Just a quick reminder to everyone, talking about an ongoing game is generally unacceptable on the forum. The only exceptions in this game should be pure questions from people following the game, or commentary from the professors/organizer. If you do think of something important to pass along to the students and everyone following the game go ahead and pass it along to Tru Ninja, KingRishard, or myself and we'll try and cover it. Thanks!

FALL 1901

The fall of 01 is really where the action begins. Alliance begin to show and take root, players see the fruits of their diplomatic labors and some feel that bit of uneasyness when promises are broken and they begin to feel like a target and not an ally. For this season I will have a lot to say for nearly all countries and I will make some predictions on builds but leave out an explanation because it's based on how I see the game shaping and not based on press that occurs among nations.

The West
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Germany
The clear choice for the top western power, the moves were pretty clear and even the most elementary student could have predicted the moves having played a few games in the past. The only reason a German would have moved otherwise would be to opt out of a build for "safety's sake" bit I see no reason that should be the case. The one curiosity is the Russian bounce at Sweden. Newer players are more prone to bouncing for bouncing's sake but as one gains more experience, they learn that a bounce should not necessarily be the norm. This leads me to believe that one of a few things have occurred: (a) Germany had some suspicious press come his way and felt the need to bounce him out, (b) the Russian asked him to do so-which happens when he feels two builds would paint him as a target (c) there's an alliance structure on the map that calls for the need of a bounce. (d) something in the thread here spooked him - which I hope isn't the case. Here, if I were Germany, and I was going to figjt in my sphere and have an English target, I would have moved to the NTH. If it was against France, I would not have necessarily bounced Russia unless I want to guarantee an English build. Other than those, there's not much reason for a bounce which will just irritate someone you aren't planning a war with early on, so I'm eager to learn the reason behind it. If it was merely a whim bounce, it's best to leave it alone. Great first year! A pace like this is the envy of every country. For builds, I'm predicting F Kie and a pair of armies, with the remote possibility of a build deferrment.

France
In the clear second spot, I'm a bit less thrilled about your moves. The move to the ENG, while it helps nab English centers, it strands your Por army for an entire year before it can even defend, let alone strike. I would have opted for the convoy option for quicker results. The ENG move is very telling and while England has an army on the island, it will be slower to take him down. plus, there's not much the ENG fleet can do without German assistance unless an army build in Bre occurs which I don't expect. Anyhow, any game where France has 2 builds in the first year and no clear enemies is a formula for success. For builds, I anticipate the standard F Bre and A Par.

England
As miserable as the spring was, you made up for it in the fall and have a clear goal. I don't know if the ENG was an agreed upon move or not, but it looks like you could have an ally somewhere in the mix and a 02 build. I had predicted a northern opening for you in the spring and things panned out for you now. What I really liked was the hold order for A Yor. Yor is the premier defensive location for an army having the ability to defend any home center as need arises. Depending on the French, next year could contain high levels of stress or a great deal of comfort. Clearly, I predict no builds. Good luck in 02.


The East
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Russia
I like Russia for the top eastern spot, although everyone has something good going for them. The Swe bounce was unfortunate but you have other things going for you instead. For one, it looks like two DMZs were agreed upon and followed through with and you've still got your choice of ally, although the F Rum is more favorable toward Austria instead of Turkey. I can understand the move, however, since it allows you to build in Sev if need be. The successful DMZ of the BLA is what I like the most. Anytime I can talk Turkey into a BLA DMZ and we follow through with it, the better because it only strengthens my position. The only real doubt I have with your position is that it's a lazy opening. Russia is not the non-committal type. One thign I have learned about playing it successfully, and I learned this the hard way, is that more than any other country, Russia has to be a beast right out of the gate. If his growth isn't keeping him one or two units up on his neghbors, then he won't be able to survive if someone attacks. Russia is not an easily defended country and it takes lots of units to secure ots territory. This is only accomplished by a quick start. By now, you should have selected an enemy and moved on him. With both A and T agreeing to a DMZ, you should have considered breaking one of those and getting a foothold into your next centers. A slow Russia is simply waiting for a western power to move in and crush him before he can produce the units necessary to fight along two or three fronts. That said, not a bad start and I expect you to get rolling next year. For the Winter adjustments, it's a tough call but I'd lean toward A StP, A War or F Sev. You've got to make a choice and that choice will likely be reflected in your build choice.

Austria
At number two, you've got a pretty good start. The Gal DMZ was better for you than for Russia and it looks like a friendly Italian to boot. I totally agree with the Balkan Gambit opening since it nets you two builds and room to be diplomatic. I won't get into alliance structures at this point but I have my suspicion I know how this will form itself. There's one thing bugging me and it's the return to Tri. The bounce in Gal and return to Tri tells me you're not feeling comfortable with the press you're getting from your neighbors. Some Italians would be a bit offended in your lack of trust but ultimately, if you're planning army deuces for builds, it doesn't really matter. I still think that you'll be one of the stronger countries in the east and the nice 01 start helps that. As for builds, I'll go out on a limb and guess at two armies.

