Lecture 9, Cont.

Spring 1904

I seem to be a phase behind consistently, but I feel that I should continue with my remarks, since my opinion differs from ghug's.

Turkey: A+

I'll leave this short. Good job in tricking one neighbor, using another, and setting up your ally in an advantageous alliance for a successful stab. I'm not taking back my commentary from the past phase, but I would call the past year very successful for you nonetheless. I agree with ghug that you could've (and probably should've, imo) played a slow game of eating your way through the Eastern powers by yourself. Growing really fast and bursting your way to a solo (as ghug recommended) really only works for a select few powers who straddle the stalemate line - France, Russia, and perhaps arguably Germany and Italy. Everyone else should time their growth burst in a large stab later on in the game, and just work your way slow and steady to a foothold on the stalemate line. That's my opinion.

Italy: C-

I don't like I/T's. I *really* don't like them, as I believe they are inherently the least stable alliance on the board. I especially don't like them when E/G are allied. Your decision here to ally with Turkey when was only wise if you and Austria had completely irreconcilable differences, and you believed you had no other choice in ally. If this was your last resort alliance, then I begrudgingly approve. But if this was your last resort alliance, you've clearly been doing something wrong in your press this whole game.

Why is it unstable, you ask? I assume every power is trying to solo. Every other neighbor alliance has a natural expansion route. E/G can go down from the north or wrap around MAO fairly easily. E/R can carve up Russia. E/F move east together. F/G have natural expansion lines delineated by Switzerland. R/T move west. A/R is the exact same as an R/T. A/T isn't too much different either. I/R works just as well as I/A. But I/T....where does Turkey go? Seriously. Once your primary opponent is dead, where does Turkey go? Russia can usually form an easy choke point with War/Ukraine/Moscow that England/Germany would be wise not to mess with. And if Russia can't form that, yay Turkey gets Moscow/Warsaw and is appeased for another season...but then you're back at the same point. Once Russia and Austria are dead, Turkey comes through Italy. You can't break Berlin/Munich without an English ally, and even then, you're running into the wall of....your English ally. The only way Turkey can hope to ever solo in a I/T is to stab Italy. And the sooner the better, in most cases.

So, poor choice of alliance, but if its what you had to do, its what you had to do. Just know that Turkey can't disband those fleets. And E/G doesn't look to be breaking up any time soon.

Austria: D

You should have seen that coming. I like the idea of allying with Turkey. I will *not* knock you for that. That was a smart strategic choice of yours, and could have worked out for you. Honestly, it could've. The next turn you could've turned cloak and leveraged an angry Russia to have a shot at Serbia or Rum.

However, you should've seen the Italian stab coming. That Italy support held Ionian meant that Trieste could've been saved by a simple poke of Tyrolia or support hold on Trieste. The fleet disband means that Italy is hostile to you! If he intended on being friendly, then he would've disbanded an army. A better diplomatic effort in the builds phase might've trashed the alliance with Turkey, yeah (I wouldn't turn on Russia if I saw Italy disband an army) but....idk, the signs were there.

Russia: F

As has been said, the fleet movements should've been an indicator for you. And I swear to god, whenever this game ends I want you to PM me the reason for those bounces in Sweden. Its infuriating. I see no reason as to why it keeps happening. Support Germany in, for Christ's sake.

Lecture 10: Fall 1904

Finally, a timely lecture from Prof goldfinger!

THE WEST

England: A

A good result, a good result! Finally we have some progress in the West. And more luck in the East! With destroys, its possible that the pesky Russian won't be able to bother you in StP anymore. You should argue hard for that fleet to be disbanded.

Other than that, just keep up what you've been doing. Keep Germany onboard (because finishing off France will be rather difficult without him) and carry on with talking with everyone else. France from here on is a lesson in pure mechanics. Let's see if you've got what it takes.

France: B-

Tactics, tactics, tactics. Just because I said to do a move one season doesn't make it the best move to do the next. Being in NAO is next to useless for you right now. Especially when considering moving to the Channel would've been better in every possible circumstance.

Circumstance 1) England moves EC to MAO successfully. You bounce England in Channel. Things are bad, but not as bad as they are right now.

