Shouldn't there be 56 games then? Or am I mathing wrong.

Interesting that there were 3 build Austria games, but no 3 build France games. I'm guessing those are Piedmont openings

And look at that Venice opening winrate!

I didn't include games from those who placed 3rd or 4th in their group because there were a handful of "bad" games and NMRs. Weeding out weaker strategies or errors.

Ah. Makes sense then. Thanks for putting in the work. I think meme was trying to do something similar with his tourney at one point, but that may have gotten too large

I think what would be interesting to see is what groups of SC's are won with the most. When France wins, is it with Moscow or Tunis, etc

Nice job Jeff Kuta!! Thank you.

My courses of statistics are far far away... Too far away... But just from the basic data it seems that in the population reprensented by this sample (fairly experienced players) we could conclude that A doesn't lose significately more often than F.

* Is A winning more often ( A:15 vs F+D:13 ) ? -> should be inconclusive
* Is F winning more often ( F:8 vs A+D:20 ) ? -> no
* Is A doesn't lose more often ( A+D:20 vs F:8 ) ? -> should be yes.
* Is F doesn't lose more often ( F+D:13 vs A:15 ) ? -> should be inconclusive

I suspect that we shall see trends solidify as better players choose better strategies. I will be following this tourney to its end. I also track movement and builds through 1902. May be worth checking on key SCs at the end.

Spring 2017 1v1 Champions League (FvA)

SUPPLY CENTER COUNTS AT END GAME BY VICTOR

GREAT POWER WINS (#WINS)
Supply Center (Aut#Wins, Fra#Wins, Neut#Wins)

AUSTRIA WINS (16)
Naples (A16)
Venice (A16)
Rome (A14, F1, N1)
StPetersburg (A11, F5)
Berlin (A9, F7)
Munich (A7, F9)
Tunis (A6, F10)
Norway (A5, F10, N1)
Kiel (A1, F15)

FRANCE WINS (8)
Norway (F8)
Kiel (F8)
Tunis (F8)
Munich (F8)
StPetersburg (F7, A1)
Berlin (F7, A1)
Rome (F2, A6)
Naples (F1, A7)
Venice (F1, A7)

DRAW (5)
Naples (A5)
Rome (A5)
Venice (A5)
Tunis (A3, F2)
Berlin (A2, F3)
Munich (A1, F4)
StPetersburg (A1, F4)
Kiel (F5)
Norway (F5)

Games counted include Top 2 finishers from each group stage and completed games to the present.

A draw with Austria in StP? That's weird.

Draw with Austria in StP. I think this game was ended because both participants were assured of advancing.

http://www.webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=198643

Not a proper draw then. It messes up the statistics. :)

True. Probably ought to eliminate this game from the analysis.

They drew because they both thought they would lose. That was the group's third or fourth game to finish.

Whatever the reason, the game wasn't drawn due to a stalemate so for the purposes of my analysis, it should be dropped from consideration.

Meme was sure of advancing. (He was 4-1 at the time.) Genghiz still had to finish the rest of his games.

I have my own personal reasons for wishing that game had been finished.

SPRING 2017 1v1 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
France vs Austria

GAME RESULT COUNTS FOR ROUND OF 16

N = 20 (16 normal, 4 playoff)

RESULTS BY YEAR: N (YRxn, etc)
France win: 13 (06x1, 07x9, 08x1, 09x1, 10x1)
Austria win: 6 (04x2, 05x1, 06x3)
Draw: 1 (07x1)

FRANCE OPENINGS: N (F#w, A#w, D#)
ENG, Bur, Pic: 14 (F10, A3, D1)
ENG, Bur, Pie: 4 (F2, A3)
MAO, Bur, Pie: 1 (A1)

AUSTRIA OPENINGS: N (A#w, F#w, D#)
ALB, Gal, Tyr: 12 (A3, F8, D1)
ALB, Rum, Tyr: 2 (A1, F1)
VEN, Gal, Tyr: 6 (A2, F4)

FRANCE BUILDS 1901: N (F#w, A#w, D#)
A-Mar, A-Par: 10 (F6, A4)
F-Bre, A-Mar: 10 (F7, A2, D1)

AUSTRIA BUILDS 1901: N (A#w, F#w, D#)
A-Bud, A-Tri, A-Vie: 1 (A1)
A-Bud, A-Vie: 6 (A3, F3)
A-Tri, A-Vie: 12 (A2, F9, D1)
F-Tri, A-Vie: 1 (F1)