Italy
The third and fourth spot with Turkey could go either way, but I like your positioning far more, hence the thord position going to you. As a Lepanto fan, I can empathize with the clear moves you've got. There's no pressure from France, and won't be for a long time, no Russian army in either Gal or Rum and there will be no fleet build for Turkey in Smy which all entirely play into your setup. The next step is simply to formupate a plan amd keep focused. A fleet build in Nap is my clear call this Winter.

Turkey
Pulling up the rear, you're not in a bad spot but you've got less going for you. The DMZ of the BLA helped Russoa more than you and the F Rum move by Russia helped Austria over you as well. Now, the fact that Sev is empty for a build and you've got no place other than Ank to put a unit will place a strain on your relationship with the Russian. It can cause a bit of schitzophrenia--is Russia building a fleet to storm the BLA? If so, I'd better build a fleet. Is he building an army? What about the Italian? Austria has a fleet in Gre...All of these things can cause a player to doubt press that's coming in. All of this goes back to how well you know those around you and who you're comfortable with. I suspect that this next year will be particularly difficult for you, but time will tell. I suspect that an army will hit the map.

sorry Truninja, i will "pull back" a bit in comments

Russia i agree with the previous crititcism of being lazy / non commital

why not army Ukraine to Rum
supp move from fleet Sev
& army to Galicia again ?

that's the "logical" follow up to his opening
set of moves
with the gamble" being"
not giving support move to army Ukraine to Rum but going for Black sea
--that's easy with 20 20 hondsight.

with with that opening & to only end up with 1 sc & a fleet in Rumania
& no army in Galicia is a poor result

of course it's only the end of 01
so I await with interest

i will also refrain from making any comments about France or England
i am involved in a game with one of those players & he has the same nation
so have to "stay out of that"

@MM (and profs and TD please feel free to prove me wrong) but I believe it is not our place to comment on the results. That is the professor's role. I think as outsider viewers our role would be to generate and guide a discussion rather than offer our own version of a professor's lecture?

Five questions:

1. With the knowledge that England would not get any builds this year, did France have a better place than English Channel for him to move his fleet (assuming he was going to move on England)?

2. You said that you think Germany bouncing Russia out of Sweden was a bad idea because it would anger Russia, but then when you were talking about Russia you hardly mentioned the bounce at all. What would be different had Germany not caused the bounce?

3. What did Turkey gain by making the fall moves that he did? If he built another army, where could it go?

4. How worried does Italy need to be about defending Venice?

5. Usually, having a unit hold is simply throwing away that unit's potential utility that turn. What options did the units that held (Warsaw, Venice, Yorkshire) have that were not taken advantage of?

Fall 1901:
1. Germany - Remaining at number 1, a three build Germany for sure puts you as the strongest power on the board, and honestly doesn't scare as many people as a three build France or Russia would. I'm glad you didn't try to delay gaining one of them, as I believe that all three are more useful now than waiting to gain it. This is why I heavily doubt a build deferment is coming, but I would like everyone playing to realize how useful deferring a build is on the diplomatic level of the game. I also like the German bounce of Russia in Sweden. It keeps the next strongest power down a peg, helps the weakest power, and could potentially signal an alliance which would play to Germany's advantage. I agree with Tru about not bouncing just to do it. Sweden is Germany's best bargaining chip when it comes to making Russia do what he wants. Continuing along the path you've set up for yourself will yield great rewards. I'm also expecting a fleet to have some naval influence.

2. Austria - I'm moving Austria up a peg here as he is part of the 3 way tie for most builds but doesn't seem to have any clear enemies at the moment, which is great for Austria's chances of surviving. Russia didn't try for Galicia again, Turkey made no move for Serbia or Greece, and Italy left Trieste alone. I believe that everyone is trying to get on your good side, and it is turning out swimmingly for you. I personally find the move to Trieste by Austria as a sign of good faith towards Italy, as it prevents even the remote possibility of a fleet build. Typically, two powers will emerge out of the East, one naval and one army. Italy is almost forced to be the naval, and Austria the army. This shows that they are staying out of each other's way, at least for now. I can almost guarantee two armies.

3. Russia - I'm not sure what you said to Germany, but it for sure kept you out of Sweden, and I expect England to be headed to Norway, so you've certainly got a northern front on your hands. However, the south remains calm, which you need to use to your advantage. Find an ally quickly and gain some builds, as it looks like you might need southern builds to fuel an northern war. I'm personally a fan of the Juggernaut, so I like the DMZ in the Black Sea as well, but when there isn't continual bounce there, a lot of the board will assume a Juggernaut, get scared, and attack the both of you, which will sometimes force a Juggernaut that wasn't even going to happen. Be aware of how your moves make the other players feel. I'm willing to lean towards a fleet build this year over an army, although I always try to be more aquatic with my Russia. Although, I consider Russia my worst country, so what do I know, eh?

4. France - After the 2 3 shuffle, I'm back to my Spring rankings. I like that France got two builds, but I don't like how he got them. An army in Portugal sucks. I do like the move to the English Channel, as I always hate dealing with England's who think it belongs to them because it has "English" in the title. Not much you can do with it, but it does give you leverage, depending on how your press is going, with England/Germany. I expect the same builds, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised by the army build in Brest.

