two weeks is a long time...

Let the healing begin. ;)

I'm not coming after Sybyl, krellin...it IS possible to civilly disagree with someone, you see.

I know that's an alien concept to you, but still.

Anyway:

Indiana and NC I'll give you.
Florida is still a toss-up, but it may go Romney, I agree.
But he can't win without Ohio.
Even Romney has said so.

Obama has 237 prospective EC votes without Ohio; with, it's 258, and then just needs one or two small states.

VA and CO can still go his way, the latter being more likely...
NV looks to go blue again...
Pennsylvania will go blue...
The others, yep, they're tossups, I agree.

I'm not saying Romney won't win--he very well might.

I AM saying...

Don't start that Wikipedia entry just yet, this one will come down to the wire, barring another 47% comment or a similar screw-up by Obama.

Obama is focusing all his efforts in Ohio, Va, and the smaller swing states right now...
Romney will likely take VA and very possibly FL and a couple others...

And is hoping and praying Todd Akin doesn't open his mouth again. ;)

And as much as I hate to tout this point again...

http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/Politics/polls-underestimating-effect-latino-voters/story?id=17544858#.UIcNZMW-jDQ

If a race like Florida or Nevada goes down to the wire...

That Latino Vote could be BIG for Obama.

The state that matters is Ohio and both of them know it. Nothing is decided.

Wait I thought the polls were BIASED? Now all of a sudden the Repugs like polls?

Im not afollowing left wingnut as you call them krellin. Im an independent straight through. But there's no way in hell I would vote for Romney. We'll have to see how the rest of my fellow Ohions go.

I hate typing on a cell.

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-romney-now-tied-presidential-race-reuters-ipsos-003822262.html

Well, biased or no, reuters has the essentially tied, with Obama now ahead 1 point, but due to the margin of error, that's essentially a tie...

So yeah.

Don't pop that Top-2%-priced champagne just yet, Romneyites... ;)

Also, because I simply must:

The "4th" Presidential Debate:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dX_1B0w7Hzc

For fun. :p

Most polls in greater Cincinnati are predominately Republican, but that is the nature of this city.

Still, Latinos in Florida support Romney.
Obama can't win Virginia--where there are so many millitary families
He can't win Pennsylvania--Bankrupt
Ditto for Michigan.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker was elected, and reelected. Romney will get that too.
Ohio could go either way. But if Romney wins PA, NC, IN, VA, FL, CO, and WI he won't need it.

When's the last time the media didn't report a presidential election as "a virtual tie", even when the end result was a blowout?

TV Snoose and Newspapers need viewers/readers to turn a profit. No one is going to tune in for an election that isn't close enough to merit watching.

"Meanwhile, all the states that went for the GOP in 2008 are Solid Romney."

You do realize Obama utterly smashed McCain in the electoral vote in 2008, right? Having 173 EVs "solidly Romney" means absolutely nothing. Indiana, Virginia and NC were all bonuses that nobody expected Dems to get in 2008. Winning back Indiana, a state that is almost Utah like in its loyalty to the GOP, is like Dems bragging about winning back Massachussets. Keep spewing Fox News talking points though.

Nate Silver still has Obama's chance of winning as 70%. To my knowledge, he does a pretty good job with this kind of stuff. But if you want a completely unbiased free market source, just check intrade, which has Obama's chances at 57%!

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

And if you think that is way off, I encourage you to trade on it!

Rasmussen now has Romney ahead, and it was right on the mark in 2008. It's still too early to really know who will win, but Romney has had the momentum since that first debate. Time's running out for the president to stop him. And frankly, if Romney really is ahead then I don't know what the president can do to bring those voters back to him at this stage.


Democrats shouldn't hang on to the hope of an electoral win while losingt he popular vote either. Not only has that never happened to a sitting president running for reelection, it would mean Obama would have no political capital to do anything for the next four years. But I think that, like almost always, the winner of the office will win both the popular and electoral votes.

You neglect that Obama's down from around 80% just last month on Intrade, uclabb. As I say, it's too soon to say for sure who will win, but Romney definitely has the momentum and that means a lot.

Invictus- Momentum isn't a thing in trading. If the 57% figure is wrong, people will trade on it. Why don't you go trade on it?

http://www.xkcd.com/1122/

Isn't that illegal?

I mean momentum generally. You can't say Romney hasn't been riding high since the first debate.

Funny link, Jamiet99uk, but my point was that it would be a disaster for Obama if he were reelected on the electoral vote even if Romney won decisively in the popular vote. And not just him, but the country. It won't happen, though.

Sure Invictus, I just thought people following this thread might enjoy the cartoon anyway.

As close as polls say the two candidates are, in reality, the odds of Romney getting to 270 electoral votes is slim to none, from my view. Look at the battleground states from a practical point of view. Lets, for sake of argument, assume:

Florida and New Hampshire go Romney
Colorado and Nevada go Obama

Puts Obama at 216 and Romney at 224.

