Spring 1904:

As the Independence Day celebrations come to a close (I know some of you may not be American, so just bare with me), remember what we are celebrating. Freedom. Keep that in mind in this game as well, that why you may have a TA to guide you, they aren't the end all be all of what you have to do. They are only here to assist, not to force.

1. Germany - Back in the top spot! I see you offered England St. Petersburg, and captured Moscow. You should get back up to eight this year, which will be nice. Giving England a build might sway him back to your side, as I can see the distrust he has towards France by the self bounce in London, although some would just note that as cautious. You've got Austria on your boarders more than ever now, so I hope you've been maintaining a good relationship with him through out this game. Remember that you are a Western nation, and in the West lies your key to victory. Keep up the good work.

2. Austria - At first, I saw your moves as a delayed hedgehog where you attacked everything around you, but now I look at it as trying to get the jump on Italy and aiding Russia, which if so, you certainly did. A build will be welcome here, as if you are starting a war on Italy, keep in mind they are supposed to be a naval power. Someone will have to fill that vacuum.

3. France - While England growing seems to be good for the E/F, the fact that Germany allowed it may be a bad sign. That paired with you still being at a stalemate due to you building in Paris instead of Marseilles puts you at the number two spot. I would be talking to England to figure out what is going on between him and Germany. Not much else to say, as there wasn't much you could do.

4. England - Congratulations on another build coming to you. Not sure if you have jumped ship to an E/G instead of an E/F, but you are growing, which I like. Remember, you need to convoy that army out of England, and on to the mainland, regardless of who you are working with. I'm looking forward to seeing what this coming turn yields for you.

5. Italy - It's looking like you are going to lose Venice to Austria this turn. It's a good thing France didn't come after you like I expected. You have your forces very split up, which won't be good when you have to go on the defensive. Make sure you are talking to Russia to see if you can get any assistance, as he looks like your only way out. Only time will tell if you will keep falling.

6. Russia - Ouch. Back down again, due to the loss of another two home centers. While you may take Ankara this turn, it will be crippling to only have one center with which new units can be built. I'm not sure if you are still working with Austria or not due to his move to Galicia, but all his other moves seem to signal he is coming to aid in your defense. You certainly need to work with someone who can help you in the North if you will ever see your home again. Good luck.

7. Turkey - It looks like you are about to meet your maker. Sometimes, no matter now much press you write, what strategies you come up with, the people around you have decided that you must die. Whenever you lose, make sure you go out gracefully, don't blow up global about multis or other types of cheating. I will keep you in my rankings through out the rest of the match, however you won't have anything written about you. Unless you pull a miracle this turn.

Why was Austria accepting support into Smyrna rather than moving to Ionian Sea the single worst move on the board this year?

Fall 1904
I apologize for missing a season. I typed a spring message three times and lost my first message, uad my computer freeze up on the second and got interrupted on the third. I will spend a great deal of time elaborating on fall moves but will include thoughts on my original ideas from the spring. Each player should have a very sizeable piece of commentary for this season. To begin with, for the Spring, I really felt that this was the forst SoW game I have seen that really felt like 7 veteran players making moves on a map. I liked most of the things I saw from all players, even if it didn't turn out like they wanted. The fall season was the same way. Several players really performed well. Each of you should take those words as a compliment regardless of your situation.

The West
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Germany--You had a really stellar season. For the Spring, I commented that the best move you made was supporting England into StP. This helped buy you an ally, and to be honest, some of the best things in this game are intangible. Sure, a build is great, but it can be far greater to win an enemy over as an ally after years of bitter fighting, move the right way and foil a stab, prevent a player from soloing, or survive as a 1 sc country for 4 years to become a pivotal unit and end up with part of a draw. These sorts of things are far and away better than gaining one center because these things have lasting effects that can be game-changing. I also like the move to take Moscow and the build will pay out well, although what to build at this point, and what to do with it is another marltter entirely. Now, to your west, I said in the spring and it still holds true for the fall that the stalemate line is bitter-sweet. You and France have both locked down the line and can keep each other out indefinitely and both of you will require something of England to break beyond it. So far, it seems that you have the upper hand in the matter. In the mean time, you'll have to decide where to go next. I had thoughts in the spring that you might possibly stab England at StP, take the build for yourself and have a fleet and army duo coming into play to rule the west. However, while it was a possibility I had thought could happen, I didn't expect it. As it is, you will have to decide where to go in the meantime. For builds, I believe an army in Berlin will take place.