5. Turkey - Keeping with my hate of the Lepanto and love of the Juggernaut, I'm keeping Turkey over Italy for now. I do like the DMZ in the Black Sea for you for the same reasons I wrote in Russia's comments, but beware the same warnings I wrote. Now, Italy's classic Lepanto seems clear that he is coming for you. Russia's DMZ could be a faint to build another fleet and tear you up, but could be a sign of peace. It's up to you to throw the dice on who you defend from, but I expect a fleet over an army, unlike Tru.

6. Italy - I'm sorry Italy, I have no ill will against you, I just don't like your country. For the same reasons as stated in S01, I have you below Turkey. You do have things going for you, such as a build, the lack of a fleet appearing in Smyrna or Trieste, and no one attacking you which keep you out of the basement. You will probably be adding to your naval armada this Winter.

7. England - As the only country without a build in 01, you are the low man on the totem pole. You are attempting to redeem your Spring, which I'm happy about, and I agree with going North to take advantage of Russia choosing not to. Not sure about France being in "your" channel, but if you allowed it, things are looking up for you. Hopefully, you can pick up a build or even two in 02. Best wishes!

Uclaab, I'll take a shot at your questions.

1. If he was going to move on England this year, that was the best he could do, as I see moving to the Irish Sea even less helpful right then. If he was going to wait to move on England, simply staying in place (if by convoy or by holding) could have been effect. If moving on Italy, moving to the South Coast of Spain and then building a fleet in Marseilles would have been very effective.

2. Tru Ninja said that, not me, I will defer to him.

3. I believe Turkey gained a potential ally in Russia by making the moves he did. If he built an army, he could use it to defend Armenia in the case of a Russian attack.

4. I don't think Italy needs to be concerned about defending Venice more than it already is at the present time.

5. Warsaw - Moving to Galicia again would have gotten a good start on an Austrian war.
Venice - Moving to Trieste would have only angered Austria, and when everyone piles on Austria, Italy is usually for dessert. Moving to Piedmont would anger the Frenchman and result in a fleet build in Marseilles which would be very bad for Italy right now. Moving to Tyrolia would upset Austria and Germany probably, and it's never smart to anger the biggest guy around, especially alone.
Yorkshire - Considering the disaster that was the Spring, I don't see much else he could have done.

I know that I am supposed to not comment, so I won't but I will just say (as implied by the existence of the questions in the first place), I disagree with all of your answers, except maybe on #4.

A lot of people have been disagreeing with the things I've been saying. I would hope I'm not a terrible professor teaching wrongness to my students.

Maybe disagree is the wrong word. Perhaps we just have different perspectives.

Thanks Majormitchell and Uclabb. Ill post some thoughts on them now.

To the Major: I didnt necessarily have an issue with Russia moving or not moving to Gal, moving or not moving the fleet to Rum or the BLA or not moving the army to Rum, the issue I had was that he did all of them. As I said, Russia needs to have a clear enemy in 01 and a clear path to combating that. His military might is only good while he has at least a 1 unit advantage or more on his target. The moves, to me, say he is wanting to see how things developed with the fall moves before he picked a route, and in my experience, when I do poorly with Russia, I have moved slowly in the beginning and kept pace with those around me. If R is planning an Austrian assault, then dont be afraid to move to Gal and have an army in Rum. If its Turkey and he has agreed to DMZ the BLA, then move there yourself as well as Rum with the army. You can still build tje fleet you wanted but it puts you one season up on your foe. Russia's big advantage is that he can instill fear into anotjer smaller power if done right.

Now to Uclabb:
1) Yes-the IRI. Having a fleet in the IRI puts pressure on another center, can still support a new fleet into the ENG and can assist in supporting a convoy to Wal or even Cly. The more centers you can apply pressure to, the stronger your assault because your opponent has more "guesses" to make about where you will move and how you will do it.

2) I didnt mean to allude to an idea that the bounce was bad. Its bad if it was done without thought, or that the bounce was the default. Given the situation in the east, Germany shouldn't fear a RT if it hits the board because it's going to be very slow (not that Im saying there's a RT). Russia has a fleet in Rum, nothing in Gal, Turkey has nothing in the AEG yet, gained only one build, and that one Turkish build is facing the Russian side of things. Russia's primary focus is the south. That said, had there been no bounce, I would call A StP and F Sev for builds and little to fear by way of a German attack from Russia.

3) The Turkish moves indicate pretty clearly who he's plying for in terms of an ally. I will wait to discuss the army capabilities until after the spring because of the board make up and I dont want to spoil anything.

4) If I were Italy, I wouldnt be afraid for Venice. If Austria moves on Italy this early, he would be turning his back on both Turkey and Russia. Austria can attack Italy if (a) he knows of a fleet build and (b) he knows of a war between R and T, but I dont think that's the plan for the east. Italy needs to be thinking about build #2, not defense.

