Well, we are in a tough spot now. This is a little lengthy, but I want to put it all out there since I don't have faith all of you will go back and reread. Here goes.
Analysis: Balduran
D1: Started on Moscow and switched to ND with about an hour left in the day, to put the ND wagon tied with snowy for the lead. After his vote, it was 4 snowy, 4 ND, 3 TrPrado, 2 MF. Instead of staying on Moscow, which was a legitimate wagon (though probably with limited momentum since Moscow wasn't participating - and thus there wasn't really a case on him besides pressure votes) he moved to ND the lawyer, when we know that snowy was town. He looks very towny D1 - with the only potential for him being scum is that earlier he said there was no way he we vote for snowy D1 - so he couldn't justify that move. That being said however, he could have moved to TrPrado since with about 5 hours left he said that he could be convinced to vote Prado. If Balduran was scum, I see no reason for him not to vote Prado and try to save lawyer. Overall, very good looking D1 for Bald.
D2: Voted ghug prior to the HR fakeclaim. This was a follow through on suspicion of ghug from D1. Again, looks pretty solid. After the fakeclaim Bald was hesitant but jumped onto Balki (who was a townread of his earlier). Didn't post in the last 16 hours of the phase, so not much to go on there. He stayed on Balki throughout though, so again some more townpoints (plus he put an endvote out before he left).
N2: This is a little odd. In his only post of the night, he (not strongly, but still) advocated that the vig shoot HR. Doesn't look great in hindsight, but I don't think its very damning.
D3: He starts by buying into Balki's vig claim, which while odd, I think looks towny more than anything. I think scum Balduran would have been more hesitant to openly buy into Balki's claim like that - especially with two scum already gone. He also spends some time defending snowy, saying his abrasive playstyle is not alignment indicative. He votes peterlund with about 3 hours left in the day, to make the wagons 4 snowy, 3 peterlund, 2 Vash. He was around most of the day, at least until right before teacon claimed vig. He stayed on peterlund which I don't think is alignment indicative since it was town v town, and neither looked great anyway.
D4: Votes peter and does nothing else the rest of the day.
D5: Strongly townreads rdrivera, while Ezio and I pushed him. So he gets some town points there. He votes y2k first to tie his wagon with rdrivera for the lead, which looks pretty good. With an hour left, he flips to Jeff Kuta to make the wagons 4 y2k, 3 Jeff. This looks less good, though as I've stated numerous times, I don't think Balduran is the type to bus, so I think the vote on y2k looks good. Its possible after speaking to y2k in the mafia chat, they planned a bus, but overall I don't think this flop looks to bad.
D6: Does not participate in the brain hammer - nothing to note
D7: Voted Jeff. Now we know it was a town v town situation so there isn't too much to be gleaned from the vote.
D8: Voted rdrivera with the rest of us. Again, not much to be gleaned. Though I do find it odd that he voted rdrivera who was a pretty strong townread of his throughout the game.
I still feel pretty strongly that Bald is town.
Analysis: TrPrado
D1: His first vote is for ghug and the basis is that he thought ghug was being opportunistic in his push on snowy. At the time, snowy had 5 votes, and nobody else had more than one, so it was a fairly safe time to bus, especially since ghug was just a goon, but it seems unlikely.
He comes off his read of ghug with about 30 hours left, saying it was “too easy to read ghug as scum considering he’s an asshole whether or not he’s playing mafia.” Nobody else was on ghug, so he went back down to 0. Votes Jamie based on another nonsensical reaction test.
With 22 hours left defends ND saying “I think Oztra is towny and ND likely is as well.”
He then moves over to peter, for his read on Jamie, which Prado no longer considers scummy. Pushes peter fairly hard towards the end of the day.
With 39 minutes left says “ND and snowy I think are both town.If no one's willing to lynch peter, then is anyone up for y2k?” Which is interesting because he is defending ND – but open to lynching y2k, which reads as town to me. Tries several times to get people to jump onto y2k. I’m not sure scum TrPrado would try to save lawyer ND by bussing y2k, but its possible, especially as lynching a scumbuddy would buy hooker a lot of towncred early to coast on.
