@bo
"you don't understand economics."
"Thanks. You obviously don't understand that "economics" doesn't put food in your mouth."
cute, but economics observes human behavior, and is the best mathematics representation of sociology. it has the best predictive results in determine changes and trends in agriculture, and the way people use their money 100% determines whether or not food goes in their mouth
"There is a functioning demand for food, you're exactly right. You're also exactly right that if the free market simply drove farmers away from farming, those few that kept with it despite making nothing or even losing money would end up profiting in the long run due to the lack of supply. Then, the supply would come back up. And down. And up. And down. And on and on. Fantastic."
except this is NOT what happens
https://ideas.repec.org/b/mtp/titles/0262582384.html
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01753236?LI=true
https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2016/09/economist-explains-economics
equilibriums are NOT always oscillating ranges, but even if they were, this would still provide a stead supply of food to the population. i'm sorry but that's a REALLY bad argument. Even Keynes understood this much about economics.
"In the mean time, there would be food shortages because nobody's growing food. The price of food would go up and people would be unable to afford food. There would be disarray and chaos. There would be famine. Perhaps people in the government understand that if you have no farmers, even if only for a short period of time, then you have no food, and don't want that to happen."
you're working off of a false premise. your understand of equilibrium prices and shifts in supply and demand are entirely messed up. Read the links i provided above, they're actually studies into how human behavior operates and how an economy shifts.
also, i think you don't understand how agriculture works in america currently. our problem isn't lack of food production, it's difficulty finding a market for the food geographically and fiscally.
""the original plan of paying farmers not to produce was an FDR plan to reduce the supply of grains and foodstuffs so that the market price would go up."
Sounds like you think FDR was some sort of power hungry leader that would have made a great tyrant had he rose to power somewhere else. No argument there. That might be where that plan came from."
agree with you there
""the idea of crop rotation had been around since the dark ages"
Dude, the idea of crop rotation has been around since hunter-gatherers became agricultural. They didn't do it here because they felt like they were too good to take care of the soils. Haven't you heard of the Dust Bowl?"
yes, i live where it occurred, the dust bowl bowl was not just overproduction, it's that the soil was entirely different from surrounding areas. we had seen overcropping down in many other breadbasket states, but the dirt of oklahoma is fine and course, and it picked up with the wind. the problem with oklahoma was that farmers took out bad loans with banks, and were never able to pay them off. they were driven for profit and screwed up. this is not the bad part though, because the banks would foreclose on the land, but they didn't want some shit land in oklahoma. it was such a massive clusterfuck, especially since it had been ever since the FED was formally created by Wilson... as soon as the FED was created we saw a massive over extension of credit the roaring 20s were based off of bad monetary policy, that accumulated in the 29' crash. but for farmers, the bad loans and interest rate manipulation wasn't the only thing that screwed us over.
the simple fact is the farmers in many cases weren't allowed to fail. many smaller ones did, but some of the larger conglomerates stayed in businesses thanks to government propping them up. bad decisions continued to be made and the taxpayer bore the burden
@orathaic
"@"it's easier to by a burger for your kids than cook a meal, even if the home cooked meal is cheaper. people are selecting economically poorly and health wise poorly, simply as a time-tradeoff."
I think you're saying freedom of choice for the people can be inhealthy for them.
Is that fair? And in that case does it undermine on of the principle idea of Adam Smith, that more choice for consumers is good for them?
Or are you saying that Obesity is a cost consumers are willing to pay?
Because i think humans are terrible at making ling term decisions like this. It is easy to compare two food items with a single measure, like cost today. It become much harder to even compare one item today, or the same item but cheaper in six months, because you suddenly have two variables, cost and time of delayed getting the item..."
step 1 is transparency, people need to know what's bad for them. nowadays, most people know sugar and saturated fat is not good in large amounts.
if that's what they want to eat, that's fine by them. their life, i don't care. if they get more pleasure a few fewer years, that's their decision. i don't get to control them
the BIIIIIGGG problem with obesity (no pun intended) is what to do with children. this is where the debate get complicated, because the child doesn't have a choice of what food he or she eats, but does the government get to step in and demand parents feed them specifically what THEY say? remember that the FDA released a report saying the old food pyramid wasn't valid anymore, as the massive amount of bread put at the bottom in "grains" was actually fueling health problems. the simple fact is i don't trust the government, and the best way to go about this is to try to evoke a cultural trend.
if you can think of legislation that could be non-interfering and still help i'd be open to suggestions: public school recess and lunch requirements are an obvious first step, but it's another interesting entangled debate
"So for even more complex decisions like health, which are hard to quantify in monetRy terms, you're even more screwed...
Yeah, you can claim obesity is an incentive, but that doesn't make human rational decision makers with super-predictive powers and the analysis capabilities of an insurance firm."
back in the 1970s there were price ceilings, so that no gas station owner could charge above a certain amount. this caused a massive shortage in gasoline, and so you ended up with large lines at gas stations and overall shortages.
in some parts of north california and oregon, some people started selling gasoline at a higher price, but in much larger quantities. obviously there was large demand for this.
a group of economists at a university in california decided to do a quick experiment, and tried to predict how much they were charging for gasoline: they calculated the human risk factor of committing a crime, the extra cost of the drive to get the gasoline, the benefits of (basically) unrestricted quantities of gasoline, the incentives of no lines vs the deterrent of a higher price.
after all these factors were controlled for, they got an expected price, and they were confused. the price before the controls had been on a trend expected to reach 40 cents by 1972 (i believe), while the price controls capped them at 36 cents.
people demanded the gasoline illegally, at a market value of 40 cents, and their predicted price (something like 40.5 or 41) was correct, but the deterrents brought down the market value of the interaction to 40 cents
the economist hadn't worked backwards and found this number, rather they observed the natural supply and demand model work... what i'm trying to say is that even WITH government influencing an economy massively... that doesn't change actual supply and demand curves
my economics professor showed me that data last year and it was quite impressive. i think i have it buried in my google doc notes somewhere, but i'm going to try to link you the study if i can, but it was extraordinary fascinating... people, on average, were making a PERFECTLY rational analysis that took economist WEEKS to figure out.
this is why the free market is naturally more efficient, day to day variations between individual consumers and businesses naturally affect price extraordinarily quickly, while critical analysis takes weeks to get the correct price. there is a legitimate concern about "Sticky wages" and "Stick prices" from the new Keynesian crowd, but every new Keynesian i've talked to really does appreciate the raw effectiveness and natural flow of free markets