"an anathema to savings and investment. Low, stable, and predictable inflation, or price stability, makes planning consumption and investment easier for businesses and investors easier. The benefits of well-anchored inflation expectations includes the ability of businesses and consumers to make long-term, productive plans. "
but with Interest at an all time low (as of 2012) and inflation at a 69 year low (as of 2008) this theory has been proven to be bogus. Carney (governor of the bank of Canada, Canada's equivalent to Ben Bernanke) has stated repeatedly that he would like to hike interest rates but keeps lower them because he wants businesses to spend rather then hoard. I think this is part of the problem because he has said that once they start spending, he will increase interest rates, making it game theory, best outcome is for you to save and your opponents to spend. Worst outcome is for everyone to save. Well because the best outcome is to save, everyone chose to save and we got stuck with the worst outcome.
So buisnesses aren't spending enough as it is, so therefore the theory of stable inflation falls flat, because there is massive uncertainty in the economy already.
"I'm sympathetic to the view that somewhat more inflation would reduce unemployment, but recognize that central bank's make a conscious (and reasonable) trade-off between the risk of instability and unemployment in their commitment to low and stable inflation."
However unemployment isn't a problem in Canada, its 1.1% above historic levels, compared to the 3.6% for USA or the 3.2% for the EU. So I guess that's another problem to consider, we don't want to get into the problem of over employment. However fiscal policy can change that. One way to do that is increase the minimum wage and unemployment insurance decreasing the incentive for people to find jobs, as well as for companies to higher. This would also mean the lower and middle classes would be effected less then the rich from high inflation as it would force companies to increase their salaries. Middle class families would also have the advantage have there debt being worth less, meaning higher prices wouldn't be to problematic.
I really don't see the problem with inflation being the solution to this problem. But again, I'm first year economics with the only economics course under my belt so far being Econ 101. So I am to claiming to know everything.
"There are a few issues with your proposed solution, though. First, your households are holding a lot of debt. This, presumably, means that they are reluctant to spend."
Household spending to after tax income was 151% in 2011 and granted is lower this year, it is still vastly higher then it should be. With interest rates being below the rate of inflation for 3 straight years, the incentive to spend is high. The 2012 rate was lower We consumers are looking at the short term incentives and spending as much money as the banks are willing to loan us, meanwhile corporations are looking at the long term knowing full well that this is unsustainable and are starting to save, even though this is reducing AD and AS decreasing the chance of stable economic growth causing a further incentive to save. The normal solution to this is low interest rates, but we have tried this for 4 straight years and it isn't working. We cut corporate tax rates from 22.5% to 15% to increase corporate profits to give them an incentive to spend, but instead of using that money, either by giving it back to the investors through dividends or buy expanding their operations, they just put it in a bank. They created lots of incentives to expand which I can't remember the full details on. Forbes magazine rated Canada's government the most business friendly government in the world in 2011 (and the opposition attacked our government for that in the 2011 election) as well as rated Canada the most business friendly environment in 2011, yet companies cited potential future economic uncertainty as a reason not to take advantage of how business friendly we were.
They now have more money in the bank, then our government has debt.
"Canada needs people to spend money, but they won't, either because they're reluctant to run up more debt (unlikely) or that the recession is crippling demand (more likely). It's not a confidence problem (imaginary), it's a demand problem."
But its not really. As explained above, our government and our households have spent every penny they could, to make up for the fact to business investment dropped 21% last year (despite after tax profits rising 30%). Despite that we still had economic growth of 2.9%, far higher then most developed economies. As banks are becoming more reluctant to loan (as many households now have debts that are triple our after tax income) the consumers can no longer take on additional debt and our government as its already doing everything in its power to boost aggregate demand without taking on unsustainable debt as a result our GDP growth is declining as more money is getting stuck in the liquidity trap. Economists (namely from what I read in the economist and globe and mail) generally agree with the policies our government is federal government is implementing and the reason they are not working is despite being considered the most business friendly environment in the world, has businesses that are not spending.
"Central banks have a few ways to spark spending, and hence spark demand - monetary and fiscal policy."
Central banks don't control fiscal policy. Fiscal policy is government taxes and spending, monetary police is the central bank domain, controlling money supply and interest rates.
"The main goal of any central bank is to control inflation, even at the expense of demand. For proof of this, see the 1980-81 recession in the United States, when we had terrible monetary inflation that led to the Fed imposing drastic cuts in monetary policy. As a result, it sparked a pretty bad recession, all at the expense of inflation. Central banks just don't want to cause inflation, period. Plus, it's very unpopular politically. Inflation hawks won't want to print more money because we'll owe China blah blah blah crap excuses like that. It won't happen, even if it is a prudent idea."
The difference between the states and Canda though is our government debt isn't in a bad situation. We're predicted to balance the budget by 2014 and our federal governments debt per capita is 1/3 of the states. Because inflation will likely mean higher interest rates on treasury bonds (making it harder for government to take on new debt, but decreases the value of old debt)
"so that people buy stuff, moose hats or hockey sticks or whatever."
I love your perception of Canadians. Adding timbits would make your list complete and make up 90% of our economy (with Igloos and dogsleds being that final 10%).
"What Canada has right now is a liquidity trap. If you're a first year econ student, you probably haven't gotten to this yet, but a liquidity trap occurs when interest rates are so low that monetary policy has no effect."
Yeah I really haven't. However its only a partial liquidity trap because only the businesses are saving, not everyone.
"Any fluctuation in the monetary base will ultimately not cause prices to fall, which means the C$ weakens but prices do not drop accordingly, so people effectively need to spend more money for the same products."
This is why I want inflation. high inflation will encourage spending as your money will be worth less tomorrow but at the same time will decrease the value of your debt (which we have to much of). Sure high inflation causes uncertainty, but there is already so much uncertainty, if it can spark spending, why not try it?
"In the US, our monetary base essentially tripled between 8/2008 and 6/2011 without any discernible effect on prices (http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/07/way-off-base-2/)."
I know that money supply doesn't equal inflation. The equation we have used in class is Price=Money Supply*Money Velocity (speed of spending)/Real GDP
obviously with a liquidity trap velocity is down because people are refusing to spend. However Real GDP would be down because of the increase in savings and my proposal is increasing the money supply. If we double the amount of money in supply, assuming new change to real GDP or consumer confidence, price level would be double.