This is probably the longest post I ever made, so you guys have every right to be like tl;dr.
Here are my actual thoughts during the game. I haven't edited anything, so it is a bit incoherent. But it shows my thought proces, which may be interesting.
Spring 1901: I didn't want to play EF, since I'd always have to worry about France moving Mao-Iri at some point. I wanted to play together with Russia. I saw how great the results could be in
gameID=64209. Germany and Russia both reacted well to my ideas, so I decided to open to the channel.
Fall 1901: Russia/Germany/England is happening, great! I have entered the channel, and now I really want to take Brest. I've proposed to go Eng-Bel, which discourages France to move Bur-Bel, and encourages Mao-Por. I am also luring Italy and France towards playing Tyr-Mun with support. If all works out, France will get 1 build (A Par), and I get 2. And Germany won't be building fleets in a ERG alliance. I'm unsure of Russia, though. He could build in Stp, and the shit hits the fan...
Builds 1901: The most important phase of the game, deserving of more credit than it usually gets. My mission so far has been to make sure France, Germany and Russia don't build fleets. With France I have succeeded, with Germany I might, and with Russia I'm not sure. He has foolishly left only Mos&Stp empty, and now he needs to waive a build. He hasn't played much to the point, so he might fail this small task.
Spring 1902: What a devious player that Italian is! It's probably Draugnar. I've single-handedly set up a true northern triple, we're blitzing France and Austria, and now he screws it all up! I need to re-engage in diplomacy with everyone, try to find out what's happening, and how to react. If only he had waited until after France dies. If he lives, that guy is gonna be so pissed... Time for a cunning plan.
Fall 1902: Eden took over for me, made a solid move, and confirmed my alliance with Germany.
Spring 1903: I'm going to take Paris or Mao now (unless he finds the only counter). Germany is trying to move Ruh-Kie, Bel-Ruh. If it fails, hopefully I'll have a retreat to Belgium.
Fall 1903: Paris is mine, and Mao is going to be mine soon. Germany will take Munich, but he can't build. Maybe he'll even lose Berlin. That would be great. I'm happy with Italy in Gal, as long as he harrasses Russia, I don't have to worry about Norway. Just a few more moves, and Germany and I can take Stp and Sweden.
Fall 1904: I fucked up my convoy, great. For what it's worth, it succeeded in the fall. Marseilles was a good gamble, though not so hard with France's obvious play. I am actually doing really great. I'm leading the board! Should I start thinking about solos already? Nah, let's just play nice for a while. Stab Russia, use Germany and Turkey as allies, then stab Germany for the solo, or a two-way with Turkey. Yeah, that sounds right.
Fall 1905: A difficult decision is to be made. Should I stab Germany, or not? I can go Bel-Hol, Nth-Hel, Eng-Nth. Germany gets no builds, maybe even a disband, and I get 3. Next year I'm almost guaranteed to take Kiel and Denmark, propelling me to 13. But the question is, can i still solo from that position? I think it all depends on Turkey. If he keeps tight with Russia, I'm not getting past the stalemate line. But if he stabs Russia, I may get chances.
Fall 1906: So, that was a wild year. Germany stabs me, which was stupid. Turkey makes a brilliant move with Italy, but it falls apart immediately. I may be getting renewed chances to solo. Italy's reacted positively to my plan of giving him Tunis. If he gets Tun, I can keep it in his possesion until the endgame. Then Italy has no other options in the endgame than to throw the game to me.
Spring 1907: Starting to get doubts... Turkey is angry. I've made up a complete rubbish story about Tunis, and he doesn't seem to buy it. Most problematic thing: Italy isn't playing nice. They all vote draw, and Italy starts pushing me to hit the draw button. I need him to be desperate, but I also need him in Tunis. Russia just royally screwed up his orders. A complete NMR, except for moving his units close to me.
Have a made a mistake in helping Italy? It felt like a golden opportunity, but maybe it'll backfire. Only time will tell...
Fall 1907: Exciting times. Germany stopped talking, but I'm going to eliminate him anyway, so I don't care. Turkey is reaching out big time. He sounds sincere, and he wrote like two pages of text. I don't understand what the point of that would be if he doesn't intend to make peace. Italy's still a wildcard. His play with two units is almost as agressive as with the five he once had. I like his style. It's probably not optimal, but it makes for exciting games.
Bottom line: if my diplomacy works out, I'll end the turn with two builds. If not, I might even end with two disbands. A scary thought...
Fall 1908: Phew. Germany and Italy made some non-moves. Russia attacks me, which was anticipated. But most importantly, Turkey and I are back on track! Italy will be eliminated this year, Germany will be reduced to Mun/Ber/Mar, and Turkey will gain two. Turkey's talking about a two-way. If he's serious, this game may end very well for me...
Fall 1909: A disappointing end. Turkey doesn't have the spirit to continue for a two-way. I don't know if this is a good decision or not. It depends on how communication between him and Russia has developed. I'm quite curious to see the EOG statements there.