England--This season also really rocked for you. I had congratulated you on getting into StP, finding a player to work with and doing all of this in the wake of a really rough first couple of years when it looked like you would be the first guy out in the west. Unlike KingRishard, I had placed you in the second spot over France in the spring and you kept that through the fall. Your cooperative with Germany turned out positive and you still probably have the pick of who to work with in the next year. Having said that, I have to talk about the fleet move to StP instead of convoying an army over. I know an army on the Island is protective, but it's really limiting. England is one of two countries far removed from the stalemate line and this is the biggest opponent in to an English solo that turns it into a draw. One thing that any new player should learn quickly and any experienced player should already know is that if someone wants to solo, they HAVE to cross the 17-17 stalemate line, and they have to do it before players on the other side can mobilize to stop it from happening. For England, this occurs in primarily one of two spots: the Mediterranean in taking Tun, and Russia in taking War or Mos. There are other less common places such as Rome, Naples and Vienna, but as a general rule, England takes these locations with armies or with the help of armies and fleets either cannot do it or have difficulty doing it alone. At this stage in the game, your easiest crossing point was definitely at War or Mos but the fleet in StP means you have given up on this. Other locations are still a possibility but it means that you have to eliminate Germany or France entirely to do so before you have the opportunity to do so. This isn't likely to happen and you're not pumping out armies fast enough to capitalize on this. Now Tunis is a possibility and requires fleets and can be done with only fleets, but the fact that the east is going to reduce its first player pretty soon and possibly a second before the west can ice their first player means that you probably won't have that opportunity. To me, the fleet in StP was essentially you saying "I'm not interested in going for the solo". Maybe you're not and maybe a draw, given your rough first few years is a blessing and you'll take what you can get, but each player should always have solo eyes on at all times. But, this is a game where anything can happen. For builds, I see an army in Lvp.

France--Not the year you were probably expecting, which is unfortunate given the things you sacrificed in order to get where you are. I do agree with some of the moves you made as you tried to probe the stalemate line looking for weak points, I do disagree a bit with the fall move to Spa sc. This move made absolutely no sense. It gives me the impression that you're attacking Italy but could have been defensive in nature to protect Mar from an Italian retreat. If it was indeed an attack on Italy, it's the most ineffective move I have seen. It pressures nothing, can't convoy an army, and will end up being recalled to the MAO before it can be useful. If it was defensive, then moving Par to Gas does the same thing because without English help, you're not getting across that line without a German screw up. If you had spent your year convoying an army to North Africa or even using the fleet to move to WES, I'd have given you some props. However, this was a year of pretty much nothing and will cost you a bit more than you wanted, especially with England and Germany both gaining a build.

The East
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Austria--You're way out on top and in style. In the spring I anticipated gaining one build and a possible IT and a Russian build, but instead we see two Austrian builds which took some clear diplomacy and I would have you in first place for the map if I was ranking this on that level. You took advantage of the out-of-place Italian, which in my opinion was a bit of a no-brainer, but a good stab for you to make and I know that good things aren't done coming to your door. There will definitely be a fleet build in Tri and probably an army in Bud this winter.

Russia--In the spring, I really applauded your moves because you were going to have a build in the last Turkish center to offset losses this year. Instead, you give your build to Austria, flee from a center to retreat home where a German army was not predictably going to move, and essentially doom yourself pretty quickly. All game, it has been apparent that you have been on edge and I don't know if it's your personality to always assume the worst in this game, or if this is just not your best game but you have to be self-minded. By giving Austria a second center instead of you getting it, you're destroying your chances in making any future progress. I had suspected that you migh be in a position to stalemate western countries out of the east, but at this point, I suspect that you'll be a road bump. Your disband will be probably the Con fleet.

Italy--Ouch. In the spring, I anticipated a build to offset your loss and I also thought you might have been talking to Turkey to work out some sort of deal to support him into Con. However, the fall proved to be different. Now, you've got Austria in a very dominant position over you and you're powerless to stop it. In my mind, the stab was pretty clear but might not have been avoidable even if you kept one more unit closer to home. You had a really tough break this year with everyone supporting Austria and not the underdog, even if it didn't benefit them to do so. I hope this next year generates you something.

Turkey--In the spring I had written you off as DOA going into the fall. My prediction was that Italy would get a build and Russia would take the other unless you had worked out a deal with Italy so the both of you might have a chance. Instead, you displayed a shocker with support for Austria into Smy indicating that Italy wasn't up for negotiation but Austria was. It means that someone in that group is successfully reachimg out and you still may have a comeback up your sleeve. That means that I owe you a hearty congrats and hope that next year will prove just as good for you. It goes to show that when someone doesn't clamp up and continues to play their hand, the game might sometimes play in your favor. Now, you're definitely not out of the woods yet, so keep the press rolling.

I'll take some time to tackle uclabbs question/comment and later today come back to MajorMitchell.