5) Concerning the units that held: War-depends on where Russia is going. If there is peace with Austria, get it into Moscow and on to Sev, if there will be war with Austria, get it into Gal. Sil and Pru aren't the best choices because with 1 build, and no clear F v G war, he can't afford to engage in another fight.
Vie-nowhere. I like Vie. If you're going to move Vie, do it in the Spring so that you can do something else in the fall. If you really wanted to do something with it, agree to a bounce with Austria in Tri and stage a false war. I think the hold was fine.
Yor-nowhere except maybe Wal. If there is going to be a war with France, you need that army at home slowing France down and Yor covers 4 of the 5 empty zones in just one move, can still support an English fleet move to Lon or a hamdful of decent things. Now, if you knew F would be in the ENG, then I would be in Wal because it stops a convoy and covers Lon in the same shot with a self-standoff using the NTH while the NRG takes Nwy, bit not knowing the French move, Yor is best.

Bump

Tru, you said you would mention where you would have moved that MAO fleet. I am very curious as to what your opinion is on that (though you may have already answered this question) because given England's situation, I would've moved to West Med with that fleet in a heartbeat.

I wouldn't have moved it there, personally. If you move to the WES, you're telling Italy that you want a fight. So you have to commit to building F Mar, right? Couple that with A Par and you've got the makings of a war that is more favorable toward you. However, you've still got that army in Por, which means you've got 3 armies trying to squeeze through a one-army space at Pie. One you can convoy to NAf but the other two must wait for fleet assistance. Now, the move is sure to beging to possibly net you a build or so, but not immediately, and if I'm Germany and France pulls south quickly, I'm shoving armies into Pic, Bel and any other place they can go because I've got an easy target.

The assault on Italy is fine if you have help from Austria and something at home in case of a stab, but without Austria on board, it's really difficult to out-muscle Italy in an area that he can easily slow you or stalemate you..

That said, if I picked up a game where some French player moved A Par to Gas, F Bre to MAO, and A MarSpa, I have a few choices. If Germany is gung-ho about storming England, who is easy pickings, I convince Germany to bounce England at the NTH and I move to the IRI. If I feel a soft spot for England, I take Por with the fleet and return Gas to Par because I want units stacking that line and make the move to help England into Bel (via fleet, not convoyed army). If I really feel comfortable with Germany and he will take on England by himself and I want to storm Italy, I get Austrian assistance

I wouldn't have moved it there, personally. If you move to the WES, you're telling Italy that you want a fight. So you have to commit to building F Mar, right? Couple that with A Par and you've got the makings of a war that is more favorable toward you. However, you've still got that army in Por, which means you've got 3 armies trying to squeeze through a one-army space at Pie. One you can convoy to NAf but the other two must wait for fleet assistance. Now, the move is sure to beging to possibly net you a build or so, but not immediately, and if I'm Germany and France pulls south quickly, I'm shoving armies into Pic, Bel and any other place they can go because I've got an easy target. If you've got an incapacitated player in your sphere, generally you need to quickly give him the axe and consolidate to two countries because it puts you ahead of the east. You probably shouldn't be letting a player back into the game. Here, it's a bit different because England will be back into the game thanks to the bounce at Swe. The question then becomes, how do you deal with that? This is the key piece of information I'm looking for out of the west.

The assault on Italy is fine if you have help from Austria and something at home in case of a stab, but without Austria on board, it's really difficult to out-muscle Italy in an area that he can easily slow you or stalemate you..

That said, if I picked up a game where some French player moved A Par to Gas, F Bre to MAO, and A MarSpa, I have a few choices. If Germany is gung-ho about storming England, who is easy pickings, I convince Germany to bounce England at the NTH and I move to the IRI. If I feel a soft spot for England, I take Por with the fleet and return Gas to Par because I want units stacking that line and make the move to help England into Bel (via fleet, not convoyed army).

I try not to move on Italy early on or cross into the Med because, to me, that's a huge red flag. Now, if I have Austrian assistance and German neutrality, absolutely, pitch the fleet south and cross that line early because if you're successful, then a solo is looking pretty good.

Sorry for the double post. Fingers clicked post reply instead of a space bar.

Winter Adjustments 1901

I will briefly touch on builds this year, although I like all of them except Turkey's build. I will go in alphabetic order below for those that I will comment on.

France-I'm glad you went with the standard. I think it will afford you the best mid-term benefit. Two armies would have limited space to put them.
Germany-I agree with KingRashard completely about not deferring a build and that was your best bet.
Italy-Fleet was the clear follow-through for the Lepanto opening.
Russia-I agree with the build, but it's clear you'll have to likely give up on a northern campaign for now.
Turkey-In vacuum, the fleet build is a good call. If you're going to make progress, it's gotta be a fleet. However, the Russian fleet build on Sev means that he's moving on you, the Lepanto is destined for you, and if there's I highly doubt there will be a two-on-two and that means Austria will likely come your way. That means you habe to dig in your heels and defend. The fleet will only be able to defend the BLA but you've got more going on than that. I'm sure at some point, you'll wish you could use it to defend or retreat to Smy or Syr but can't. Maybe I'm reading things wrong and you have a pocket ally or Italy is doing something different. I do have the tendency to suck at Turkey.

Wow, I just realized I need to proof-read my text...

I will get to commentary later today, but suffice it to say, there are a lot of things I really liked....

The builds went as I suspected, except for Russia's Southern fleet build. I would have thought Northern, but maybe that's just me. My commentary will also be coming later.