KEY SUPPLY CENTERS AT END GAME

OVERALL (N=20)
Kiel (F19, A1)
Tunis (F18, A2)
Munich (F16, A4)
Berlin (F14, A6)
Norway (F15, A3, N2)
St. Petersburg (F12, A8)
Rome (F10, A10)
Naples (F4, A16)
Venice (F4, A16)

WHEN FRANCE WINS (N=13)
Norway (F13, A0)
Tunis (F13, A0)
Kiel (F13, A0)
Berlin (F12, A1)
Munich (F12, A1)
St. Petersburg (F10, A3)
Rome (F10, A3)
Naples (F4, A9)
Venice (F4, A9)

WHEN AUSTRIA WINS (N=6)
Rome (A6)
Naples (A6)
Venice (A6)
St. Petersburg (A6)
Berlin (A4, F2)
Norway (A3, F2, N1)
Munich (A3, F3)
Tunis (A2, F4)
Kiel (A1, F5)


ADDITIONAL NOTES
Only two Austria wins were completed in 1904 (gameID=200749, gameID=200561).
All 4 France players that entered Norway in 1902 won (gameID=200638, gameID=200699, gameID=200976, gameID=200543).

Dat France winrate

Interesting stats though. Thanks for putting it together

SPRING 2017 1v1 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE
France vs Austria

GAME RESULT COUNTS FOR QUARTERFINALS

N = 11 (8 normal, 3 playoff)

RESULTS BY YEAR: N (YRxn, etc)
Austria win: 7 (05x2, 06x3, 07x2)
France win: 3 (06x1, 08x1, 09x1)
Draw: 1 (08x1)

FRANCE OPENINGS: N (F#w, A#w, D#)
ENG, Bur, Pic: 9 (F2, A5, D1)
ENG, Bur, Pie: 2 (A2)

AUSTRIA OPENINGS: N (A#w, F#w, D#)
ALB, Gal, Tyr: 7 (A5, F2)
VEN, Gal, Tyr: 4 (A2, F1, D1)

FRANCE BUILDS 1901: N (F#w, A#w, D#)
F-Bre, A-Mar: 6 (F1, A4, D1)
A-Mar, A-Par: 4 (F1, A3)
F-Mar, A-Par: 1 (F1)

AUSTRIA BUILDS 1901: N (A#w, F#w, D#)
A-Tri, A-Vie: 5 (A4, F1)
A-Bud, A-Vie: 4 (A2, F2, D1)
A-Bud, A-Tri, A-Vie: 1 (A1)
A-Bud, A-Tri: 1 (F1)


KEY SUPPLY CENTERS AT END GAME

OVERALL (N=11)
Naples (F1, A10)
Venice (F1, A10)
Rome (F2, A9)
Munich (F3, A8)
Berlin (F4, A7)
St. Petersburg (F5, A6)
Norway (F10, A1)
Kiel (F9, A2)
Tunis (F9, A2)

WHEN FRANCE WINS (N=3)
Norway (F3)
St. Petersburg (F3)
Tunis (F3)
Berlin (F3)
Kiel (F3)
Munich (F3)
Rome (F2, A1)
Naples (F1, A2)
Venice (F1, A2)

WHEN AUSTRIA WINS (N=7)
Rome (A7)
Naples (A7)
Venice (A7)
Berlin (A7)
Munich (A7)
St. Petersburg (A6, F1)
Kiel (A2, F5)
Tunis (A2, F5)
Norway (A1, F6)


ADDITIONAL NOTES
No Austria wins were completed in 1904--players are wiser and more experienced now.
4 France players entered Norway in 1902--3 lost, 1 won.

France got crushed in the quarterfinals, a bit of a role-reversal from the round of 16.

It should surprise no one that Berlin and Munich are critical supply centers. They were both controlled by the winning great power in every game, and split when the game was drawn.

In every win, Austria also controlled Rome, Naples and Venice, while France controlled Norway, St. Petersburg, Tunis, and Kiel.

I correctly predicted 9 of the 11 outcomes after the end of 1902 builds, missing the draw and one prediction of France which ended for Austria.

Good luck to the semi-finalists!

genghiz is the champion, congratulations!

gameID=204855
gameID=204856

At least somebody from the group of death won. I can take solace in the fact I took a game from him.

Nice job, genghiz! Finally somebody proves that xorxes is beatable.

The Spring 2017 Champions League is over, and congratulations to genghiz for winning, defeating the top seed in the final, and also coming out of one of the tightest groups in the Group Stage. The prize pool of 1000 shall be awarded immediately!