Circumstance 2) England moves EC to MAO successfully and moves to Wales (oddly). You're in EC. That benefit roughly balances out the weakness of losing MAO, as you're now assured either Belgium or Burgundy, or can cover both Iberia and Brest with ease (by retreating to Portugal)

Circumstance 3) England moves NAO to Channel with EC support. It fails

Circumstance 4) England moves to Brest. You can the channel and get your now-useless Irish Sea fleet into a very useful EC position (or bounce London out of the channel, which enables you to dislodge...or even disband...the English fleet in Brest.

Your strategic and diplomatic options in this game have been very, very limited. In these situations, good tactics is the difference between life and death. I've seen jmo hold off a R/A (or was it R/I) for 3-4 turns with just 3 Turkish units. Me in the same situation? 2 turns at most haha. But that extra year can mean the world in changing diplomatic circumstances. Maybe Russia stops bouncing Sweden and England has to disband lol. But you get the point. Think a bit harder on the correct tactics you need to use and what retreat you should do to survive the longest. All is not lost yet for you. Even against the combined forces of E/G, you can hold out for a very long time so long as you have 4 SC's or so. With the East wrapping up, time is on your side.

Germany: C-

Sigh. Another year passes, another no-build Germany. I seriously don't get it with Sweden, man. Why do you keep trying to backfill Den? That army could've been put to much better work in the East. It could literally save the game from being steamrolled by a I/T and change the entire dynamic. But its just...sitting there. You know, as I'm writing this, I decided to knock you down even further to a C- because just the sheer lack of movement is so wasteful. You had such potential, Germany. Then poor tactics and a shoddy alliance have ally but wasted it. And its not like you're even trying to do something different, despite what ghug and I have been saying. I mean, the fact that I have France a full letter grade above you despite France being in the slow process of dying should be telling you something.

Things I would've done differently this year:
Move to Baltic and push Kiel to Den.
Stab England
Move Mun East

I don't think you realize just how big of a potential threat the I/T is. The only way that alliance survives long term is by getting England to turn on you. And there are frankly fewer and fewer reasons for England not to, now that he has MAO. Expect that to be their primary press goal from here until one of the two board alliances fails.

The one good thing you did this year is allow Austria to survive, so kudos are given for that.

England will be growing. Your eastern front will be under serious threat. You have no future growth prospects. How will you respond?

THE EAST

Turkey: A+

Not much to be said here. Solid stuff. You're in a good position. Not exactly to solo, but in a good safe position nonetheless. Make sure you're still keeping in touch with everyone across the board. It is too easy to become complacent here.

Italy: A-

Well, good job getting those builds! Now....Turkey still has fleets to pose a threat to you, is guaranteed another build next year while you are not, and has armies in place to threaten your new holdings and wrap around them to the north while you can do no such thing.

Enjoy!



But in seriousness, its possible to prevent a Turkish stab. You just need to be very, very talkative with Turkey, keep his fleets crawling further and further away from you (this is a demand I would *absolutely* insist on) and in general give him a narrow outlet of slow, steady expansion. You also need to make sure that once you guys reach StP, Berlin and Munich that you won't be stuck there. That will be tricky, and there's only a few options available to you to do it. Talk it over with your TA.

As for any western expansion....I'm not sure if 1) You can/should spare enough units to make it successful and 2) If it was successful, if you'd manage to hold any of it longer than a year

Austria: C

You should've been at two SC's. Poor tactics on your part has been costing you this game, but its all part of the learning process. Vienna support Budapest to Trieste would have given you a guaranteed second center. Another prof can check me on this, but I believe there is no possible set of moves I/T could have done to take all your home SC's from you this fall had you done that.

But, I shall praise you where its due. Good job on getting Warsaw. To truly secure yourself a position on the line, you'll need to do some tricky maneuvering and work closely with every non-I/T power over there who can possibly help. I would retreat your army to Galicia and then strongly think on the moves needed to form some sort of line while leaving you a place *on* a supply center.

Russia: F

Again with the Sweden bouncing. Russia, if you didn't bounce Sweden all the time, and just supported an attack on StP, you could 1) Get on the correct side of the stalemate line and perhaps stay there! ***Hence potentially surviving to the draw*** 2) Get a build maybe (in years past) and 3) Have England lose 1 or even 2 SC's and **win Germany as an ally**

Now, I won't go as far to say that your Sweden plays cost you the game, but damn if it hasn't been a close thing. You have somehow managed to make your most valuable piece in the north utterly useless for the entire game. You moved to Baltic, but then tap the wrong territory, allowing your chief enemy in the north to grow and keeping your secondary enemy next to your home SC. Then you again, inexplicably for three seasons in a row, help England keep Sweden and StP when by all rights he should've lost both.