SPRING 1902
There were a lot of solid moves this season and a few that need addressing. The biggest thing coming from this season should be some self-assessing by several players and answering the question "What will I gain on the road I'm currently on and how long will it take to reach my goal? The answers, while they share some common elements, can have very different answers. Some players have a beneficial route with quick results, some have a beneficial route with slow results, others have hazardous routes with slow results and of course othersare on a bad path all round.

The West
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Usually, if I'm on a board where a country squares off against a country in the other sphere, I usually think that it's going to be a disaster because he is turning his back on the real threats he is facing. That's not the case here. In fact, I think it was the most opportunistic set of moves given the present situation. Your moves coupled with those of Russia will likely result in 2 builds this year which will put you in the front of the west with no competition. Usually, players are not as opportunistic as they should be and often miss out on a game-changing set of moves. Had France gotten back into the action and England not missed S01, then I probably would disagree with those sets of moves, but the two builds will allow you to replenish units at home. I firmly believe the single largest deterrent of the stab is a build. When a country gains a build, it secures a position of temporary defense that has to be overcome and the most brutal stabs occur when the stabbed goes down units. The new units will afford you a lot of opportunity and you'll be deciding where to go next pretty soon.

France-at a distant second, your position is suffering from regular "less-than-stellar" decisions. While they have not crippled you, they have slowed progress down to a halt. You'll clearly have no builds this year and probably won't have one next year either, barring some amazing or lucky turns for your benefit. You've got two armies still playing catch up and it will still be another season before you have the possibility of striking the home center of another player. Now, to your benefit, you don't have an Italian or German shoving units down your throat, although that can't last too much longer, and you are showinv signs of an attempt to out-think your opponent which many players cannot do and the best tacticians excel at. Last, the border between you and Germany isn't stacked with units which gives you more room to breathe. My worry is when and where your next build comes from. If it takes too long, you'll have bigger issues to deal with because as talent increases on the map, the shifting comes earlier and at the pro level, a player will take on a new opponent before the old one has been eliminated and getting the jump on a player is a very important element of the game. I think your best future will come at the diplomatic table instead of the battlefield.

England-this season really put some life into you in a very tangible way. You'll have a build coming to you and it will help you get back into this thing. The real question is where you expect to get your next build from because hanging on to 4 centers won't afford you much of anything. The big thing I liked was that you took Norway with the fleet and not the army. I also like the self-standoff at London instead of covering it with the army alone. I believe that your best future is not with the path you're on and I do believe that some things will change.

The East
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Austria-Your spot in the east is to be envied. You've got a lot of security and the potential for the most growth. Clearly you'll be negotiating Bul with the Russian and each of you has reason enough to have it. Your moves were about as useless as you could get, however. The move to Gre while your Gretican fleet was ordered to hold was clearly a misorder and my guess is the you wanted F Gre-AEG. This one mix up caused nearly all of your other units to traffic jam. I also don't really get the Albania move. You've crammed all of your units in locations that still tell me you're moving out of paranoia which is locking down too many of your units. I could be wrong and maybe Alb has a convoy in mind, but I don't see it. To change the subject, I do predict that Bul will go to you.

Italy-Your position isn't amazing, but it's steady. It will still be a year before you'll see your next build. I try to have the goal with Italy that I should have at least 6 units by 1904 which is one unit per year with a buffer year for possible lag time. Usually by 1904 (sometimes 03) things will condense and Italy will face a new target and needs to have the military might needed to face it. This map is a bit different in that you have no French worry and Germany won't be in your territory which gives you the time you need to get some traction.

Russia-Ouch. The change in German facing will mean disaster for you, especially in the middle of a campaign that might not yield anything. The worst part was the loss of Warsaw. If it had been StP, that can be sacrificed. War and Mos can be acceptable losses if they occur later in the game and you can hold a stalemate line from the other side. Not all is lost, however, and depending on your skills of negotiation and events of the board in the fall and next year, you may be in decent shape.

Turkey-Although your position is still really ugly, the German assault helped you more than anyone as it gives you a lot more to bring to the negotiating table depending on the way you play it. I like the unit shuffle amd I think it was your best option. I'm a bit surprised you didn't lose Bul this spring and there's a possibility of more behind the scenes than meets the eye. This year will call for a few good guesses, a bit of luck and gobs of press. Anytime you're in the frying pan, take Paula Dean's example and throw in a crap-ton of diplomatic butteryness and you'll be swimming in type II diabetes...er...whatever. Lost where I was going with that. Just don't give in.

(Be wary of this assessment, I wrote it at 3am)

I know many players will think that once they step into an alliance with another player, they should see it out to the end. If you are really working to win the game, you should assess your situation at each turn, and if it is more beneficial for you to stab than continuing working with some, then do it. I would not advise to cut off anyone, diplomatically speaking, however.

Spring 1902:

1. Germany - You are certainly playing a great game. While I would typically not advise moving on Russia so soon as Germany, it's really working for you here. France and England are fighting and Russia wasn't prepared at all for your moves. Unless some peace arrives in the West soon, you have nothing to worry about, and even if it does, you'll have builds to protect you. While historically Germany can't fight a two front war, this might be an instance where it could. As usual, keep up what you are doing.

