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Forum
A place to discuss topics/games with other webDiplomacy players.
Page 289 of 413
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zultar (4170 D Mod (P))
19 Dec 15 UTC
(+4)
On the first day of Xmas, my zultar gave to me
Joys and fun inside
255 replies
Open
Maniac (344 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
(+3)
Merry Xmas
On behalf of the co-site-owners, the other mods and myself, we'd like to wish you all a very merry Christmas.
17 replies
Open
sverreerik (100 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
Feel free to join my game!
Thought I would advertise this game here, not sure how quickly these things fill up on their own.

http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=171594
0 replies
Open
Maniac (344 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
Merry Xmas
On behalf of the co-site-owners, the other mods and myself, we'd like to wish you all a very merry Christmas.
3 replies
Open
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Country Drawing bug?
I've played 53 Classic games on this site. At this point, my country drawnig should be fair equal, right? Well here are the stats:
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
6/53 Germany
10/53 Turkey
7/53 Russia
9/53 England
12/53 Italy
7/53 France
2/53 Austria

I also noticed that I stopped drawing Austria after this one game got canceled when I was Austria due to meta/multi. Could this maybe have an effect? Does anyone else have am usually low draw rate for a country?
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
This really needs to be in the FAQ.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Am I missing something? Oh Great ATC, please share your infinite knowlesge with me
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
(+2)
"At this point, my country drawnig should be fair equal, right? "

No, that's not how that works.

However, there is a slight (slight!) weighting designed to even out the country draw. It works by rolling the most unbalanced player first, so if you're playing with people who've had a run of one country over another, then they'll get their country drawn first.

I haven't worked through it yet, but I suspect that this might make things worse.

"...after this one game got canceled...."

The country weighter remembers what countries you've started games as. So if you get shuffled, CD or have a game cancelled, that country still counts.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Thanks! A +1 for your time
Claesar (4313 D Mod)
24 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
Also, your stats look fairly balanced to me. A slight underrepresentation of Austria, but other than that well within the expectation of statistics.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Funny story. I think the country balancer has been broken for everyone with a userID higher than 54227, or since July 2013.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
It looks like everyone who registered after July 7th 2013 has had random country selections.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
misrepresentation of Austria by 3 standard deviations.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
The point is more that we don't actually expect your country stats to even out over time given random selections.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
^lol disregard that, miscalculation. It's late but it is misrepresented by a lot. I guess with the added canceled game it's not as bad.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Also true. Just wanted to get a good picture of how the drawing process works and why that might be. Thanks again.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
I expressed that badly. The law of large numbers suggests that yes, over a sufficiently large number of games, you'd expect reasonably proportionately even country statistics.

However, I don't expect that you'll play a sufficiently large number of games on webDiplomacy. I think the number of games required is more in the 1000s than in the 100s.

Probability isn't really my area though - maybe someone with more knowledge wants to correct me.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Unfortunately, it looks like the weighting process is broken for both of us (and everyone above userID=54277) -there's a bug that causes our weights to be initialised even every time. I discovered this when I was looking up your country weights.

However, this in turn means that since it IS working for users with a lower ID, if you're playing with them, you're being pushed around a bit by their unbalanced weights.

We should probably fix this.
2ndWhiteLine (3375 D (B))
24 Dec 15 UTC
There will be a detailed explanation in my my new FAQ once we figure out how it actually works in practice.
orathaic (1009 D (B))
24 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
"misrepresentation of Austria by 3 standard deviations."

Shouldn't that also be expected.

In fact, for a large enough player base, some players will be expected to have a few standard deviations off... Because that is also how statistics work.

Now if all players are unbalanced in their country draws, then something is wrong. But there ahould be a way to measure the distribution of how unbalanced... Yeah.
So players who joined before July 2013 should have a fairly equal number or draws for each country?
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
Lol at the expense of the newer player. Is this some sort of pecking order?
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
Actually yozo, i think the newer player just ends up with a random country. Which will still balance out over time... Just more slowly than the intended algorithm.