But the main reason that I've given you an F is that I think you've given up. Austria is inarguably in worse shape than you, but at least he is still trying and you can tell he's trying. Black Sea hold??? Really?? When Sev is being threatened. At the very least, you could've tapped Rumania to try and slow Turkey down. Maybe regain the East. The fact that Germany supported Austria into your territory shows that Germany has more confidence in Austria being able to help him out in that region than in you. That's a problem.

I would strongly consider F Black Sea and A Ukraine as disbands. You need Austria and Germany now to survive. F GoB can be a leverage tool. Working together, the three of you can stop I/T dead in its tracks. But you need to work together, and frankly you need England removed from StP. I would only assume that E and T are working closely together from here on out.

A REMINDER TO EVERYONE

Builds/disbands are important. Look at what they say before you start conducting your spring press.

Bump for builds.

Not much to talk about here. I like France's retreat to Portugal - that was the smart thing to do. I like Russia's disbands - though that shows England's press failures there (and a coup for Germany...though, I'm not too sure what the history of Sweden is now). Italy's builds are sensible and, by themselves, mean nothing. But if you look at Turkey and his armies, you could reasonably guess that Turkey expects Italy to move West.

But nothing is guaranteed! Keep trying to break the I/T apart, everyone. I/T, keep in touch with each other because you know the board is targeting you. Certain powers may also be more willing to ally with you than others.

Bump me off the face of the Earth

Commentary in the morning at the latest.

Alright, it's time to desegregate the spheres, I think. We'll redivide the powers into big and small, cause you're really being graded on different scales at this point. Everyone has a very direct impact on what's going on with everyone else, and this lecture's going to focus on looking beyond your immediate neighbors.

BIG POWERS:
Y'all need to be thinking about soloing, or at least getting a favorable draw. You should be spending a lot of time talking to each other, but don't ignore the smaller powers either. A few units in a good spot can make a world of difference.

England - A+
BREST! PORTUGAL?!?! There are two possible ways this happened. Either you guessed very right, or France is giving you his centers. If it's the former, he's chosen to focus on Germany in any case, so you get a leg up. If it's the latter, wonderful, though you're going to have to answer some questions from your wronged ally, and you really should have considered putting yourself or at least him in Spain SC as a jumping off point in the Med. You have to be thinking about your solo right now, and it seems much more likely you'll get centers in the Med than centers in Russia. You'll need three of Tun/Mun/Ber/Nap/Rom/Ven/War/Mos. Some of those are much more attainable than others, so think about which ones you'll have the best shot at, which you're most likely to get, which are most important to get before the board mobilizes against you, and so on. The AR moves aren't great, but Germany was the one more likely to gain there, so you just need to keep him on side and you're OK there. The IT conflict is obviously great for you.

Turkey: A-
It's always better to have your ally not stabbing you, so in that sense you failed here. Even if you didn't want to work with him, you're better off convincing him you do so that you can stab him better. Other than that though, you countered his moves perfectly, and you're doing a very good job shaping the rest of the board to you. AR are working against EG rather than you, France has finally created an imbalance in their alliance, which opens up all sorts of interesting possibilities for you. You need to be thinking about your solo too. You're almost certainly not going to get Tunis unless your Italian friend decides to throw to you, so your solo lies somewhere in Germany or Scandinavia, which are both a bit more longshotty. You could also consider proposing a two-way to England, as you could actually find a way to stalemate each other, and you'll both get plenty of chances to turn it into a solo in the mean time.

Germany - B-
France is broken. Cool. Austria and Russia seem more concerned about you than the Turk. Less cool. You've gotta find a way to ensure that England doesn't stab you, and you've gotta find a way to start growing again. Your solo chances are much smaller than those above you, but you've got a shot if you can keep your alliance stable and find a way to grow into Austria and/or Russia. Think about what you have to offer England, Turkey, and Italy.