2. Austria - While the misorder set you back some, your in a better spot than a lot of people. Misorders happen to the best of us (I had one just recently) and be overcome. I will go ahead and predict you will be one of the two Eastern powers to make it to the midgame. I don't like the move to Albania either. If the moves would have went the way they should have, all of that would leave Budapest wide open. I would have kept Budapest there while having Trieste move to Serbia. Regardless, what is done is done, and you should still pull a build this fall if all goes right.

3. France - You've got slow goings as a result of your Iberian campaign, which is unfortunately something many Frances see. You should be able to make some progress in England eventually, as long as you are left to your own devices for long enough, but don't count on you having that much time. You've got a big neighbor who is about to get even bigger. Keep that in mind when making your seasonal assessments.

4. Italy - Rankings have certainly changed for me. While I find the Lepanto slow and boring, at least it works. You should get a build by next year. Keep looking ahead about where you will go after that, however. With both Russia and Turkey going down hill, I see a power vacuum opening up and you want to be the one who fills it.

5. England - Nice climbing there and congratulations on the build. You are really trying to turn things around here. While it looks like working with Germany could yield more builds in the future, which it certainly could, keep in mind that he can keep you around only as long as he wants you around.

6. Russia - Woah. You've fallen a bit there. I don't know if the press gave any hints of Germany coming or what, but it is certainly a pain to you. You're going to have to work really hard to turn this thing around as you've seem to chose Turkey as an enemy while Germany and maybe England chose you. That makes half of the rivals on the board not your friend. Not a great way to get to victory.

7. Turkey - I can't keep you up any longer. You're getting nowhere and fast. With Germany attacking Russia, you might can work out a deal with him that aids both of you, as he is not alone in having half the board be against you. The good thing about Turkey is the defensive nature of a corner. Remember how much we've talked about the Lepanto and that Italy is also aware of how much we've talked about it. Hang in there and good luck!

I have a question for ya KingRashard: you placed Russia lower than England in your rankings. If I had done thwm the way you had, I would have the same order but with Russia over England. Why, in your opinion, is England in a better position than Russia? If you were Russia in Spring of this last season, what would you have issued as orders for the S02 moves?

I believe that England is in a better position because he will be climbing to four builds and Russia will be falling to four builds. England has the potential to keep climbing while I would bet that Russia will keep falling. I may be jumping the gun on that one, but that's how I see it. If I was Spring 02 Russia, I would be upset with how the game had gone for me so far, and honestly don't see moves I would have made that could have been better, as I wouldn't have counted on Germany attacking without seeing the press going on. If it was still winter, I would have built the fleet in the North Coast of St. Petersburg and tried for Norway, considering how England got a slow start.

Bump

Sorry about not having my post up yet. I have tried twice already today via my phone and the second tome I got all the way to the commentary on the last player and my wife called my phone and it erased the whole thing. It usually takes me an hour to an hour and a half to look at the map, check the move orders, compare the countries and write an in-depth analysis for everyone. I'll have one up tonight. At work right now...

I apologize for the lateness of this post for the players, but here is my commentary on F02:

FALL 1902
While some players came out better than when they started, this was a year of disappointments for a great number of players this season. To a large degree, I'm still a bit disappointed that some players are not seeing a bigger picture to things and looking to the future. Some players are proactive--having the ability to see events to come and make changes before disaster strikes to ensure their part in the endgame--while others are reactive, waiting until a situation occurs before taking action. If any of the players feel they need to develop this ability more, be sure to talk to your TA as they are highly skilled players that can help in these areas.

The West
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Germany--This was an excellent season! For a nation to have 8 centers by the end of 1902 going into 1903 is a rare situation that is the envy of all players, and is a testament to diplomatic skill as well as tactical skill, either by the player, the TA or both. Your position will afford you regular gains, although I don't think that next year will result in the 2 and 3 builds that you've come accustomed to of late. You're on your way to securing yourself in the endgame, but don't get too comfortable because this is a game where events can shift on a dime for the unwary. The EG is ever more apparent by the moves you played this season and it's playing well for you. For your builds, I'm predicting a pair of armies in Ber and Mun.

France--I gotta say, I don't necessarily disagree with your moves (except for the move to Bre), but instead, I disagree with the path you're on. If you look closely at your present situation, the fact that you didn't really get anywhere, but instead England gained a build this season only solidified the notion that you're probably not going to get a build for a really long time. An obvious build in Lvp will prevent you from moving there, Wal is locked down as is London and the NTH can be easily defended. In addition to this (and the reason I disagree with the Bre move) is that you already have an army in convoy position and you can't convoy two armies at once. If you had a third fleet or England had not gained a build, or even if you had made it to Wal, then you could see some progress. As it is, all of your units are crammed along the west coast as if a plague has hit Marseilles and Paris. One thing you have to keep in mind is that time is a highly prized thing in Diplomacy and every year is purchased with hard-fought Diplomacy and strategic movements of one's units on the map, and not something that is infinite. Eventually a power will move your direction, and likely one that is larger than the 4 center England that you now face, and possibly could work in conjunction with England to compound your problems further. If things do not change for you very soon, the odds that you'll participate in any sort of end game is pretty slim. I don't mean to be bitter or cynical, but I hope that you take something positive from this. France is my favorite country and has a lot going for it, and I believe that if you play things well, you can change things around.