There remains only one chance: Germany has offered support into Munich if I promise not to attack Berlin. It could be the final trick of a player facing elimination, but maybe it's an opportunity. I could offer to leave Marseilles, thus giving him to units to play around with. If he then uses those armies in my favor...
Spring 1910: Germany is my puppet. Great! And Turkey did the stab! If I play this correctly, I should be able to win. There is no way that Turkey can eliminate Russia, convince Germany to defend a hopeless position, and gain his two-way. The question I should be asking right now is not "How can i win?", but "What can stop me from winning?". I like the sound of that. Still, it's a pity for Lando. He deserved his part in a two-way. But what can you do?
Fall 1910: Lando made a better move than I gave him credit for. Moving Bud-Gal was really very clever. I guess this proves why he consistently wins gunboats, and I fail at the endgame. He tells me they have a stalemate line, which probably means they do. Let's just hope Lando isn't the kind of player that keeps a small country in the draw just to spite the big power.
Spring 1911 and onwards: I consider this the end of my game. Stratagos took over from me, and made a four-way out of it, which is kinda disappointing from a GR perspective, but I don't really care.
There were some specific questions posed to me.
From Ursa: at the time you guys stabbed me in 1905 I still was going along with the alliance. So, why? :(
You didn't stab Turkey in 1904, and you were starting to grow big and scary. I figured if I waited any longer, I would not be able to come out on top so easily. Also, I had no target anymore, so I had to choose whether to stab you or Germany. I hesitated a long time, but decided it would fit my diplomatic purposes better to have Germay as an ally. In the spirit of Machiavelli: protect the weak, and crush the strong.
From Ursa: you feared I would stab you in 1903. Why?
Because it would have been a great move. If you, Italy and France set up your own triple, you would have me and Germany out of position to react, and Austria/Turkey too much at war to create a counter-alliance. You would have had tactical and strategical advantage.
From Lando: How did you presume to get a solo out of this game when I always had a stalemate line?
Being handed it on a silver platter. It was clear (from my perspective at least), that both Russia and Germany had no hope whatsoever of joining in a draw. Why would they hold your stalemate line? Had I been playing until the end, I would have retreated, and allowed you to swallow them up. So they had to choose between survive or defeat. Unfortunately for me, Germany had no problem being eliminated, and Russia wasn' t responding all that much.
Or, if you hadn't made your excellent fall 1910 move, but the obvious take Sev+Bud, you would never hve been able to set up the line in time.
What am I proud of?
- Not stabbing Germany in 1905. It was very tempting, but in the end I decided to keep
- Playing a solid strategical game. At the end of 1901, it was clear that the main theater was going to be the center of the board. This could only benefit me and Turkey. We had a very great long-distance relationship going, and never lost control , except to each other.
What do I reget about this game?
- Misordering twice. The first one was manageable, the second may well have cost me the game.
- Misjudging Italy. I thought he would take my offer on Tunis (and rightly so!), instead the only thing that happened was that Turkey got angry.
- Being too optimistic/underestimating Lando. Reading through my notes, I see I expected to win, when Lando could easily have stopped me (and did). Kudos, Lando!
There is one thing I want to clear up. I'm not an emotional player. I'm a cold-hearted calculating stabber. I stab if I think it gives me victory, if it doesn't, I delay the stab. In 1907, when I stabbed Turkey for the first time, this was the reason. I knew getting Tunis would be crucial to getting the solo, and I should not waste any chance to do so. It meant stabbing a long-term ally, but the solo is worth it. However, this is not the attitude one should portray when negotiating a two-way. SO I feigned to be emotional, I played the 'honour' card big time, in the hope that Lando would have faith to continue for a two-way if and when my attack failed.
Was this a good show? Were you fooled? Most of all, Lando, did my attitude during the Italy/Tunis encounter influence your decision to stab Russia? Would you still have done it if I said what I just said above?
Finally, I would like to give some advice. I don't know if you want it, but here goes.
- democ: Be more creative. Your moves and diplomacy were predictable, which makes you a target. If you do something weird, you can take the initiave, and dominate the game. Take a lesson from Draugnar.
- Tusky: talk more. I didn't receive any message from you during the entire game.
- Ursa: Try to play more aggressive. You didn't stab me, or Turkey, or Germany for the most part. You could have taken the initiave, whereas now, you ceded it to me (and later Turkey).
- patizcool: Nothing to add. You played well, but you were unlucky. Italy's attack in 1902 made you diplomatically and tactially dependent on me, and everyone knew how that was going to end. There was not much you could have done.
- Lando: play more press games. I played you a couple of times in gunboats, which was impressive, but it's much more fun to talk. And you're quite good at it, too.
- Draugnar: This is a hard one. You have everything to be a top player. You are creative, you answer communication punctually, and your tactics are solid. I think you should play more strategical, with a bit more long-term vision. Creative tactics are cool, but they are useless without a bigger plan, if you want to win. Aside from that, try flattery. It really works. Diplomacy players tend to have big egos, and stroking them every once in a while can do no harm. You called me a bold face liar, childish, and an elitist. While most of this is true (I plead guilty to two out of three), what purpose does it serve to tell me this? I only get put off by it.