I'm going to have to disagree with your assessment. The worst move this season was the French move to Spa sc from the MAO because it accomplished less than nothing. The Austrian move accomplished quite a bit more. First, it showed Italy that Austria is working with both Turkey and Russia and not against them and while that is going on, he has less to worry about in one of them switching sides and working with the Italian. Next, Italy has to disband and still recall his fleet which means he doesn't have to keep as much on his east to keep Italy from pestering him on two sides. Third, he will have a fleet coming in which gives him equal naval power and a greater army presence. He still has plenty of options available. Would it be nice to be in the ION? Sure. It's the best southern sea zone. However, forcing an Italian disband this year instead of next year isn't bad either so I ddon't disagree with the move. I would have been in the ION and given the center to Russia which accomplishes both, but it's a far cry from the single worst move of the season.

Bump

I intend to post later, I just wrapped up a four hour live game that was quite exhausting.

I hope KingRishard will take a crack at my question, as I fairly strongly disagree with Tru about the answer

I'm interested to see what he has to say as well.

As a side note, I didn't list my thoughts on the Italian destruction. I believe it will be his Turkish army.

Bumpity bumpity bump

Winter 04 There's only one build I feel is questionable, so I'll comment on that and it's England. The presence of yet another fleet means that German gains will reach a point that will far exceed your own. You have way too many fleets that will simply spend time holding and supporting holds instead of making progress and you're generating more to replace the ones that will be busy doing absolutely nothing. The fleet, to me, shows lack of ambition in this game. Sorry if this offends you, but it does. The other builds and destructions seem fine.

Sorry I haven't been able to get to my commentary for the fall yet. I was going to discuss the moves and the builds at the same time, so I waited for builds to go through. It's been a long day, so I will post my thoughts in the morning, including those on uclabb's question before the Spring concludes.

Geez. I go on break at work to look at the spring moves and think about the commentary, and there's still 45 minutes left of the season. Get with it guys :)

Just want to throw in really quick, thanks a ton to the professors so far. The commentary has been great!

Also a quick note to all the students. You might want to consider starting to write down your thoughts about this game. You don't have to post a EOG summery at the end, but I would appreciate it if everyone could write at least a little bit about anything you learned, thought was helpful, confused you, etc. Thanks!

Fall 1904:

Okay, so it was a lot later than morning. My apologies. First off, Austria accepting support into Smyrna instead of moving to Ionian Sea. If he didn't know that Ionian would be open, I wouldn't say it was the worst move of the season. If he did know, then it is. I'll discuss more in the Austria section.

1. Austria - While gaining two builds is nice and stabbing Italy is going well, the fact people bring up your move to Smyrna as the worst move is interesting and makes me wonder how well thought out the Italian stab is. So say you didn't know Ionian was open. Then you couldn't very well sail through and put more pressure on the Boot of Europe could you? Given the bounce in Aegean, I could see why you'd think something similar would happen, and if so, reducing Italy and build up your own troops is great. By the way, nice job convincing Russia and Turkey that you needed the build more than they did. If you knew Ionian would be open, why not take it? You'd have a straight shot on Tunis, which now you don't as by the time you could get close, France or Italy could already be there. The two Turko-Italian units aren't any bother to you, making it that much easier for you to take over the homeland of Italy, and leading to more total builds and the Godfather would be stuck watching his home burn from the shores of Anatolia. But, we have no idea how the presses, so all my tactical speak means nothing if you didn't have the intel. Regardless, good job on the builds. Keep up the good work.

2. Germany - France has put up a stalemate but it's good you are still making gains in Russia. You pulling the 2v1 off of you was the best thing you could do. Good move not building a fleet and screwing up your relationship with England. I think you can afford to be patient while England sails around France to reduce the stalemate, then you can rush in. If you get tired of waiting, you are still in a nice position in the East over the line and could for sure have some say so on what is going on there. Remember though that there is one higher on the board than you, they are in the East, and helping the leader is usually the worst thing you can do.

3. England - I'm agreeing with Tru on this one. As we've said for awhile, you need that army on the mainland. St. P is a great place for it to go right now. While it make Germany uncomfortable, it could also help him be defensive, so it shouldn't offend. I don't have a problem with the fleet, as you are moving on France, and England is supposed to be the naval power of the West. As long as you can get that one army somewhere else, things should turn out good for you. Not much to say, just keep making progress as you continue your rise from you initial mistakes.

4. France - If you were going to move on Italy, you really should have built in Marseilles last build phase. You might have some say in Tunis if you keep going, but you have English fleets to deal with, so I'm not sure if I will see it happening. It's entirely possible if you are playing risk. I did say that if things are slow in one area, move to another, but this is kind of a delayed reaction to that. You've got a lot on your plate right now dealing with Germany and England, but the West has been 2v1 the whole game. Just the alliances switching around. Hope you can turn the tables once more.