Italy - D
Ouchie. Not a great stab. Maybe you're faking it! That'd be cool! If not, you're in trouble. I highly doubt you'll solo this game unless it goes another 20-30 years, and your draw prospects are highly in doubt right now. If England enters the Med, you're going to fall pretty quickly. If he doesn't, you could still fall to the Turk on his own, but it'll at least be slow. Again, what everyone else is doing really impacts you here. Talk to Germany about what you can do to better your worse positions together. Talk to England about where else he can grow. Talk to Turkey about how fighting you won't give him enough of what he needs. You're in danger of slipping into the small powers group, but you're still big enough that you can right the ship before all is lost.

LITTLE GUYS:
You should be looking to survive this. Regrowing is great, but it's not particularly likely. Think about who benefits more from having you alive than dead, and convince them not to kill you. We're not quite at the stage where someone is going for the solo yet, so you can't put yourself in this position yet, but the best way to get a draw is a small power is to put yourself on the stalemate line where somebody's going to end up and push them as close to the solo as you possibly can, so that you're completely necessary in stopping them. It's risky, but it's the only way to get a draw without banking on the kindness of someone else. I'll be grading you on your single turn moves, not your overall positions, but I don't really like what any of you are doing, so they're still gonna look bad.

France - C
Well, you've put a little imbalance in E/G, which is good, but it comes at the cost of two centers, and you're not positioning England to bypass you with his fleets, or even take some of yours with him into the med. You probably have the most potential to actually be useful to someone here, but you're not capitalizing.

Austria - D
Why bounce Germany? He just put you in Warsaw. He's the only person who's shown any desire to work with you. Now he can kill you for Warsaw, which probably looks pretty appealing given England's growth. Hope that Russia wants to protect you, I guess.

Russia - F
Those moves were never gonna do anything, and leaving yourself exposed to Turkey hasn't really come with any reprieve from Turkey. He should want you holding off E/G. Is that not enough to convince him not to take Sev yet?

ok - it has to be said - even though i'm not supposed to chat on here - i won't chat about the game itself ... Austria / before saying things unfair etc..remember you have an experienced TA - who is supposed to be helping you - so you do NOT have any disadvantage vs stronger players (unless you have been ignoring your TA of course). Also in approximately 100% of diplomacy games - give or take - at least 1 country bites it eventually (good players and bad players) .. just a game ... party on

Lecture...11?

I don't have too much time to sum things up at the moment, but I shall combine grades as ghug did above.

England: A

A good year, overall. France is down to three, Germany stayed with you, Russia will now never be able to threaten you again, and you have lots of builds coming your way. I see this as good success on multiple fronts, and evidence of a lot of hard work put in diplomatically with the right people. I'm sure you did your share of encouraging Turkey to move on Italy too.

Your primary goal here is to think about the solo. How to best pacify Germany until you're ready to make your move. Do you even need to stab Germany to solo? What are your planned SC's. All these are things to think about. Especially, what to do with Moscow. Its fate could go many ways, and that's one of the most interesting things I'm looking forward to next year.

Just a side note though. I don't like your spring moves EC-Brest, Wales-EC. Most France's would've moved to defend Brest. You were lucky to have that one succeed - or just very good diplomatically.

Turkey: A

Sensible moves, and you defended yourself exceptionally well. Tactics were nothing shy of perfect, and almost invulnerable defense too. The only real risk you had was Budapest.

Moving forward, be aware that although your forces are more compact and poised for an explosive move, England has a better shot of soloing than you. It is likely that he will reach Tunis before you. So try and think of ways to get to 18. Will France live long enough to help you out? Will Italy become your pawn? Will you be able to either turn Germany or break through him? Your builds will show what you have decided.

Germany: B-

Well, you got a build. Yay. But you're not exactly guaranteed a piece of France next year. And in the East, you've run into what I am calling "The Italy Problem." You took a center, but now have no real means of holding it. Unless a line forms quickly, the East will all be yellow shortly. Austria could've been a part of that line. Eliminating him either shows that you 1) Want the game to end soon (in which case you've given up on the solo 2) Don't view Turkey as a threat to your holdings (in which case you're very, very wrong) or 3) Think that you can form the line yourself (to which I am assigning odds of less than 50%)

Moreover, why Prussia with the support and not Silesia? Did you think Turkey could tap Sil? What benefit is there from not being able to pressure Gal with two? Besides English help to force the issue of Moscow, I suppose. But in my opinion, that would be a mistake.

