tournaments.googlepages.com/theghost-ratingslist

The system, in the way it would be if implemented on the site rather than just by my own manipulation of the database:

New players' Ghost-rating=100



To Calculate New ghost rating of player p against players 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, & 6:



1.When player p joins the game:

a) New Game:

T,Mp,M1,M2,M3,M4,M5,M6,Sp,S1,S2,S3,S4,S5,=0,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,0,0,0,0,0



b) CD takeover:

Mi= SCi*7/34, Where SCi= Number of SCs held by player I, for all I (ie i=p,1,2,3,4,5,6)

T,Sp,S1,S2,S3,S4,S5,S6=0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0



2. Each "Diplomacy" turn/season

T=T+1

Si=Si+Ci, for all i, Where Ci= Current rating of player i. Ci=0 if player is in CD.



3. On falling into CD:

a) PPSC

Result=(SCp/34)-1

Put Ri=Mi*Si/T

Put Ai= Ri/(Rp+R1+R2+R3+R4+R5+R6)

Put (Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)=A1*Ap/(1-A1)+A2*Ap/(1-A2)+A3*Ap/(1-A3)+A4*Ap/(1-A4)+A5*Ap/(1-A5)+A6*Ap/(1-A5)

Expected Result= (18*Ap + 16*(Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)/((Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)+(B1;p,2,3,4,5,6)+(B2;p,1,3,4,5,6)+(B3;p,1,2,4,5,6)+(B4;p,1,2,3,5,6)+(B5;p,1,2,3,4,6)+(B6;p,1,2,3,4,5))/34

New Rating= Old Rating + (Sp+S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6)/17.5T*(Result-Expected Result)



b) WTA

Result=(SCp/34)-1

Expected Result= Rp/(Rp+R1+R2+R3+R4+R5+R6)

New Rating= Old Rating + (Sp+S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6)/17.5T*(Result-Expected Result)



4. On completeion of game

a) PPSC

Result= 1/n for n way draw, SCp/34

Put Ri=Mi*Si/T

Put Ai= Ri/(Rp+R1+R2+R3+R4+R5+R6)

Put (Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)=A1*Ap/(1-A1)+A2*Ap/(1-A2)+A3*Ap/(1-A3)+A4*Ap/(1-A4)+A5*Ap/(1-A5)+A6*Ap/(1-A5)

Expected Result= (18*Ap + 16*(Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)/((Bp;1,2,3,4,5,6)+(B1;p,2,3,4,5,6)+(B2;p,1,3,4,5,6)+(B3;p,1,2,4,5,6)+(B4;p,1,2,3,5,6)+(B5;p,1,2,3,4,6)+(B6;p,1,2,3,4,5))/34

New Rating= Old Rating + (Sp+S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6)/17.5T*(Result-Expected Result)



b) WTA

Result = 0 for loss, 1 for win, 1/n for nway draw

Expected Result= Rp/(Rp+R1+R2+R3+R4+R5+R6)

New Rating= Old Rating + (Sp+S1+S2+S3+S4+S5+S6)/17.5T*(Result-Expected Result)

http://forum.phpdiplomacy.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=135

Discussion about this latest version of Ghost-rating in the development forum.

Thanks for the data, TheGhostmaker, will have a look into it :)

thank you TGM. I posted my ideas in the dev forum.

worthy of a bump i say

If you go to the link posted above, I have now added some brief justifications for my decisions.

Link again: http://forum.phpdiplomacy.net/viewtopic.php?f=23&t=135