More analysis to follow after supper.

Correction. I'm not going to have time to finish analysis tonight. :(

Yo guak, Imma let you finish, but damian's attack on you was the best accusation of all time. OF ALL TIME.

Oh wait, guak didnt start yet.

Alright, so we're 12 hours out now.

On the one hand, I can't see why sk!guak would have worked so hard to get us to kill krellin instead of Socrates/damian/whoever else we were gonna kill yesterday, and then would have shot Socrates when he could have sat back, shot me, and then watched the SD/damian thunderdome in perfect safety. I can see why damian might have done it if he felt he had a better matchup with guak than with SD -- incorrect imo but at least understandable. guak? can't see it at all

On the other hand I can't see why town!guak would have posted nothing this late in! Ugh!

I still think damian over guak but I'm trending toward damian being town almost by default

Thought it may be a RL crisis. Yet it seems Guak = currently logged in.

Vote Count Update the Third

No Lynch (1): Damian

Votes Outstanding (3): Guak, President Eden, TheMinisterOfWar

Currently NO-ONE is set to be lynched! 10 hours 12 minutes remain.

Alright sorry everybody. I actually reread the whole thread twice trying to look for suspicious damian behavior, and I have to say this dude is GOOD. I still think I managed to uncover enough evidence to make a convincing case. There are three questions that I believe must be answered:

1) Why was Socrates killed instead of PE/me?
2) Why is damian the SK?
3) Why am I not the SK?

I will address these three questions shortly. But first I will mount my defense from damian's attack.

By the way @PE @TMoW: I did spend a lot of time rereading, but I also was incredibly overworked this weekend and today. I really did not have much time to do my research. I am always logged in since I leave the webpage open, so knowing I was logged in does not in any way say I was here.

Regarding Day 1:

My day 1 posts were far and apart because I was busy those days and did not have too much time to post. Still, I posted a lot, coherently and was not afraid to accuse people that had not been accused by others. I would hardly call that laying low and merging into the background. Particularly, given my confrontation with krellin.

Also, damian accuses me because I made a joke post that the SK was after me. I will just remind you all that the majority of joke posts during these game were made by vanilla townies trying to spice up the game who also happened to be rookies, much like myself.

Finally, damian makes an elaborate job of trying to connect me to Gobble who was nightkilled. I simply say that any nightkill argument is WIFOM. To me it makes much more sense to kill someone who could not possibly be linked to the SK. Getting rid of known enemies is much worse than a random kill strategy for the SK. So, I could argue that precisely because Gobbled could not be linked to damian, he was a more likely target to damian than to me. Finally, given that we do not even know if the SK targeted Gobbled during the first night, or if he chose not to killm this argument is completely null.
Day 2 & Night 2:

To answer damian's question: Yes, I wanted to behave like a townie because I wanted others to know who I am. Yet, I also took significant risks throughout the game that show that I am a townie willing to die and to risk a lynching to find scum.

Regarding nightkill association, I say the same as before. It is completely WIFOM. Damian also suspected y2k and Vashta and saw sense in my accusations of them and the proposed link. He makes several references to my accusations throughout day 2 and has them both on his suspects list. Also, he is assuming that it was Vashta who was killed by the SK, something else we have no way of knowing. It could had just as easily been ghug, who I may add damian had promised to do a write up on and conveniently did not do it in time, so he was able to appear townish the next day without having to do the actual research work on ghug, as he reminded everyone during day 3.
Also, regarding how Vashta *magically* dropped off my suspect list, I will remind you all that in the same analysis I also dropped uclabb and Chaqa from my suspect list and added SD, as well as called out Gtl and TMoW. That post was a result of the accusation and vote tracker I was working on at the time that forced me to reread the whole thread while having the knowledge that Gobbled, Warden and Slyguy were innocent. It was the reread with the new perspective that made me drop Vashta from my suspect list.

