"it appears that the majority of people living in Crimea genuinely want to join Russia."

Yeah, I'm sure the presence of thousands of armed men had nothing to do with the outcome of that vote.

It has been pretty clear that the majority of the people in Crimea have wanted to join Russia for a while, and whilst the armed men may have put a few people off voting against it (although, in the style of people who know they'll lose everywhere, many of those against were boycotting the vote), it doesn't take away the fact that a hell of a lot of Crimeans said very clearly that they want to be Russian.

What happens now is we make a big show of waving a stick at Russia whilst offering them some pretty impressive carrots behind closed doors. Russia take the carrots, and we wonder quite what we've got out of the deal. The usual stuff.

Any vote where 95% are in favor of something is not a valid vote, imo. Bring up any major issue, and you'll always have more than 5% of people dissenting. Even in the Egyptian elections where the opposition boycotted the votes, Morsi got WAY less than 95% of them.

Add the fact that Russia began actively taking over Ukraine before the elections even began, and you have a very messy and undemocratic situation

So goldfinger, the votes in gibraltar and falklands were illegitimate? on something like independence for referendums you frequently get crazily high numbers. If the US had a vote now whether to be independent or not i daresay the vote would be over 95% too! I'm happy to wait and see what the election watch dogs say before i make my comment.

@ goldfinger: "Any vote where 95% are in favor of something is not a valid vote"

That's an incredibly bold claim. There were 135 international observers present, including a number of MEPs. If they declare the poll to have been fair, what then?

80% turn out seems pretty good to me (higher than most US elections). The quotes I have seen from foreign observers thus far have not indicated that the vote was fixed. However, like SD said, judgment should be reserved until election watch dogs have more time to report.

I dare say there has been plenty of activity that could raise a watchdog's eyebrows. The question alone is enough to cause concern. However I reckon that's more a case of bad habits than anything else. The sort of nonsense that creeps in when you live in a country where democracy isn't properly established because stupid things like armed uprisings keep happening.

I have no doubt at all, however, that the outcome of the referendum reflects the majority view of the people who live in Crimea. Quite how many oppose it, however, is somewhat more difficult to calculate.

I wasn't aware that there were observers there. As Octavious had said, it's likely that many people were either intimidated from going to the polls or chose to boycott the vote. But 10% of Crimea is Tartar, and I'm am definitely sure that they would not want to rejoin Russia.

Socrates - when the US wanted to become independent, about a third of the population actually wanted to separate from England. When the US Civil War happened, there were many, many people who wished for the Union to stay together, but only joined the rebellion because of their loyalty to their state.

As for the Falkland and Gibralter, you've got me there. But I'm more hesitant to believe in the validity of the poll where there is an armed invasion going on, which was rushed ahead of schedule, where a "No" option isn't even on the ballot (Yes, you can either vote yes or turn in a blank ballot.) Its one thing when 98% of a population of 2,000 or 20,000 is in favor of something. Its another thing when the population size is 2 million.

I'm sure the impact on the referendum of all the Ukrainian and Tatar refugees fleeing Crimea to escape the Russian invasion was negligible.

I'm also certain that a ballot where the choices were "declare independence from Ukraine" and "accept annexation by Russia" represents a true choice on the part of the inhabitants of Crimea, and is not at all a false dichotomy engineered by the aforesaid invading Russians to provide a post-hoc justification for the initial invasion.

I am absolutely confident that the imminent annexation of Crimea by Russia is completely justified.

None of you have any idea what you're talking about and it's hilarious.

Please, enlighten us then.

Well, there were in fact two options on the ballot: return to Crimea's status in the 1992 Ukrainian constitution or join the Russian Federation. And not all the 'observers' are really observers.

Oh great, another cat too cool for the fray, come to tell us how hilarious it is that we're all idiots.

Can I just blow you right now len? Please? You're sooooo cool.

Don't worry, I'm being purposefully inflammatory. But really, anyone who claims this referendum was legitimate is silly. Ignoring all the Russian soldiers around the place, you can't hold a democratic referendum in ten days.

In reference to thinking goldfinger's remark is slightly overstated, I will also point out that the South Sudan referendum of 2011 had over 95% of the people voting Yes. I think it was actually closer to 99% but I'm too lazy to google or wikipedia (is that a verb?) the final numbers. But no one called foul over it that I can recall. And South Sudan has quite a substantial population, so it's not like it's an isolated sheep-herding community in the South Atlantic or a single port town on the south coast of Spain. Of course, Sudan itself agreed to the referendum in 2011, agreed to respect its results, and let it go forward after about 25 years of civil war. They signed a treaty in advance and everything. SLIGHTLY different from the present circumstance.