5. Russia - I don't really understand why you didn't take out Turkey there. You needed a build to stay even, but you choose instead to help the biggest guy on the field. If you are going to survive, you have got to get more units on the field, especially when you need to reclaim your homeland. The only reason I can see to help Austria is because he offered help with Germany, which I doubt to see.

6. Italy - It seems your Turkish adventure is a lost cause. If France is also coming for you, then I smell blood in the water. You'll need to talk to those around Austria to see if you can get someone to come to your aid, as there is honestly little you can do tactically to save yourself.

7. Turkey - Wow. You are still live. Nice work! I don't know how you did it, but you did, so for that you should be proud. However, things can change in just a single season, and considering I'm posting this without looking at what happened in Spring yet, I'm not sure if you have continued to work at staying alive. As long as you can keep up the press, you might can stick around in this one. Good luck.

And now I see how Spring 1905 moves were. I will have to write another commentary soon.

I like what you said KingRishard, although I want to point out that if Ionian Sea were going to be occupied (and so the move there would fail), then Adriatic would have been open in the spring which means Austria would have had the overwhelming as well. The way it is now, (especially had France not dove for Tunis), Italy can easily hold off for 2 more years, which is plenty of time for one of Russia or Germany to find time to move on Austria. The bottom line is that when you have a back breaking move, you have to take it. The Austria fleet (in Trieste) should have moved this year as well. Arguably Smyrna should have as well, but the argument certainly can go either way in that case.

SPRING 1905
There were some really great moves this season by some players and in addition to this it's pretty noteworthy that no player has been eliminated and it doesn't look like someone will be eliminated this year either.

The West
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Germany--You're still on top in the west but this might change soon. You will clearly lose one center, barring an unforseen NMR, and could potentially lose more, but it's not expected. To your moves, I don't have a huge issue with them, but you're at a point where I really don't see a place for expansion. France isn't going to lose anything this season, especially not to you, and your expanded navy isn't going to get you anywhere either. Where once you were in the driver's seat, you have since moved to the back seat. I do believe you'll eventually lose War, the number of units you have bordering the stapemate line will likely mean that your position is secure if the board dynamics continue as they are.

France--At this point, you could be in a borderline second place and might replace Germany next year. Your best move was the southern fleet since it has tangible results but your northern front looks shaky at best and you've got several empty sea zones. The biggest benefit, outside of the stalemate line, is that your IRI fleet will force England to have to cover home centers instead of marching down your spine. This next year will probably be the biggest determinant of your future success.

England--While I have you at third place in the west, your position is far from poor. In fact, some could argue that out of all three western powers, you're the only one that has a stable position. To some degree, I like the army move, although I suspect that it's both late in coming and more reactionary to the commentary instead of well-timed. The remainder of your moves seem pretty reasonable. There are other advantages of your position and the best one is flexibility. While I don't anticipate a build (but also don't rule one out), you do have a wide variety of ways you can move that allow you to make the most out of positioning on the board, both with countries in the east and west. A part of me can speculate the press that very well might be going on between you and the other powers and this could give you options. Maybe the fall will be an uplifting season, but don't rush into any decision. Careful advanced planning should be going on right now to ensure a positive future. I believe this game is closer to completion than what it appears at face value.

The East
Austria--While you won't be gaining a build this season, necessarily, you are making progress. I sense that your press boxes are more active than the other players in this game. If not, something is amiss. I like the Russian support to Mos since any alliance will want to see growth out of both players to help it maintain some degree of equilibrium. I have said before and I will say it here, one thing that is vitally importantis that your ally always has a project and sees some measure of growth to dissuade a stab. Returning Mos to Russia was that sort of play. I expect next year to be a bit more lucrative.

Russia--This seems to be panning out to be a great year for you. An opponent going down at least one and you going up at least one, and more importantly, seeing the return of a home center, is a critical point for a comeback. I don't have any real quibbles about your orders this season.

Italy--Hmm. I really disagree with the support move for the Turkish unit. It might look good on paper but it really does nothing for you except allow Austria to dismantle you bit by bit. Your fleet shouod have been in the ION helping out against the Austrian threat and attaching yourself to anyone that can do something. However, there's not much your lone fleet can accomplish that far out except tie up two units controlled by two different countries. In addition, the fact that France had a fleet in Spa sc should have alerted you to the idea he was looking for a free center, and now he has found it in Tunis meaning you will have to ditch that fleet this year. Had it protected Tun, you might have been able to persuade France to return home. As for your other moves, they seem fine.