Thank you to everyone for taking part. There were some brilliant games to spectate, and I enjoyed it immensely. Hopefully, all entrants enjoyed themselves, and were happy with the way it was run - any feedback here is welcome, too. As this is intended to become a biannual tournament, the Autumn CL should start around October time, and shall have the same tight qualification system - so get yourself into the top 32 by October!

Hellenic Riot (Tournament Director)

Anyone wishing to view the full results may do so here: http://webdiplomacy.challonge.com/Spring2017ChampionsLeague

Bravo, gengiz!

Congratulations, genghiz!

Congrats Genghiz!

I need to find me some 1v1 games to try and break in.... anyone who's interested just PM me ;-)

Thanks everyone! I definitely picked a good time to have a winning streak, and got lucky more often than I deserved. Looking forward to the next tourney!!

Congrats to genghiz for winning! Thanks to Hellenic Riot for running the show.

SPRING 2017 1V1 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE (FvA)

FINAL STATISTICS

Total games played: 72
Total gamed played R16+: 38
Games won: Austria=35, France=28, Draw=9
Games won R16+: Austria=18, France=16, Draw=4

GAMES COMPLETED BY YEAR
1904: 2 (A2)
1905: 12 (A12)
1906: 17 (A10, F5, D2)
1907: 21 (A7, F11, D3)
1908: 15 (A3, F9, D3)
1909: 4 (A1, F2, D1)
1910: 1 (F1)


SUPPLY CENTER COUNTS AT END GAME BY VICTOR

GREAT POWER WINS (#WINS-TOTAL) (#WINS-R16+)
Supply Center (Aut#WinTot, Fra#WinTot, Neut#WinTot)(Aut#WinR16, Fra#WinR16, Neut#WinR16)

AUSTRIA WINS TOTAL (35)
Venice (A35)
Naples (A34, F1)
Rome (A33, F1, N1)
StPetersburg (A28, F7)
Berlin (A24, F11)
Munich (A21, F14)
Tunis (A12, F33)
Norway (A8, F25, N2)
Kiel (A5, F30)

AUSTRIA WINS R16+ (18)
Venice (A18)
Naples (A17, F1)
Rome (A18)
StPetersburg (A17, F1)
Berlin (A12, F6)
Munich (A11, F7)
Tunis (A5, F13)
Norway (A5, F11, N2)
Kiel (A4, F14)

FRANCE WINS TOTAL (28)
Norway (F28)
Kiel (F28)
Tunis (F28)
Munich (F26, A2)
Berlin (F24, A4)
StPetersburg (F22, A6)
Rome (F12, A16)
Naples (F10, A18)
Venice (F6, A22)

FRANCE WINS R16+ (16)
Norway (F16)
Kiel (F16)
Tunis (F16)
Munich (F15, A1)
Berlin (F15, A1)
StPetersburg (F13, A3)
Rome (F12, A4)
Naples (F5, A11)
Venice (F5, A11)

DRAWN TOTAL (9)
Naples (A9)
Rome (A9)
Venice (A9)
Tunis (A4, F5)
Berlin (A3, F6)
Munich (A2, F7)
StPetersburg (A1, F7, N1)
Kiel (F9)
Norway (F9)


TOTAL ORDERS FOR AUSTRIA, SPRING 1901 (72: A34, F28, D8)
ALB, Gal, Tyr = 44 (A22, F19, D3)
VEN, Gal, Tyr = 23 (A12, F7, D4)
ALB, Rum, Tyr = 3 (A1, F1, D1)
ALB, Boh, Gal = 1 (D1)
ALB, Tri, Tyr = 1 (F1)

TOTAL ORDERS FOR FRANCE, SPRING 1901 (72: A34, F28, D8)
ENG, Bur, Pic = 57 (A25, F23, D9)
ENG, Bur, Pie = 8 (A4, F4)
MAO, Bur, Pie = 6 (A6)
MAO, Bur, Pic = 1 (F1)

TOTAL COMMON ORDER PAIRINGS, SPRING 1901 (60: A28, F25, D7)
ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (35: A17, F15, D3)
VEN, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (18: A8, F6, D4)
VEN, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pie (2: A1, F1)
ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pie (5: A2, F3)


R16+ ORDERS FOR AUSTRIA, SPRING 1901 (38: A18, F16, D4)
ALB, Gal, Tyr = 25 (A13, F10, D2)
ALB, Rum, Tyr = 2 (A1, F1)
VEN, Gal, Tyr = 11 (A4, F5, D2)