I mean, you are where you are and you have a build, I guess. But there's been too much inaction for too long, and you're a junior power with no way that I can see of upending your seniors. That shot really expired this year with your moves. If I were playing Germany, I would've turned on England long ago. I hope England has promised you enough shiny things to make up for the 3-4 SC's and board leader position you could've gained by turning on him.

Italy: B-

Well, you took heed of my words, which is a good thing. Albeit just a bit too late. As I said, the alliance was unstable because Turkey only had one way to go. I have mixed feelings on your spring decision to bounce Greece. Eastern Med was a guarantee. If you're going to attack Turkey, why not move there to put some pressure on Aegean and Smyrna? Ionian wouldn't have exactly been vulnerable due to Adriatic support, and you might've been able to get Armenia to move back to Smyrna and given yourself a real shot at capturing Greece in the fall.

As for the fall moves, this is a bit trickier, and takes a lot of time and practice to guess at where the moves are coming from. From an offensive standpoint, you couldn't know where Rum was going to support hold. But two moves should've come as fairly obvious. 1) Aegean support Bulgaria to Greece. Again, I think a move to Eastern Med here would've been strong. 2) The attack on Vienna

Why the attack on Vienna? You couldn't have known between there and Trieste, you might say. Indeed, you thought it was coming on Trieste, with Rum defending Budapest, Gal tapping Vienna and Serbia moving to Trieste. You had the perfect counter set up for that. However, Galicia was always going to be a free move for Turkey, and Vienna was considerably more vulnerable than Trieste was. Looking at attacking you from a Turkish perspective, it would make sense to assume both Budapest and Serbia would be hit by *Something* Therefore an attack on Trieste was going to fail almost 100% of the time. Meanwhile a move to Greece would succeed 100% of the time, setting up to chip away at Albania the next turn. I bet Turkey didn't even think he was going to gain Vienna this year. But he moved so that, at worst, he trades Vienna for Budapest, which is a good trade, imo. Its hard, doing that kind of analysis. Its a great skill you can hone in 1v1 games. You've played this game well, don't get me wrong. Tactically, you're doing more correct than incorrect. But to elevate you to that next level - which I think you can do - you need to practice attacking yourself in order to better learn how to defend yourself. It may have seemed a wild crapshoot of a guess, but looking closely at the board and considering Turkey's cautious, meticulous way of advancing (and a gooood dose of hindsight :p ) you could put the odds at greater than 50% that he would move similarly to how he did.

I'll have more to say after disbands. You need to consider what fallback lines are available to you, and most importantly how to survive to the draw.

France: C+

While I like the revenge move with Norwegian Sea, Russia's ineptitude all game wouldn't have made me that keen on its probability of success. A better thing to do would've been move to MAO.

Spring though was just plain bad luck with Portugal. A stronger move might have been to support NAO to MAO, allow him to retreat to Spain, and then dislodge him in the fall (which would've been fairly guaranteed. As for Brest, I would've moved there with Picardy 10 times out of 10. You can lose Pic or Bur and still hold onto your other centers. And its not like you were ever going to lose both in the spring, so I would've felt very safe moving back to cover Brest in the spring (accompanied by NAO-MAO, this would've bounced even a supported attack on Brest)

But the effect of your moves is that you did delay English armies from moving onto the mainland, which is good. Your biggest problem right now is those German armies, not the English fleets. Its a bit of luck, but it may be possible to stay at 3 this coming year. Disbands will have to be thought out very, very carefully. Plan your tactics out with your TA. As I said to Italy, imagine you are E/G and attacking you. What is the best way to do so? What units do you need to counter that?

To help you out a little, their goal will probably be to either take Paris/Spain or force disband one of your units (which at this point has the same effect of taking a SC. Try to prevent that from happening at all costs. It is still very possible you survive to the draw, but you need England to get solo eyes or Turkey to run through the rest of Europe.

Austria: C

Correct fall move. Debateable on the Spring move. I'm not sure why you've bounce Germany out of Liv. Or maybe the plan was for you to move to Liv? Because frankly that's what I was hoping it was. Putting you in StP would've been a coup.

The plan I had in mind for you to do with Germany and Russia was going to be to form the Moscow-Ukraine-Warsaw partial stalemate line. Germany slipping into Silesia would've all but finished it. This would've been extremely effective and absolutely necessary had the I/T stayed together.

