hasta la vista ... baybee

"'Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people,' says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies."

I think that best sums up the story.

I guess I'll be part of the EU. Where did the rest of you American folks wind up?

alt news sites are riddled with these predictions.

I think anyone who has studied history can see it coming

I really have no interest in saying I told you so, because that would mean the worst has already happened.

I'll be part of the Peoples Republik of Chinafornia under president Ahhhnold

The worst in American history HAS already happened. His term is over in less than a month...

We heard the same garbage back in the late 70's and there were quite a few games based on it as well as a Mini Series called Amerika.
It is all just junk speculation with no attachment to any reality in this astral plane.

What baloney.... The USA as we know it isn't going anywhere new in the near future.

I really think he's got the lines all wrong. You'd probubly have several regional powers (Texas, New York / Pennsylvania / Ohio, Washington, California, Georgia / Florida) competing to see who can gain authority over the resource rich but sparsely populated center. Plus, every regoinal power would REALLY be squabling over access to coastline. The "Republic of Central America" would be all kinds of screwed with only Great Lake ports.

Bahahaha! Obama's going to have to royally fuck up for that to happen.

Obama wouldn't be the first President to do the right thing and thereby have a Civil War upon him... He is even going to pledge on the same Bible Lincoln used... that's a bad sign ;)

Am I the only one thinking that this would make a great varient map?

if its so silly jerkface, perhaps you can tell us why

Seems to me the burden of proof is on the other side. yes, we have an economic downturn and things look grim for an awful lot of people but the USA has been through worse and a true decline hasn't really begun yet. This isn't to say I think it will never happen--it will. Just not in the next 10 years.

There's too much national cohesion. America has a strong history and a strong sense of nationalism...

I'm sure the analyst knows more than me... but honestly... it sounds like terrible Russian propaganda to me. Look at the divisions! Divisions between China, Canada, EU, and Mexico? Hell no! If America were to split up they would still be American... any attempt by a foreign power to take over one part would likely lead right back to the formation of the US of A. While he might have some reasons to believe America will split, his theory loses credence with his crazy ideas of division.

well I just thought because you think its balogna, obviously false, that you already had some kind of proof or evidence or viewpoint about it.

shot in the dark I guess

People don't publish articles that they think are "shots in the dark" in the Wall Street Journal. I guess you don't defend this Russian's ideas, either, Sicarius?

The other big problem is even split into four parts (and ignoring Alaska and Hawaii because, sorry you guys, but you're not important) the remaining chunks of Former USA are still more powerful than Canada and Mexico. China might be able to exert some influence on the West Coast... if we assume the West Coast state gets none of the US navy at all. The EU might be able to do the same to the East Coast, with the same proviso.

Mexico would have to get up pretty early to think that the Republic of Texas would be it's puppet, and not the other way around. I could see a Republic of the Midwest being partners (not puppets) with Canada, assuming a capital in MN.

What I really want to know is does this Russian fellow think Cuba, Texas, or Venizuela will wind up with Puerto Rico?

I meant you were taking a shot in the dark.


I havnt read the article so I cant really say whether I support it or not, but I do think that the US will see major turmoil in the next few years that could very easily and probably will lead to a breakup of the country as we know it

I feel like it'd be more likely that the USA is taken over wholesale by an invader (China or Russia) than split along these or similar lines by civil war.

I dont think anyone will ever invade the US unless its already in so much choas that it is no longer the US anymore

How can I be taking a shot in the dark? I'm not the one putting it all out there making predictions! Are you saying that it is more likely that the country will fall apart in 2010 just as this person predicted, than that it won't? Even if the USA DOES fall apart in the next few years, the chances are incredibly low that it will fall in the precise terms that he has set out. Therefore, I'd say his prediction is far more of a shot in the dark.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shattered_Union

It was a decent game, but the thought of the country shattering is... unlikely ;)

The problem with the USA getting invaded is this: Where is this invasion going to come from. The Russians (sort of) still have a Navy, but lack the funds to utilize what's left of it effectively. The Chinese just don't HAVE a navy. If you put the entire naval strenght of the rest of the world together, and you put it up against the USA's navy, the USA's navy is still bigger.

That leaves two invasion points: Canada and Mexico. I doubt either one of them is going to be able to put on a sucessful invasion, much less an occupation.

No, if the USA is going to fall, it's not going to be to a barbarian horde. It's going to be to a civil war that no side is capable of utterly winning.