Turkey--still hangin in there, it's nice to see you still have someone that cares to help you out. I believe that this luck will run out next year with the Italian disband. Oh well, you had a rough run and a glimmer of hope. I still wish you well and applaud you for not giving in. The fact that you've had some help up until now really speaks volumes about the fact that you chose to pursue avenues diplomatically instead of wither and die. I believe that this game might possibly have helped you more than most even though it left you in a sour spot. I wish you well next year.

Bump

Spring 1905:

Everyone is still around. Impressive. A sign of a game that could drag out awhile. I hope there is a lot of behind the scenes press going on. Let's see where everyone is at.

1. Austria - Your progress is steady, but you've got Germany looking like he wants to come across the line at you. While you probably don't have any builds this year, I do expect at least one next year. Not much to say. Keep up the good work.

2. Germany - Losing a build isn't helping you to reclaim your top spot. I don't expect you to lose a second one this turn, but you moving to the line on Austria signals you intend to fight the biggest guy on the board, pretty much by yourself. Not always the smartest idea, but if you can do some convincing around the board, you might find allies. You aren't getting anywhere with France, and they are growing while you fall. I wouldn't be surprised if they jump you in the rankings soon.

3. France - A build for you is good right here. I'm expecting a fleet in Brest to contend with England, as you have Germany on lock down. Keep holding the line.

4. England - Finally you convoy the army, although I expect that is due to Tru and I's prodding more than anything, as he said. I have a good idea of where it is going. Since Russia will be able to hold the line in the East, you need to make some progress in the West. Seeing as France has few fleets and you have many, you be the judge of where to go. I don't expect a build this turn.

5. Russia - You got back a home center! Nicely done. While you should have an English army on the move to try and change that, you're build in Sevastopol should be able to defend adequately. Not much to say here either. You and Austria are working out well it seems.

6. Italy - At this rate, you may be losing before Turkey, if not, at the same time. You should have gotten your fleet out of there. Some people say "Divide and Conquer". For you it's been "Divided We Fall". With France taking Tunis, you'll lose a unit, which I expect to be your useless Turkish fleet. I also expect to see you at 0 by Fall of 1906. If not, you'll be at 1. All I can say is good job in slowing Austria's advance. There is a difference between slowing and stopping.

7. Turkey - Glad to see you are still playing. As long as you have that unit, you can do something for someone. You are for sure making it another year, just keep the press up to see if you can last longer. Good luck.

FALL 1905
Ooh hoo HOO what a season! Some very "surprise" twists this season made it my favorite scene to this point. There will be a bit to say after this one.

The West
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France--Back in the top spot among western countries, I have more to say for you than many others this season. I sort of like the move to the ENG this season. Clearly you knew England would have to cover Lvp with one fleet and try for the ENG with the other. I think you would have been a bit worse for wear had you moved instead to the NAO because the ENG is pretty critial zone. The support hold at Bel makes sense as does taking Tun, so both of those were sound choices, although one didn't pan out. The one I like the best was the cooperative move on Mun between you and Austria. I'm not sure whose idea it was, but when I said Germany probably wouldn't lose another center, this was the exception I had in mind. I didn't want to mention the possible AF move on Mun to break the line because it would have had some serious reprocussions in telling the two of you the best way to advance, but I also didn't mention it because I didn't know if the two of you would have done it. It was very nicely played and by far the best move I have seen you make in this game. This, coupled with the fact that Germany has a very sensitive destruction choice to make will really make life miserable for him, and for that, you deserve the prime position in the west. I really feel that this season has placed you in a really great spot for a number of reasons. Now, you do have your positional downsides. Your nation is currently like a bucket that has a hole in the bottom but is also sitting under a running faucet. The hole isn't a big one and so the water from the faucet is filling your bucket faster than it can drain out the bottom, but the downside is that if the faucet is shut off, you're gonna leak. What I mean by that colorful analogy is that in the north, you've got some holes that are difficult to fill. You have two too fleets manning the waters and a host of English ones where England happened to over produce that will soon pose a problem. Your moves this season made some great ground, bit it's these holes that could cause you to falter if your intake ever slows down. The south still might generate some growth, but it also might not. For your build this year, I'm predicting F Bre.