R16+ ORDERS FOR FRANCE, SPRING 1901 (38: A18, F16, D4)
ENG, Bur, Pic = 30 (A13, F13, D4)
ENG, Bur, Pie = 7 (A4, F3)
MAO, Bur, Pie = 1 (A1)

R16+ COMMON ORDER PAIRINGS (35: A16, F15, D4)
ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (20: A11, F7, D2)
VEN, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (9: A2, F5, D2)
VEN, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pie (1: A1)
ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pie (5: A2, F3)


TOTAL ORDERS AND BUILDS AFTER COMMON PAIRINGS (35)
SPRING01: ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (35)
AUTUMN01: GRE, War, Mun && LON, Mun, Bel (35)
Austria: A-Bud, A-Vie (13: A8, F4, D1)
Austria: F-Tri, A-Vie (2: A1, F1)
Austria: A-Tri, A-Vie (19: A8, F9, D2)
Austria: A-Bud, A-Tri (1: F1)
France: A-Mar, A-Par (14: A8, F6)
France: F-Bre, A-Mar (18: A8, F7, D3)
France: F-Mar, A-Par (3: A1, F2)

SPRING01: VEN, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic (18)
AUTUMN01: HOLD, Mun, Bel && LON, Mun, Bel (18)
Austria: A-Bud, A-Vie (7: A2, F2, D3)
Austria: A-Tri, A-Vie (8: A4, F4)
Austria: F-Tri, A-Vie (3: A2, D1)
France: A-Mar, A-Par (7: A4, F2, D1)
France: F-Bre, A-Mar (10: A3, F4, D3)
France: F-Bre, A-Par (1: A1)

SPRING01: ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pie (5)
AUTUMN01: GRE, War, Mun && LON, Mun, Ven (5)
Austria: A-Tri, A-Vie (5: A2, F3)
France: A-Mar, A-Par (4: A2, F2)
France: F-Bre, A-Mar (1: F1)


So the question is: How does France improve and win more?

As we can see VEN, Gal, Tyr is not generally a good opening for Austria against the standard ENG, Bur, Picardy opening for France, so most Austria players will not take this line.

The simple answer to counter ALB, Gal, Tyr is to open ENG, Bur, Piedmont more often. This ties up Austrian builds and impulse to retake Venice which gives France more time to secure Germany, Tunis and Norway (all 3 such French wins had these 5 SCs).

Here is an example of such a game, won by tournament runner-up, xorxes:
gameID=200563

It may take France a bit of time to become comfortable with this "risky" opening, but slowing Austria down can only be a good thing. Austria needs speed and impulse to win, but the end game clearly favors France. Surviving to that point is critical. In a tournament with pairings, it may be good to try and win as Austria and play for a draw as France. Draws happen more often than you might think.


WHAT IS THE BEST STRATEGY FOR FRANCE AFTER THE MOST COMMON OPENING of (ALB, Gal, Tyr && ENG, Bur, Pic) AND (GRE, War, Mun && LON, Mun, Bel)?

Let's look at the 4 common build pairings by R16+ players after those opening pairs of orders:

(A-Bud, A-Vie && F-Bre, A-Mar) (6: A5, D1)
(A-Tri, A-Vie && A-Mar, A-Par) (3: A2, F1)
(A-Tri, A-Vie && F-Bre, A-Mar) (4: A2, F1, D1)
(A-Bud, A-Vie && A-Mar, A-Par) (4: A2, F2)

Conventional wisdom for France holds that "flexibility" with a fleet in Brest is good. It turns out that's a false assumption. Build armies in Marseilles and Paris to give France the best chance. Control of Germany is critical to France's success and armies are needed to hold early gains.

The four (A-Bud, A-Vie && A-Mar, A-Par) games were rather interesting in their own rights. The two Austria victories came in 1904, while the two France victories came in 1909 and 1910. I think these 4 games are each worth study in their own right to see how Austria can be lightning fast and how France can grind down a quick start. Here they are:

gameID=200749 (Fluminator vs bozotheclown, AUSTRIA)
gameID=200561 (rdrivera2005 vs xorxes, AUSTRIA)
gameID=200544 (josemurc vs goldfinger0303, FRANCE)
gameID=200638 (SplitDiplomat vs captainmeme, FRANCE)

HOW GENGHIZ DID IT
When playing France: 5 (F1, D4)
When playing Austria: 5 (A4, F1)