Leaving Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and North Carolina. Romney needs to get 56 of those 98 votes (assuming Maine and Nebraska don't split).

RealClear has Obama up in Ohio by 5 and Pennsylvania by either 3 or 5, in either case, likely outside the margin of error. Obama takes both for a total of 254.

Meaning Romney realistically needs to get BOTH N. Carolina and Virginia, which puts him at 252 and needs to win 2/3 of Michigan, Iowa, and Wisconsin. They're tied in Iowa, Obama is up within the MOE in Wisconsin, and he is gradually increasing his lead in Michigan.

Going to be very difficult for Romney to fight back at this point in time.

But hey, maybe the $366 million Romney has spent on ads might swing things for the two dozen undecided voters in the Midwest.

Seriously, it must be annoying as fuck for TV viewers in battleground states. I think I've seen two or three campaign commercials in Albany, all for Obama. Romney isn't even bothering to spread his message to NY.

"Not only has that never happened to a sitting president running for reelection"

http://xkcd.com/1122/

"He can't win Pennsylvania--Bankrupt"

Leaning blue and will go blue

@invictus- i think it's possible this "momentum" thing you are talking about can account for the difference between Nate Silver's 70% number and intrade's 57. But the whole point of prediction market is that they let the wisdom of the crowd account for everything, including "momentum."

@ ghug - I already posted that link. Pay attention.

uclabb, that intrade site is pretty neat...it provides a more liquid market than i expected. not sure i'd agree with you that "momentum isn't a thing in training," though...i don't think any market is completely rational or has priced in all existing information.

*trading

nate silver is definitely a must read for anyone interested in the election outcome, or just statistics in general. he definitely brings up a lot of points about polling and the electoral college that you don't see other places. although i think he consistently overstates obama's chance....and it looks like most people agree with me, at least according to intrade.

Sbyvl: "Obama can't win Virginia--where there are so many millitary families"

Military votes aren't as reliably Republican as they used to be.

@obi,

"But he can't win without Ohio.
Even Romney has said so."

Um, no he hasn't. He's been pretty clear about thinking he COULD win without it. But obviously it's the main way.

@2wl,

"RealClear has Obama up in Ohio by 5"

Um, no they don't. They have him up by 1.9. Bit of a difference there, no?

Anyway, since everybody's chiming in with analysis, I might as well add to the general din of ignorance....

Indiana is of course going to vote for Romney, as will Omaha. North Carolina will too, and it seems increasingly likely Virginia will too. I think it's very likely Romney wins Florida too (even Silver has that at 67.5%). And of course, Obama wins Pennsylvania and Michigan, notwithstanding the GOP's fond hopes and dreams. So that puts us at 248-237 Romney.

So this pretty much comes down to Ohio. I have no idea who's going to win Ohio, because Obama has a narrow lead, and Romney has the momentum with two weeks left. I think it will be exceptionally close and if I said I could call it, I'd just be making stuff up. I also think anybody else who thinks they can call it is just making stuff up. So all I can do is go through why it's so crucial.

Say Romney wins Ohio. Then he's at 266 and needs one of (Nevada, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Iowa). The odds of one of those going for him are pretty high, especially in a world where he just won Ohio. Probably New Hampshire and Colorado.

Oh, this would probably be a good time to mention that I think Romney _probably_ wins Colorado. It'll be close, and no question the Hispanic issue obi highlighted makes it even harder to call. But Romney's had a lot of momentum there lately, he's pretty much tied it up, and his momentum continues to increase his lead very slowly. So while CO is harder to call than any of those I've put in his camp so far, I'll assume it goes Romney in future analysis. This puts us at 257-237 Romney, sans Ohio (and Romney winning with Ohio).

What if Obama wins Ohio? Then we're at 255-248 Obama (or 257-255 Romney, with Colorado). So that's not so bad, right? Romney's a little ahead still. Problem is, his options from there are pretty scant. He's still decently likely to win New Hampshire, making it 261-255. But I don't think his odds of taking Wisconsin are very good at all, especially in a world where he lost Ohio. And so it's 265-261 Obama. Then Obama just needs one of (Iowa, Nevada). I think Romney's chances of winning both of those are pretty slim, so Obama takes it down.

So there is pretty much the state of the election, and why I think anybody who purports to know what is going to happen is wrong. (Not necessarily wrong about what's going to happen, but wrong that their reasons justify their confidence).

Guys, as someone from Virginia, I can quite clearly tell you that Obama has a fair chance here. From Richmond to D.C. lies a strip of middle to upper class suburbs and cities that hold strong support for both candidates. The areas we do have affected by military Conservatism holds plenty of working class citizens who still hold skepticism towards Romney. Ultimately, Romney has significantly more support than Obama, but with enough campaigning, Obama could have swung Virginia his way.

Well, KA, I think we all know Virginia is a close swing state that could go either way -- whether we're from there or not. It's just that polls in recent weeks have suggested it's moving more toward Romney at this moment. Obviously, could go either way.