I feel like this thread has a political bias.

Is Theresa Villier's position not one of representing the British government in Northern Ireland, as opposed to representing Northern Irish people in Westminster (which is the job of their elected politicians.)

You seem confused... Also her position on a referendum where everyone British and Irish (and common wealth) citizen resident in the UK will be voting is her own. Every one of them gets to vote.

Perhaps i should move back to Bristol, and see about voting...

I think it should be a mutual concern.

In her statement she does exactly as you say and makes it about her own personal, "emotional" decision.

I'd just think she could have at least acknowledged Northern Ireland, but she really doesn't care. As she herself acknowledged in an interview, when she was given the Northern Ireland brief, her first thought was "oh shit".

@ wjessop

Your efforts to bend reality to fit your own personal narrative are really quite impressive at times. This is a free vote. No-one is representing anyone and our only duty is to our principles and beliefs. It is democracy at its purest. Enjoy it :).

I don't often take the same side as Octavious in debates about UK politics but I'm in danger of doing so here. Wjessop, in terms of democracy and representation, Theresa Villiers is the Member of Parliament for Chipping Barnet (a constituency in England). People in Chipping Barnet are actually the ones who voted her into parliament. If she has a duty to consider the majority view of a group of voters, she should be more concerned about whether voters in Chipping Barnet wish to remain in the EU.

As Orathaic correctly states, as Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, her role is to provide an interface between the UK Government and administrative bodies in Northern Ireland, not to represent Northern Ireland's voters.

Northern Ireland elects its own MPs to Westminster, and also has a devolved assembly. Those representatives are the ones who have a duty to advocate on behalf of voters in Northern Ireland. Westminster MPs representing Northern Irish constituencies should indeed consider the views of their electorate, as well as the policy put forward by their own party, when taking a position on this particular matter.

Given that polls everywhere have leads for the Stay side, I'm afraid that you could extrapolate that to say that nobody should be arguing to leave.

The Northern Irish are also a lot more ambivalent on EU membership than the Scottish, given that the significant Unionist parties are both eurosceptics (DUP and UUP), and neither Sinn Fein nor the SDLP are particularly pro-Europe either. Alliance are essentially the only europhile force in NI and they're not exactly large.

In Wales and NI it's definitely plausible that Leave could win. Scotland, probably not.

@ Hellenic Riot: I don't think the polling is that clear. Here are the results of the most recent five polls:


1. YouGov poll on 3rd - 4th Feb, polling 1,675 people (including me!):

36% STAY // 45% LEAVE // 19% UNDECIDED


2. ICM poll on 5th - 7th Feb, polling 2,018 people:

41% STAY // 42% LEAVE // 17% UNDECIDED


3. ComRes poll on 11th - 14th Feb, polling 1,105 people:

49% STAY // 41% LEAVE // 10% UNDECIDED


4. ICM poll on 12th - 14th Feb, polling 2,001 people:

43% STAY // 39% LEAVE // 18% UNDECIDED


5. TNS poll on 11th - 15th Feb, polling 1,079 people:

36% STAY // 39% LEAVE // 25% UNDECIDED



What this suggests is that it might be close, and that a lot of people are currently undecided.

We've had polls for what, five years, and almost none have ever shown Leave to have 50%+.

Now I agree that can change, and I hope it does, and that Leave wins... but I'm not going to delude myself into believing it's favourite.

Neither is favourite, that's the point. It will come down to turnout, and how the undecided voters who participate are swayed.

@Jamie:

Thanks for that post, very clear and informative! I stand corrected and that's exactly why I enjoy discussion like these. Thank you!