Finally, if nightkills were to really provide so much information, then why on Earth would I had killed Socrates? That is the one nightkill that can actually provide some information in my opinion since the one move that does not make ANY sense under ANY circumstances for me to make. Likewise, while you could correctly argue that Gtl was on my radar, I actually spent the 3rd Night, and most of Day and Night 4 thinking pj was innocent since I thought uclabb might have scanned him.

Next post: My answer to the three questions.

1) Why was Socrates killed?
There are two possible arguments that come to mind:
- damian felt he could build a solid case against me, and that either PE or me would take the time to research SD to try and prove him innocent. Either that or he felt his case against SD was weak. I for one do not understand, I had nearly finished my SD study, and he was so easily frameable it is surprising damian chose to kill him. SD had repeatedly defended the SK, had been further away from the spotlight most of the time and was the prime SK suspect in both TMoW's and PE's books. In fact, I was the only one who had laced damian as #1 suspect. This leads me to another question: Why was I not killed? The best answer I can come up with was that if I died PE would had suspected damian since he was my #1 suspect. Yet, it could also be that damian saw an opportunity to make me look guilty since I was unable to post my night cases on SD and damian like I had promised.
- damian does not have enough time to extend the game a couple of phases while the no lynch charade goes on. (I saw in one of his recent posts that he will not be available after June 1st, so this theory fits. Still, I have to say I had thought of this possibility before he made the post, as it makes so little sense to kill SD. The only benefit I see is that the game can now end in this phase rather than reaching a stalemate. It is clear that the choice is now between damian and me). This leads me to not be able to understand why damian now says we should vote no lynch. If it is for time concerns, I would much prefer an extension of the daym since going to the night phase would likely end in PE's death and one less townie discussing the accusations. No lynch no longer seems like a helpful strategy for the town, so obviously damian advocating for it is using an SK strategy. @damian: if you are having time issues, please just ask for an extension of the day phase. There is no reason why we should let another townie die unnecessarily.

2) Why is damian the SK?
I can separate the argument into four main points:
a- damian secured a strong town position and then faded off. I can buy damian's defense of reality and obligations making more participation impossible, yet I uncovered an interesting exchange on page 39 between damian and uclabb where damian suddenly realizes why an SK with nightkill inmunity should still try to stay under the mafia's radar. SInce it happened over several posts, I recommend you guys go back and reread the exchange. You will see that damian has a moment of realization that he should not expose himself too much to the mafia. Overall, I think it was a combination of real life and strategy that allowed damian to survive for so long as a trusted townie while removing himself from the mafia spotlight. I asked damian on day 3 how come he had managed to avoid being targeted by the mafia or SK when he was such an important townie. It amazed me that they had not even attempted to roleblock him, as he would had been my #1 target since day 1 if I had been scum.
b- damian successfully attempted to deflect attention from himself from copscans and the QA. Twice Chaqa mentioned damian among interesting copscan targets, and twice damian said that a copscan should not be wasted on someone in a strong town position like himself, that copscans were better used on the people in the middle. He also proposed in p12 that the QA 'uses question to try and clear hard-to-read players.' Clearly, since everyone was townreading damian, he wanted to avoid an early scan or a damning question answered.

I quote from p5 after Chaqa proposes cop scan damian:
*
Damian response: Chaqa. While being scanned. (And latter cleared at the cops convenience) would make my life easier. Isn't it a bit suspicious to ask to cop to clear someone that most people think is innocent this early in the game? Wouldn't it be better for the town if the cop scanned people that it is hard for the town to get a read on? Since it maximizes the amount of information in town hands.
Similarly, people the town finds suspicious probably aren't worth scanning either because they are liable to be lynched.
That's certainly the strategy I would take as a cop.
To phrase my previous comment differently. The people the town trusts often get killed by the mafia (unless the doc can save them.). And the people that the town distrusts get lynched. Its the people in the middle who are most likely to survive until the end. If we can make sure that the people in the middle can be cop cleared in the late game. Then we should have an easy(ish) win.