England--The new build you're getting this season will pay dividends in keeping you around. However, I'm not entirely sure where your next build will come from. Getting to number 5 is certainly going to have to be your key and quickly. At 4 units and facing a 5-center power, you aren't going to gain a build by military might, but only in your ability to persuade someone to find a build for you and be gracious enough to see you in your cause. I like the move to Wales,as you out-guessed your opponent twice in a row, and the move to London was a bit disappointing, but ultimately it was safe. The new unit, as well as the position of your other units will make life very difficult on your adversary. I expect to see an army build in Lvp this Winter Phase.

The East
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Austria--This season was a bit of a disappointment and I fully expected to see you with a build coming out of F02. I'm not sure I'm following where you're going with things and it's a bit unclear who you're targeting. From the surface, one might believe there was a shallow attempt at a Russian stab, but there's no unit in Gal or Vie, and Russia spent his season bouncing your units there, which might lead me to believe that it was agreed upon to allow Russia to safely move to Ukr. The problem is that doesn't make sense either. If you're working with Russia, why have the pretense bounce there to begin with? Someone could have easily taken Bulgaria this season--either you or Russia--but instead Turkey remains in control of the center and slows down eastern progress another year. The fleet move to the AEG seems to indicate that you're still interested in attacking the Turk, but again, nothing was done about Bul, and if Russia is indeed your target, then the AEG fleet move makes no sense, coupled with no units in position to attack Russia. Something simply isn't adding up for me this season. If Russia and you are agreeing to bounce for safety's sake, this is becoming a crutch that neither of you can afford to hang on to. At some point, players have to simply trust that their ally will not stab them for a shallow gain. I hope to see some concrete progress this coming year, because Germany is making a lot of progress in the east due to the inability of the east to consolidate, and at some point, a western power is going to come your direction, be it Germany, France or even possibly Italy.

Italy--Tough break this season. It can sometimes come down to a gamble in trying to take a center or convoy an army, or even move from one location to another and someone is trying to stop you, and this one came down to a 50-50 chance. You had to guess which spot would have been open, either Smy or Syr. I expect that eventually you'll get what you want, but make sure that time doesn't become an issue. Italy usually suffers from lack of time to get going, but in this game, you're in the most secure spot among 6 of the 7 nations. France is in no position to move south, the west is not fighting a typical war where three countries consolidate into two and you have to worry about how quickly a country will sail across the med, and the jumble in the east is preventing Austria Russia and Turkey from really getting things going for any two of them. However, it does mean that the longer the east takes to get moving, the worse off you'll be as well. My advice for you is the same as it is for most of the map--if something isn't working, change it. I'm not necessarily advocating changing sides or tactics or anything in particular, simply be ready to switch up if you feel that the gains are no longer worth the time. Think of this as a new store owner taking out a $200k loan for a new business. They have to begin making payments on the building loan, purchase materials and equipment for the store, and begin paying employee salaries. Eventually, the owner has to begin to make a profit enough to make all of the necessary payments without having to rely on that original loan money or else he will go under. As I said, I expect that you'll do fair for a while, though, and time is more on your side than for others.

Russia--This year, although disappointing, wasn't a complete disaster, but it also wasn't quite what I was expecting to see. I'm not sure what to feel about the move to StP. If England and Germany work together, you're bound to lose it, and in some respects, it's better to cut your losses to wherever you think you can take a stand. Unfortunately for the country of Russia, when it starts to crumble, it often goes down in flames, even though it has some natural stalemates because the countries that attack do so from both sides of the line and holding itself up is really difficult. When you first get attacked, you have several smaller stalemate areas to pick from to defend yourself from a singluar attack, but having to cover two fronts is a bit more tricky, especially when half or more of your units are fleets. My recommendation is to think about where you can cut losses, ensure you have an ally somewhere and go from there. If you can do that, then I think you'll be fine. The key in any game is to make sure that your enemies are always busy with someone else. If you are their only project, then your survival is slim. Now, on to your moves in the south. I like the move to Ukr, but like Austria, I don't know what is going on with Rumania. As I stated in his commentary, if you're working with him, then don't waste time bouncing in areas that you don't need to bounce in, especially to take half of your units and dedicate them to a bounce that simply doesn't need to happen. At some point, you have to trust that an ally isn't going to stab you, or else all you will do is defend and get nowhere. If you're working with Austria, you would have been better to put a unit in Arm, get someone in Bul (I would have recommended you since you're losing War which would have kept you even) and begin making progress on Turkey to allow the east to begin to do something. If you're working with Turkey, then the move to Ukr would have been less advisable and I would have recommended getting Italy on board, moving to Gal, and begin supporting the Turk into a location, or better yet, having the Turk support your Rum army someplace. As it is, no one in the east is making any progress, and you're the one paying the price. Hopefully next year will have things a bit better for you. In terms of your destruction, I anticipate the fleet in the BAL to be ditched.