I don't think it is unfair - but it is a bug.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
@orathaic
but it's not random. If you have a game with old players and new players, the older player get their countries first, which may or may not have an effect on the countries that are drawn by the new players. So, no not random.
A_Tin_Can (2244 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
Yoyo is correct- this bug makes it worse for newer players, although not predictably (unless you know who you're playing with ahead of time).
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
No, the old players will also have a random distributiOn of countries, so unless you pick and choose opponents based on which countries they have played...

All the factors are still random.

I'd imagine newer players will have their results more skewed away from average, and once a fix is made will he pushed back towards it fastest of all (which may result in non-random behaviour, like the example above of 2 austrias out of 53 games could get austria three times in a row)

So technically this could be exploited... But the amount of work to payoff isn't worth it.
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
*be, not he.
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
The old players don't have a random distribution. The chances are slightly altered so that the chances of you draw a country that is underrespresented is higher. Therefore, depending on the player, the old player could be "taking" the country away from a new player, even if the old player's country distribution is only slightly off and the new players are WAAYY off (because the new players do not have the country-draw balance mechanism)
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
Think about it this way, if I play a game with 6 old players (I am a new player) and just 1 of them is underepresented in Austria by a certain degree, They will take Austria and I will not take Austria, even if I haven't played as Austria in over 30 games.
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
That's not how the system works.

If they have a slight weight towards austria, they will have a slightly higher chance of picking austria, and you will have a slightly lower.

But you're also missing my point. If they all have a certain weight towards some country and select first. Maybe you are then guaranteed turkey (based on their weights, and picking last.) but if they have been picked at random from all the older players, the which exact weights they have will be random. So whether it is turkey or an other country you are forced into playing, it will still be random. And eventually your forced picks will balanced each other out in this random process (but over many more games than it would take with the algorithm working)
Jeff Kuta (2066 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
OK. I just got Austria like 4 times in the past 5 games. My ID is high enough to be reinitialized every time. :/
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
You can Only make the players non-random by working out their weights and selecting them - but because of the algorithm, they should all be close to balanced and you will find it hard to pick opponents who actually force a country...

In fact, even if the algorithm is working perfectly, you could choose opponents who had a certain weight for certain countries and guarantee that you had a lower than average run of any given country. (Though in the long term, you'd eventually be the most unbalanced player on the site and there would be nobody left to choose...)
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
That was an oversimplication.
The point of what I was saying is that the old players distort the chances of getting countries by new players.
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
Yes, and distirted chances mean it is a weighted random... Which is still random.
Yonni (201 D (S))
25 Dec 15 UTC
You mean like this?

http://imgur.com/iDonxJR
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
25 Dec 15 UTC
Lol you and your technicalities. Whatever you want to call it, it caused a distorted country draw distribution.
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
But am i right in saying an immediate fix will dramatically change country choices for a while?
orathaic (1009 D (B))
25 Dec 15 UTC
I don't even know if that is better.


34 replies
MrcsAurelius (3051 D (B))
18 Nov 15 UTC
(+1)
I love world games. Join me!
I really love world games, it's because the map is round (no corner powers) and you have neighbors all around you that you have to befriend or strategically piss off. The balance of the map is reasonable and is compensated by the added challenge of neighbors360. What's not to like?
142 replies
Open
Smokey Gem (184 D)
23 Dec 15 UTC
Worst Joke wednesday
How many cats does it take to change a light Bulb ??