**Ahem, Germany pay attention**

Because had the I/T stayed together, Germany would be overrun right now. That bears a bit of repeating for my German friend, so I'll say it again. Had I/T stayed together, Germany would likely be knocked out. This is of course, assuming perfect cooperation between them and no stab by either of them, with Turkey moving troops away from the line (Serbia-Rum, Rum-Ukr, Bud-Gal, Smyrna-Armenia coupled with Vienna-Bohemia, Trieste support Venice-Tyrolia). This is the fear I would've tried to instill in Germany's mind (even though it was an unlikely scenario) because had this actually happened, Turkey would very likely be in control of Moscow or Warsaw this year, and France would 100% be in Burgundy offering to topple Munich. It would've triggered an immediate E/G/A/R alliance to counter F/I/T, but it would've crumbled fairly quickly because there wasn't a line. Especially not after spring moves.

And now, of course, its too late to form the Moscow/Ukraine/Warsaw line. Which is why I'm so disappointed in Germany. He gained Warsaw but is destined to lose it within a year or two. No foresight (unless he uses the build to springboard a stab).

Anyways, Austria, you made a few mistakes earlier that we've gone over, but I think you closed the game strong. You forced Russia into a hard spot in the fall, where Russia ultimately made the wrong decision. Hence why I am grading you, a dead power, higher than him.

Russia: F

You have no friends. Or maybe you did at one point, but you made them incredibly mad in the spring moves. But unless you do some spectacular talking with Turkey, its pretty inevitable that you die to E/G next year.

Things I don't understand. Why did you not either support hold Austria or just swap Moscow for StP? You knew France was tapping Norway. You must have known Austria was fleeing to Moscow. And any reasonable person would've thought Sev was going to be taken by support (so I don't blame you for not going there). But, use the opportunity to take Sev and allow Austria into Moscow! That way you have a unit on the right side of the stalemate line, and Austria is still alive as a friend.

Moreover, you missed yet another chance to do something with Sweden, and at this point your relationship with that SC just bothers me.

You have two choices - try and keep Moscow by pledging yourself to one side or another or play pirate with a rogue fleet and hope to land in a SC at the end of the year (not all that likely)

Bumping this up. I'll have commentary later tonight.

For now, I just want to say this, since I honestly hadn't checked in for the builds phase. I liked everyone's decisions for builds/disbands except for France. And France's choice of disband will likely be the reason he doesn't survive this game. Spain was always going to be lost, so keeping the fleet does nothing. You should have kept all your armies! That way you can potentially dislodge Burgundy, which alone buys you a year, forces Germany to commit armies west, which allows Turkey to rush west faster, and most importantly gives you options as far as tactics and strategy goes!

So France, while you may have been unsuccessful in this game diplomacy-wise, that may sometimes just boil down to luck of the draw. But, had you had better tactics - first with the fleets and now with the disband - I think you would've lived long enough to see Italy fall to Turkey and thus be saved.

I only glance at this game infrequently & defer to Goldfinger's superior expertise at the Diplomacy caper. That said, I think Turkey has made a mistake in attacking Italy.. It puts England in the box seat to solo. England has a reasonably reliable ally in Germany. Who does Turkey have ? Russia ? France ?
I just can't see how Turkey can prevent England from getting fleets into the Mediterranean without Italy's help, and there's no way Italy will now trust Turkey.
England can always get St Petersburg, getting Tunis is much more difficult ( usually ). England even has choices as to how he solos, eg get Tunis then turn on Germany.. Or stay in alliance with Germany and go after more sc's from Italy, then Turkey.

The only risk i see for England is in Germany switching to an alliance with Turkey, but I don't think he would take such a bold and risky shift in strategy based on his game so far, plus that's a move where Germany risks all, and Turkey risks almost nothing.

The risk for Germany is, he switches to an alliance with Turkey, loses his ally in England, then Turkey uses Germany briefly, but then turns on him, and Germany ends up getting crushed between England and Turkey. ( Possibly Turkey's only realistic way to solo )

@MM - the stab of Italy couldn't really be helped. Italy was moving on him anyways, so whether that was due to poor diplomatic efforts (or my scathing commentary) Turkey moved correctly given the corner that he was in.

Now, England is in a better shot than Turkey to solo. Best Turkish solo paths come via Munich at the moment, but unfortunately, it doesn't appear that France will stay alive long enough to help that. Between Russia's poor moves in the north and France's poor tactics in the West, Turkey lost the ability to solo.