Germany--You've dropped to a tense second. Part of that is due to your loss and France's gain, but had France only taken Tun, maintained Bel and not pushed into Mun, I'd be more willing to possibly consider you in first. However, the loss of Mun is not equally mitigated by the gain of Bel because Mun is not only a home center but it's also a point in holding the line. One of the things that can make Germany a great country to play lies in its ability to defend against France, and for that reason, the two make a great pair, however, it suffers heavioy once a unit makes it into a home center, moreso than most nations (barring Austria, maybe). To illustrate, let's look at the layout: By S02, Germany typically controls Den, Hol, Mun, Ber and Kie. Later, if he is doing well, he may also control Swe. Now, let's assume an enemy breaks through your line and lands in a home center. There are 5 possible outcomes and I'll touch on these briefly: (a) a fleet hits Kie: if that occurs, you have to force it out. When it is dislodged,especially in the spring, it can retreat to Ber, Hol or Den, all of which are centers or it can retreat to HEL or BAL which each border 3 centers. This can make dislodging the fleet almost as bad as it hanging in Kie. (b) an army hits Kie: equally as devastating as a fleet, it still has a crap ton of retreat options including 4 centers, Ruh which borders 3, Sil which borders 2 and Pru which borders 1. (c) a fleet hits Ber: not as bad as Kie, Berlin allows the fewest useful retreat options for a fleet, namely BAL and Kie. (d) an army hits Ber: the army can retreat to only a few useful locations, but is better than the fleet. The army can get into Kie or Mun or retreat to Sil to border 2 centers, although one would have been occupied and only Mun needs to be considered as long as youre not moving out of Ber. (e) an army hits Mun. This is worse than Ber and in some ways worse than Kie, especially in your situation. A retreat from Mun can go to either Ber or Kie which are both home centers, and if it retreats to Kie in the spring, it other options in its retreat from there at Den, Ber or Hol, or it can retreat to Ruh if forced out in the spring and still threaten 3 more centers. Now, this is a generalization because Germany will have other units nearby that can cover some of those better retreat options, but it illustrates some of the issues Germany faces when an enemy unit lands home. Other nations simply don't have that headache to that degree because German gains are so close to one another with so few natural barriers. I believe your destruction will come from Swe.

England--Simply, I like the moves you made this season. By moving the army to StP, you can return a fleet home to fight the clearly inferior French navy without having to risk a center to an eastern power. moving in on your goods. I also like the support of Germany into Bel, although if it was you, then you'd be sitting in one delicious spot right now. I will reserve additional commentary for you in future seasons because I don't want my thoughts to give anything away, but suffice it to say, your third place spot isn't at all bad.

I apologize for cutting this short but I will get to the east early tomorrow. Its late, I'm tired and my cell battery is dying.

Bump

As promised, here is my commentary on the east. It's a bit delayed but chock full of goodies. Also, it has been brought to my attention that there is a typo in my German commentary on the destruction prediction. This should read Fin and not Swe. Thanks to the individual who brought that to my attention.

The East
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Austria--Clearly, you're the undisputed top dog of this sphere, and topping the board, according to KingRishard, and there were several things you did really well and one predicament yoh find yourself in that I will talk at length in the commentary of another country. As I said in the French commentary above, I loved the support into Mun. I didn't expect the move but saw it as a possible action. This was a more superior move to simply forcing your way into Italy a bit more. You have bought a French ally in one move by giving him a center over his opponent instead of jockeying for a more advantageous position that wouldn't net you anything tangible. You also coupled this move with a second move on the eastern front to be the key player in a German downfall by delivering two centers to two allies. This caused Germany to finally have to face a true two-front war. If there wad a move you made that I really felt should have been different, its A Gre -> Alb because the army isn't going to do a lot there. It is better served in Bul because you have a situation with a Turkish thorn. At any rate, no builds this season, but in a stronger position nonetheless.

Russia--You're the clear number two and gaining a build will help hold the line or apply pressure to the eastern front of Germany. You didn't have a whole lot of options to decide from on your short to-do list and support holds were the obvious choice. Not a bad season overall, but don't get comfortable because there's more game to play. The build choice will be A Sev. If it's a fleet, I'll have some things to say.

Italy--Marginally higher than the last place, I still like your position over Turkey because you get to do something. Not much more, but it's something. The fleet move toward home is a bit late and it cost you a center but the game's not over. This year's destruction is a bit tricky but I'll predict F ADR will go.

Turkey--I really love your position. Why? Because it's really like watching an episode of Laurel and Hardy or Laverne and Shirley or some other comedic group that finds themselves in a hilarious situation. Not you, mind you, but your army is making an entire fool of two fleets. It did so for an entire year and could go on for another year. Let's take a closer look. The basis is that you have two fleets trying to take your last center but because of your position, either fleet is entirely incapable of supporting the other fleet into Ank to eliminate you from the game. As long as you log on and click 'Ready', for a hold or move action (you could make the result entirely random) action, one unit has successfully locked down two fleets. Now, the buck doesn't stop there. In order to oust you, a third unit has to be dispatched to your location to lend support because if one of the fleets moves, you can retreat into the vacant center. Also, the third unit dispatched is at least a year out and has to move in the opposite direction of effective combat just to eliminate one lone army, and then spend another year or longer getting back to where it was. Essentially it means that one lone obnoxious army is going to tie uo two fleets for over two years between moving into position, forcing you out, and moving away to return to the useful fight, or tie up 3 units for a slightly shorter time. I would really have to nominate you 'hemorrhoid of the game' and the next time I'm facing elimination, I want to go out like THIS. Very very nice.

