So this end game is entirely messy and not an easy solve. To that end I need to explain a few things:
First and foremost, my strategy. Intentional mislynch. I got the idea from rdrivera last night when he said that lynch should be between himself and Balduran. I made it overtly said and tweaked it to be myself and snowy. I also added the detail of mylo, even though we aren't set to go to mylo.
A big part of me doing this was a reaction test.
A reaction test?? It's D8!!
Not an easy game to read. I was stuck N7 and had too many town reads.
I wanted to see how people responded to the idea. I got snowy to agree to it, volunteering himself to be mislynched, and rdrivera tried to put himself in place of either of us. His argument is that he and I are both greater assets to town than he could be. The way he's played D8 indicates he still is on board with that. It should've been long obvious that he's town. I've come to believe he's still the best lynch as far as getting the easiest mislynch out of town to prevent us getting bogged down at lylo. The only other reaction N7 was Tom's total dismissal of the idea. Vash dismissed it earlier today in a similar fashion, and Balduran said that under different circumstances he could agree to it, feeling that it's best if there's a clear singular weak link in town.
Then EoN came and a certain detail was quite unexpected. Tom didn't die, but rather snowy.
Tom was the most obvtown around, so his death was the one we expected.
Vash pointed out it could be a game of WIFOM. That alone is obviously not worth scum reading someone, but it was worth going back and taking a second look at Tom. Something I don't think anyone has done in a very long time.
The most significant detail to reading the thread is watching how they behaved when it came down to D2, particularly the way they reacted to HR's fake claim and then comparing to how ghug and y2k reacted. When you look at ghug's reaction, he was deadset on believing the claim, trying to find a reason that was believable. He knew Balki would flip scum, but he couldn't just say it. When you look at y2k's reaction, he spent a few posts trying to create plausible deniability.
So I'm going to take the time and explain my thoughts on everyone a bit.
Upon rereading quite a bit of the thread early on I ended up with 2 town reads, 1 scum read, and 1 null read. I absolutely didn't want to play my hand until I managed to get to 3 town reads.
rdrivera2005:
I've explained my town read on him ad nauseam. Balki wouldn't use a scumbuddy to back up a fake claim D2, rdrivera was too hesitant to the idea of Balki as scum, not giving the idea much leeway, and now the biggest detail is his willingness to clear himself out of town to help prevent losing at lylo. He was my most confident read other than myself.
VashtaNeurotic:
He was my other town read. He's still a town read. A lot of this comes down to something he did D2 that would be absolutely dumb as scum. He actively adamantly promoted the lynch of Balki over ghug when the momentum was on ghug. When HR first claimed, Vash asked to hear Balki's story because he saw a scenario where it was plausible for HR to be scum. After Chaqa's claim, he actively tried to give logical reasons why he felt Balki was still a logical lynch over ghug. Balki having a far more important role than ghug makes this seem highly unlikely for scum to do. It's a correct assessment that he hasn't done much, but he's also pretty actively not scum.
Balduran:
He was my null read. There was a lot to be confused about when going back to reread him, particularly because of his long chunks of absence. He was a significant part of why I felt the need to get a reaction test. From which I managed to garner the following quote:
"I wouldn't necessarily mind dying today since other people are more likely to put up passionate fights at lylo (should RD flip town)"
Not the strongest reason to townread someone, but a list of willing mislynches who can actively back up why they're willing is particularly an unorthodox thing for scum to be part of.
Tom Bombadil:
That leaves one. By (mostly) process of elimination, the last scum is Tom. This is the most bizarre read of the game. Most of us have treated him as obvtown. I posted earlier that HR or Oztra should be MVP. I had thought Oztra had been the one to talk about scum being under deep cover, but apparently that was brain. Tom has some deep as hell cover.
I'll submit D2 as evidence again. This was Tom's response:
"Well this is great. It's beautiful outside and I want to spend my day out there.
There is no way HR would fake here. Doesn't make any sense.
%%vote Balki
Also, Tr - that is nuts. We lynch the guilty scan."
His confidence on the flip was astounding:
"TrPrado - will you eat a shoe if Balki flips scum?"
One might say ghug levels of astounding.
But when Chaqa proclaimed a guilty on ghug:
"%%unvote
I'm starting to believe the idea that Ika was real cop, and actually got the scan that ghug is goon. Then getting a sub was the best way to potentially fix the situation?
But then what would the rationale be for HR to fakeclaim cop?
And why would Balki counterclaim?
It doesn't make sense."
"%%vote ghug
Ika/Chaqa is cop. The substitution makes sense if GM's actually screwed up the PM (which means ghug is probably goon)
I mean Ika's first post of the D2 was that ghug is scum.
I just don't understand why HR would fakeclaim? And Balki fake counter claim. It doesn't make sense."
He took the opportunity to jump on the scum that was not worth as much to the scum team.
What an interesting day of activity.
When it came to the intentional mislynch strategy, he had quite the response:
"Ok. Can we volunteer other people?
Because I volunteer rdrivera for this "intentional mislynch""
This being a clear attempt to abuse the strategy and manipulate it to his own ends.
So why haven't we been looking at him more closely?
He's really good at pretending to be town. His voting record is pretty solid. But I don't think I know of many people who've taken the time to go back and read his behavior.
Napoleonic variant. RELEASED!
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