tmow will want to lynch me, as will damian (him for obvious reasons). i favour a no lynch in our coming turn (assuming pe is nightkilled), just to make sure the sk is damian rather than guak. i don't feel like we gain anything by lynching when it's 3-1, we should just wait and get more definitive information.

then i need to convince tmow of my innocence (no chance of that at all though, so doubt we will win).

basically though, the option will be me (as a prime suspect) or one of guak and damian. because the sk can't really kill tmow, and because I am such a suspect won't kill me. this means other possible sks will be whittled out, without a loss for him.

obviously this changes if pe isn't nightkilled tonight, but pe is the most obvious nightkill

Actually yeah, SD is right, no-lynch tomorrow

don't sound so surprised PE, i am town and trying to win it for us now.

that isn't what I meant, and that kinda rings phony tbh

would kill SD over damian and well over guak, but no-lynch is the right play

How does no lynch work? If the majority of the town votes no lynch and the SK votes to lynch a town member is there a no lynch, or would the town member die? Because it would be a very risky strategy if the SK could make a kill happen with a lone vote. Either way, it is a 50-50 chance it is SD or damian. I will do a case writeup for each before morning.

it should go to no-lynch with a majority vote not to lynch... or even 50% since a tie = no-lynch gg

you could theoretically just make two 2-vote wagons on SD and damian, if we're all sure guak isn't the sk or if I'm alive to tomorrow. but I don't think that's a good plan, we're better just all voting no-lynch and end

No, two 2-vote wagons is way too risky, I do not see the benefit of the no lynch since I will be killed in the night and the decision will still be between damian and socrates, but if you guys really need me to die to prove I am not the SK I will gladly vote no lynch. Either way, I am against an end vote as I think we should be doing a lot of talking in the last days.

I'm still building my case. But I'm confused PE. If we all vote no-lynch and end how does that help us? Lets assume that whateveryone else is saying is correct. And you or guak is killed tonight and the other the next night. We have me. Socrates and TMOW left. One SK, one cleared townie and one uncleared townie. If we're voting to end early next day we aren't gaining information from that day, and we have to make the vote when 1/3 votes is from the serial killer rather than 1/4. It gives the serial killer more influence.

If we aren't voting no lynch to extend the discussion in hope of gaining more information then voting no lynch hurts the town more than helps. The only instance in which the no lynch would be helpful is if town is town between 3 suspects for the SK. As it stands right now, it looks like everyone is convinced it is one of me or SD.

Am I wrong, is Guak still under consideration?

I was kinda hoping not to have to explain this because if one of you figured it out after it happened, it might be alignment-indicative. Now that we're here, though, better to explain than not.

In short, I don't actually expect the serial killer to kill someone. Any situation where it is profitable for town to no-lynch, it is profitable for mafia/sk/etc. to no-kill. The logic is that you try it once to see if the serial killer is confident enough to kill off a possible target. (or even TMOW if they're really ballsy) That may tell you something if they choose to do it and don't recognize that it's the wrong play. ex: If SD were killed off and the f3 were Minister/guak/damian, I'd probably suspect guak in that scenario, because if it were damian, he would have been better off no-killing or killing guak, whereas guak would have been forced to kill one of the two prime suspects.

Of course it's all moot now that this is out in the open, but if the explanation is needed (and here it was), better to explain. You no-lynch because if the sk does choose to kill, you have one fewer person to consider.

And yes, remote though it is, guak is still under consideration. If he gets killed in the night and it's down to Minister + you/SD, that's still better for town because it gets rid of some of the noise.

That said I guess if you do nl you're still better off talking than not

(so don't vote to end)

Thanks for the explanation PE. I hadn't even considered that possibility. I can see why you would prefer a no-lynch under those circumstances. I think it was the vote to end thing that really threw me through a loop. Since I figured the only value in a no-lynch was in increasing the information available to the town, and perhaps narrowing the field of suspects.

I don't know why I am still under consideration, given that my shift of the town towards krellin would have been the dumbest possible move for the SK. But like I said, if it makes you all happier then let's go ahead and vote no lynch.

You're not seriously under consideration, for all intents and purposes it's damian and SD. Use the time you'll have to make your best arguments. Realistically the sk will probably no-kill anyway.

'rings phony', thinking like that will make us lose the game.

I had been thinking the same, about no-lynch. We shouldnt forget that any smart SK would have been genuinely concerned about the mafia anyway, so the difference in actions in each of us would not be so large. We all were searching for a target.

PE and guak are both still possible (if unlikely) possible candidates for SK. PE has had the advantage of a non-counter claimed RB, but that *could* (though I dont actually believe it myself) have been a gutsy claim assuming he would not be counterclaimed anyway. Highly unlikely. The case for guak is still somewhat there. He has been exonerated for an *excellent* case on krellin. Yet an active SK could arguably have done the same. Again, unlikely, but conceivable.

For all intents and purposes it's damian vs SD. So how these two make their accusations of the others will be telling.