South Sudan was 99.8% in favour, but as you say, the circumstances were quite different.

Also, in goldfinger's defense, he's spot on with his "Add the fact that Russia began actively taking over Ukraine before the elections even began, and you have a very messy and undemocratic situation." And thank you too, lenpw, for bringing this to our attention.

Lol @people saying its trickery and shit. If the people voted in favour of joining Russia, what's the problem? It's known that the overwhelming majority of the population is Russian anyways, and that they favour joining Russia.
While to some extent I am biased against Russia (being of Eastern European descent, we all dislike Russians....those bastards...), I have to admit that this is a justified move, and that the west needs to fuck off on this one.

Yeah, if a referendum were announced, say, six months from now and Crimea wasn't occupied by Russians, and there weren't militia milling about the streets, and voters lists were properly updated and people had time to make a decision and the referendum could be *properly* observed... well, that would be a very different story.

If Crimeans want to join Russia then that's their prerogative, but when it's a military invasion (in flagrant violation of international law) and a fraudulent referendum then it's completely unjustified.

Lol "International law". What I don't really understand, and what pisses me off is this new baby sitting "international community" BS attitude that has been adopted worldwide. Every country now has to have some say about the internal affairs of another. I would understand if the US would just simply be honest and say Ukraine is of strategic importance blah blah, instead they keep using this rhetoric about peoples rights violations etc, lol I'm certain the US cares about foreigners rights so much...

Just because state actors use it for political purposes doesn't mean it has no value. See also: domestic law.

Its growing much more serious, ILN. Maybe I was off on the referendum comment, because I'm not as well versed in modern history of independence movements and such, but you can't hold a referendum ten days after you announce it. You simply can't. In Egypt elections were rushed after Mubarak stepped down and even then they were held several months afterwards I believe. Ten days is ridiculous.

Back to the serious bit - there are increasing economic implications of this situation. The U.S. has released some of its oil reserves to drive the price of oil down, investors are tanking the ruble and the Russian stock markets (well, global stock markets are going down too). Russia's economy was already struggling with stagflation, so this is the last thing they need. Meanwhile Russia sold off over $100 billion in US Treasuries in retaliation. Its a slow escalation that we're seeing, and this referendum doesn't help.

The 80% number is a total giveaway. The only way these numbers could paso inky be true is if significant numbers of Ukrainians voted to join Russia given the Tatar boycott. These results are as fake as any soviet election

Possibly. Score another win for the idiot iphone

If they join Russia, we can all laugh at Putin33.

He'll just say that the wishes of the Crimeans were honoured.

The west have a real problem here. They may bluster all they like but they can't escape the fact that the people of crimea seem to want to be either independent or russian. Any solution must involve the will of the people. That may mean another referendum conducted under different circumstances so it will be perceived as free and fair, but any other solution means the west is backing up an illegal coup in favour of an illegal referendum.

Out of interest can anyone tell me if the west (or anyone) protested when 1 man gave part of 1 country to another? If we were happy then, why are we complaing about lack of democracy now?

1. I don't buy that vote as legitimate at all,

2. NO, Putin33--to anticipate your "Oh, you always side with the US/Western Europe" objection (forgetting for the moment you nearly always side with the East, but anyway)--I don't buy it as legit because...for fuck's sake, if I asked people if Putin and Obama were really human beings or alien mutant lizard wizard Jews from the planet Gallifrey here on a scouting mission I couldn't get 95% of people to agree on a position one way or another! Human beings DO NOT agree in 95% packs, ESPECIALLY on political matters, and especially one as divisive as this one...this is about as "legit" as Kim Jung-Un winning 100% of the vote in his recent election.

3. How ironic I was watching Ken Burns' "Civil War" when this whole Crimea situation broke out...secession leading to a bloody war...hopefully that's an omen, but then, Eastern Europe doesn't inspire confidence in me...nor does Big Bad Vlad...nor does Obama (sorry, I still like the guy and would still pick him over McCain or Romney as President, but his handling of this and other foreign policy issues DOES leave something to be desired--I think his two biggest "positive" legacies will be in the areas of civil rights reform and, of course, Obamacare, and whether or not you think THOSE are even positive can basically be split down party lines, but as that's an entirely different thread, I digress.)

4. I really, really, REALLY hope the Jews in Ukraine and especially any Jews in Crimea are getting out...NOW...this never ends well for us... :/