Then on p14 Chaqa mentions the following as cop scan choices: I think uclabb, myself, damian, y2k, and Warden (if he isn't lynched) would all be good choices.

damian answers: As I said earlier, I think the cop should scan people who are quiet first. Because those are the people least likely to be lynched or nightkilled initially. Making his scans more useful as the game progresses.
In contrast I think Chaqa's suggestion would be more like throwing his scan away
*

So, early in the game damian attempted twice to deflect copscans from him and once to manipulate the question in another direction. Possibly the strongest evidence available if we assume damian has nightkill inmunity, which also aligns perfectly well with the laying low accusation and the conversation with uclabb. Question deflection is damning even if copscan inmunity was chosen.

c- damian usually avoided talk of the SK until late in the game, and in the last few pages posted quite a bit of suspicious material:

p109: damian mentions the SK has helped town so he feels SK should be kept around for now (referring to PE as possible SK)
p116: damian says about PE
* I was and still am leaning Town or SK. But I still feel something is off here. If he survives the night despite being the leader of the town, he'll be jumping up my suspicion list.
Right now I'm still not sure who the SK is, I'm leaning PE, Chaqa or SD, but that might just be a result of the current momentum against them.
*

damian's suspicion of PE makes sense as part of the plan to frame PE as SK.

p121 (answering to PE's post accusing damian of being mafia):
* While your argument is good. And there is nothing I can do to refute it. I know your conclusion is wrong, I'm not a member of the mafia.
*

Notice how damian mentions he is not a member of the mafia instead of saying he is just a vanilla townie. Curious choice of words.

Later on that same page, damian sets up an scenario where only guak and damian are left under consideration for the SK.
*
The thing is, if we kill the mafia man today. PE and Krellin are 100% cleared along with TMOW. Leaving 3 cleared townies and 2 Unknowns.

If we mislynch today we are left with 3 town 1 mafia and 1 SK. Which is probably a game over scenario. If 2 townies get killed overnight.

If we kill the SK today we are left with 1 cleared town, and 4 unknowns, since krellin and pe can both still be accused under SD's logic. For SD the mafia man this means he has an opening to convince people using that logic to vote for either krellin or PE instead of him.

He is the mafia man. And if you kill him the argument dies with him. You'll be left with only two options. Me and Guak. When we arrive there, I'll have to hope y'all make the right choice for the town.
*

p125: damian says he will still not vote krellin after guak makes case, later votes with the threat to return to SD if guak does not make a solid case for SD innocence.

Damian's reluctance to shift to krellin initially could show that he was SK and was not willing to move from SD to try and actually catch mafia since SK would had been the favorite to win if we lynched a vanilla townie that phase.

p125 in general should be reread by both TMoW and PE, as I think it has interesting back and forth SK talk.


d- damian was never overly concerned about who he killed. He clearly did not felt as much regret as I did over killing townies, and several times tried to focus discussion on a few players simply because they had garnered more votes than the rest up until that time. I think not caring about who you are killing is a strong indication of being SK. Stillm I think this is the weaker point of the argument, and am aware that the first three are much better argumented. I really could not find much evidence to support this, though I did have this impression after rereading. He did suspect heavily the first two people to mention that he may have been more than just vanilla townie. Slyguy during day 1 and y2k during day 3 (after y2k mentioned he suspected damian was SK during night 2).