Bump

Bump

Fall 1905:

There were some moves here that I did not expect at all. Quite a lot to talk about for this one.

1. Austria - While you don't have a build this turn, you are on top for now. I expect you to gain one from Italy next year, as he can't keep you out forever. I see you are refocusing the majority of your efforts on Germany, and it's quite the target to choose. You already have Russia in your pocket, now France is with you as well. The game at this moment seems to be an E/G vs an A/R/F, considering Italy and Turkey as none influences. As seen in typical 3v1 in the East or 2v1 in the West, I expect your team to win, unless the alliances shift more, or there is a tactical error. Keep up the good work.

2. France - Very well done! I didn't see the Munich build coming for you. I also liked you keeping out England of the channel. This will slow him down and allow you time to get your navy built and in position, while he drags his fleets to the front. Clearly your press with Austria has been of great benefit to you. I do wonder how far the two of you will take things in this game. I expect a fleet in Brest and probably one in Marseilles as well.

3. Germany - Losing Munich was one of the worst things that could have happened to you, and I'm not sure why you allowed it to happen. Why not support hold it with Silesia? No matter, it is gone now, and you'll have to work to get it back, very carefully, as Tru went into lengthy detail about. No need for me to speak further I expect your destroy will be the fleet in Finland. I'm not sure what Tru meant by expecting it to come from Swe, seeing as there is nothing there. Perhaps he means the same as me.

4. England - You've finally got that army into position, allowing you to send another fleet towards France, but with him gaining two builds, it may be a bit late. You've got to expect that one of those will be a fleet in Brest, and him keeping you out of the Channel is bad for you. I'm guessing you offered Belgium to Germany to counteract his loss of Moscow, but you two must not have foreseen the loss of Munich as well.

5. Russia - Seeing that Sevastopol is the only home center open, you'll be building there, and an army at that, which, seeing this is little to defend from at the moment, will probably go to finish Turkey. Not a lot to say for you.

6. Italy - Good job keeping out Austria, but at this point, you are only delaying the inevitable. It is even more clear now that Austria is working in tandem with France, which is bad news for you. Assuming your destroy will be the West Med fleet.

7. Turkey - You just keep battering away at Smyrna. All you can really do is continue to annoy those large than you while you wait for them to come and get rid of you. Right now your goal should be to last longer than Italy, as I see a 6th place finish for you entirely possible. Good luck.

I'll say that while I didn't expect to see the AF jump on Mun, I did see it as a possibility for the simple reason that the pairing of A and F seemed logical and if they were going to work together, attacking Mun seemed like a way to solidify a relationship. Austria already showed he had anti-German intentions by making moves at the line and helping Russia into Mos.

That said, I didn't expect the move because I figured Austria was going to be more selfish with the Tyr army by squeezing it into Italian territory with double support.

I also agree with KingRishard's assessment about the Russian army.

I will post commentary hopefully later tonight.

SPRING 1906
The power struggles as we draw nearer to what could be the end of the game. Normally, gakes are broken down into phases where alliances are formed that last into the start of the next phase, players are eliminated, and countries jockey for positions that will allow them to solo. Players should think one phase ahead to produce a skeleton of where they think they shouod be to produce positive results. This game is essentially entering the pate midgame with no eliminations and no one in a likely solo position. There are often a variety of warning signs that a solo might occur. Players crossing the stalemate line, players having a large gap in the number of centers they control vs the number of the closest player to them, and sometimes a position that hasn't produced anything tangible yet. This last one is often in the form of a potential lethal stab. I don't really see any of those here and the game will most probably end in a 3- or 4-way draw.

The West
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France--The top spot is a close call when based on solely center count but given position, I see France as the clear choice in the west. The spring moves produced a possible build for you and no one else in the west is really a contender for your spot. On the flip side, don't take things for granted. I myself tend to see things in this game under a slightly negative bent, which can be a big downfall, but also keeps me alert to possibilities that could occur as the game goes on. I say this because I see something that could change your game that could occur next year or after.