None ...cats can see in the dark .. :-)
40 replies
Open
ssorenn (0 D X)
18 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
Webdip wish list
The holidays are a time for giving and receiving, what's at the top of your list?
29 replies
Open
brainbomb (325 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Who could resist Jingle Cats
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHI8M1K2LXs
0 replies
Open
brainbomb (325 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Selena Gomez vs Avril Lavigne
Who wins in a weapons allowed cage fight?
9 replies
Open
leon1122 (170 D)
24 Dec 15 UTC
Pause game
Mods, please pause gameID=171307 . It took a long time to organize, but it seems that at least 1 player has not shown up.
2 replies
Open
WizardsofBoz (100 D)
23 Dec 15 UTC
Any Clique out there?
I set up a game for the Clique if there are any out there! |-/
1 reply
Open
Zach0805 (100 D)
23 Dec 15 UTC
I'm Back (In a limited way)
After taking a 4-5 month break I will be playing diplomacy again in a very limited way
See you on the board
0 replies
Open
Yoyoyozo (182 D)
23 Dec 15 UTC
Join my unranked game!
Come test out your crazy strategies in this unranked game:
http://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?gameID=171511
6 replies
Open
Gobbledydook (1389 D (B))
23 Dec 15 UTC
Sum of squares gunboat 1
gameID=171506
Come test the new Sum of Squares scoring! 50 point buy in gunboat!
Discuss the scoring method here too.
1 reply
Open
BlackHand (154 D)
22 Dec 15 UTC
Approximately what percentage of players on this site are female?
Also, have any of the males pretended to be female to gain trust or to keep from getting stabbed?

Sorry if this has been asked before.
22 replies
Open
2ndWhiteLine (3375 D (B))
10 Dec 15 UTC
Best Music of 2015
As above, be-low.
19 replies
Open
Smokey Gem (184 D)
22 Dec 15 UTC
Whatt is MAFIA games in Webdip ??
Can anyone give info on the mafia games ?? Is it private locked only available to some ??
8 replies
Open
wjessop (100 D X)
15 Dec 15 UTC
South China Sea: Chinese new island land reclamation
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-35031313

Thoughts? What are the Chinese preparing for with all of this land reclamation and military expansion? Is this purely defensive? Or may this be leading to military action?
68 replies
Open
steephie22 (182 D (S))
20 Dec 15 UTC
Designed By
What's better:
Designed by (Name of Designer)
Designed by (Company Name)
So should you name the person who designed it or the company for which the designer works?
27 replies
Open
brainbomb (325 D)
22 Dec 15 UTC
Selena Gomez vs Ariana Grande
Who wins in a cage battle
10 replies
Open
Jamiet99uk (443 D)
17 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
I've just eaten a bacon and cheese pastry
It was tasty.
30 replies
Open
Hellenic Riot (1619 D (G))
19 Dec 15 UTC
Mod Team Announcement
See inside
51 replies
Open
sangil (1043 D)
22 Dec 15 UTC
game "Classic-114"
Dear Moderator (@peterwiggin)
can you please unpause this game?
thanks
the players
3 replies
Open
Chaqa (4228 D (B))
17 Nov 15 UTC
(+2)
Lusthog
Anyone down for another round of Lusthog? I'm thinking like three games.

42 replies
Open
brainbomb (325 D)
21 Dec 15 UTC
(+2)
My Tinder account is blowing up
Just got another super match. (makes cash register noise)
28 replies
Open
Al Swearengen (0 D X)
21 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
An easy way to make a difference
Subscribe to a newspaper. Support investigative journalism. Make the press less dependent on advertisers.
5 replies
Open
VashtaNeurotic (2394 D)
20 Dec 15 UTC
(+1)
What Anime Should I Watch Next?
Not sure how much of webdip watches anime, but I may as well take recommendations. Currently my list of next to watch is (some may be abrreviated): Terror in Resonance, Rage of Bahamat: Genesis, Durarara!, The Mightiest Disciple, Seven Deadly Sins and Log Horizon. Also, please given reasons for any suggestions, whether they are on my list or not. Thanks.
20 replies
Open
shield (3929 D)
21 Dec 15 UTC
Replacement needed.
0 replies
Open
Jamiet99uk (443 D)
18 Dec 15 UTC
30% of Republican voters in favour of bombing fictional locations
http://www.itv.com/news/2015-12-18/one-in-three-republican-primary-voters-support-bombing-aladdins-home-of-agrabah/

This made me chuckle.
80 replies
Open
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