Turkey will make sure someone takes over this position now haha.

Hey!!!

I do have someone interested, they asked for 24 hours to make the choice though. Thank you for your patience.

Vashta has graciously offered to step in for DL as he is frolicking overseas.

I'll let the players put in unpauses as they become aware of the situation, and will force unpause it in 48 hours, but I hope that's not needed.

The game is afoot!

No, the game is Diplomacy.

The game has restarted.

Bump for spring moves.

Bump for Fall moves.

At behest of the teaching staff I am officially opening up this Study Group SOW to allow questions to be posted in this thread by the players themselves.

This is to encourage more discussion and learning.

I will be watching it closely and this is not precedent setting for the SOW series.

Be extra respectful to ATC and Gold and their requests regarding this practice please.

Valis2501
SOW Chancellor

Observer questions for the profs:

1. English F Bal-Den : interesting. Does this likely signal some kind of agreement between England and Russia, and final doom for Germany next year?

2. Russian A Bud-Tri, Turkish A Ser-Tri : Also interesting. Presumably this isn't actually a Russian stab (surely Bud-Rum, Boh-Vie for an actual stab (not that I think even that is particularly sensible given the board)), but is there something I'm missing about the position that makes it sensible to bounce there?

3. Any bets on whether this is going to shake down into an RTE 3-way, or are there still options for countries to viably go for a solo attempt?

1912 Builds (Lightning commentary edition):

England: F Lvp.... I don't like it. I don't think you need that extra fleet, especially as you already have a spare fleet in Brest. I would have preferred A Lon, ready for convoy. You're nearly back in the game, though. Depends on whether you can take the units that are out of position, and put them IN position.

France: Best choice you've made in a few years. That disband was necessary for there to even be a possibility of peace with England. Unfortunately, it might be a bit late. We'll see.

Turkey: Two armies! I like it, although F Smy would have been tempting to ensure that you always have the potential for a long convoy. I wonder if you knew Italy was keeping Tunis? You need to be thinking about which centre is your 18th. Where are those armies going?

Russia: Not a huge amount to say about your build. I want to know what your next centre is, though. Looks like Germany isn't breaking from England - surely you can offer him a deal that works for both of you. I hope that you didn't surprise him when you took Berlin - he could have been a valuable ally.

Italy: At first I was confused, but I think you're putting your hope in being Turkeys forward units in exchange for life? I don't think you could have made a disband that worked to prevent Turkey taking your centres, so whatever your plan is, it's probably the best you've got.

-----

Thorfi: I think the earlier comments about the potential soloists still stand. I thought Russia was going to build in Sev in 1910, which would have dramatically increased his own solo chances, but the old Russian commander elected not to do this for whatever reason (trust in the Turk? Not wanting to rock the boat?)

I'll answer your other questions later if I get time - or another commentator can.

Questions from the players are welcome - it's hard for commentators to know how useful commentary is, so I'm very happy to have direct questions. We can always not answer them (or delay the answer) if we think the questions are being asked as an additional diplomatic channel (which is not the point of this series).

@ATC: Why do you spell it centre and not center? and How does one "Russia"?
I am knew to it (aside from a few bad gunboats).

"Center is the preferred spelling in American English, and centre is preferred in varieties of English from outside the U.S"

http://grammarist.com/spelling/center-centre/

:)

I'm not sure if your other question is serious, but I'm going to pretend it is, and give you an answer. I'd like to start by saying that opinion is divided on the matter, and I'm certainly no Russian expert.

I would say that success as Russia is about being familiar with the relevant stalemate lines - Russia starts across the "major" stalemate line, but there are still vertical stalemates that can lock a Russia down. Russia is very vulnerable in the early years (this position is past that), and if you can use your allies to avoid that vulnerability, and then avoid being locked up in the later years, you'll be fine as Russia. I don't think you need that lesson, though? (why are you even in this game?)

Anyway, something I didn't like about your position this year was that none of your units moved - I think Diplomacy is on some levels about efficiency, so (unless there's a diplomatic reason) you want to be spending your moves either progressing your position, or preventing others progressing theirs. The only position you prevented progressing was Turkey's - who has been your primary ally in this game. That doesn't seem like a good use of your units to me.

bump for spring moves

Bump for the autumn.

Woah. Seriously, Russia? At first glance, this seems like a terribly timed stab of Turkey.

1) You can't hold St P at all, and you probably lose Berlin now that you're not on the line.
2) it's not certain that you'll be able to hold the centre of the line against England, either - with some strong moves and some luck, England could be in Moscow or Warsaw soon. That's a solo.
3) You need Turkey to stop England getting Tunis. If you start taking centres from Turkey, I can bet which units he'll be pulling off first - but it doesn't even matter - if he has to pull back even a little bit to defend his home centres, England takes all of Iberia. I doubt England is going to just sit at 17 while you remove Turkey.

Because of England's dominant position, you 100% cannot kill Turkey. If you're expecting a draw, then the best you can hope for is a 3-way ETR. Let's look at your other options:

There's no way that you're getting a two way - England is nearly at his 17, and you need a four-fleet minimum to lock him out of Tunis. Without Turkey you have none, so you can't aim for the two way.

There's also no way you're getting a solo - without St P or Berlin (even assuming that you're able to hold Moscow and Warsaw - which is a big assumption), you then need all of Turkey, all of Italy, and one more. Since you have no southern fleets, this isn't happening either.

Maybe you're wanting to clear Turkey's chance of any solo - but you could have done that by taking Trieste and Rumania without pulling your central units off the line. If you had done that, you'd be at +2 centres, with no worse position against England. Since you pulled those units down, you've lost Berlin, which puts you at +1 instead. Unless I'm missing something, this is worse for you.