Germany--Unfortunately, a majority of what I have to say you probably won't like to read. In some respects, I like your position even less than I like England's which would put you last in my rankings. This is saying quite a bit because I'm almost picking a 5 center country over a 7 center one. Some might say that this is a natural thing because England's 5 are more secure than your 7, and while that's true, it's not the end of the story. I have seen you simply hold the last 3 or 4 seasons against the stalemate line while France started testing ways to get through and now he is moving his units freely without worry that you'll make any retaliatory moves, and to date, it has cost you not only Mun, but you could have been sitting in Bur this season threatening Mar, Par, or better yet--Gas--which borders 4 sc's. Now, whenever I mention things a player should have done or should be doing, it's often too late because everyone in the game has read this, and the window of opportunity has closed. Most SoW players tend to react to my press instead of think "I missed this opportunity, what can I do now that the board might not expect". This year, you're looking at the loss of another center and will likely drop you to the bottom in the west for the first time. You're great when you're on top but when you're falling, you begin to lose control. I still think you can pull things around for the better, so good luck.

England--Your moves this last season were alright but I would have liked to see an aggressive move to the ENG because the FAR is only going to ignore you for so long. While it's conceivable that the game could end in a 4-way, your needs include planning for a 3-way where your position isn't secure. A move to the ENG had one of a couple scenarios: either a bouncec from Bre or success. Had it succeeded, France would either have a fleet in MAO and Wal, which isn't terrible for you, or in MAO and Bre as he has now, which is better. This appears as France is trying to buy your neutrality by staying away, or he's moving to maintain key sea zones for himself and you're not playing aggressive. If you're going to solo in any game, one thing I've learned the hard way is that you have to play aggressively. This game doesn't wait for the passive player to solo. As I said, I don't think your moves were bad, just not aggressive in the way I feel you should have been moving all game long. After this season, I don't think we will see you in a solid bottom position, because as a careful player that you've shown yourself to be, caution does not typically lead to last-place play. However, having a slow-moving, careful nature does not lead to top positions either. I say this as a player that also gets caught playing cautiously from time to time and see myself in draws where I have 15+ centers where I should have soloed.

The East
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Austria--You appear to have spent this season setting yourself up for a possible gain. The moves were much what I expected, but I really don't see how locking down both your fleets is conducive to a solo. If anyone on the board has solo potential, it's you, but the play I see is as someone playing for the draw. You've got one fleet guarding one center far from the action and not poised to stab, and you've got another locked in Tri. If I were Italy in this one, I'd be keeping my fleet where it's at in the ADR (although the ADR was my declared disband--more on that later) and make sure you don't get anywhere or produce another one. I think you've lost eyes for the solo. I do believe this game will turn out to be a draw, so the supports you're giving to your neighbors are as good a move as any. I anticipate that the three of you will finish Germany off within 4 years unless something else shouod interrupt the progress you've been making.

Russia--I like most of what I saw this last season. My guess is that you will reclaim War this year and StP to follow. I like the move to Lvn. I believe very strongly that every player should learn to cross the 17-17 line given the opportunity because it's next to impossible to do it later. Plus, even if you're not going to solo, having breached that line will often solve a lot of headaches down the road. My beef with your moves comes in the hold of the southern fleet. I understand that yours and Austria's fleet can't do much, but that's the problem--they aren't doing anything. By now you could have sailed the fleet out into open waters, popped it for an army build or used it to give an army or another unit support into the last Turkish center. Having two units tied down to do nothing is less than worthless...it's counter-productive. Taking care of this small issue wouod have you in pristine condition.

Italy--It looks like you have about one year left. The army unit movements were alright, but the fleet I have an issue with. At this point, Austria and France can manhandle you to death and locking up your units won't produce anything. Your best bet would have been to send that fleet into open waters. If it could threaten Gre or even better, help England into the MAO, he might have been willing to support you into a center in exchange for the extra unit. You could easily defend against the lone French fleet with one of your armies. surely Germany or England would put up a price for your available unit. My suggestion for you is to try to think beyond your immediate circumstances and see where you can be best put to use. Most of the time, someone is willing to buy your unit.

Turkey--Ooh, I gotta disagree with the order this season. While on a grand scale, it probably doesn't matter, seeing the Russian army build, I would have ordered my unit to Arm to bounce him out. If the move was successful, then it probably means he vacated Sev and you now border two centers. I find that when I'm reduced to one unit, I make myself available to anyone that can use it. By moving to Arm, Russia would have to issue an order to protect Sev which means he doesn't get a German build, which means Germany keeps 7 units on the map to get himsepf into a better position. Having a unit threaten another center doesn't mean you have to move against that center, but merely make your opponent believe there's a good possibility you might. These kind of orders alter the way a player moves and reacts to situations around the board.

bump