And finally

3) Why am I not the SK?
Three-pronged defense here:
- I repeatedly mentioned the SK when the role was forgotten. I think no SK would ever want to bring attention to the SK hunt and the fact that I repeatedly mentioned the importance of not forgetting about the SK surely helps my cause. During my very first posts on pages 11-12 I emphasized the importance of including the SK in the question, since up until then the discussed questions had all failed to mention the SK. Proposed questions for the QA were only focussed around mafia. Also of note,
p104: guak reminds everyone how real the threat of the SK has become
p109: guak raises attention to the SK hunt, lists suspects
p110: guak mentions TMoW should be lynched if there is a chance of capturing the SK and the numbers add up.
p118: guak mentions sk suspects again

- I never shied away from conflict and demonstrated repeatedly that I was willing to risk my life to find out who the mafia was. No SK would had wanted the attention I got from the krellin debacle or from the y2k debacle that made me and chaqa the frontrunner suspects for all of Day 3. Also, my self-voting stunt was an unnecessary, risky stunt even for a townie. It would be utter madness for the SK to do such a thing. I would think the attention I garnered and my willingness to become a main suspect clearly shows I am not the SK.

- I even defended krellin repeatedly when he was accused during day 3 of being the SK by almost everybody.
p76: guak defends krellin from sk accusations
p88: guak defends krellin from sk accusations again

Overall, my best defense is that I have clearly taken a lot of risks that a SK should not be taking as any of those stunts could had easily gotten me killed and managed to raise a lot of attention. Also, Socrates death makes no sense if I were to be SK, it would be such an absurd strategy that it could never work. Socrates had so much suspicious behavior that a great case could be built on him based on pages 90 to 100 alone! And he was the prime suspect. Finally, the fact that I repeatedly went out of my way to defend others from SK accusations and that I usually brought up the importance of not forgetting the role of the SK because of excessive focus on mafia should make it clear that I am not the SK. I hope you guys make the correct decision. I will log in again later to vote. Either way, I think we should end this game in this phase, so I want to repeat that if damian needs more time we should just extend the phase. There is no longer any benefit in doing no lynch today.

If have 15 minutes right now, and then won't be able to reply until the phase ends, courtesy of my work schedule. Thus I won't be able to reply to Guak's accusations right now. I have two things I really want to get out before the phase ends however.
1. Guak, you were misunderstanding my reason to no-lynch. At that time you had posted nothing. I didn't want to make a vote without a comment from you.

2. Since I don't have time to make any other points let me briefly address the Socrates and Krellin thing. Since I do think this is the most telling part of the game.

Eden asks why would Guak make a case against Krellin last minute if he was the SK. Allow me to explain, for Guak Krellin was actually the least likely of his suspects to be scum. Consider this, of me, SD and krellin. He had both me and SD down as suspects for both mafia and SK, even if he did have a slight lean towards krellin for the mafia man, both me or SD would have been safer kills for a townie to make because he had is in the running for both roles, while he only had krellin in the running for mafia.

Socrates, I quite literally wasted all of the analysis time I had over the weekend on Socrates. In contrast Guak, you failed to post your analysis of him at all. If I had known he was going to die, I would have been busy preparing a case against you. You can tell by the fact that my case is still incomplete that I wasn't doing so.

Why should I like my odds with you better than with SD? I felt like I built a solid leakproof case against him! In contrast with you I'm scrounging for scraps, and looking for mistakes. Since the vast majority of your play has been extremely pro town. With that said I'm not confident you can make the argument that you took more risks than I did. I also tried to antagonize krellin and other into voting for me, on account of his whole I'l vote for the next person who x, idiocy.

Unless the SK is PE, who would be sitting in the background right now gleefully laughing as we tear each other apart (unlikely.) Then you know who I'd vote for.

If that phase gets extended I'll try and give a more fleshed out reply. Failing that there are 4 of us left. If PE and TMOW vote for a no-lynch it doesn't matter who you and I vote for. Since you've managed to speak and so have I.
##Extend the Phase?
##Vote Guak

This phase extension will not be granted - the allocated time of each phase is part of the game.

Obviously this turn has been less than fulfilling, though it did yield two pretty good cases.

I wont be going into detail just yet wi my thought, but ##VOTE NOLYNCH. I would advise any and all townies to do the same, as it makes the equation exactly the same but with one less suspext to worry about.

@damian: why do vote guak instead of the no-lynch you posted earlier? Please explain.