I'll admit from the start that I haven't given this much thought but my reasoning that an invasion is more likely actually hinges on the US being severely weakened by internal strife/civil war. So, I guess I've come around to your opinion, except that I don't think a civil war would, in itself, end the USA. After all, the survivors will still be the same people who speak English and have a more-or-less common heritage. So even if the population is decimated by a civil war, we would only cease to be the USA once an invading group arrives. This is getting very fanciful.

I like the way they point to the French Economist that predicted the fall of the Soviet Union 15 years before it happened as "proof" of the possibility that this kind of prediction has been laughed at before and turned out correct. My guess is that economists from all over the world were saying that USSR would 1) Control the entire planet or 2) cease to exist, with every possible month and year as their prediction. You probably had 20,000 papers by economists about the Soviet Union that were dead wrong for this one that happened to coincide with the actual event.

Similar to what Edi said - people have been saying this about the US for 30 years or more, so far they've all be wrong. This guy is only getting the attention, because he has been saying 2010 for the last 15 years, and now because of the economic situation we've gotten ourselves into, he all of sudden has credibility, that some other economist lost say ... last July, when his prediction turned out wrong. After 2010 passes, this guy will fade, but there are plenty more out there who have predicted 2011, 2012, and so on.

idk if I agree at all jerk. if the USA spilts into two or more seperate countries it will cease to be the US at all, as the politics will be very different.
and I see some of the places that would secede as extremists. large parts of utah for example would be taken over by the mormons and made in to a theocracy.
swatchs of appalachia and idaho area would probably be taken by white supremicists.
places like georgia, florida, socal, 4 corners, etc would likely be taken by various ethnic enclaves, racist or not.

large parts of the country would still be the 'US'
the UN would probably come too.

of course this is all very hypothetical

Sicarius, the article has cited very little real evidence for believing America has a 45-55% chance of disintegrating in June/July 2010... not even a reason for that time frame. What is listed is his resume, one previous correct prediction that might have seemed as ludicrous at the time, and the current economic crisis.

His credentials are not evidence on their own, predictions of this sort are made all the time, and we revel and triumph in the ones that turn out to be correct out of the hundreds that were proved wrong, and America has faced economic crises in the past and emerged united.

Just look at the details of his theory! I might have to come up with evidence as to my belief that say the USA will continue it's existence for at least another twenty years, but I should not be expected to come up with evidence against every doomsday prediction theory. Seriously, the territories of America would sooner reunite under say a Texan republic than submit to Chinese or European rule... and Canadian and Mexican rule of any territories is just unfeasible.

I havnt read the article and am neither attackign or defending it.

I say I agree that the US will break up. I dont know his reasons and they could be space aliens for all I know

This is quite possibly the most ludicrous article I've ever read.

For one thing, the idea of the United States ever falling apart like that is silly. When I saw that he said Tennessee might join the EU I actually laughed.

This is the ravings of a kooky KGB commie who is bitter about his country falling apart and wants the same to happen to America.

If I live in the new Canadian province of Illinois in a year and a half I'll go join Sicarius' band of homeless anarchists and fight the good fight for collectivism.

The internet gives these crazies an audience. The kind of revolution we need is a Luddite one.

The kind of revolution we need is a Luddite one.
WHAT?!?!

last I heard you were pretty pro-technology

If you can't even tell that a reference to such an arcane and nutty idea as Luddite-ism is a joke I don't know what to tell you.

All I meant, figuratively, is that we could do without all the steaming postmodern turds that the internet gives a wider audience to. God, you take things seriously.

I take things pretty lightly actually.

I'm just bad at making jokes

well - to be fair, Invictus - this is the front page of the paper version of the WSJ today too. This is not just some looney internet site.

I never meant the WSJ was crazy. Just the Ruskie.

He also assumes Americans would lie down and take Chinese-Mexican-Canuck-Eurotrash domination. If this did happen we'd be back to throwing tea in Boston Harbor. But it won't happen so it's immaterial.

I agree completely - I just wanted to make it clear that it wasn't the internet giving the crazy a voice - it was the Wall Street Journal.

I think it is more fantasy than anything in this guys mind, someone said it earlier, he was part of the system in the USSR, then it crumbled, and he would like to see America do the same thing.

just to throw this out htere, ALOT of people have been making this prediction, and as far back as 94

A lot of people have been predicting the end of the world since, well, forever.

I see your point

But who gets the nukes? Come on this guy is just having a Russian wet dream. I've read read such nonsense every few decade. One time Canada was split between the US and Quebec.

Ha ha ha!
A nice April Fools joke, nothing more.