Diplomatically, it's bad too. Because you're moving off the vertical line, I'm assuming that Turkey wasn't expecting you to take those centres. If that's the case, you've burnt trust with him for no gain - you still need him to stop England. Given that you're only at 7 units (I'm not counting St P or Berlin), I think you even need some Turkish armies to stalemate Moscow and Warsaw.

I really really hope that Turkey was expecting this, and that you have some amazing plan that I am missing.

Whatever you're doing, I hope you're aware of the stalemate lines against England and how many units you need to hold them.

------- England:

I'm not sure I like your support of Tunis. You actually want Turkey to take Tunis, since it converts a forward unit in Tunis for a rear unit in the Turkish home centres. Maybe it was a part of a deal with Italy, but I probably would have pointed out to him that Turkey clearly wasn't taking Tunis - for the same reasons that you *want* Turkey in Tunis, Turkey wants Italy as a friend.

I think it would have been better to use WMed to take a crack at Spain (probably supporting Gas in). It would have succeeded, and you'd have no disband, and a reasonable chance of retaking Portugal.

I really really like your support of Italy. Keeping him able to play the two sides of the line is the best way to keep him as an ally.

I suppose the comments to Russia above are for you, too. Make sure you know the stalemate positions that Russia and Turkey will need to stop you, and think about how you can prevent them from achieving it.

------- Germany:

Holding probably made sense this turn. Can you use this new chaos to better your position? I actually can't answer that without seeing your press. I remain hopeful for you!

------- Turkey:

I really like your moves assuming that you expected Russia to work with you. As described above, I think passing up Tunis for a further forward position was the right thing to do.

I personally would probably have let Italy keep Rome, but I haven't seen your press, and taking it for yourself turned out to be a very good thing this turn anyway, given Russia's stab.

I'd be making sure you know the stalemate positions you'll need against England, and making doubly sure that Russia knows them too.

-------Italy:

Finding a friend in England means that you'll live a bit longer, but unfortunately I think you're still going to be eliminated.

Predictions for this game:

1) ETR draw
2) English solo

Predictions had Russia not stabbed Turkey:

1) ETR draw
2) Turkish solo

Predictions had Russia stabbed Turkey, but stayed on the line:

1) ETR draw

Other commentators welcome, as are questions from the players.

I think the stab by Russia is really really bad, so maybe I'm missing something.

To clarify, I like the English support of Italy into Marseilles, but I don't like the English support of the Italian Tunis.

I think putting Italy in Marseilles even decreases the Italian's survival chances, since Tunis' survival becomes less critical while England doesn't have Marseilles - and Turkey has all four fleets he needs to stalemate off Tunis nearly in position already.

Oh, I forgot France -

I like Spa->Por. I think it would have been better if it were a bounce, but it's a reasonable move. Like Italy, I don't expect you to live long, unfortunately.

Of course, with the right Diplomacy, the smaller powers can sneak in to the draw, too - as long as none of the relevant players are raging against them.

To G, I and F -How can you motivate the larger powers to keep you in the draw? Can you make them so angry at each other, so that the one thing they can agree on is that they want the other guy to have as few points as possible? Or, are they motivated by honour and trust? What other reasons might they have for keeping you alive? Again, it's hard to make suggestions without having a read of their press and understanding their personalities.

I don't mean write to each power and outright say "you should keep me alive because ....", I mean have a think about WHY they might keep you alive given what you know about their play and their motivations. Then, think about what you can do or say around the board to ensure that the powers who *can* kill you choose not to.

Player question: Can there be a 'valid' reason to keep one of these small countries alive, or will it always be about choosing to allow someone to survive for the sake of friendship or grudge towards someone else, even if that means a sub-optimal draw?

Great question!

I think the answer is absolutely yes - there are "valid" reasons (where valid means other than diplomatic). A clear example is where the minor power is required for the stalemate line. It's possible for positions to be reached where neither major power is able to pull back to allow the minor power to be eliminated without running a risk of a solo.

A player who I think is a master at forcing the way into the draw is Captainmeme, so I've asked Capt to write a guest post sharing some insight about forcing draws as minor powers.

It puts Russia and Turkey on nine SCs each. Maybe it isn't a stab?

I think maybe it is, but it's hard to tell for sure. SC count certainly isn't everything -, by a long shot though.

Mind you, something weird was going on with the bounce over Trieste last Fall too.

With Russia leaving the line up north vulnerable, I think it's clearly a stab. I can't see any other reason for giving up Berlin.

Yeah. There's something going on with Russia and England though. There's some sort of playing friendly (English Bal-Den in Fall '13?) in some fashion. Could just be good diplomacy from England convincing Russia to move away? I dunno. :-) [Admiral Ackbar: IT'S A TRAP!]

Maybe Russia thinks Germany will sit in Munich, in which case A War-Sil will be in time to prevent loss of Munich. And theoretically A Sev-Mos, A Mos-Lvn will hold StP for another year (until Den-Bal-Bot).

Of course the counter proposal is Mun-Ber loses Berlin, but I'm not convinced that's a good move for Germany to accept, at least, not in Spring.

Bump for disbands.

Well... I still can't tell. :-) Maybe it was one but it isn't any more?

If it is a stab, why not Sev-Arm?

If it isn't a stab, why are Sev (and maybe Rum) doing not travelling at maximum speed northwest?

Question for Prof.: Was there a clearly better set of orders for the Turkish fleets (given the assumed goal of clearing the Med and eventually acquiring Tunis) this season, or was it all a low odds guessing game?

I'm on holiday for the coming two weeks but I should have internet. I'm not requesting a pause, just some understanding in the unlikely event that I end up stalling the game a bit, since it's in WFO-mode.

Bump for retreats.

Bump for disbands. Bet you didn't see E/T going for a five way draw.