The only shot would be one of two ways.

1) Get Italy on your side. Players would rather draw than die, no? There's almost nothing England can do to prevent an Italian death here. Italy loses Trieste and Ionian this year. Maybe England can help hold Tunis, but England would be much better off if *he* took Tunis (which I will come back to later). Have Italy crash the line in Spain. Perhaps he can nab Marseilles off of France, or create enough confusion there to bungle English orders. But Italy will be looking for some way to survive, and that's a possible outlet to give him.

2) Deliberately promote the English solo threat. Allow England to flood into the Med. Don't press Italy too much, but focus up on Germany. Once England gets into Tunis, start throwing a lot of press at Germany to convince him England is going to stab. If Germany is jittery, it could create an opening.

Bump for commentary later last night :)

Sorry, Yankees game went late :)

Its all good, real life comes first, (except for those of us that are in 40 games at once...) when should we expect to see some commentary?

Do these Yankees play Diplomacy ?

Sorry, I got home yesterday to a broken fridge and my spare time got used up trying to save my food and schedule a repair. I think I can write some now. Slow day at work

Spring 1906

Bid disclaimer: I will be giving solo advice here, but am not historically actually that successful at soloing. So do take it with a grain of salt.

England - A

Good moves and execution this year. The key to success in the end game is successful moves, and so far that's what you've got. I have you in first because you are best positioned to solo amongst the remaining powers. The question is - how to go about it?

Option 1) Secure Italy and allow Turkey to draw German units East. Your SC's would be Tunis, Naples, Rome (with a big question mark around, say, Moscow or Venice). This way, you don't have to ensure you take Berlin and Munich. The upside to this is that you don't have to stab Germany straight away, and can work more units in the Med. But the downside is that you need to negotiate Marseilles from Germany for this to work, as it gives you a better option to attack Germany, limits his builds, and *most* importantly gives you more leverage in Italy. Because the hardest part of this plan isn't going to be taking those Italian centers, but holding them. It will require significant investment, and more than just fleets. But, if done successfully you severely limited Germany's ability to throw the game. Getting Turkey into Berlin or Munich is easy. Kiel or StP, significantly less so

Option 2) Stab Germany straight away. And I mean this turn. There's still disarray in the East. Italy is acting as your shield against Turkey, but there's a time limit on that. He's gonna get worked down pretty methodically, so you need to get help over to him fairly fast. And you'll also need to secure Berlin and Munich before he does. You're not too well positioned for this at the moment, but I do very much like the move to Sweden as potential preparation.

Turkey - A-

You're also very strong, but your solo options are very small at this point. I like getting Russia onto your side. That could help out tremendously in the East. You're gonna have to be inventive now, doing something like forcing consecutive German disbands, or a single disband with no place to rebuild. Fact of the matter is that unless you get Italian help, I don't see you breaking through Germany (though, had you guys known about England's move to Sweden, StP was a remote possibility. Still, your moves are good. Italy can't force a disband in Albania without giving up Ionian in the fall. So you're set to slowly chink away at his SC's. You can use that to your advantages in negotiations. If you can sell to Italy that he's dead no matter what (and have kept up a good working relationship with him all game) then perhaps you can get him to crash the line in the West. France will be alive another year only, so the window is short. England will likely not have a fleet in the Med this fall, but expect it next spring. Tyrolia would be extremely helpful to break Munich while German forces are bunched around Warsaw.

The other option is to induce E/G to fight. I won't embellish on that too much since I've described it in two different posts now.

Germany - B

I like that you took Paris, but I don't like the *way* in which you took Paris. You got lucky from suboptimal French disbands, and even luckier from spring moves that he didn't just do Gas-Par, Mar-Bur. Do the guaranteed move and take it from Burgundy, while using Munich to backfill.

Second, I don't know the reason why you're commiting East. What's there for you to gain now? Turkey will eventually overwhelm you there, and if you manage to set up the stalemate that includes Warsaw/Moscow that just encourages England to stab for the solo. It doesn't quite get you anywhere, and just makes you more vulnerable (also, if you're doing it, Pru-Liv was almost strictly the better move). So, barring surprise move to the north sea and taking of Brest to launch a solo run, I don't see why you're extending yourself needlessly.