Signing off now - vote no lynch y'all.

If PE is SK it means that whomever was roleblocked during night 4 failed the town by not counterclaiming. PE claimed roleblock early, so it does not seem like he tried to take advantage of a lack of claim. Likewise, if TMoW is SK it means the real QA failed the town by not counterclaiming. Those two are moot points, I don't understand why you even bring them to the table damian.

It is easy to argue that I took way more risks than you given that I was top suspect in everyone's list during the entire Day 3. You never were in that position. And regarding your explanation of why it would make sense to kill SD, it is not only WIFOM, but also a very poor explanation. I had made my SD research and had it almost ready, the fact that I had not published it does not mean I did not bother doing it, and I already stated that a more likely explanation is that you tried to take advantage of my lack of time to raise suspicion against me. Your case against SD is far from airtight and you already knew you were my top suspect for SK. That meant a potential deadlock with SD and me voting for you and TMoW and you voting on SD if you had killed PE like expected. If you had killed me you would had raised attention to yourself given that you were my prime SK suspect and everybody knew it. Thus, you tried to throw a curveball by killing SD and making it between you and me, while taking advantage of my lack of time to post. You still have no reasonable explanation as to why on Earth I would had killed Socrates instead of PE, given that you were so sure that SD was SK and TMoW was almost certain I am innocent. Also, Socrates would believe that you were SK, so it would be a two horse race between SD and yourself. Why would I place myself in the running unnecessarily? It just does not add up.

##Vote damian for now. Let's wait and see what PE says first.

@TMoW: PE already said that it is unlikely the SK would kill anyone during the night. So, I do not think no lynch will help remove a suspect. Still, I will vote no lynch if an extension is needed to discuss the cases more thoroughly, given that captainmeme already denied the possibility of a phase extension.

@damian: Also, how can you possibly say krellin was my least candidate to be scum? He always hovered in and out of my suspect list and was only removed temporarily based on faulty logic. Plus. I did not set out to build a case against krellin. I reread the thread and concluded that there was a connection between krellin and the other mafia men, so I took the time to research him and try to prove in the best possible manner that he was mafia. And he actually did flip mafia, so there is no way you can argue that he was my least suspicious player. Also, I could had just as easily made a case on you or SD to try and push one of you two over the edge and just kill krellin during the night if I was SK. Why would I make such an effort to convince the town to lynch krellin if I could just pop him in the night? Again, your whole case on me is based on absurd propositions. Do I really appear to be as irrational as you believe I am?? I would hope not!

#yolo

##VOTE damian

Neither case convinces me much so I'm going with my own theory, sk!guak has less (bordering on no) reason to act the way he'd have had to act last day and night to get us here.

though I think guak's case was better... damian's is an analysis of the first two cycles which wasn't really damning in my analysis

phase over?

should be game over

the anticipation is killing me over here

Should be in the bag for us townies unless something really crazy went on here and either PE or TMoW managed to avoid being counterclaimed.

meme be fuckin with us

sheeeeeeeeit

the joke is that SD was the serial killer and we're all townies

lol you guys are set, GG everyone, can't believe the town salvaged that

As the sun set, the remaining four members of the town celebrated their victory over the mafia. Minister, ever the question-asker, raised a glass and said "Should we celebrate?" As they drank, it came upon Mayor Eden that there was still a serial killer loose. In his cups, he took guak and damian out back and gave them knives, and shut the door.

After a few minutes, a scream was heard. Guak stood over damian, who was bleeding and injured. "He confessed!" screamed guak. As Minister and Eden picked him up and took him to the old tree, damian screamed curses and wet himself. Guak tied the rope, and they hoisted him over the branch. The life went out of damian, and a note fell from his pocket - a confession.

DAMIAN has been lynched. He was BLANKFLAG, the SERIAL KILLER.

Town wins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RVa0Q_t0bI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMUDVMiITOU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ANk8xlsp1pQ