Apologies for the delay. My phone finally gave up on life yesterday, so replacing it and getting my new phone set up became a higher priority task, and I'm just getting home from work today. Obviously given the lack of discussion this far we should vote no-lynch today. 100%
Anyway, without further adieu. The case against Guak. (Or the beginning of it anyways)
Day 1 & Night 1
During the day, I don’t have a lot to say about Guak. His posts came infrequently, and he would often go several pages between single posts. Which could be an attempt to fade into the background or simply not having much to say. I don’t read much of what he does say as SK though.
“PS: You will know who I am soon enough, I have a feeling I will die early in the game. Maybe I am just paranoid, I don't know but I think a serial killer is after me *glances sideways nervously*.”
This strikes me as suspicious, it seems like he’s trying to play up his SK hunt to ensure the suspicion of being the SK never comes around to him. (prior to this he is accusing Chaqa or Y2k of being the potential SK.)
The nightkill:
As I explained in my accusation of SD, I had very little reason to kill gobble overnight. He had a favourable read of me and I had a relatively good impression of him.
In contrast Guak on Gobble “13. Gobbledygook: Can't really say I have a good read on him yet. I think I will have to reread his posts to get a better idea of what is going on here, but I would think right now he is somewhere in the middle levels of suspicion. Has made some well built arguments, but I sometimes wonder about the reasons behind soe of his actions. Really need to reread before commenting with more accuracy.”
and Gobble on Guak: “16. Guak
I think his attack on krellin’s methods was justified, but not his vote on krellin. Still, likely town.”
Gobble has a favourable read on Guak, but criticizes his methods. Guak has an moderately unfavourable read on Gobble. It certainly wouldn’t be out of the question for him to have targeted Gobble during the first day.
Furthermore if anyone had motivation to frame Krellin (by killing Gobble), it would be Guak, give the tiff they had during day 1
Guak’s opinion on the death “Gobbled's death could possibly be linked to Krellin. He seemed to have it in for Gobble more than Warden. But then again it could be someone framing him. Don't really know what to make of it. I expected a more silent figure to die. ”.
Possible lamp shading of his motivation for kill Gobble.
Guak: “when does night end?”
Not necessarily indicative of anything, but if he is the SK he would have to make sure he knew when the night phase was happening.
“Now, my take on recent unfolding events: I found Chaqa's behavior during the last few minutes extremely suspicious, and Vashta's nightime behavior too. They have both moved up on my suspect list. Chaqa due to the wavering votes from one side to the other (maybe trying to force a tie and no lynch vote?), and Vashta due to his initial insistence on a suboptimal question and his strong interest on whether the SK had opted for copscan immunity or nightkill safety (if you are not mafia, then why would you care?).”
While Vashta’s question was rather poor, the town would find information about whether the SK had copscan immunity or nightkill immunity very helpful. As it helps narrow down the profile of the SK. That he finds this behaviour suspicious (Vashta asking the GM if we would get to know the SK’s choice) strikes me as the play of the SK who doesn’t want people thinking about it.
PPSC Points Distribution
. Germany won with 22 of 34 SCs, so by my calculations Germany should win ( 22 / 34 ) * 175 = 113 
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