Now, you may call me a hypocrite from my earlier comments, but this is not true. I wanted you to move East en force years ago because you could've kept Italy alive and contained Turkey while growing yourself. Italy at this point is dying no matter how much aid and assistance you give. Turkey will break him with fleets and France won't wrap up quickly enough. Since saving Italy is no longer possible (and again, unless you're entertaining a solo push) then the goal here is to prevent either E or T from soloing

Italy: C

So, I said I liked the disbands because I thought you were trying to get creative. But you didn't, and are now guaranteed to go down another center, and lose Ionian next spring or this fall. What I thought you'd do is Trieste-Vienna, with maybe Germany coming down from Munich to help hold it. Coupled with a move to Albania with Adriatic (or from Ionian with Adr supporting Tyr to Ionian) this would've been really strong, and perhaps get you back on track. Or at least give you a fighting chance.

But now it's a slow, inevitable death spiral. Everyone on both sides of the board has a reason to want your centers or units. Use that to your advantage and try to engineer a situation where you're the difference between a draw and a solo. This means either propelling the Turkish threat across the stalemate line (by, say, supporting Marseilles and therefore preventing Munich from being completely secure) or by propelling the English threat. It's gonna be rough, but there's room for you.

Russia: C

Good job getting a friend. See if you can get them to reward your usefulness with a build! If you get to two, you have a lot more negotiating power to potentially work a draw with a stalemate line that includes you. Just watch out for that English army in StP, and try and see what England wants the East to shape up like. StP could become your ticket to a draw, or the decider in your death.

France: F

I don't get the moves. I don't get the disband. What was Marseilles supposed to be doing with that support? Was that fleet better off going to Spain to be destroyed in a season (as it is guaranteed to be) instead of fleeing to Tunis? You're going to be down to one army next year. Marseilles is currently shaping up to not be on the stalemate, so you're going to have to get creative. E and G might be fighting over who gets Mar. Try and exploit that! Get England to go on a solo push, or at least convince him that Germany in Marseilles is no bueno. And do the opposite with Germany! Or, you could consider going east and trying to get Turkey to support you into Venice (though you're infinitely more valuable to the Turk in Marseilles). Time to get talking.

*Big disclaimer

Bump for commentary on the last 2 phases.

Exciting times....the commentary, less so

''The last commentary was abouta week ago'' -Bobby Shmurda 2014

It's whatevs clearly we are the forgitten children

Guys let's just let this thread die so the profs can be ashamed of it.

Okay, I might not be very high in ghost rating in my general diplomacy, but I am in the top 10 of 1 vs 1. Hence, I am a excellent tactician. I see a stalemate line that will prevent Turkey from soloing, with an inability to get that 18th center.
It is
a. St. Petersburg (with support from Norway)
b.Berlin-Munich line(A Berlin, A Munich, F Baltic support hold Berlin; 2 units in Kiel, Ruhr, or Bur support hold Munich).
c. The south of France with Tunis line (F Tunis, F North Africa support hold F Tunis; F Gulf of Lyon, F West Med and F Mar support hold F Gulf of Lyon).
My prediction is a 4 way draw between Turkey, England, Germany, and Italy based solely on my tactical sense.
While I can see E/G maybe breaking the line near Austria if good guess are made, but German units will be really overstretch, and breaking the Ionian Sea would be hard since I don't imagine Italy will be helping too much. However, I can envision Italy being eliminated from the draw, the problem is then Turkey does not quite have a stalemate line on E/G. I see perfect moves from G/E/I in achieving that position, in fact, I think that is what they are doing.

Now, that is assuming I read the diplomatic situation correctly, which is not that good. There might be a stab by someone in the E/G/I alliance, or Turkey makes some concession with someone in E/G/I. However, if Turkey wants to solo on the current situation, it is not really possible. In fact, it would be an argument for getting some DMZ/insurance in the rear in the E/G/I pact for those happy with the current draw.

With France gone, Turkey has no hope of crossing the main stalemate line. E/G have that solidly. The only question would be rather if Turkey takes out their friend Italy.

@Zybodia, that is assuming no defection from E/G/I, there are options for Turkey to offer a very solid 2 way to England for instance. It would required some extensive tactical coordination between the two, but is viable if difficult to achieve. Perhaps by Turkey ceding some Italian centers and moving on Germany together. In that case, expecting a long and loud death by Germany.