Turkey--Not an excellent season for you, but much better than what I expected to see. The fact that you opted to hold and support hold this season is something that usually doesn't pay off because one just waits around to get picked apart, but this season it paid off. I don't know whether you made agreements with any of your neighbors or if you simply got lucky, but the fact that Italy misguessed at the location of the convoy was a pretty fortunate event as was the fact that no one took Bulgaria by force or moved into Armenia. I wouldn't count on this type of luck to last long because players test boundaries, they try new things and will persist until they're either successful or they select a new target. However, a player will not select a new target until you begin to wear them down both diplomatically (by offering them a new path forward) and tactically by out-maneuvering them. Frequently, you have to select one, maybe two opponents to focus on to ensure that THAT player won't make any progress on you while the other person makes all the gains. If you do this and show someone that they will end up with nothing and someone else with everything, they will frequently cast their lot with yours, back off, and sometimes even work with you against the new, more clear threat. I don't know what's going on diplomatically, but you should definitely be talking to just about everyone. Your TA should be able to lend some advice in this matter on who to talk to and what to be talking about if you come to a dead end.

Fall 1902:
As we leave the opening and move to the mid game, I have my hunches about who will be making it, but seeing as everyone still has at least one center, it's anyone's game. In poker, there is a saying, "A chip, a chair". This can be modified for Diplomacy to "A center, a chair". Don't lose faith even with things look their darkest.

1. Germany - As usually, you remain the front runner. You've got some nice cushion between you and second place, but I do expect it to slow down from here. You have room to help an ally gain centers while still being in charge of the board. I also expect double armies, but I will only guess that one will be in Munich. I can see placing the other in either location, depending on how your press is going. Keep up the good work.

2. Austria - You're misorder in the Spring really prevented you from building now, and with Germany so far ahead, you can afford another mistake like that. I also dislike the move to Rumania, at least this season. I realize things may have looked bad for him since he lost his shot at Sweden and gave up Warsaw and you may have wanted to get a piece of that action, but you weren't very well setup to fight him yet. It's clear you've been targeting Turkey, so why lose focus now? Rumania would have still been there for the taking next year, but now you've slowed down, which will hurt you. If you don't grow quickly, you'll have to start watching your back.

3. France - Well, you've got your convoy blocked, England will be building, and any war with them will be a slog fest. You've got a Germany in front of you who will be building another two units this turn. Pending on the press, things could be going anywhere from okay to bad quickly. You do have the benefit of having a fairly defensible position, which is always a boon, but you can't hold out forever if everyone decided to come and get you. You need a clear ally, a plan to your next center, and you need it all fast.

4. Italy - As is one fault of the Lepanto, the end of it comes to chance even when executed well, and this one didn't go in your favor. Eventually, you'll get in, as Turkey also has Austria to contend with, and you don't have a France to worry about. If you are gonna stick in this thing, you need to get things moving, as staying in the middle of the pack often leads to being at the bottom as people are eliminated. If something is broken, fix it. I really like Tru's analogy here (I'm a sucker for analogys) so I will leave it at that.

5. England - Your incoming fleet build in Liverpool (at least that's my guess) couldn't come any sooner to aid in your defense. To turn the tide, you'll need another build or an ally to come to you rescue, both of which will require a lot of press if it hasn't already been assured for you. Even when you have a plan with a partner, I'd recommend continuing to check in with them as a rival could bring up something that might make them stab you otherwise.

6. Turkey - While your position isn't much better than Russia's at least you can defend better than him. You're going to have to work some diplomatic magic to either get people to leave you alone or come help you. While you may last, you can't forever. You did get the benefit of Austria and Russia fighting over Rumania instead of coming after Bulgaria, so congrats there. Keep trying to outguess the Lepanto and you might have an Austria who is tired of waiting on Italy to get somewhere, which would be of great help to you.

7. Russia - The fall continues. If you knew Austria was coming after you in Rumania, good job. If it was arranged, I don't understand. Regardless, your position is a poor one, as you can't defend St. Petersburg very well, and if lost, is almost impossible to retake, and will effectively remove you from having any say in the West. You losing a build here could possibly crumble you as you don't have enough forces to cover the expansive territory which is known as Russia. It's a tough call which one to choose, as you'll probably lose yet another after this regardless, which could spell the end of the Czars. Good luck.

I noticed in your rankings that you had Russia above Turkey prior to this season and it was evident that Russia would lose Warsaw. After the fall moves went through, nothing really changed that wasn't expected but Russia dropped below Turkey. Why the change?

I have Turkey below Russia because it's obvious that Italy is coming after him and to me, the Rum bounce was agreed upon and if I'm Russia, I can defend against one opponent, get a build next year (or at least a center to even out my loss) and can possibly negotiate with several individuals to help change my sotuation. If I'm Turkey, on the other hand, I have to hope that the bounce wasn't mutual, try to continue to out-guess Italy (which he didn't do this season because all he did was a series of all holds and supports), may face a continued 3-on-1, and have to try to negotiate with at least 2 people to get off my back before I can hope to get anywhere. In my mind, Turkey got lucky he didn't lose anything and no one invaded his soil.