I'm not sure the no-lynch would work in practice. Like said above, voting no-lynch dooesnt exist in the rules. People voting no-lynch would have to either abstain or create a double train. Both scenarios would create a situation where a single rogue vote becomes decisive.

@captain: am I correct at no-lynch is not something we can vote for? Or can we vote for no-lynch the same way we can vote a candidate?

i thought we could vote no-lynch after the first two days?

You can vote no lynch any phase, in the same way as a candidate, using ##NOLYNCH.

any phase eh?

##NOLYNCH

:^)

if only we could vote no night kill

>.<

I'm doing this chronologically. Here's the case for Day 1 and Night 1. Explaining why SD is a better SK candidate than I am.

Lets begin with what we know.
In Night 1, there was only one kill.

Meaning either
1. The Mafia and SK targeted the same person
2. The Mafia or SK chose not to shoot
3. The Mafia targeted a SK with nightfall protection
4. There was a Doc Save.

I think we can disqualify 4, since if there was a successful save, we could reasonably expect there to have been a claim.

In scenario 3, the mafia knows who the SK is. Or at the very least can make an educated guess. In that instance we can be sure the mafia members would be gently pushing for a lynch of the SK. Given the RB on PE in the final turn, I think it is safe to assume this is not the case. Since if the mafia knew who the SK was, than I suspect PJ and Gtlblx wouldn’t have been nightkilled, because the SK would be the mafia’s choice to role-block.

That leaves us with scenario 1 and scenario 2. In scenario 2 we have very little to go on. The kill of Gobble could have been conducted by either the SK or the mafia. In scenario 1 we have to asses the motivations of the SK to kill gobble.

So. Night 1, we have 2 Scenarios.
1. SK killed Gobble
2. SK killed no-one.

Damian “13. Gobbledygook - I've liked what he's said and he's said a fair bit of it. He's pushing for information and I've got to respect that. It's possible he'll turn mafia, but for now I'm leaning towards town.”

Gobble says: “8. damian Very well-reasoned, I agree with him on most of his points. Clearly town.”

SD says: “gobbledygook: i agree with a lot of what he said against warden, and have no real complaints with his behaviour, need to see more though.”

Gobble says: “11. Socrates Dissatisfied
He hasn’t posted much, but the times he posted they had good content and I agree with his”
Gobble later changes his mind and says about Socrates: “He hasn't actually responded to Chaqa's accusations. He dodged most of Chaqa's points, e.g. regarding his first post, regarding his demand of a cop scan, regarding the 'honed in' comment, and regarding his page 18 post.

Right now I think we have some main suspects that many people have indicated are quite likely guilty:

WardenDresden
Slyguy270
Socrates Dissociated
uclabb
”
Looking at this, I can see why Socrates might be willing to lynch Gobble. Whereas there isn’t a good reason for me to do so. While we shouldn’t discount the no kill possibility. Every little clue helps.

Annex 1.
Chaqa’s accusation of Socrates.
Referenced by Gobble
“Page 14: When discussing power roles, he wants the cop to target the big talkers, not the lurkers. If Socrates flips mafia, look for the lurkers to be allies. He also votes Slyguy in his next post here. Note that Guak and uclabb both raise suspicions about Socrates at this point. Slyguy then votes Socrates - they’re doing what the mafia did last game and accusing each other with votes that don’t have much to back them up.

Page 15: For the second time he’s asked the cop to scan him, leading me to believe Socrates is the mole. He seems awfully willing to throw his comrades under the bus if he is.”
First off, the amount Socrates talks about the cop in the first day is pretty suspicious. Lets consider his proposed strategy from 2 different angles.
1. He’s the SK with scan immunity. Well no shit he wants to be scanned. Calling, twice in day one for a scan of himself. While trying not to attract too much mafia attention.
2. He’s the SK with nightkill immunity. It’s his first game online, but I seem to recall him saying he’s played face to face before. If so he should know that nobody appreciates call of, copscan me. These calls typically aren’t heeded. Could be an attempt to use reverse psychology to avoid being scanned.

In either possibility I think his distinct interest in the cop, is telling, as a vanilla townie wouldn’t be that concerned with the cop scanning him.

Furthermore his suggestions for how the cop should scan were suboptimal. A point of disagreement between the two of us. He was advocating for scans on the loud people, which is a great way of making sure the Cop scan’s get wasted on people who are likely to die, while protecting himself (should he survive to the end game from being scanned.) In contrast I suggested scanning people who are difficult to read, which as PE explained is the superior strategy as it should ensure the town has more information by the end game.

Day 2 and Night 2 to follow once they are complete.
-damian

pe, before you die, how would you make a case for one person to be sk, if the person is someone who didn't face much suspiscion for ages? i ask this because surely if damian is the sk, he could have always acted in a perfect townie way?

truth be told the sk is hard to make a case for since there's no associations to play off of

principally the key difference between the sk and the town is that the town cares about who dies while the sk doesn't, so I look at people who have been digging around looking at the thread repeatedly to make cases, people who dug in when under attack and refuted accusations against them while building cases against others, people who tended to be more open and outspoken about where they stand, people who made good policy suggestions early and then followed up on them

you look at guak for instance and he's clearly satisfied all four conditions without a problem

---

following from this I would vote SD over damian right now, pay attention to see if damian drops off when it comes to these things and if SD steps up and matches damian but I think atm the choice is clear

hypothetically entertain this for a minute: I'm innocent, and damian is the sk. despite that, damian satisfies your conditions better than i do. how can i then get the town to do the right thing and lynch damian?

