Alright, here's my preliminary analysis and explanations of the game thus far:
For all that there are 6 specialist roles in the game, this set up is about as vanilla as a 19 player set up gets. I don't feel that any extraordinary dispensations or biases should be applied in the analysis of this game based on its set up.
First, peterlund was scum in M28 with me, and applied a most similar logic in attempting to marshall a lynch on Balduran, who was town, expressing his distaste for what he perceives to be as mindless sheeping. I do not think it likely that he would employ the same logic as scum to start off the game, as it links him to previously known scum behavior. But naturally, he was said too little to be anything approaching confidence.
Regarding Jamiet, I very well remember how he exploded after DO made an arguably unprofessional phase change post death, resulting in his being banned from participating in M28, as well as his minor breakdown after he was voted off day 1 in survivor. It is my assessment that Jamiet is incapable of controlling his emotions, and thus believed that should I provoke him to a sufficient degree, he would inevitably let slip something he can't retract. I'm afraid my investigations have not borne anything especially juicy, but between what he has thus said and the way he followed Vash's vote on me that early with boldness and surety, I'm inclined to think town on this one.
It is evident to me that Oztra is town. Call it a gut feeling.
Now Vash is actually scum. Consider this: he voted me (and was the first) under the justification that "snowy is sucky," a line which he has used extensively in the previous discord game in which he was town and I was scum. And yet, if the content of my actions pinged him as being scummy, why does he make no effort to investigate the root of my behavior? I daresay none of us will actually believe that Vash is too busy or otherwise occupied to take the time to press a read he possesses. And yet he is lurking to an end which I do not believe coincides with anything but scum alignment.
Consider: in M27 he determined that he would pretend to be the cop and make bizarre and grand statements of deliberate lurking and, later, other things like "rolling a dice" to determine scum. Similar behavior was observed in M28. Yet where is he now? Anchoring and lurking. This is a departure from the mean of his usual actions. In the discord game, Vash claimed to be uninvested because he was abruptly requested to participate, and even then he gave more of an effort than this. It seems clear to me that this is an effort to fly under the radar, and I only draw one conclusion from such actions.
Regarding ghug:
I've only played one game in which he was scum, but I remember him being particularly suited for the role, and I find it perplexing that he would consider my statements on his skill level to be serious, especially given the praise I heaped on his play in the god qt.
Perhaps I've gotten carried away with the "let's call everyone shit" game, and I do apologize for that. Suffice it to say that if I truly believed all of you were garbage beyond any redemption, I would not deign to play with you all on this site.
My analysis of ghug's scum play is marked by a remarkably subtle buddying and pocketing of key town players. Having fallen for it once, I was very careful to observe his actions for repeat circumstances such that I may call him out on it - in a situation where he was town and I was scum, I could not find evidence of such behavior as to attempt to falsely implicate him.
The situation is much the same here. Far from buddying, he is running around actively antagonizing anyone he can get his hands on. Further, even though we fell for it hook, line and sinker DO and I had some early scum reads on ghug which he later dispelled through said above buddying. I feel no such equivalent in ghug's current play, and say (again) that I think he is town.
In retrospect, it is easy to see how my play ,ay be construed as being scummy.
Napoleonic variant. RELEASED!
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