That being said, the fact that Balki was pushing Prado D1 makes me question whether he is hooker (would Balki bus hooker like that?) and our last scum.
N1: Posts reads where he scumreads ghug, HR, Ika, and teacon. Posts that he townreads both Balki and y2k.
D2: Starts by voting ghug pretty early in the day. On the surface that looks good, but I think he might be astute scum. Look at the direct quote when he votes ghug:
“Ika: The problem is you just drop a line to say someone is scum out of the blue. You did it with ND and you've not explained your reasons for wanting a ghug lynch. But I agree he's full of shit ##VOTE GHUG”
I think it’s very possible that he picked up on the fact that Ika was cop, and got ahead of the reveal. This post seems to be trying to point out how unusual it was that Ika came out and said “ghug is scum. That is my read.” Prado never changes his vote throughout the rest of the day.
He pushed ghug pretty hard D2, and posts a lengthy case on Cerry as well. When HR claimed cop, Prado did not believe it and pretty actively defended Balki. He said that he picked up the cop crumbs Bakli was leaving, which is why he townread him so strongly. Despite the fact he townread Balki, and scumread HR – he did stay on ghug which looks good. Its actually adorable how he called us all morons for believing HR, and that we were stupid for lynching “cop Balki”. If he was scum, I think he would have moved over to HR at some point, instead of staying on ghug. Though again, with ghug being goon it increases the chance that prado bussed knowing that ghug was doomed (especially if my hypothesis that he picked up on Ika’s being cop.) Really, for Prado to be scum, D2 only makes sense if he knew ghug was inevitably going to flip, and he pounced on it to earn some towncred.
D3: He starts by calling HR stupid. Then votes Balki, until Ezio comes up with his plan to let vig shoot Balki (since Balki claimed vig). Tossed a few votes around but settled on teacon for much of the day. The only real thing I find suspicious about this is that part of the reason he voted teacon is because of how hedgy he was, citing his N1 reads. This seems pretty opportunistic considering teacon had literally just subbed into the game. That’s kind of a bullshit reason to scumread someone for having null reads on a game they just entered. After teacon claims, he jumps to Balki when it looks pretty inevitable, so I’m not going to give him a bunch of towncred there.
D4: A pretty inactive day as I think he had some family stuff going on. Voted peter and stayed on until the end. I wouldn’t say its alignment indicative because peter looked pretty scummy.
D5: This is an interesting day. So N4, he posted that people who might be scum are Cerry, Vash, y2k. (p177). TrPrado isn’t particularly active D5, posting nonsense votes early, then coming back in with a few hours left in the day, voting Jeff and questioning him pretty aggressively. I get that Jeff was tunneling the shit out of obvtown snowy, but it still seemed odd that Prado was only concerned with him, considering another one of his potential scum a wagon as well. Its interesting that Prado went to Jeff instead of y2k, now that we know Jeff was town and y2k scum. After y2k flips scum, Prado flippantly says, “Kind of figured y2k would flip scum the way Jeff was defending him.” – He is just setting up a mislynch of Jeff while simultaneous trying to earn towncred by implying that he played a part in the lynch of y2k when he in fact did not. This looks scummy to me.
D6: Missed the endhammer of brain (though he did say scum was either Jeff or brain. I don’t think its alignment indicative)
D7/N6: Posts a big huge case on Jeff – which while I think had some major holes, looked like genuine towny trying to get people to vote for the person he believed to be the last scum. We know this was town v town, so not much to be gleaned.
N7: So onto this mislynch “reaction test”. I don’t really know what to make of it. I think he genuinely believes that it was a good reaction test, and that anyone who didn’t offer to sacrifice themselves looks scummy (which is idiotic as I’ve stated many times that intentionally lynching town is the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard). So I can’t tell if this was a genuine nonsensical attempt to find scum, or if he used it to try to throw shade at me and Vash for calling it dumb.