- outwork him the rest of the way
- show how my assessment of your relative standing on these conditions is wrong

it's kinda hard for me to advise you on this because if I thought you were more town than damian and if I thought you had a more convincing case than him, I'd be calling for damian to be lynched instead and I'd be defending you

well i know i'm innocent, but i think it is likely the case for him being sk is worse than the case for me to be sk. since you're the senior player, i was wondering what you would do in such a situation if you were me?

(and yes i know, you think i'm guilty, but entertain my question without that in mind)

I'm definitely not going to finish Day 3 and Night 3 before the end of this night. Day 2 and Night 2 and took a long time to look through.

Day 2 and Night 2
(Unrelated to my case, but fun fact. There were 0 mafia in the group that voted for slyguy.)
Socrates, immediately post reveal by captainmeme: “I will defend the points against me, and then try and come up with some good suggestions. Shame about gobble, i really valued him as a player. If the other person was saved and would have otherwise died I think it is ideal they come forward.”
We've spoken before about how people who seem to just be waiting for the reveal are suspect. I think it's especially true is a case like this, where we've got an extremely fast reaction to Gobble's death. Perhaps a sign he had already had a chance to process the death, because he had pulled the trigger.

He continues on about gobble during the rest of the day.
"‘Bonus question: Do they have an opinion on Gobble's death?’
For me Gobble’s death is a huge loss, both personally, and for the team. Gobble was one of the few people to explicitly declare a (somewhat) favourable opinion of me, rather than neutral or negative, and part of me worries if his loss will not lead to my own. Beyond that I think he was insightful, a good townie, and I can see why that in itself would have attracted attention (him over damian and others who were obviously trusted and good candidates to being saved). I think his death may be able to tell us a lot.”"
An interesting attempt to rewrite history by Socrates. Yes, Gobble's initial read on socrates was positive, but he later put him in his top 4 suspects. That socrates has chosen to forget that, and excluded it from the narrative makes his heartfelt appreciation of Gobble phoney in my eyes.

What else did socrates get up to in the day?
He pushed the SK case against Uclabb pretty hard.
"A big thing is also the death of gobble. Uclabb tried to make it clear that if he was sk he would not have killed Gobble, but I’m not so sure this is true. Gobble did strongly suspect uclabb at one point, but did move on. As sk you want to kill people that might cause you to be lynched (i.e. someone who has vocalised strong suspicion of you). Of course others were more vocal in their suspicion, but no one kills the person who is promoting their death their most – that is a giveaway. A smart tactic is to kill someone who you may be wary of, but isn’t directly tied to you. As sk your kills are important not just for killing the mafia, but for killing those who may cause you to be lynched – all you care about is survival. For me, gobble would be an ideal candidate to be killed by uclabb."
Hilariously his read of why uclabb would go after Gobble almost perfectly mirrors the reasons he would go after Gobble. Someone who was suspicious of him, but hadn't made him a primary target. The sort of kill that could be overlooked. His push to label Uclabb as the SK is a good way for him to ensure the SK label stays far away from him.\

Socrate's final vote: “Vote ##warden
Cop scan y2k (although he may be mole or serial killer)
Will check developments in an hour. Sorry, mad rush now.”
For serious, now he wants the cop to scan Y2k. A townie who we can clear using other methods. Ie. counterclaims, and as we later found out. Saves. If y2k was a power-role he was likely to be killed by the mafia. If he wasn't he was likely to survive long enough for the town to lynch him because of their suspicion. Suffice to say this would also have been a waste of a cop scan, that wouldn't have helped for the end of game.

Night kills. Neither Vashta nor Ghug had marked me or Socrates as particularly suspicious. Here are Vashta's reads. "“May as well do my current reads now from strong town to strong scum:
Strong town: Damian, ghug, VashtaNeurotic (me)
Moderate town: y2k, Gtblx, krellin, Socrates
Slight town: PJ, TMoW, kasimax
Null: Double Capitals, Chaqa
Slight Scum: Valk, guak
Moderate Scum: None
Strong scum: uclabb, Warden”"

Despite ghug making reference to it I can't find actually find his suspicion list for the day. Help? If we go by his google docs list he trusted nobody and suspected, Chaqa, TMOW, uclabb, Warden and Y2k.

Of the two of us, I'm seeing no motivation for Socrates to kill either of them. And very slight motivation for myself. I had originally suspected Vashta earlier in the day and wanted to re-read him ghug and a Gtlblx, Y2K and Chaqa. A sizable list of people. I think you can chalk the night lynch to being slightly more probable coming from me. However a random lynch from Socrates could easily have fallen on either of the victims, especially since I had very little motivation to kill either of them. (Both thought I was innocent)