TL:DR
I think Prado has potential to be scum. Particularly after the first two days he doesn’t look all that great. The thing is that he looks really good the first two days. Balki pushed his wagon D1 and bussing the hooker is risky business, and Prado jumped all over ghug N1/early D2 – before any of the cop claim nonsense – which only makes sense as an orchestrated bus (possible) or if he caught on to the fact that Ika was cop (possible but unlikely). I believe that Prado has a higher chance of being the last scum than Balduran.
Analysis: Vash
D1: Anchor votes snowy for no real reason and stays on throughout. Complains about how much people are talking. Nothing Vash did looks very towny, but the fact that y2k planted his vote on Vash makes me think that Vash isn’t hooker. Y2k was pretty disengaged, and he didn’t start the wagon on Vash at a meaningless time. He joined the wagon to put 3 votes on Vash, when his wagon was in a position to gain momentum. Seems farily unlikely scum would do that to hooker. I’m going to look at the likelihood of scum bussing after this analysis, since at least some level of bussing was going on D1.
D2: Votes HR after narrowing the field down to those that didn’t vote ND and those that would target demon. Seems pretty logical. Once HR claims, Vash moves over to Balki, though with some hesitance. Seems pretty genuine to me. Fights to the very end claiming that Balki is the correct lynch instead of ghug, which again looks pretty good.
N2: Advocated that vig shoot HR. Which looks bad in isolation, but considering how he advocated lynching Balki instead of ghug, I think this was misguided town. He also thinks they both may be scum, which while wrong – I think points to someone who is basically thinking out loud trying to make sense of the game.
D3: Started by endhammering Balki, but unvoted when Balki claimed vig. Basically saying that the real vig if it wasn’t Balki would take care of it. Votes snowy sort of out of the blue, but with the vote tied and an hour left moves to teacon (which is consistent since he was townreading peter throughout to this point.) After teacon claimed vig, he moved back to Balki. Nothing very scummy.
N3: Posts some more analysis that looks genuine(p. 148) claiming that D1 makes the most sense if snowy and I are scum. While we know that snowy was town (and I know that I am town), I think the analysis was again natural and coming from a place of actually trying to solve the game. At this point with the likes of peterlund and rivera coming under heat, it would have been easier for scum to latch onto those ideas rather than relooking at D1 and pursuing reads that had no momentum. Townpoints.
D4: Not very active, but was against the peter lynch. Wanted to lynch snowy instead. I don’t feel this looks towny, and am a little concerned that he was so inactive on a day where he felt like town was making a mistake lynching peter. His lack of activity looks scummy since it was town v town and scum really would want peter to die (since he could then easily continue to pursue his scumread of snowy). To me this day looks the worst for Vash.
D5: Starts the day with and end vote on y2k. This looks good. He was still suspicious of snowy, but thought this was the correct move considering y2k may be scum and the info it would give him to continue his D1 analysis. I don’t think scum Vash would bus here when y2k was in real danger, and he had an easy excuse to vote snowy. He eventually gets into it with Jeff, and votes him when he and rdrivera were the two lead wagons. He comes back and votes y2k to break the tie between himself and y2k, so I won’t give him a ton of credit for that. In fact, this whole day is weird for vash considering how he endvoted y2k early, and then part of his case on Jeff is that y2k was the desired counterwagon D1 for scum. Ask him more about this day.
D6: Endhammers brain.
D7: Votes Jeff after rereading and sharing his reads. Says he isn’t confident in the vote of Jeff, but he will look at some others. We know this was town v town, so not much to be learned from the vote.
D8: Voted rdrivera
Overall, nothing really sticks out to me as scummy about Vash. He seems genuine. He seems like he is trying to solve the game. The only real question marks are his D5 with the y2k flip flop and suggesting that vig shoot Balki.
Napoleonic variant. RELEASED!
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